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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I strongly disagree. Although generalizations about not using margin may apply to large swaths of the general population, investors here have varying levels of sophistication and assets.

Virtually every well run business uses loans. Most homeowners have used mortgages. Margin is just another kind of loan with terms that are not intrinsically better or worse than any other. Whether it is used well or not depends on understanding the terms, and to ensure the risk is appropriate for oneself.

Everyone risks their life everyday, so financial risks should be taken in that context. And, no, avoiding margin does not protect one from a calamity.
I am pretty sure Stealth3PD's words of wisdom will age quite well... and the margin proponents on this thread may learn some costly lessons in the future ... statements like "understanding the terms, and to ensure the risk is appropriate" are the key words as to why margin should generally be avoided , recent times have been quite unbelievable in the equities markets and we have not had a "real" recession in over a decade (i don't count 2 month covid as recession) List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia also the effects of a recession last a lot longer than the official contraction period.
; however , just as quickly as TSLA has exploded in a couple weeks the macro environment can collapse just a quickly without warning , and depending on the type of black swan event the downturn could last years ...

the only terms i need to understand for buy(with cash) and hold are in my control,
buy low , sell high , hold during black swan if nothing changed about the underlying is the way to manage your risk

margin calls are effectively out of your control :
"Just when you might want to buy more TSLA, you are forced to sell due to margin call ,"

not saying you wont make a profit using margin , that depends on a number of factors , I am saying your long term performance is not likely to be anywhere near the investor who buys and holds good quality stocks such as TSLA and of course continually does their homework on the company ...
 
I'm sorry but I paid street price (not trade price, though I could have gotten that) for my PV install 5 0r 6-years ago, approx GBP 6k for a 4kW system, so USD 8k. It seems Tesla's prices have not even achieved what I could get 5 or 6 -years ago. And that is for the best kit - Solar Edge and black on black SunPower.

As for the battery costs you quote that is not correct either. A Tesla Powerwall (if I could lay my hands on one) would be about GBP 10k, so 2x or so my PV cost, not 20-30%. And that would only solve intermittency for 9-10 months of the year, and that is in southern UK with E-W roofing (i.e. best for intermittency). Tesla products in this sector are not cheap, that's why they are only available in the US as they are not competitive in PV globally (yet).

(By the way that system produces 3,000kWh/yr for me, whereas my 3-adult household only consumes 1,000kWh/yr, so 2000kWh/yr net export. . When I shift to an ASHP (and elec cooker) I will probably be fully balanced at ~nil annual net export.)

I'd love to do the happy juice on this, but them's the facts. Fully factored system costs worldwide have been pretty flat the world over, and consumer level battery costs and availabilty are nowhere near where they need to get to.

(Whether batteries are best installed at the consumer level is a whole nother discussion)
None of this applies to you, just the US market. We're completely different and ass-backwards to the solar marketplace in any other country in the world. As you say, a very high quality SolarEdge/SunPower hardware kit is what a homeowner might shop for in the UK. Then I presume have a regular electrician/roofer/solar contractor do the install. In the US it's completely different, nearly all solar is sold as a complete package with less than 1/3 of the cost being hardware.

In the US pretty much all solar is sold through a 1-to-1 sales model that makes up 15-40% of the final pricetag. Someone sits in your house and sells you solar then collects $3,500-$8k in commission when you sign. I know it's absurd, and no one outside the US could possibly imagine that's how it's done, but I assure you it is. Tesla is the only operator that will simply sell you the product, but for a myriad of reasons, it's taking a moment for their far cheaper model to catch on.

My point was that IN THE US, this ridiculous sales cost is going to disappear for the most part within 2-3 years. And that's gonna shave 20-40% off the price of a solar install here. That's not a technology based improvement, but the removal of a persistently massive cost component all the same.
 
This aged really well, good call.
In the end it looked easy for them, but the middle of the day was tougher than I thought it would be for these bastards. The appetite for TSLA is still strong, this should have been a great day to try and smash us down to $1199 and trigger some stop-losses. On to Monday and a big week!
 
Don't look now, still ...

Oh darn! Looks like I missed it.

41v47-4IiEL._SX342_QL70_.jpg
 
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not saying you wont make a profit using margin , that depends on a number of factors , I am saying your long term performance is not likely to be anywhere near the investor who buys and holds good quality stocks such as TSLA and of course continually does their homework on the company ...

Strongly disagree.

This reads like someone who thinks "using margin" means "Borrow 100% of max and buy at max prices and hope for the best"

Don't get me wrong- some people do that and get killed. Just as some people use many other forms of credit poorly and get hurt by them- that doesn't mean you shouldn't ever buy a home unless you're paying cash in full though.


There's lots of ways to use margin (and typically only a fraction of what's available to you) that will consistently outperform JUST "buy with cash and act dead"

Last time I ran the math comparing my current gains to what I'd have had if I'd just bought shares with cash and nothing else the difference is comfortably in the 7 figures. And I'm a small fry compared to many.

You can check out the "other thread" to learn more about some of em.
 
Maybe California has made me bitter, but I don’t see SCE (Southern California Edison) types helping this trend. They have a grid to maintain and pensions to pay. Energy could be free and they’d find a way to charge me $200 month to deliver the free power.
I just got an email from Vinyasun (the Tesla authorized distributor that installed my 3 Powerwalls). They informed me that FPL and the other Florida electric utilities quietly convinced the Florida PUC to allow them to raise the base meter rate from $9 to $25. They are not going to go quietly into the night I suspect.
 
blip on twitter about Li battery plant Europe
edit:
Two battery fires in the Daimler Mercedes-Benz plant. The new E-Bus is involved.

It's the 3rd Daimler battery fire now. A previous fire happened with the new EQS
(alex voigt tweet)

Ha, I happened to be listening to a UL presentation on why batteries burn. (For my own design using a LiR2032.) The truth was revealed when she said the fires were mostly due to cost savings and exceeding safe margins on multiple fronts whether cooling or materials - many mentioned.

It just feels like everywhere I turn, systems are broken, especially Management vs workers, consumers, towns, environment etc... Tesla "competition" will choke themselves out faster than if they did nothing. Maybe Toyota's plan all along.

 
Did not see this competitive information mentioned, but am wearing blinders.


It looks like they are threatening/going to let Wolfsburg die on the vine.

"The “revolution for Wolfsburg” foreseen by the CEO is the group’s “Trinity” project: a new battery-powered line to be manufactured from 2026 which will lead to a major restructuring of the central plant, which has not yet started to be built."

"Works council chairwoman Cavallo said production of another electric model at the Wolfsburg plant “significantly ahead of Trinity and 2026 is essential.”"
 
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I wanted to chime in and echo this. I joined this board in my early 20's and had basically zero investing experience or knowledge. Had I known then what I know now, I would have easily retired last year, but that's not what I focus on. I'm still wildly ahead in terms of where my day job alone and a "traditional" investing strategy would have gotten me, and I owe that exclusively to this board.

I'm actually shocked that the contingent of folks on here has largely remained unchanged over the years. The attrition rate seems to be relatively low and we get the odd shifting of patriarch/matriarch posters, but I am somewhat flabbergasted that in the last 18 months this place has not become overgrown with new people trying to discover what we've all known here for years.... perhaps they are all lurkers who quietly observe in the shadows, which is pretty much what I do until Civil Engineering commentary required on any of Tesla's projects.

I am part of the higher echelons in a popular finance discord. We saw a huge influx of new members in the past two months. The current stock market is basically converting everyone into a trader.