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Now this make FSD for 10K looks like a bargain. I have absolutely no idea what capabilities Rivian is offering. Any clue? Mobileye? Nvidia?

$5,500 in yearly costs for "infotainment, connectivity, diagnostics, and other services".....................good luck Rivian. You're gonna piss off a lot of customers trying that.

They say "based on publicly disclosed industry benchmarks"..............um what other company is charging $5,500 for "infotainment, connectivity, diagnostics, and other services"?

Edit: Disregard. $5,500 is over 10 years, not annual.
 
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$5,500 in yearly costs for "infotainment, connectivity, diagnostics, and other services".....................good luck Rivian. You're gonna piss off a lot of customers trying that.

They say "based on publicly disclosed industry benchmarks"..............um what other company is charging $5,500 for "infotainment, connectivity, diagnostics, and other services"?
Slow your roll there just a second. They say that the $5,500 is costs over 10 years. So only $550/year or $45/month. (That is still quite a bit but far from the ~$450/month you were suggesting.)
 
California is 6th largest economy in the world and pretty much put Tesla on the map. Might be a good idea to keep some operations here.

Tesla will keep some operations here (selectively).

Given the unfriendly business climate they will think twice, three times before fulfilling a requisition here.

Where the puck is headed is more important than where the puck had been.

The Roman Empire fell, the Persian empire fell.

Any new hire is a $127 million ticking time bomb waiting to go off.

No one disagrees that Tesla should have good working practices. But what is good in Tesla's eyes might not be in the eyes of a kook judge and a kook 7/12 jury panel.

The sooner Tesla is gone from California, the better.
 
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Yeah I was gonna delete the post since I stopped reading the article too soon but I'll just leave it now ;)
All HW and SW goes out of date after a while - like AP 1.0. It took years for FSD to become what it is now and it is not even finish. Tesla even upgrade the HW for early FSD. I assume Rivian will be at best the same long wait time + HW upgrade. I hope their customer has as much faith as Tesla customer has for FSD. Quite a big leap without even seeing the Autonomous driving capability in action - for 10K.
 
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California is 6th largest economy in the world and pretty much put Tesla on the map. Might be a good idea to keep some operations here.
Software development will undoubtedly remain in California. A significant amount of R&D will remain, including the all important FSD team and the AI team.

Manufacturing should have left California yesterday, except for the fact that even at Tesla speed a factory doesn't just spring up out of the ground. In the long run, I don't see Tesla continuing to operate Fremont as a factory. As an R&D facility, and for small production of low volume vehicles like Roadster, absolutely. Tesla can't leave the state completely, there is nowhere on Earth with the concentration of talented software engineers that SV has. But Tesla's manufacturing operations are already condemned in California, it just takes a long time in heavy industry for the final bell to toll.
 
Software development will undoubtedly remain in California. A significant amount of R&D will remain, including the all important FSD team and the AI team.

Manufacturing should have left California yesterday, except for the fact that even at Tesla speed a factory doesn't just spring up out of the ground. In the long run, I don't see Tesla continuing to operate Fremont as a factory. As an R&D facility, and for small production of low volume vehicles like Roadster, absolutely. Tesla can't leave the state completely, there is nowhere on Earth with the concentration of talented software engineers that SV has. But Tesla's manufacturing operations are already condemned in California, it just takes a long time in heavy industry for the final bell to toll.

There is no reason why Fremont can't be redeveloped at some stage, and made more efficient...

Compared to Shanghai, Berlin and Austin it might be inefficient, but how does it compare to the average car industry factory?

To redevelop Fremont, I think they need a factory in Mexico to build Model 3/Y for CA, while Fermont is being redeveloped.

With Giga-castings, Robots and high levels of automation a smaller more highly skilled workforce is needed in the long run.

Proximity to the West Coast market is a big advantage... the factory needs a major overhaul to match the newer factory designs.
 
New retirement plan. Get a friend to start working at Apple. Then I start working there. Get my friend to make fun of my hairline and call me names. Sue Apple for $100 BILLION! (I just have to make sure we are in CA, since judges in other states can't be this stupid).

I can only think of this Chris Rock routine after reading the article. We need more details! Which n-word did his co-workers use? And were his co-workers black or white? Details!

 
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Chipmakers to carmakers: Time to get out of the semiconductor Stone Age​


Not sure if this Fortune article from Sept 17 was mentioned here. It talks about Intel chief going to German auto show to addressing complaints about lack of auto chips.

“It just makes no economic or strategic sense,” said Gelsinger, who came to the auto show to convince carmakers they need to let go of the distant past. “Rather than spending billions on new ‘old’ fabs, let’s spend millions to help migrate designs to modern ones.”



It sounds like Intel and others might never build new capacity to make obsolete chips that auto makers need in greater volume, and the chip crisis that the legacy auto OEMs are facing will only be completely solved once their suppliers solves what Tesla had to do.

Quoting Elon tweet from Oct 4th on the Tesla chip conversion effort: “This was *extremely* difficult. Huge props to Tesla engineering, supply chain, production & key suppliers.

Tesla successfully overcame the chip shortage problem and delivers 73% increase in Q3 volume YoY due to talents available and speed of execution both internally and with their suppliers.
 
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Just finished the IDRAGroup Giga Press Uncovered video Part1.
IDRAGroup has received more than 15 GigaPresses orders so far. All Tesla?
My guesses from a few weeks ago:
Idra casting machines needed:

2022
Roadster? - 1 machine
Semi (unlikely) - 0
Cybertruck - 2?

2023
Cybertruck - 2?
M2 - 8?

2024
M2 - 8?

2025
M3 - 4?

How many do they make a year? Above doesn't include S,X and importantly Y. Presumably several more needed in Austin and Berlin for Y. Tesla may need to start buying the M2 machines for receipt earlier than needed as Idra won't be able to produce them all at once.
They will need to have at least some M2 presses on order now.
 
Also, why would Cybertruck need cast aluminium when its a stamped exoskeleton structure? 🤔 Any experts here wanna chime in?
As I understand it, the aluminum castings will be for the sections the drive train attach to, (as will be done on the Y), with a battery module between the front and rear cast parts. The exoskeleton will sit on top of that platform, adding strength to the overall box and reducing weight and assembly time.

If they are particularly clever that same roller skate could be used for the Van, a bus, etc. if they came up with a few more Stainless Steel Origami options to snap onto it, Hot Wheels style.
 
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Also, why would Cybertruck need cast aluminium when its a stamped exoskeleton structure? 🤔 Any experts here wanna chime in?

Aluminum is for the same pieces which are aluminum on the Model Y, the front and rear assemblies. Essentially the place where the motors motors mount and the suspension is attached to the vehicle. The folded stainless can't make complex shapes so they need something else for the undercarriage where there is a bunch going on.

Also, the exoskeleton is folded not stamped. It's too thick to stamp. It's not really a full exoskeleton either, since it's attached to the cast aluminum undercarriage and the structural battery.
 
This is important: the previous trading day with a lower percentage of Retail short-selling was Dec 16, 2020. That's right, two days before the S&P 500 addition of TSLA.

Today, only 31.5% of TSLA trades were reported as Short by FINRA. That's less Retail shorting than every trading day since Dec 16, 2020 (which had 29.8%).

Those two days are the lowest Retail shorting in the past 20 months. My daily database goes back to Jan 30, 2020 (Mean: 46.9% Std Dev: 8.9%).

What does this mean? It means the big drop today was NOT caused be Retail shorting. It was Market Makers (MMs) and Hedge Funds, very likely using their Options Market Maker's exemption to the SEC's prohibition against naked short selling (Reg. SHO).

The tail doesn't just wag the dog these days; it only visits the dog for holidays. @Papafox

#SEC #DOURJOB
 
This is overly pessimistic. Stellantis already has quite competitive BEV's like:
Peugeot 208 e-gt, e-2008, e-Rifter and e-Travveler.
Citroën Ē-C4, Ē-Space Tourer, Ē-Berlingo,
Fiat 500
Fiat e-Ducato
Of course those are sold in Europe and some in other markets, even Brazil.
The Fiat 500 will never go to the US, probably, but is a brilliant BEV ground up with quite spectacular technology including level 2 autopilot, like aid that works even in Rio de Janeiro horrendous traffic, excellent Tom-Tom based mapping, voice recognition that actually works as well and Tesla (in both Portuguese and English I've used it) and so on. That is their first 100%ground up and it is proving very popular.
Plus Opel and Vauxhall models

The others I list are trucks and vans that are huge in Europe, not even sold in US.


The problem with our enthusiasm is that many of us imagine it is impossible for others to move quickly to adopt BEV and do so very well.
Check out a review or two of the Fiat 500 and the Peugeot 208 e-GT.

There will be failures among major auto companies today, no doubt. It is rather facile to write everyone off without thinking about what they are doing.

For most times will be hard, not least because of legacy workforce and traditions. Stellantis seems to be written off by the US observers because they have zero clue what the PSA/FCA merger actually included, nor how quickly they resuscitated the corpses of Opel and Vauxhall. Carlos Tavares actually has rewritten much of the recent history and has succeeded in rewriting expectations.

Just take a trip to Europe or visit me in Rio de Janeiro, drive the new Fiat 500 and tell me again how they're going broke. Of course that requires understanding what urban mobility is all about most of the world.

Tesla does understand these markets. The new Chinese and German designs will be built and created to serve those markets. They may never be sold in the US.
But they'll replace legions of Escots and Fiestas in the UK, Polos and Golfs all over Europe and will be at home all over Southeast Asia, much of Africa, South America. In short Tesla will compete with the mass markets everywhere. That will be fun because companies like Stellantis will be making conpetitve products.

Now to be serious. Ford has left markets that were core to the success of the 1920's and half a century after, US cars, Brazil, once their largest market outside the US. They cannot move quickly enough. GM surrendered n Europe after success since 1920, leaving one country after another, then surrendering in Europe. The Japanese and Korean makers are bizarrely lagging and largely ignored the sets fo their amazing successes.

Suddenly there is Tesla and a glimmer fo Europe and not too much else but...
China, the world's leader and most innovative in BEV's. Brands like JAC, Chery and Geely are joined by the upstarts like Great Wall's WEY, NIO, Xpeng and more.
While most fo the world ignores them they're becoming better and better.
Oddly, bizarrely, only Tesla really seems to understand and competes with great success. In the meantime BMW, Daimler, VAG, GM and others cede much fo their product development to their Chinese partners but do not manage to import the ethos that makes all this happen.

There si reason to be critical of traditional OEM's. Still a handful really do understand, one fo whom is Carlos Tavares. Unlike VAG's Diess, Tavares actually has the power to make major changes.

Sorry for the rant. I only want to make certain that we understand some people are learning from Tesla.

How did you get through that entire rant without mentioning other manufacturers gross margins? You say they have competitive solutions but, to me, that implies they can sell them in volume at competitive prices. And they need positive margins to move from the current tiny volumes into large volumes. Small volumes sold at a loss don't count. The trickle of EV sales we have seen don't amount to squat. Tesla's short-term advantage is making a better product and their long-term advantage will be manufacturing efficiency and the pricing power that entails. New car buyers care a lot about how much they get for their money. The only saving grace of legacy manufacturers is that Tesla only has a current production capacity of around a million cars per year. Soon it will be 3 million. And so on. If they can't compete on price, and it doesn't look to me like they will be able to, they can't compete.
 
How did you get through that entire rant without mentioning other manufacturers gross margins? You say they have competitive solutions but, to me, that implies they can sell them in volume at competitive prices. And they need positive margins to move from the current tiny volumes into large volumes. Small volumes sold at a loss don't count. The trickle of EV sales we have seen don't amount to squat. Tesla's short-term advantage is making a better product and their long-term advantage will be manufacturing efficiency and the pricing power that entails. New car buyers care a lot about how much they get for their money. The only saving grace of legacy manufacturers is that Tesla only has a current production capacity of around a million cars per year. Soon it will be 3 million. And so on. If they can't compete on price, and it doesn't look to me like they will be able to, they can't compete.
Just to accidentally cause more trouble, you two agree, with the exception of the Fiat small EV.

Die casting expertise comes from there and the car is small - suitable for the technology.

Until someone makes the final assembly tilt up, Tesla manufacturing efficiency will not be better than Fiat, save for the battery and software value chains.

[This is a first principles of assembly rant: Operations in a factory can be categorized as "installation" which involves bolting parts onto a large 3 dimensional structure of the same scale as a human, and "assembly" which is largely two dimensional, self-fixturing and gravity assisted. The courses call it "top down" assembly. Tesla is still doing installation with people reaching inside door openings to attach interior parts. All that work will be a lot faster if done with gravity helping as "assembly" rather than "installation." Perhaps stir welding or adhesives can be used to attach the sides and the roof beams before capping it with glass. The small, inexpensive car cannot have a lot of installation operations because installation operations are slow and less easily repeatable. Tilt up is one way to solve this.]
 
The answer to the question that nobody with a brain ever asked: