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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Thanks for this. You obviously have far more varied experience with 500e than do I. Mine is entirely driving in Rio de Janeiro, and only in the densest parts of the city. We have no cold weather. It also has OTA updates via subscription or cellular. I have not actually experienced one of those. We also have no Tesla here. If we had Tesla I would have the Model 3 I ordered back in 2016 (Tesla keeps the reservation listed). i have adored my three Tesla, especially my new Plaid.of course all those have been in the US.

in my rant I neglected to point out that all those choices are ones likely to be made when a
Tesla is not available, or inappropriate for some reason. Almost all of us understate the advantage of vast distribution to purchase decisions. Tesla is expanding quickly, but is already proving that market share increase in established markets is far faster than is entry to new markets. There is clear exception to that rule in physically small markets, like Dubai and Israel.

Of course gross margin (GM) and even more important,Free Cash Flow(FCF) are crucially important. Nearly all major OEM’s have more leeway due to their established history. None, zero, nenhum of those have anything like a very high growth rate coupled with increasing GM and FCF. That combination is the magic. Magic because nobody else even imagines such a thing is possible.

If I think that, why not mention it In my rant? Because all the others can exist and begin to compete with new approaches fir a long time. That is not The same as being highly profitable or even having positive cash flow.
Ah, OK, this is interesting in different ways. I didn't know you had no Teslas at all...what a bummer. I wonder if OTA for Switzerland is not available out of neglect (from FIAT) or because of the legislature. I have the impression that so called "competition" is a lot of talk, not so much walk. It's like Tesla is voluntarily sandbagging what their cars are capable of. You really have to see it to believe it. Maybe they are fully aware that demand is anyways through the roof, and the are far away from being able to satisfy said demand.

That being said, thanks to the poster who pointed out the outstandig ROIC Tesla has. This (ROIC steadily rising), the stellar demand, the UI / Software / FSD advantages et cetera are highly visible for us, not so much for people consuming MSM. The OEM's are toast, Tesla will be huge. We will have years to accumulate during dips and or play options and in the end, we all be really, really freaken rich. Cheers to the longs... BTW I did my thing to add to a great Q3, 2 Powerwalls finally installed ; )
 
Portfolio briefly passed the 8 digit filter yesterday:)

1st X shares 2013
Last tranche of shares converted all AAPL and MSFTto TSLA after S&P addition
All in TSLA except for ~ 5% in current 401Ks

Around 30-35 times principal

It’s been a wild ride…cheers!!

Goal is to reach 5X shares with CC side hustle;)
Took you long enough. 🙄😉
 


  • Mr. Diaz never worked for Tesla. He was a contract employee who worked for Citistaff and nextSource.
  • Mr. Diaz worked as an elevator operator at the Fremont factory for nine months, from June 2015 to March 2016.
  • In addition to Mr. Diaz, three other witnesses (all non-Tesla contract employees) testified at trial that they regularly heard racial slurs (including the n-word) on the Fremont factory floor. While they all agreed that the use of the n-word was not appropriate in the workplace, they also agreed that most of the time they thought the language was used in a “friendly” manner and usually by African-American colleagues. They also told the jury about racist graffiti in the bathrooms, which was removed by our janitorial staff;
  • There was no witness testimony or other evidence that anyone ever heard the n-word used toward Mr. Diaz.
  • Mr. Diaz made written complaints to his non-Tesla supervisors. Those were well-documented in the nine months he worked at our factory. But he didn’t make any complaints about the n-word until after he was not hired full-time by Tesla – and after he hired an attorney.
  • The three times that Mr. Diaz did complain about harassment, Tesla stepped in and made sure responsive and timely action was taken by the staffing agencies: two contractors were fired and one was suspended (who had drawn a racially offensive cartoon). Mr. Diaz himself testified that he was “very satisfied” with the results of one of the investigations, and he agreed that there was follow-up on each of his complaints.
  • Even though Mr. Diaz now complains about racial harassment at Fremont, at the time he said he was being harassed, he recommended to his son and daughter – while they were all living together in the same home – that they work at Tesla with him.
 
Interesting.
This will reduce the need to carry some raw material inventory on Tesla's books if the inventory is held by the supplier just a few yards/meters from Tesla's receiving dock. Streamlines logistics and positive to Cash Flow.
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Although this technique has long been used, as in Panasonic in GF Sparks, this one appears to be larger in scale, maybe because Tesla directly has arranged the real estate, and is planning well ahead of actual production. In Shanghai CATL is building adjacent to GF Shanghai, but in land that seems to have been arranged directly by CATL. Austin already has a massive area and other facilities are under construction, some with known purposes. Thus far we really do not know what is planned in all that space.

There seems to be a significant revision in any prior iterations of JIT in that Tesla now is coordinated to a seemingly unprecedented degree in actual manufacturing technology, most obviously with IDRA/LK and with SpaceX materials suppliers. Perhaps the most obvious examples of that are in Steel (e.g. Steel Dynamics in Sinton, TX, 175 miles south, but a steel producer really needs the port access) , Aluminum, and sensor suppliers. Then there is FSD 3 and FSD 4 chips, both by Samsung, which is building a new plant in Taylor, TX roughly 45 minutes from Austin GF.

There are departures from this kind of approach and others that seem similar on the surface. Most of the other OEM's tend towards Tier One supplier agreement, in which the Tier One does nearly all the R&D and then produces to specifications from the OEM, that are themselves commonly quite general. The Tier One usually delivers completed assemblies of some kind to the OEM. There is little of that with Tesla, which usually designs exactly what to supply and how to make it. The suppliers which fail end out being replaced, often by Tesla itself. (probable exception to that rule: CATL, which supplies completed packs to Tesla in Shanghai.

There will be dozens of other examples that we will understand better as both Austin and Berlin ramp and as Shanghai and Berlin complete their own designs. Without much doubt Tesla supplier arrangements for those vehicles will be broader than any have been before.

This is all quantitatively and qualitatively different than Model S in 2012, when Mercedes S class componetry was overt. The Model S of 2021 only resembles the 2012 version in shape. How is that relevant?
That is fundamental to the Tesla continuous improvement fo hardware and software. Suppliers are all required to adapt to constant change in whatever they supply, with only the promise of continuing growth to sustain them. Thus, the supplier proximity and adaptability are crucial.

All this shows how much the Panasonic experience has taught Tesla. It seems the experience has taught Panasonic too, since they're building a 4680 line themselves, as are others.

What this process will show is the continuing reduction of WIP and raw materials inventories, even as Tesla dominates the entire supply chain structure.

Soon Tesla will be in shipping both land and sea. Just how they will (are) doing that is not yet clear, but they'll need huge improvement to reduce both raw materials and finished goods inventories.

Just how much can free cash flow increase in the next couple of years? It will be amazing. It already is.
 
This is important: the previous trading day with a lower percentage of Retail short-selling was Dec 16, 2020. That's right, two days before the S&P 500 addition of TSLA.

Today, only 31.5% of TSLA trades were reported as Short by FINRA. That's less Retail shorting than every trading day since Dec 16, 2020 (which had 29.8%).

Those two days are the lowest Retail shorting in the past 20 months. My daily database goes back to Jan 30, 2020 (Mean: 46.9% Std Dev: 8.9%).

What does this mean? It means the big drop today was NOT caused be Retail shorting. It was Market Makers (MMs) and Hedge Funds, very likely using their Options Market Maker's exemption to the SEC's prohibition against naked short selling (Reg. SHO).

The tail doesn't just wag the dog these days; it only visits the dog for holidays. @Papafox

#SEC #DOURJOB
Great to hear. I'm totally fine with MM's digging themselves shorter as we careen toward blowout 3Q and 4Q numbers. Thursday could blow the top off too. Exciting times.
 


  • Mr. Diaz never worked for Tesla. He was a contract employee who worked for Citistaff and nextSource.
  • Mr. Diaz worked as an elevator operator at the Fremont factory for nine months, from June 2015 to March 2016.
  • In addition to Mr. Diaz, three other witnesses (all non-Tesla contract employees) testified at trial that they regularly heard racial slurs (including the n-word) on the Fremont factory floor. While they all agreed that the use of the n-word was not appropriate in the workplace, they also agreed that most of the time they thought the language was used in a “friendly” manner and usually by African-American colleagues. They also told the jury about racist graffiti in the bathrooms, which was removed by our janitorial staff;
  • There was no witness testimony or other evidence that anyone ever heard the n-word used toward Mr. Diaz.
  • Mr. Diaz made written complaints to his non-Tesla supervisors. Those were well-documented in the nine months he worked at our factory. But he didn’t make any complaints about the n-word until after he was not hired full-time by Tesla – and after he hired an attorney.
  • The three times that Mr. Diaz did complain about harassment, Tesla stepped in and made sure responsive and timely action was taken by the staffing agencies: two contractors were fired and one was suspended (who had drawn a racially offensive cartoon). Mr. Diaz himself testified that he was “very satisfied” with the results of one of the investigations, and he agreed that there was follow-up on each of his complaints.
  • Even though Mr. Diaz now complains about racial harassment at Fremont, at the time he said he was being harassed, he recommended to his son and daughter – while they were all living together in the same home – that they work at Tesla with him.
Tesla used to have an “Anti-Handbook Handbook” to address HR matters?

That’s better than the “Not-a-Flamethrower” flamethrower!
 
This is important: the previous trading day with a lower percentage of Retail short-selling was Dec 16, 2020. That's right, two days before the S&P 500 addition of TSLA.

Today, only 31.5% of TSLA trades were reported as Short by FINRA. That's less Retail shorting than every trading day since Dec 16, 2020 (which had 29.8%).

Those two days are the lowest Retail shorting in the past 20 months. My daily database goes back to Jan 30, 2020 (Mean: 46.9% Std Dev: 8.9%).

What does this mean? It means the big drop today was NOT caused be Retail shorting. It was Market Makers (MMs) and Hedge Funds, very likely using their Options Market Maker's exemption to the SEC's prohibition against naked short selling (Reg. SHO).

The tail doesn't just wag the dog these days; it only visits the dog for holidays. @Papafox

#SEC #DOURJOB
I could look each of these up of course, but, for lay-person TMC members like me, could we have a TSLA-specific glossary posted somewhere? I have a vague idea of what a "Market Maker" is, for example, but it would help many since there are a dozen terms used here frequently that aren't common knowledge.

"Chair" - Kinda like it took me a year of watching the NBA before I figured out what a "dime" was!
HODL (I know this one)
IV
etc.

@Right_Said_Fred and @AudubonB?
 
Wouldn’t that be epic? Sorry, not making those anymore. But - we need them. Meh. We can sell you these, though. But -

I wonder how long the contracts run or if they’re simply for a specified number? Logically, once the contracts are filled, chip makers are free to move on. Or, the penalty for not fulfilling contracts is cheaper than trying to fulfill them at this point. Hmm…the 😈 voice in my head is laughing manically right now.

AFAIK, the semiconductor always works like this: cutting edge technology is used for making the top value products: CPUs, GPUs, i.e. Anything that can become a more valuable product by having a bigger transistor budget (or higher speed, or lower power). Producing these chips pays for these fabs. When these products migrate to even newer technologies, these fabs are largely depreciated, and it becomes economical to produce chips with lesser requirements (I guess that most of the chips currently fall in this category) in these fabs. So basically nobody builds new fabs with old tech. Which is what the legacy car industry now wants so that they don’t have to change their designs (avoiding the cost of redesigning hardware and adapting software to the newer chips). This won’t happen, the chip manufacturers know that this is a temporary problem that will be fixed in time by building less cars with those old chips.
 
99307688-9FB5-494E-AFFE-EFFB18BED650.png

Take off
 
Slow and Steady Wins the Race ;)

Still not thinking about Mountains and Islands .. so you in a different league ...

+Came in stronger than ATH, due to FUD created buying opportunities and ability to close all Jan 2022 CC's at like 95% profits ;)
For a mid 7 digit number we could help you find a nice mountain here in VA, forested-with the state's premier sustainable hardwood management firm ensuring ecological sustainability, asset protection and income...you know in case you're bored owning TSLA. Warning- sustainable hardwood ownership will not produce incomes similar to owning TSLA. OTOH, who doesn't need a forest bath and a space to renew one's soul...

It still won't make as much money as TSLA.
 
Why do you believe the undercarriage is stronger in compression? Like most metals, aluminum has higher tensile strength than compressive strength and compression also has the challenge of buckling. Edit: It's also possible the undercarriage is designed to collapse and absorb energy in a collision which would be a compression case, not a tension case.

This might help:


"Consequently, by convention, the compressive strength of aluminum is considered equal to that of tension. However, the products derived from die-casting have a lower tensile strength than the compressive strength."

Basically, it's how the aluminum is shaped and used that determines it's strength. With the Cybertruck, the castings are pieced together end-to-end with the battery in the middle and thus will not be able to handle large tensile forces without the stiffness of the stainless steel of the superstructure above (which will be extremely stiff end to end)..
 
With Tesla likely to get $2b in profit this quarter (which is $8b annualized), here is the 10 year average of profits at other automakers (2011-2020):
(adjusting for inflation would increase these figures by about 10%)

$16,079m (6.4%) Toyota
$11,621m (4.6%) Volkswagen
$8,122m (4.8%) Daimler
$6,905m (6.5%) BMW
$6,110m (4.1%) GM
$5,824m (4.0%) Ford
$5,008m (4.0%) Honda
$2,740m (2.6%) Nissan
$2,685m (2.2%) Stellantis/FCA* (only 7 years)

Remember, almost none of these automakers are beating inflation for revenue growth.

I think Tesla will get $12 billion next year, which is already more than the 10 year average for VW!

By 2023 it should easily be the world's most profitable automaker. I suspect after 2025 it will be making more profit than all of these automakers put together.

(EDIT- added in average net income as a percentage of average revenues in parenthesis)
 
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