Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

Wow interesting - would be interesting to hear @avoigt ´s take especially on the law suits of legacy auto because of switching employees. Any chance of success? Doesn´t make sense to me, people can chose where they work for themselves, not?!

Happy to, I responded on Twitter already on that point making clear that legally there is simply no option for an employer to make an employee not change to Tesla nor would that cause any delays for Giga Berlin. Other points from the source Troy mentioned do not add up with my knowledge and sound not credible too. Some others do. My source for instance said 3 weeks ago that the Giga Berlin team does not know yet where the 4680 cells will come from (Kato, Austin, Suppliers?) which is not a surprise. Other very credible information I have the source from Troy does not or didn't inform about.

Rob Maurer pointed his skepticism out in his today podcast and elaborated e.g. on information about CT and MY from Austin. I fully agree to Robs points made.

With regards to the Supercharger opening for German Automakers, the story about the eGolf can't be true despite it won't make any sense for VW to test a vehicle that is not in production anymore. I have no doubts that German Automakers are in talks with Tesla but do not believe them to accept the offer as the terms and conditions have some toxic pills in the legal terms they may not want to comply with. That's in my opinion why the SC network is not used from other automakers. Making say, 2 V2 stalls in a 12 stall SC available for other manufacturers is IMO not a big issue and may help to create even more demand for Tesla.

Long story short, I would not trust Troys source too much and take it with a grain of salt. Some may be right others wrong.

Hope that helps

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm curious, how are the CT body panels bent? Is there a machine identified for this yet?

I’ve no idea how they’ll do them. There isn’t (or wasn’t) a brake press or the like that exists (existed) for bending pieces of SS of the size and type for the intended purpose at high volume mass production rates. But that’s not even the issue because obviously one could be built and programmed in the same way Idra invented and built the casting machines.

The issue is one of high volume mass production, which is always a very different kettle of fish than building a few prototypes or building 5 CT/wk. Automating the process to pump out hundreds of thousands of body panels in a timely fashion, and I’m specifically thinking of the huge, heavy and awkward body sides, is a conundrum and a half. Does there need to be any laser precuts to eliminate material at the bends so that the panel can be bent to create the clean, sharp bends? How do they automate that process to again pump out hundreds of thousands of pieces at rate.

It’s not a question if they can figure it out or not. I’ve never said nor doubted their ability to solve a problem. My whole point, as I specifically stated, was that CT isn’t ‘simple’ to manufacture. Folding huge, thick pieces of hard SS isn’t anything like paper origami.

When all is said and done, I expect to hear Elon say that getting there was a lot more difficult than originally understood.

 

[juanmedina]

It's called an industrial press brake. I imagine Tesla will modify some of the commercial ones that already exist to tailor it to their specific needs for each sheet panel and automate the process as much as possible. There are automated machines available so it just depends upon whether they see a way to improve what's out there.

There will be a lot of trial and error to get the bends right as it's a little bit of black magic bending cold-rolled stainless steel which has a direction to the grain. The resulting bend angle and spring-back will depend upon, amongst other things, the orientation of the bend to the grain. And I imagine some of the component panels will have bends at nearly right angles on the same panels. There is also- a certain amount of work hardening (strengthening) that happens as the metal is bent and the speed of the operation will impact this as well as the amount of spring back. It gets complicated really quickly (for something that seems as simple as bending sheet steel). Consistent, high quality sheet product will be critical to achieving consistent bend angles and spring back. This is important because they will be in a world of hurt if each panel comes off the brakes slightly different. Tesla is good at solving problems like this but there might be a certain amount of design changes early in the process as they adapt the way the parts are designed to fit together to any particularly stubborn challenges they encounter with either the consistency of the finished panels or the speed at which they can be produced.

I have faith the end product will be in another league compared to traditional trucks in terms of strength and stiffness to weight ratios because the design concept is mind-bogglingly brilliant. I suspect this is what they are working on now to assist the speed of production ramp and iron out the obvious problems before they set the lines up. My biggest concern is simply that it could take a lot of time and effort to refine the production process to the point it's cost-effective. But the best case scenario where the production ramp goes even better than anticipated and they can crank out thousands quickly and at relatively low cost is certainly an exciting possibility. Likely it will be somewhere in the middle. I'm heartened that they will be supplied with the cold-rolled steel from a new, state-of-the-art steel foundry that is nearby. Hopefully the production ramp goes well for their metal suppliers as well. Who knows what kind of new equipment the metal suppliers might be developing to increase quality and reduce costs?

These are particularly exciting times for vehicle manufacturing!

Spot on.

Traditional press brake bending is not currently considered a high volume manufacturing process because it takes a ton of time vs stamping which in the Cybertruck case will not work because they have such a thick gauge and hardened stainless. I would love to see what machine Tesla has designed to form the Cybertruck body, will they do all the bends at once some how to improve the production volume? or have many lines of press brakes? Also, tolerances are awful compared to what you can achieve compared to stamping specially after multiple bends.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417327744887627777

A pic says a 1K words.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Bezos is about to take off for “real” space, and the stream is mostly a commercial, like the Virgin one was (nothing wrong with that). Rivian gets a little love as the crew vehicle. Maybe not as dramatic as the NASA astronauts getting into Model Xs, but more folks going to space and backing electric vehicles is a good thing.

Even if our collective feelings are a little conflicted on Jeff (and Rivian), good luck to Blue Origin.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

The 10% sale of Bitcoin referred to above occurred in Q1 and was detailed in the 10Q. There's been no further sale of Bitcoin reported for Q2 so far. So unless there's a further sale reported on Monday, we can expect an impairment charge to still apply for Q2.

Please move this to the bitcoin thread, where mods move any post by me that is even SLIGHTLY negative about bitcoin. No discussion of bitcoin that is not pro-bitcoin is allowed in this thread apparently.

 

[CitizenKane]

Tesla Semi electric truck is finally about to go into production

Anyone able to confirm this? Sounds exciting if true.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In case anyone is wondering what's up with NVIDIA this morning, their 4:1 Stock Split took effect yesterday after the Close:

Stock Split Calendar - Investing.com https://www.investing.com › stock-split-calendar

P.S. NVDA is up 30% since the announcement on Apr 21, 2021.

 

[Paracelsus]

Tesla Semi electric truck is finally about to go into production

Anyone able to confirm this? Sounds exciting if true.

A friendly reminder of the 3 unwritten rules of TMC:
1. Be respectful of others - even when you don’t agree
2. No poetry
3. Never provide a link to an Electrek article written by Fred Lambert without revealing where that link will take anyone who clicks on it. There are many people here that don’t want to give Fred any clicks - even accidentally

I am going to go get another cup of coffee and sit in silence with some happy thoughts for a moment in hopes the vision of a Fred article from my screen will disappear

 

[CitizenKane]

A friendly reminder of the 3 unwritten rules of TMC:
1. Be respectful of others - even when you don’t agree
2. No poetry
3. Never provide a link to an Electrek article written by Fred Lambert without revealing where that link will take anyone who clicks on it. There are many people here that don’t want to give Fred any clicks - even accidentally

I am going to go get another cup of coffee and sit in silence with some happy thoughts for a moment in hopes the vision of a Fred article from my screen will disappear

Sorry, I am exceptionally bad at reading unwritten rules... But maybe someone actually has a comment about the subject matter rather than the source. That would be interesting to me at least.

 

[Don TLR]

A friendly reminder of the 3 unwritten rules of TMC:
1. Be respectful of others - even when you don’t agree
2. No poetry
3. Never provide a link to an Electrek article written by Fred Lambert without revealing where that link will take anyone who clicks on it. There are many people here that don’t want to give Fred any clicks - even accidentally

I am going to go get another cup of coffee and sit in silence with some happy thoughts for a moment in hopes the vision of a Fred article from my screen will disappear

Here is a semi truck update from teslariti you can view

The Tesla Semi is finally nearing production: report

The Tesla Semi is about two years delayed by now, but recent reports and rumors suggest that the all-electric Class 8 truck is indeed closing in on production. If these prove accurate, Tesla’s lineup this year would be boosted by what could very well be its most disruptive vehicle yet. When the...

www.teslarati.com

 

[ammulder]

A friendly reminder of the 3 unwritten rules of TMC:
1. Be respectful of others - even when you don’t agree
2. No poetry
3. Never provide a link to an Electrek article written by Fred Lambert without revealing where that link will take anyone who clicks on it. There are many people here that don’t want to give Fred any clicks - even accidentally

I am going to go get another cup of coffee and sit in silence with some happy thoughts for a moment in hopes the vision of a Fred article from my screen will disappear

How do you reconcile rule 3 with rule 1?

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.

In general, though, I’m not in favor of presenting this forum as a friendly, welcoming, respectful community, where you must demonstrate hatred for a relevant news outlet if you expect to be accepted.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Very light volume in the pre-market today:

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes​

Data last updated Jul 20, 2021 09:30 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$651.6 +5.38 (+0.83%)
Pre-Market Volume	289,829
Pre-Market High	$654.74 (04:31:48 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$650 (04:00:28 AM)

Hedgies tgt for the MMD today may be to stay in contact with the MA(200) which was 639.30 at the Open.

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

How do you reconcile rule 3 with rule 1?

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.

In general, though, I’m not in favor of presenting this forum as a friendly, welcoming, respectful community, where you must demonstrate hatred for a relevant news outlet if you expect to be accepted.

No hatred I could see...just a reminder to let people know what they are clicking on.

 

[thx1139]

Does anyone have the link to a UK insurance study couple months back which rated Tesla along with other cars. Tesla came in like 2nd I believe.

Also has anyone seen and had to debunk claims that 20% of Tesla's in Norway have gotten into accidents. I was presented with some Norwegian data and that just seems absolutely nuts. Media would have certainly ran with that.

 

[ammulder]

No hatred I could see...just a reminder to let people know what they are clicking on.

The effect would be different if the ‘rule‘ was the same for CNBC or the NYT… both of which seem a lot more anti-Tesla to me. I don’t see how singling out a particular site for this treatment is neutral.

Edit: I don’t mean to start or carry on a meta-fight. I just wish the default was to be welcoming to all. It’s fine with me if one holds a grudge; less fine if one asks others to share the grudge in order to participate here. If there’s no grudge, let‘s state a “rule” that applies to all links, without personal justifications. Anyway, I’ll leave it at that.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Tesla Semi electric truck is finally about to go into production

Anyone able to confirm this? Sounds exciting if true.

The Semi has been "about to go into production" since 2019 when it was supposed to go into production.

The article mentions Tesla is targeting 5 vehicles per week by the end of the year. If they started production at that rate *this week* and maintained it for the year...they'd make 120 of them in 2021. Yawn.

I am a bit curious to find out why Tesla won't disclose the payload capacity of the semi.

 

[S3XY]

The Semi has been "about to go into production" since 2019 when it was supposed to go into production.

The article mentions Tesla is targeting 5 vehicles per week by the end of the year. If they started that rate this week and maintained it for the year *and* started production this week...they'd make 120 of them in 2021. Yawn.

I am a bit curious to find out why Tesla won't disclose the payload capacity of the semi.

I bolded the flaw in your premise.

 

[Beltsbear]

It's called an industrial press brake. I imagine Tesla will modify some of the commercial ones that already exist to tailor it to their specific needs for each sheet panel and automate the process as much as possible. There are automated machines available so it just depends upon whether they see a way to improve what's out there.

There will be a lot of trial and error to get the bends right as it's a little bit of black magic bending cold-rolled stainless steel which has a direction to the grain. The resulting bend angle and spring-back will depend upon, amongst other things, the orientation of the bend to the grain. And I imagine some of the component panels will have bends at nearly right angles on the same panels. There is also- a certain amount of work hardening (strengthening) that happens as the metal is bent and the speed of the operation will impact this as well as the amount of spring back. It gets complicated really quickly (for something that seems as simple as bending sheet steel). Consistent, high quality sheet product will be critical to achieving consistent bend angles and spring back. This is important because they will be in a world of hurt if each panel comes off the brakes slightly different. Tesla is good at solving problems like this but there might be a certain amount of design changes early in the process as they adapt the way the parts are designed to fit together to any particularly stubborn challenges they encounter with either the consistency of the finished panels or the speed at which they can be produced.

I have faith the end product will be in another league compared to traditional trucks in terms of strength and stiffness to weight ratios because the design concept is mind-bogglingly brilliant. I suspect this is what they are working on now to assist the speed of production ramp and iron out the obvious problems before they set the lines up. My biggest concern is simply that it could take a lot of time and effort to refine the production process to the point it's cost-effective. But the best case scenario where the production ramp goes even better than anticipated and they can crank out thousands quickly and at relatively low cost is certainly an exciting possibility. Likely it will be somewhere in the middle. I'm heartened that they will be supplied with the cold-rolled steel from a new, state-of-the-art steel foundry that is nearby. Hopefully the production ramp goes well for their metal suppliers as well. Who knows what kind of new equipment the metal suppliers might be developing to increase quality and reduce costs?

These are particularly exciting times for vehicle manufacturing!

There is a technique of laser scoring and notching before the bending that Tesla will almost certainly use. The automation of this process is going to be hard work (of course) and super interesting.
The authors in this study know something of the process:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229411495_Studies_on_laser_bending_of_stainless_steel

 

[Singuy]

The Semi has been "about to go into production" since 2019 when it was supposed to go into production.

The article mentions Tesla is targeting 5 vehicles per week by the end of the year. If they started that rate this week and maintained it for the year *and* started production this week...they'd make 120 of them in 2021. Yawn.

I am a bit curious to find out why Tesla won't disclose the payload capacity of the semi.

Didn't they disclose it to be 80k lbs? Here is the Semi testing 75k payload.

Also who the heck extrapolate initial ramp numbers over the course of the year? That's TslaQ line of thinking.

Tesla Semi Prototype Spotted Hauling 75,000-Pound Load Through Northern California

California Highway Patrol members spoke to the truck's driver, who said the test mule was "exceeding" its 600-mile range estimate.

www.thedrive.com