thesmokingman
Active Member
Shorts be running for the hills right about now.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Mrna technology is disruptive, let’s us see where it takes us.Disruptions and pharma stocks are hard.
For Disruption, on paper a lot of companies look good, but most fail.
Pharma/Bio-tech are more like Binary event driven - vaccine/cancer cure massive rewards and if study shows failure big losses.
I had DDD and LendingClub with same ARK disruptive aspirations and lost my shirt on these trades. One of the reasons I avoided ARK.
All in TSLA ... the cream that has risen out of the disruption froth
(+ being all in also has it's own super risks ... )
lafrisbee
Active Member
Design Institute of Computational Knowledge and Science.I wonder if they would have been as upset if Elon instead created the Design Institute of Computing and Science
In one tweet, Elon Musk captures the everyday sexism faced by women in STEM
It raises questions about the work culture at Tesla and SpaceX.qz.com
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Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Speaking for myself, I'm not investing for the near-term financials alone. I'm looking at the net present value of expected cashflows between now and the heat death of the universe (although I will admit I only bothered to project out to 2037). As long as that number is egregiously lower than the market cap, I want to own TSLA. I suspect I'm not the only one.
When an event happens that increases the net present value, should we not expect TSLA to rise?
Note that he says «same margin», not «same price» - I believe some of the savings from doing 1 big sale instead of 100.000 individual sales will be credited…
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Yeah, this is hilarious. So Hertz wasn't really public so it couldn't be shorted.....but Avis was. So now Hertz makes a deal with Tesla and simply the wake of that deal raising a non-public competitor's profile was enough to let the wsb crowd pile on with the hedge funds and squeeze the hell out of hit.
I wonder who gets Melvined today? Will they never learn?
Edit: Also excited for these newly 50x'd funds to roll into TSLA this afternoon and tomorrow
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Of course it should be a catalyst, but (and I know you get it) it has to be understood in the correct way. My hunch is many in the market don't understand this in the correct way - they see a headline that says Hertz has ordered 100.000 Teslas, they know that "Tesla only sold 500k cars in 2020, so they think "wow, Tesla got an order for 20% of their yearly production", when in reality their goal (which they've more or less met over time) is a 50% YOY growth and whether or not this happens has nothing what-so-ever to do with if Hertz order 100.000 cars or not. On this board we've been talking about the dichotomy of "demand or supply constrained" since 2013 and the answer has more or less always been, and might be if not until 2037 then at least for many many years to come: Tesla's car sales are constrained by supply, not demand.
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Paracelsus
Active Member
Yes, an Ex-CEO of Ford who presided over that company’s failure to move towards EV’s during the years when the roll-out of the Model S brought a spotlight to Tesla illuminating a more sustainable path, and through Tesla's Model 3 do-or-die ramp who created a very public advertising campaign for Hertz by announcing an already-successful partnership with Tesla, and he announces this roll-out with the most popular sports figure of our time before terms and conditions are accepted by Tesla...............? I'm not sure this passes the smell test for me. In fact, I would not be surprised to learn this effort wasn’t designed to hurt Tesla in a much larger way if Tesla did not bend and take a hit financially for this deal. The whole ICE manufacturing community and the UAW that both fought tooth and nail to avoid going down the EV path had plenty to gain in the past if Tesla failed to clear all the roadblocks that were thrown at them. And ICE/UAW would now once again have much to gain if Tesla sold a significant portion of their 2022 production at the reduced margin that Hertz is likely asking for......and they would further benefit if Tesla was hurt publicly in the process. In fact, I think ICE/UAW would probably benefit the most if this deal completely fell through after a very powerful social conditioning advertising campaign portraying Hertz as the ‘good guy’ trying to move forward that creates a situation that made it appear that Elon was not allowing them to. I mention the later because most people on the street wouldn't know the difference between Mark Fields and a can of paint, so using Tom Brady is a very heavy effort to change the status quo IMO. But Hertz did not in any way that I ever saw reveal in their advertisements that only a 'potential' agreement between Hertz and Tesla had been reached (did I miss this?). Thus how can this be a 'negotiation in good faith'? It isn’t IMO. And how can an advertising campaign that misrepresents an already-agreed upon partnership cement a foundation for a very healthy long term relationship? I am not sure it can now. A house is only as good as the foundation it is built upon.
This is all opinion…………..opinion based upon watching everything including the kitchen sink thrown at Tesla. This has been a larger story that I could have never made up despite having watched a hauntingly similar movie from a 60+ year old book that I never thought much of until following the trials of Elon/Tesla so closely.
“If Reardon Metals railroad rails fail (Tesla’s EV’s and FSD), then it is a public safety issue” says the government representative (insert NHTSA/Missy Cummings and SSI). “And if Reardon Metals succeeds then it creates a social issue (insert ICE mfg’s, UAW, and this administration for pressures on Tesla to reduce their pace to the pace of everyone else).
“Reardon Metals (Tesla) is not for sale”………(Hank Reardon/Elon)
Personally, I am very glad to see Elon stand firm like Hank Reardon in the metaphoric story Atlas Shrugged. And I am also in awe. We are witnessing a Paradigm Shift that is being led by a very small group of people willing to lean in hard. And at a time where such pressures have even made their way into an internationally followed Infrastructure Bill, I am particularly glad Elon has more Twitter followers (61.9M) than Joe Biden (31.6M), Tom Brady (2.1 Million), Ford (1.3 Million), GM (773.3K), Hertz (73.5K), and UAW (66.8K) combined.
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lafrisbee
Active Member
Couldn't it be Hertz just hasn't gotten a loan to purchase the Teslas yet?
They better get their orders in soon, as it's going to take quite some time to fill the CURRENT order backlog for CyberTrucks.
Very interesting. The timing detailed in Part 4 is also interesting. They note that they didn't have a launch customer in 2019 when they introduced the Gigapress. That seems strange, but in any event we know that Tesla quickly provided very high demand. The history of that IDRA-Tesla interaction would be fascinating to hear.
The videos also seem to show that IDRA is somewhat ambivalent about working almost entirely for Tesla on the Gigapresses. The purpose of these videos seems to be flogging the foundries into signing up. But Tesla seems to not have much need for the foundries. As noted in the videos, the scale of these things makes it best to put them directly on site.
As much as I enjoy an anti-Tesla conspiracy theory, that's a little too tinfoil hat for me. Fields point blank said that no other maker would be able to supply such an order. The deal is already 99% done and I'd bet good money on that. Hertz would suffer greatly if this deal went sour, far more than Tesla would.
I have an extra few orders I'd sell them at a 10% markup. That's better than what Ford dealers are offering for the Mach-E currently.
lafrisbee
Active Member
I can tell ya one thing about TSLA. I can't tell ya anything.
Mine too!!! Why the heck is this????? They've been the worst-performing LEAPS I've ever had since early spring, what's so different about those March 2023's from my other LEAPS?
Do the farthest OTM LEAPS always do the opposite of ATM/ITM LEAPS? Is it because they were purchased closer to their ATH? Or are they more in demand at weird price drop times like this morning that makes them do the opposite of my other LEAPS?
Just so much volatility with the stock right now (IV%). Even downward movement is making call options move upwards.
Not necessarily. My spread of Calls are in general performing better than they have in the past in. Right now most of them are only down 1.5-2X what the stock is. Those March 2023 OTM Calls though are still up, one still up 19% even though we're down 3.4%.
It means there's demand and interest in those strike prices at those strike dates. Which tells me there's bets being placed on the stock going much higher over the next year. The break even on the March 2023 1800 Call is 1950. So investors are banking on a $2,000 share price by March 2023.
Wierd options logic but ..
As volatility increases ITM options lose some value as they have greater chance of being OTM
Reverse
OTM gain value because they have higher probability of being ITM
Cheers!!
Looks like we got rejected at the 1200 level right where the green line is. Convenient for me to say because who know what might have happened if Elon didn't tweet last night? Regardless, let's move on and look at 3 possible trading channels for the foreseeable future. Between the green line and the yellow line is where I think we'll stay for the next couple of weeks unless macros turn sour (they're pretty hot right now). The yellow line has not been tested that many times so I don't expect it to hold if we get a big sell off. The blue line is where I'll definitely call the bottom in that case. So right now, it's 1120 and then 1040. I don't expect us to get to the red line unless something big like an FSD cease & desist order is issued and then it's back to waiting for Q4 P&D mode. Again, very unlikely as we just blew Q3 ER out of the water.
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