Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[InTheShadows]

Muscle memory is known to stick around for a really long time. That explains the old expression that you never forget how to ride a bicycle.

You will be able to operate a clutch just fine but you will marvel at how you happily put up with such a mindless chore for so many years while just accepting it as a necessary part of driving.

You might remember how to do it, but will your knee be able to handle it. I would be fine in normal driving situations. Stop and go traffic jam for 30 minutes. No way.

 

[Jack6591]

Daniel Burrus has developed a management thesis around the anticipatory extrapolation of hard trends.

Innovation & Anticipating the Future, with Daniel Burrus

Futurist Daniel Burrus joins us to talk about why anticipating the future can be the difference between companies that survive and that don't

www.3pillarglobal.com

Stating the obvious, Tesla, on multiple fronts, is at an inflection point. While I have not compiled information to support my thesis, I remain convinced those on the sell side accelerate their FUD based on Tesla’s prospects for success.

Considering these matters, I am preparing myself for two things in the coming months; astonishing breakthroughs by Tesla, and a tsunami of bovine feces from from the sell side. In the words of Margo Channing, “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy few months.”

 

[Zero CO2]

Me too! The ability we all have to fact check each other is amazing. I really appreciate how my own errors are quickly spotted!

TMC is my "Dead Poets Society" ..... we have all learned to ....seize the day ... i appreciate the challenges presented by the contributors on this site ... i constantly find myself learning new topics based on the "tough crowd" on this site ... it is my mental floss...

 

[Unpilot]

4 or is it 6 beers in? .......thoughts on the state of the market. First I wonder about total auto sales world wide.

Global car sales 2010-2020 | Statista

So 65-70 million cars sold. Then I think how many EV's sold?

EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database

So a little over 3 million.

Now I don't know how good you are at math...but it seems to me the addressable market is HUGE.

There is NO DEMAND issue for Tesla and wont be for a long long time.

Have a good weekend.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My projections show Tesla to be producing 4% of the global auto market by the end of 2023.

Does that match up with what you guys are seeing?

3.95% (in round numbers). But that's before Model 2...

Cheers!

 

[22522]

Let's kick this weekend off with something new from the Tesla Economist.

This episode supports several of the points made in my eariler post.

The best place to put my money because they are not playing games.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

it's amusing to watch ICE manufacturers try to add more technology to their cars. The user experience is so abysmal that most of the features will never get used. Tesla's lead in software, and user experience in general, is a huge differentiator. it is like DOS vs GUI on a PC

 

[Singuy]

When c

Given that the readership on this forum mostly likely skews to the wealthier half of the population we tend to hyperventilate over the S and X and the performance of the cars. Tesla's mission however must ultimately be about he lower cost variants in the European and Asian markets. These 2 cars will ACTUALLY move the needle a long way. I love the roadster and the cybertruck but slightly cringe at how they might delay these 2 cars. I have always told myself that Tesla needs to learn on these models before they move to these very price competitive segments.

So here is a question I would love to know the answer to: Can Tesla today make their cars for the same price as the best historic manufactures can (assuming of course it is approximately the same car). If not how many years behind are they? I know they are years ahead in software, batteries, drive train etc. but the raw cost of putting these cars together - how do they compare to, say, Toyota. If they are close how can they be beat? Hopefully their rethinking of how cars are put together (castings, integrated packs, no stalks) put them ahead even in this regard.

Tesla makes one of the cheapest, if not the cheapest 5 second car out of any manufacture with the most features. Even manufactures like Honda gets you to pay over 35k for a 5 second car with the Civic Type R and it doesn't come with many luxury features like pano sunroofs. Once we are talking about Luxury brands, Tesla is again the cheapest if you check boxes like pano roofs/navigation/premium sound system/ or any driving assist systems. In fact a BMW 3 series starting base price is more than a Model 3.

So yeah Tesla is very competitive.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We will likely never know, but I suspect that the reason for this is that TSLA/Elon are sending a huge shot across the bow of the German bureaucrats that continue to find reasons to slow the progress of Giga Berlin. There is zero demand problems in Germany and across Europe for a TSLA product that could be manufactured very soon in Germany by Germans at GF Berlin. But it has been one BS reason after another that GF Berlin construction has been delayed. IMO this stinks of ‘protectionism’ for the entire German ICE industry, who has already put one foot in their own grave with their corrupt and coordinated emissions scandal on a global scale. And now when Germany could be accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation - if only to counter the damage done by their legacy automakers, we continue to see reasons to delay GF Berlin while VW shouts about catching up soon. Hmmmm. Surprised? Not me.

If even a portion of this is true, what better way to ‘encourage’ better behavior and more support in Germany to accelerate GF Berlin than to start selling the very same model vehicles there that just so happen to be made in China - by the Chinese TSLA team that embraced the opportunity Elon/Tesla presented them, and then rapidly accelerated and expanded that opportunity to a level that allows them to become exporters of the finest vehicles made on the planet. There is little Germany can do to stop Tesla from simply replacing the cars that could have been made n Germany with cars made in China except accelerate the completion of GF Berlin and start making those same vehicles locally. And it has to really be a huge Insult to any stuffy Germans to see a ‘made in China’ label on something that could have - and should have been made in Germany. IMO what that ‘Made in China’ Tesla label on a vehicle sold in Germany means is ‘the time for Protectionism is over - you’ve done enough damage already - the time to transition the world to sustainable transportation and energy is right now......regardless of the source of the product’

Thank you Tesla China Team for helping pave a path to a more sustainable future!

Elon: "Forcing function".

Lol, Economists are such nerds. We need some Physicists to run things. Oh, wait...

Cheers!

 

[Discoducky]

You might be thinking of the Buick Envision, which is exported from China to the US. The Encore is made in Korea.

I saw a car carrier full of them heading south on I-5 yesterday just south of Tacoma. I looked it up as I couldn't believe my eyes. I didn't know those were coming into the US anymore.

We also saw several Model S truck loads heading north through out the trip down to Portland.

So excited to see those driving around Seattle soon!

 

[The Accountant]

Wu Wa's latest video (July 8) shows a very busy Shanghai factory.

see 7:30 mark

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 683005

Original PR here:

Tesla Energy, Brookfield and Dacra Announce the Development of Large-Scale Sustainable Neighborhood in Austin, Texas – Brookfield Asset Management Inc​

Cleantechnica article here:

Tesla Energy, Brookfield, & Dacra Are Developing A Large-Scale Sustainable Neighborhood In Austin, Texas | CleanTechnica​

30 mins ago — SunHouse at Easton Park. This is the first Tesla Solar neighborhood and will be the nation’s most sustainable residential community, according to the companies. Tesla’s v3 solar roof tiles and Powerwall 2 battery storage system will be installed in phases at homes in the SunHouse community that will be developed on land in Brookfield Residential’s Easton Park. The first phase of installation started last month with a sampling of homes under construction.​

Craig Robins, CEO of Dacra (a commercial and residential community developer):

“Our goal is to establish that fully-sustainable neighborhoods are not only viable, but the best practical and economical choice. Together with Brookfield and Tesla, we are trying to change the world by creating technology-driven, energy independent communities that make the world a better place.”​

Cheers!

 

[nativewolf]

Thus far Chinese exported cars have been much higher quality than most others. The Buick Envision has the lowest warransuppty claim rate among all Gm vehicles in the US. so I am told. Reports of MIC Tesla exports have been uniformly positive. It seems odd to suggest China quality might be lower since the truth is quite the opposite.

Reading comprehension or my poorly written note or it could be you've never had to support something made far from home and thus it is experience. All cars have failures, anyone reading the Tesla forums know this to be all too true. This is not a criticism of Chinese made cars, but a note that until now the EU cars were made in Freemont. They will have an entire other supply chain to take into account. It is a real issue, I don't know how big, but play this out 3 years: they get Berlin online in January and so you have a total of 4 months or so of mic MY cars sold, say 10k a month x 4 months and that's going to be a tiny spec in 3 years when Tesla will have sold 5 million cars. Dealing with 40k exceptions is going to be a PITA. Doesn't matter how well they were made, and I agree I think they will be made very well. They will still start failing over time and they will have some funny odds and ends. This does not have the appearance of a well thought out long laid strategic plan. This seems to be a short term tactical decision that may support several strategic objectives. It is the problem of dealing with exceptions too which I was referring.

 

[MP3Mike]

This is not a criticism of Chinese made cars, but a note that until now the EU cars were made in Freemont.

Not true. They have been selling MiC vehicles for months already. Maybe even a year.

 

[Artful Dodger]

200 day moving average is about 2 months from hitting the historical patch where we jumped from $400 to $880. That should rile the algos quite a bit. We're in the boring MM-owned summer doldrums, but exciting times are just ahead!

Need a map to go yomping:

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

JPMorgan Asia always seems much more bullish than JPMorgan USA:

The 2nd Model Y GA line coming online within 3 month increases Giga Shanghai nameplate annual production capacity by ~50% (300K Models 3, 250K Model Y NMC, +250k Model Y LFP in Q3). And yes, Tesla built the 3rd Stamping workshop to support this 3rd GA line (Chur!)

JPMorgan on Tesla “With this competitive offering (Model Y LFP), we believe Tesla Shanghai’s production volume (domestic sales and exports) will continue to ramp from the current ~33k units/month toward potentially 40k-60k units/month by year-end.” $TSLA​

Cheers!

P.S. I estimate Giga Shanghai's nameplate production capacity to reach 67K/mth by the end of 2021 (higher then the est'd range of 40-60K/mth from JPMorgan Asia-Pacific)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well one organization that was very aggressive in protecting the forest cardboard plantation (already zoned for a BMW auto plant which was never built) was from Bavaria and not local... just sayin'

FTFY.

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla just dropped prices here in NZ again by $3000 on the model 3 SR+ (about $2100 US dollars reduction)

Drive away price of $68,732, which includes 15% sales tax ($47.8k US dollars or $41,500 before sales tax).

 

[Beltsbear]

Tesla just dropped prices here in NZ again by $3000 on the model 3 SR+ (about $2100 US dollars reduction)

Drive away price of $68,732, which includes 15% sales tax ($47.8k US dollars or $41,500 before sales tax).

Do we know if this is a MIC Model 3? Lifepo?

 

[MC3OZ]

The 2nd Model Y GA line coming online within 3 month increases Giga Shanghai nameplate annual production capacity by ~50% (300K Models 3, 250K Model Y NMC, +250k Model Y LFP in Q3). And yes, Tesla built the 3rd Stamping workshop to support this 3rd GA line (Chur!)

JPMorgan on Tesla “With this competitive offering (Model Y LFP), we believe Tesla Shanghai’s production volume (domestic sales and exports) will continue to ramp from the current ~33k units/month toward potentially 40k-60k units/month by year-end.” $TSLA​

Cheers!

P.S. I estimate Giga Shanghai's nameplate production capacity to reach 67K/mth by the end of 2021 (higher then the est'd range of 40-60K/mth from JPMorgan Asia-Pacific)

Rob from TeslaDaily has the most credible explanation, Model Y production is lifting and to have enough cells for all the car bodies they need the LFP SR Y.

The availability of that SR Y in China, will reduce demand for the high priced variants in China. So they are shipped to Europe selling at higher prices and possibly higher margins, helping to maintain European demand, and seed future demand.

Bottom line is that the move is based on higher production volumes, and a realistic assessment of Chinese demand once a lower priced option is available.

Those LFP SR Ys are not shipping to Europe because Tesla thinks they can sell all of them in China and nearby markets and because shipping cost is a higher percentage of a lower priced car.