Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Also, the exoskeleton is folded not stamped. It's too thick to stamp. It's not really a full exoskeleton either, since it's attached to the cast aluminum undercarriage and the structural battery.

If you think about it, the Cybertruck is a full exoskeleton due to the fact that the undercarriage is also part of the exterior of the vehicle. Also, the cast aluminum undercarriage is strong in compressive forces but not in tension (from end to end) so the folded high-strength stainless upper will be doing most of the heavy lifting with regard to the 3500 lb. passenger and cargo capacity. It's a full exoskeleton like no other high GVWR vehicle before it.

 

[lascavarian]

Software development will undoubtedly remain in California. A significant amount of R&D will remain, including the all important FSD team and the AI team.

Manufacturing should have left California yesterday, except for the fact that even at Tesla speed a factory doesn't just spring up out of the ground. In the long run, I don't see Tesla continuing to operate Fremont as a factory. As an R&D facility, and for small production of low volume vehicles like Roadster, absolutely. Tesla can't leave the state completely, there is nowhere on Earth with the concentration of talented software engineers that SV has. But Tesla's manufacturing operations are already condemned in California, it just takes a long time in heavy industry for the final bell to toll.

Seems like a good place to figure out scaling up robot production.

Vehicles and Starbase in TX. Robotics and AI in CA where the dreamin‘ is easy. Profit!

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla - UK - September is normally UK's biggest month as number plates change (important for resale price). Tesla Model 3 top seller in biggest month!

[Edit: Tesla Model 3 is over 3% of UK sales in September 2021] - listed in "Other Imports" as Tesla is not a member of SMMT (manufacturers association)

BEV - battery Electric Vehicles - 15.2% of market compared to 6.7% a year ago. Diesel really fell - from 14.3% last year to 5.0% in Sep 21

Car Registrations

SMMT is the country’s primary source of data on the motor industry. Click here for the SMMT car registrations data published monthly

www.smmt.co.uk

Spoiler: Tables-Images

 

[LST]

Fiat 500
Fiat e-Ducato
Of course those are sold in Europe and some in other markets, even Brazil.
The Fiat 500 will never go to the US, probably, but is a brilliant BEV ground up with quite spectacular technology including level 2 autopilot, like aid that works even in Rio de Janeiro horrendous traffic, excellent Tom-Tom based mapping, voice recognition that actually works as well and Tesla (in both Portuguese and English I've used it) and so on. That is their first 100%ground up and it is proving very popular.

Official Global Website

Welcome to the Official Global Website of Stellantis, a leading global automaker and provider of innovative mobility solutions.

www.stellantis.com

The problem with our enthusiasm is that many of us imagine it is impossible for others to move quickly to adopt BEV and do so very well.
Check out a review or two of the Fiat 500 and the Peugeot 208 e-GT.



Just take a trip to Europe or visit me in Rio de Janeiro, drive the new Fiat 500 and tell me again how they're going broke. Of course that requires understanding what urban mobility is all about most of the world.



Now to be serious. Ford has left markets that were core to the success of the 1920's and half a century after, US cars, Brazil, once their largest market outside the US. They cannot move quickly enough. GM surrendered n Europe after success since 1920, leaving one country after another, then surrendering in Europe. The Japanese and Korean makers are bizarrely lagging and largely ignored the sets fo their amazing successes.

Suddenly there is Tesla and a glimmer fo Europe and not too much else but...
China, the world's leader and most innovative in BEV's. Brands like JAC, Chery and Geely are joined by the upstarts like Great Wall's WEY, NIO, Xpeng and more.

I find your post always very much worth to read and super insigtful, but here I have to disagree, when it comes to praise the Fiat 500e.
Disclaimer: Owner of all new Fiat 500e, 2019 Roadster Signature, on our third Model S (2020), wife has a 2019 Model 3. Investor since IPO. It's true there is not only Tesla, others are waking up too, but....

In short: The Fiat 500 is a total and utter POS, it just highlights how far behind they are.

Long version: We replaced our Fiat 500 ICE with a Fiat 500 BEV, meant as a city car, but town to town should be feasible. First: Range has been advertised as 360 km, fully charged it states 260km in Range mode, effective range 190km with careful driving. We were told, ah, you know that's because of the cold weather (we bought it in Feb 2021), in summer it will get better.. it did not. User Interface: A total embarrassement. You have to press the brake, push the "On" button, wait for several sec's, then press D, or R while still pressing the brake. If you would lift your foot of the brake too early, the car won't budge. Preheating / Climate control: There is an app, where you could technically preheat the car, you have to set up a routine and save it. You cannot just turn on the heat or AC. OK, we did set it to 7am, what happened: At 7am the alarm of the car goes off, and it was not possible to stop it from waking up the whole neighburhood. After this incident: All the settings were back to Italian (we have it in German), and the car would not start. Had to get towed... to have a software update at the garage. OTA is not available.... Later this year we had to bring it in again for an update, it took two (yes two!!!) days for the garage to have it made..."we can only update one car after an other"--sic !!! I could go on and on.. often I just wonder: Why did they at least not copy some of the UI from Tesla ???

So to sum it up for the same price as a Model 3 SR, with double the interior space, double the range you get a nice looking city car, with a decent ride quality, a form factor that is convenient for EU/Swiss innercities, decent build quality, and a lot of cringeworthy Software /UI f**ups.

It might be a lemon, and I know anecdotal evidence means not a lot. Alas these first hand experiences made me be even more bullish on TSLA, and more disappointed with the so called competition, because I also want to see more and more BEV's on the road, and Tesla can not satisfy all needs nor consumer desire.--End of rant.

 

[Chocochip]

A quick breakdown of what the latest UK new car registration numbers mean for Tesla (new record, who dis?) and the BEV market share:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445320345196638211

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA up about 2x macros with modest volume in early Pre-market trading:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
14,535.25 +73.00 (+0.50%)
As of 5:20AM EDT. Market open.

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Oct 05, 2021 05:40 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$790.05 +8.52 (+1.09%)
Pre-Market Volume	61,277
Pre-Market High	$792 (05:09:52 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$783.37 (04:01:22 AM)

 

[RobStark]

Rivian filings hint at $10k autonomous driving option, software subscription details

A recently published Form S-1 filing from Rivian Automotive Inc. to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hinted at the EV maker’s plans for an autonomous driving system, as well as a potential subscription model. In the S-1 filing, Rivian estimated its lifetime revenue (LTR) potential...

www.teslarati.com

Now this make FSD for 10K looks like a bargain. I have absolutely no idea what capabilities Rivian is offering. Any clue? Mobileye? Nvidia?

This is the hardware for Driver+

• 10 exterior cameras help with day-to-day and higher-speed driving, while a camera inside monitors for driver alertness.
• 12 ultrasonic sensors provide 360° close-range coverage.
• 4 corner radars and 1 forward radar enable more complex maneuvers and monitoring, like lane changes and rear-cross traffic.
• An interior camera monitors driver attention on the road, enabling hands-free driving. If the system detects your attention drift away from the road, you’ll be automatically prompted to place your hands on the wheel to continue driving with Driver+ engaged.

Rivian says they are doing their own software. It will launch as a Level 2 system and with software updates they think it can become a Level 3 system with current hardware.

At launch

Driving Assist: Help with the manual driving tasks when you want it.

• Highway Assist: Automatic steering, braking and acceleration on select highways while engaged.
• Adaptive Cruise Control: Set your speed and automatically accelerate or brake, adjusting speed to keep an appropriate distance from vehicles in front of you.
• Lane Change Assist: Assisted lane changes on the highway.

Active Safety Assist: Collision warning, alerts and preventative action.

Lane Safety

• Lane Keep Assist: Helps steer you back into your lane if you unintentionally drift close to or over a lane marker without a turn signal.
• Lane Departure Warning: Warns you if you drift too close or cross lane markers without a turn signal on.
• Blind Spot Warning: Detects vehicles in your blind spots and warns you if you indicate with your turn signal that you are going move into the occupied lane.

Light Safety

• Automatic High Beams: Automatically switches the headlights from high to low beams when a vehicle is detected ahead.

Parking and reverse

• Rear Cross-Traffic Warning: Alerts you to traffic and people approaching from the side when backing up.
• Park Assist: A 360° detection system designed to help sense and alert you to objects.
• Trailer Assist: Helps with reverse maneuvers while you have a trailer attached.

Collision Mitigation

• Forward Collision Warning: Warns you of potential collisions with people and cars ahead.
• Automatic Emergency Braking: Applies the brakes to help mitigate or prevent a collision.
• Dynamic Brake Support: Supports your braking to help mitigate or prevent a collision.

Definition of Level 3 autonomous system

Level 3 is known as conditional driving automation. It uses various driver assistance systems and artificial intelligence to make decisions based on changing driving situations around the vehicle. People inside the vehicle do not need to supervise the technology, which means they can engage in other activities. However, a human driver must be present, alert, and able to take control of the vehicle at any time, especially in the case of an emergency due to system failure.

No, you still cannot take a nap while sitting in the driver’s seat of a Level 3 conditionally autonomous vehicle.

 

[The Accountant]

Interesting.
This will reduce the need to carry some raw material inventory on Tesla's books if the inventory is held by the supplier just a few yards/meters from Tesla's receiving dock. Streamlines logistics and positive to Cash Flow.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445326271848800261

 

[Prunesquallor]

Regarding Today’s Jury Verdict | Tesla

www.tesla.com

This is very enlightening, but makes the jury verdict even more confusing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445100212926787587

 

[HG Wells]

Lots of bolts have burst into flames.
Tesla's are built with hundreds of bolts.

I wonder what the connection is ?

 

[hacer]

If you think about it, the Cybertruck is a full exoskeleton due to the fact that the undercarriage is also part of the exterior of the vehicle. Also, the cast aluminum undercarriage is strong in compressive forces but not in tension (from end to end) so the folded high-strength stainless upper will be doing most of the heavy lifting with regard to the 3500 lb. passenger and cargo capacity. It's a full exoskeleton like no other high GVWR vehicle before it.

Why do you believe the undercarriage is stronger in compression? Like most metals, aluminum has higher tensile strength than compressive strength and compression also has the challenge of buckling. Edit: It's also possible the undercarriage is designed to collapse and absorb energy in a collision which would be a compression case, not a tension case.

 

[elasalle]

Portfolio briefly passed the 8 digit filter yesterday

1st X shares 2013
Last tranche of shares converted all AAPL and MSFTto TSLA after S&P addition
All in TSLA except for ~ 5% in current 401Ks

Around 30-35 times principal

It’s been a wild ride…cheers!!

Goal is to reach 5X shares with CC side hustle

 

[TheWalkingDad]

you left the Iron out of LiFePo4. Without the Fe it's just Lithium phosphate.

and I could forgive anyone for not expecting the twist that is Tesla taking what was largely considered a mediocre battery chemistry and turning it into something to use in large quantities.

You'd have to be a LiFePo4 fanatic to have expected it to see much use in cars other than as a replacement for Lead Acid 12v batteries.

To say it is mediocre is not accurate. It has wide scale use in the Solar DIY community so the utility value is much higher. The higher cycle life and constant voltage across SoC also has advantages over traditional lithium ion.

The limitation of the lithium iron phosphate is the lack of ability to charge in cold weather and the weight of the pack comparably (it is heavy). But they also do not have the explosive danger of traditional lithium ion batteries.

Tesla also has found ways around the cold charging problem and weight by only using it in smaller and lower mileage vehicles. They were able to pivot to another battery technology in order to resolve any shortages while working on perfecting 4680s.

I would have expected someone like Dr. Burry to do some better research before publishing such drivel. But all you have to keep in mind is that he's trying to protect his short position.

 

[jbcarioca]

I find your post always very much worth to read and super insigtful, but here I have to disagree, when it comes to praise the Fiat 500e.
Disclaimer: Owner of all new Fiat 500e, 2019 Roadster Signature, on our third Model S (2020), wife has a 2019 Model 3. Investor since IPO. It's true there is not only Tesla, others are waking up too, but....

In short: The Fiat 500 is a total and utter POS, it just highlights how far behind they are.
…

It might be a lemon, and I know anecdotal evidence means not a lot. Alas these first hand experiences made me be even more bullish on TSLA, and more disappointed with the so called competition, because I also want to see more and more BEV's on the road, and Tesla can not satisfy all needs nor consumer desire.--End of rant.

Thanks for this. You obviously have far more varied experience with 500e than do I. Mine is entirely driving in Rio de Janeiro, and only in the densest parts of the city. We have no cold weather. It also has OTA updates via subscription or cellular. I have not actually experienced one of those. We also have no Tesla here. If we had Tesla I would have the Model 3 I ordered back in 2016 (Tesla keeps the reservation listed). i have adored my three Tesla, especially my new Plaid.of course all those have been in the US.

in my rant I neglected to point out that all those choices are ones likely to be made when a
Tesla is not available, or inappropriate for some reason. Almost all of us understate the advantage of vast distribution to purchase decisions. Tesla is expanding quickly, but is already proving that market share increase in established markets is far faster than is entry to new markets. There is clear exception to that rule in physically small markets, like Dubai and Israel.

How did you get through that entire rant without mentioning other manufacturers gross margins? …nd it doesn't look to me like they will be able to, they can't compete.

Of course gross margin (GM) and even more important,Free Cash Flow(FCF) are crucially important. Nearly all major OEM’s have more leeway due to their established history. None, zero, nenhum of those have anything like a very high growth rate coupled with increasing GM and FCF. That combination is the magic. Magic because nobody else even imagines such a thing is possible.

If I think that, why not mention it In my rant? Because all the others can exist and begin to compete with new approaches fir a long time. That is not The same as being highly profitable or even having positive cash flow.

 

[22522]

Why do you believe the undercarriage is stronger in compression? Like most metals, aluminum has higher tensile strength than compressive strength and compression also has the challenge of buckling. Edit: It's also possible the undercarriage is designed to collapse and absorb energy in a collision which would be a compression case, not a tension case.

If the undercarriage is a bunch of battery blocks held together with adhesive at varying operating temperatures and corresponding properties, does that support compression better than tension?

I have not done the math and would need help with the complex geometry composite structure. In the limit, water and o-rings are treated as largely incompressible. But not so good/stiff in tension. In other words, the stiffness mismatch in tension may make the batteries disappear from the math.

This is just a guess as I am trying to figure things out from the same starting point as you stated.

 

[scaesare]

Google failed me and following this company since the days of double digit stock prices I don't remember such. Can you enlighten me?

Hmm... a quick search doesn't turn up anything for me either... except another post from me a few years ago saying something about it.

I've relatively certain it was mentioned here. Of course I could be going senile...

 

[UncaNed]

Since its after hours, let me share my joy of having won the ticket lottery for the Grünheide Fair on Saturday at Tesla. I'm going with one son and two Grandsons.

Anyone care to meet?

View attachment 717847

So happy for you!

I hope they have Grohmann robots making cotton candy and candy apples.

 

[mongo]

Hmm... a quick search doesn't turn up anything for me either... except another post from me a few years ago saying something about it.

I've relatively certain it was mentioned here. Of course I could be going senile...

Is this what you were thinking of?
The Longest-Range Electric Vehicle Now Goes Even Farther

These updates include new wheel bearings and a few new tire designs for certain variants to improve range, ride, and steering.

 

[Krugerrand]

Chipmakers to carmakers: Time to get out of the semiconductor Stone Age​

Not sure if this Fortune article from Sept 17 was mentioned here. It talks about Intel chief going to German auto show to addressing complaints about lack of auto chips.

“It just makes no economic or strategic sense,” said Gelsinger, who came to the auto show to convince carmakers they need to let go of the distant past. “Rather than spending billions on new ‘old’ fabs, let’s spend millions to help migrate designs to modern ones.”

Chip makers to carmakers: time to get out of the semiconductor Stone Age

Intel, Qualcomm try to wean auto companies from dependence on obsolete technology

fortune.com

It sounds like Intel and others might never build new capacity to make obsolete chips that auto makers need in greater volume, and the chip crisis that the legacy auto OEMs are facing will only be completely solved once their suppliers solves what Tesla had to do.

Quoting Elon tweet from Oct 4th on the Tesla chip conversion effort: “This was *extremely* difficult. Huge props to Tesla engineering, supply chain, production & key suppliers.”

Tesla successfully overcame the chip shortage problem and delivers 73% increase in Q3 volume YoY due to talents available and speed of execution both internally and with their suppliers.

Wouldn’t that be epic? Sorry, not making those anymore. But - we need them. Meh. We can sell you these, though. But -

I wonder how long the contracts run or if they’re simply for a specified number? Logically, once the contracts are filled, chip makers are free to move on. Or, the penalty for not fulfilling contracts is cheaper than trying to fulfill them at this point. Hmm…the voice in my head is laughing manically right now.