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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I know I know guys....just venting. Again, I have an EV, but my friends who have multiple kids and their bills do not. I'm tired of that look I get when I talk to them about it. I get "yeah, yeah, whenever the price comes down...."
They don’t have to buy; they can lease. They’ve had plenty of opportunity to buy used before used prices got really stupid. They could have been saving/penny pinching for the last 10 years, or making thousands of different choices over that decade to position themselves to afford one.

We know that over the lifetime of the car cost of ownership is less. So it’s just that bit extra upfront they need to negotiate.

Honestly, they don’t want to, badly enough, or they would. And that might honestly be bad for their children.
 
Pre-market OT rant: When did “YouTuber” become a quality classification? Same as “Influencer”, “Twitterati”? 🤮

>99% of all of them have no other agenda in their minds than how to increase followers and subscribers to monetise their verbal diarrhoea.

The <1% remaining - some of which have a relevant and justifiable following here - put real work in and have real good content.

But “a YouTuber” should never be part of a sentence that describes investment decisions. Especially not in a quality forum such as this (and the “other one”).

/rant over
I consider the major news networks (CNN, FOX, CNBC, etc) to be propaganda, corrupt, and untrustworthy. I find Rob Mauer and Sandy Munro to be excellent sources of information with their YouTube channels.
 
They don’t have to buy; they can lease. They’ve had plenty of opportunity to buy used before used prices got really stupid. They could have been saving/penny pinching for the last 10 years, or making thousands of different choices over that decade to position themselves to afford one.

We know that over the lifetime of the car cost of ownership is less. So it’s just that bit extra upfront they need to negotiate.

Honestly, they don’t want to, badly enough, or they would. And that might honestly be bad for their children.

Exactly. If they did their research, they'd know how much they're saving with an EV, especially a Tesla. Does it suck for them that they'll pay an additional 1-2k? Sure. But even after just 5-6 years that 1-2k makes little difference. And people had plenty of time to buy at the cheaper prices.

You can't blame Tesla for EV's in general finally hitting their inflection point. When the inflection points hit, you can't expect prices to stay so low because demand goes through the roof.
 
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During the early '21 run up to $900 there was a distinct separation between TSLA and the rest of the market indices.
We are starting to see a similar pattern.
MON. TSLA up, with NASDAQ, S&P500 & DOW down big
TUES. TSLA flat, with NASDAQ, S&P500 & DOW up big
WED. (so far) TSLA up, with NASDAQ, S&P & DOW down big
IMO this trend will continue with a longer term (end of year) outcome of TSLA moving higher, and NASDAQ, S&P and DOW moving lower. Positioned accordingly.
Wasn't that run up mostly from:
(Edited)-
1- S & P 500 inclusion (one-time event)
2- 5:1 stock split (will never again have the leverage of as much short volume)
3- shorts covering (short interest was very high, many have learned their lesson)

These can't happen again/or won't in the same magnitude.
- or am I missing something?

I'm thinking in terms of the value of my LEAPS, which requires the volatility generated by 1-3 above.
 
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Wasn't that run up mostly from S & P 500 inclusion and shorts covering? We are positioned for neither happening now, or am I missing something?

Yes and no. Yes it happened fur the S&P inclusion and the stock split time frame. It also happened in late 2019 and early 2020.....well before either of those two things were on the table. The run in late 2019/early 2020 had a lot do with Giga Shanghai becoming operational and Wall St couldn't deny it anymore.

Also, S&P absolutely only a one time ever event. But I think we can all agree, there will be another stock split at some point.
 
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Seriously!?! WTF happened to the affordable car?

"Affordable" is always relative to the market. If you are making 4 times as many cars but the waiting list is months long, then they are as "affordable" as they need to be at that point in time and you are fulfilling your mission.

More profit also helps accelerate the growth of production capacity to help you facilitate the mission more quickly.
 
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Seriously!?! WTF happened to the affordable car? Prices better go down once the 4680 lines are up next year and into 2023. The "affordable" version (third Gen.) of their plan is slowly drifting away....


tesla-product-roadmap.jpg
I remember thinking back in late 2012 that I would wait for the more economical third generation Model 3 instead of purchasing the current Model S which I could have purchased brand new for $50k CAD. Yes, it was the 40kWh battery option (with OTA paid upgradeable to 60kWh), but still. Yes the CAD/USD exchange rate was 30% better than now which helped. I just checked the Tesla web site and the cheapest Model S available for custom order base colour base options is $115k CAD.

Fast forward to June 2018 where my six year procrastination resulted in my purchase of a Model 3 LR for $79k CAD (75kWh). So I paid $29k CAD more than the flagship sedan waiting for the more affordable sedan.

So no. I don't believe Model 3 and Model Y pricing will come down meaningful from todays pricing, if at all. With inflation and demand, the pricing will stabilize or continue to creep up. The forth generation Tesla EV will allow for a more economical version if buying new, or buyers will need to settle for a used Tesla. However of note is that a used Tesla vehicle is as good or to be better than current new vehicles. With OTA updates, the cars get better each month. No other auto can claim this. It is worth the price of admission. If anyone is procrastination about waiting to buy a Tesla, please re-read this post again.
 
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Wasn't that run up mostly from:
(Edited)-
1- S & P 500 inclusion
2- 5:1 stock split
3- shorts covering

These can't happen again/or won't in the same magnitude.
- or am I missing something?
Other catalysts will drive TSLA higher:
1- Q3 Conference Call
2- Start production of GF Austin and GF Berlin
3- shorts covering (always covering)
 
I know I know guys....just venting. Again, I have an EV, but my friends who have multiple kids and their bills do not. I'm tired of that look I get when I talk to them about it. I get "yeah, yeah, whenever the price comes down...."

If they can afford to buy new cars, then they can afford to make them Tesla. If they can't, you should probably use a little more discretion when talking to them. One thing that would help speed the transition to sustainable energy is if people who would normally buy an inexpensive ICE car WAIT for EV prices to come down before replacing their older ICE car. This makes ICE cars more scarce and helps prevent them from becoming too cheap, too soon.

There is nothing wrong with being financially responsible by postponing the purchase of a new car and continuing to drive the old one while letting those with more disposable income snatch up every last available EV. Once people know they want an EV, it makes it a lot harder to go buy a new ICE car.
 
One other data point is a YouTuber sold all his shares this morning at $795 that he bought recently at $600 due to concerns about the CCP and Tesla's exposure to China.

If he did the math, he would figure out that production will actually be less dependent on China in the near future with Austin and Berlin ramping.

Right now, it looks like this:
~500k Fremont
~400k Shanghai

for
55% USA
45% China

After ramping a bit, it will probably look like this in late 2024:
~1,000k Austin
~800k Shanghai
~600k Berlin
~600k Fremont

or;

53% USA
27% China
20% Germany
 
I don't understand why the buyer doesn't know that they don't have the shares they paid for.
... because their Broker doesn't tell them. Learn the difference between a Beneficial Shareholder (retail customer) and a Shareholder of Record (large institutions, registered with Share Agent).

Did you not notice the dozen folks here in Sep 2020 who were told by their Broker's that 'their shares haven't been delivered by the Agent? so you we can't deliver and you can't sell? Yeah, that was a lie, those Borkers were caught naked short. Its rampant abuse and that's why the SP went up 90% in 3 weeks.

Everything else is b.s.
 
And that’s a problem with people. The inability to see past the extraneous, the clothes, the meat suit, the facade, the edge of the box, the veil.

Convention breeds mediocrity, laziness, judgement. It is precisely the people who are doing it different that one needs to pay attention to. Have we not the primest example in front of our faces? Think back over your life. Every single extraordinary person I know forged their own path.

Your investment advice couldn’t possibly have been any worse than those we so often mock. Those who present themselves as and who represent the elite in the field given copious amounts of airtime.

As far as I know, none of us here are big name or little name Wallstreet. Yet look at us now.
Kindest words damning me with faint praise I can remember. Thanxabunch.😁
There is, as Dear Readers ought recall, an epilogue. Some years ago I got back into that particular saddle, and those who joined…or rejoined…me have done marvelously indeed. Even (especially) with that saddle atop a one-horse show.
 
If he did the math, he would figure out that production will actually be less dependent on China in the near future with Austin and Berlin ramping.

Right now, it looks like this:
~500k Fremont
~400k Shanghai

for
55% USA
45% China

After ramping a bit, it will probably look like this in late 2024:
~1,000k Austin
~800k Shanghai
~600k Berlin
~600k Fremont

or;

53% USA
27% China
20% Germany

Yup, his worries are completely unfounded. Tesla Shanghai actually pays their workers well for Chinese standards along with great perks. Giga Shanghai serves as an export HUB and there is no way China government wants to harm that. It's benefitable to China and especially it's image.

Tesla is a image of things going right for the Chinese governments when it comes to their economy. What they're cracking down on are the many, many things going on over there that are very detrimental and potentially down the line, dangerous to the Chinese economy.
 
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I have bugged others about posting on Tesla's sales compared to other EV manufacturers. I personally don't care about Tesla "beating" other EVs. I personally care about Tesla displacing more ICEs off the roads.

We've seen some statistics - usually presented as text or in a table - but not the historical trends I think matter most. I absorb better visually. So I put a chart together: Global light vehicle sales.

This chart includes the top 12 sellers from 2020 compiled by the sources at bottom, plus Tesla Model 3 and Model Y (with sales labels). I tried to colour code by manufacturer - if you have a hard time deciphering, the legend lists the model in order of 2020 sales.

Obviously I'm looking for Tesla models to begin climbing past these fossils until they are top selling models globally. If any other EVs come close to the top 20 of global sales, power to them - I'll add them.

Please let me know any suggestions or corrections.
View attachment 718133

Sources:

Using monthly figures through September from MarkLines.com, I've projected sales through end of 2021. This favours Tesla's impressive ramp up, as well as its handling of the chip shortage.

The Model 3 is straight-line trending to be the 8th highest selling light vehicle in the world this year:
1633532796779.png

The biggest decline trends are:
  • VW Golf (was 3rd highest seller in 2017, now 16th)
  • Nissan Sentra / Sylphy
  • Honda HR-V
  • Honda Civic
  • Ford F-150
Can't wait for CyberTruck to compete against that huge ICE truck market (3rd Ford F-150, 6th GM Silverado, 7th RAM Truck), and for the Model Y to ramp up and beat out the RAV4 (the only non-Tesla vehicle that has grown in sales despite the pandemic and chip shortage).
 
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As an investor and TSLA shareholder I agree, given the current demand raising prices makes sense.

As a consumer hoping to buy my first Tesla next year, a Model Y LR, I am upset because the price of my next car keeps climbing higher and higher. At this point I'll likely just keep my current 2015 Subaru Crosstrek much longer than I intended until the prices of Tesla's fall again. I don't care how wealthy I am, as a frugal individual I do not like paying more for a product than I want to, and right now the price of a LR MY is more than I'd want to spend.

Thankfully I do love my little Crosstrek, and if my TSLA shares skyrocket quicker than I expect then frack it I'll pay whatever Tesla wants for a Model Y. :D

I know exactly what you are saying. My plan was to replace my current car next spring (car now over 10 years old) but as prices kept going up I figured I would just wait it out. I can easily afford it but I am frugal also and have no problem driving my car another 5 years if needed. No Rush. However, eventually I said F it, I want one now and I ended up putting an order in (before the most recent $1,000) increase.

Part of my decision to say F it, besides my car getting up their in years and just simply wanting an awesome EV, was that if the Fed rebate does get passed, I don't see demand or prices dropping for years. With a Fed rebate the value of the Model Y is amazing and wouldn't surprise me if they raised the price again (with a Fed rebate). If the Fed rebate doesn't pass by the time I am expected to get my car (April) then I can decide then if the Y is worth it based on the price I have...worse case I am out the $250. Best case is I get a sweet ride with a Fed rebate on top.

Edit: Also keep in mind, if you do want a Y next year you pretty much have to order it now. You can always put it on hold if needed. However, if the rebate does pass I would expect wait times get pushed out many more months...which probably would result in more prices increases in an attempt to keep demand in check.
 
At share dividend event I needed to wait until Thursday to get what was legally mine from Monday morning already.

No, those dividend shares were legally yours as of the Close of trading on Friday, Aug 28, 2020 (that's when the Share Agent distributed the shares, it's all laid out in Tesla's filings). So you should have been able to trade your new shares on Monday morning.

Your broker holds a pool of shares, in which your's are held. They didn't have enough to give you until they bought shares during the week after Tesla's $5B share offering.

sc.TSLA.ShareDividend.2020-08-13.2020-09-04.png


Your Broker's pool was too shallow, because they bet (correctly) that you wouldn't find out and sue them.

Mischief managed.
 
Not going to link to it, but CNBC has a video special on Tesla Solar for Lora K. Besides quoting herself, she also PROMINATELY features TeslaCharts, an anonymous "solar industry expert". Most of the Tesla solar customers she interviews that have had issues have flat roofs (go figure), and a lot of old quotes and headlines from the familiar bear sources. Only positive seemed to be the one token Tesla bull customer from a Tesla owners club president. Classic FUD!
Lol....and I'm fairly sure that "reporting" was from more than a year ago. I guess CNBC thought it was a good time to rinse and repeat!

I actually feel bad for these journalists. There's no place for them anymore. Relegated to just shutting up and printing what they're told. Sad.
 
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