Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Ahh, thanks. Don't know why it switched to the 21" as a default. That's a big relief.

It’s $4500 more For the 21’ wheels. Likely a nice way to pad the margins without actually raising the price again. Lots of people will just click buy and not realize they could have the car plus 4 shares of TSLA.

 

[Unpilot]

Two dips defeated so far.
Closing should be fun.

 

[Gigapress]

That appears to be a graph of uninstalled PV module cost. I have been watching such curves quite carefully in the energy sector in my day job for 30-years. They are impressive, hopeful even for us poor humans. However when you take into account:
- full BoM of an installed system (inverts, combiners, meters, etc);
- install costs;
- permitting osts (aka soft costs);
And then add in the biggy:
- intermittency costs (so either overbuild PV, or add wind, or add battery, or all, or other costly stuff);
Then I think you'll find that on a Levelised Cost Of Energy with Intermittency Provision Included that the curve is tending to level out. I would like that not to be the case, and in time I hopeful that Tesla (and others) will force trend resumption, but it is not quite as good news quite yet as one might like.

I believe the overall Levelized Cost of Energy trend for SWB will start plummeting very soon, based mainly on this analysis:

 

[Skryll]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456365915503833094

Make sense. Car last longer and Tesla can refresh itself thru OTA updates. Feel new longer should and should have more reason for longer term loan.

That and lower monthly payments = more TSLA accumulation over time while interest is vastly outperformed by TSLA appreciation

 

[mrmage]

Thanks for the info. A question for the dummies: Could you define a conservative spread (and $ example would be great too)?
Thanks!

My idea of conservative now when TSLA is at a substantial ATH is to buy stock, then convert to 2 year spreads or DITM calls on significant pullbacks. If TSLA never has another substantial pull back (doubtful), you'd still win.

Just a quick anecdote. Currently I would say I do not know what I am doing. Years ago though I really did not know what Iwas doing. Had a margin account, and one day woke up, and all my shares in that account were gone. No warning. Sold by bank.

The US dollar had fluctuated, briefly steeply downward, making my holdings less valuable. So I exceeded my limits in Canadian dollars and…gonzo. I know we are a Worldwide forum and just something to consider, as I had not.


If I knew know what I knew in 2011…not about Tsla price but just about investing I would likely be 10x from where I am. But thanks to this board…when the next Tsla comes along I will be ready.

Agreed, excessive leverage is risky and it's essential to understand the details for whatever one is doing.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

I recommend investors avoid margin altogether. The idea is to invest to build wealth, not to invest and build wealth if you are lucky. The nature of markets is such that use of margin exposes the small investor to things they shouldn't be exposed to. It always seems like those things cannot and will not happen right up until they actually do. These events happen with regularity in every investors life, some more severe than others and all such events have one thing in common: they don't pre-announce their arrival.

<The following is NOT an ADVICE just my personal speculation>

While I agree with need for caution, and fallibility of human judgment, the reality is that cash has negative rate of return, conversely debt has positive return. With margin rates around 1% and inflation 4% one could use margin to buy truck of bricks and still have positive 3% return.

That being said one has to be aware of:

- how much I am paying for margin and is it good deal
- under which conditions margin would be exhausted,
- what margin is spend on - do I stack up the risks,
- automated warning in place when margin cushion is getting thinner, way ahead of margin call,
- viable and tested plan of action when it happens (other source or liquidity, pre-planned tax selling etc)

Two examples of margin use with dramatically different risks:
A - using margin to buy VOO while having a backstop LOC ready and available at a bit higher cost, which is already linked to brokerage account and fund transfer was tested and timed,
B - buying some OTM LCID call because TSLA went up this week and so did my available margin .

 

[c041v]

If I knew know what I knew in 2011…not about Tsla price but just about investing I would likely be 10x from where I am. But thanks to this board…when the next Tsla comes along I will be ready.

I wanted to chime in and echo this. I joined this board in my early 20's and had basically zero investing experience or knowledge. Had I known then what I know now, I would have easily retired last year, but that's not what I focus on. I'm still wildly ahead in terms of where my day job alone and a "traditional" investing strategy would have gotten me, and I owe that exclusively to this board.

I'm actually shocked that the contingent of folks on here has largely remained unchanged over the years. The attrition rate seems to be relatively low and we get the odd shifting of patriarch/matriarch posters, but I am somewhat flabbergasted that in the last 18 months this place has not become overgrown with new people trying to discover what we've all known here for years.... perhaps they are all lurkers who quietly observe in the shadows, which is pretty much what I do until Civil Engineering commentary required on any of Tesla's projects.

 

[Gigapress]

Except that is the price of solar modules, not the electricity that they produce. The electricity costs will include distribution, storage, maintenance, etc. and will not fall as fast nor as far as the module production costs. For example, the distribution costs alone on my electric bill are over 4 times higher than your total projected cost per kWh. This part of the cost has actually been trending slightly upwards (for me at least) for over a decade now. In some parts of the U.S., insurance costs for liability for the risk of fire in the distribution of electricity alone is unlikely to ever get as low as your projected price per kWh.

This is why RethinkX's model includes a prediction of the economic demise of expensive monolithic regional grids with more localized production. At a certain point solar and batteries get so cheap that it'd be cheaper to just have a building with its own in situ power supply than to pay for grid connection. Probably metro areas will each mainly have their own grid with far fewer long distance high voltage wires and associated transformers.

Additionally I see no reason why applications requiring DC power couldn't just have essentially a direct connection from the Solar and battery DC output to the load with no pointless intermediate transformation DC --> AC --> DC. Thus, often inverters and rectifiers not necessary. In the future, the majority of electricity demand will be data center computers, AI training, building and industrial process heating, EV charging, LED lighting (including indoor farming that right now is mainly the 420 industry), and hydrogen and ammonia synthesis, all of which use DC. AC is great for motors, long distance transmission, voltage transformations, and fire safety, which is why it was the best choice originally.

Tony Seba has been saying this at least as far back as 2014.

 

[petit_bateau]

Sales cost alone in the US market for residential solar is averaging 20-35% of a homeowners pricetag......and is completely unnecessary. So you could very accurately presume that cost will be eliminated in short order and be replaced by battery cost which eliminated intermittency.

Standalone residential solar install costs at the product level will drop by a good 30-40% over the next 2-3 years. As TMC'ers you folks should already see this on the horizon. Tesla charges $2.01/Watt for solar installs right now vs. an average of maybe $3.25/Watt across the whole market last year. They just haven't scaled their service/communications, and the market hasn't yet eliminated the heavy sales cost. It will.

I'm sorry but I paid street price (not trade price, though I could have gotten that) for my PV install 5 0r 6-years ago, approx GBP 6k for a 4kW system, so USD 8k. It seems Tesla's prices have not even achieved what I could get 5 or 6 -years ago. And that is for the best kit - Solar Edge and black on black SunPower.

As for the battery costs you quote that is not correct either. A Tesla Powerwall (if I could lay my hands on one) would be about GBP 10k, so 2x or so my PV cost, not 20-30%. And that would only solve intermittency for 9-10 months of the year, and that is in southern UK with E-W roofing (i.e. best for intermittency). Tesla products in this sector are not cheap, that's why they are only available in the US as they are not competitive in PV globally (yet).

(By the way that system produces 3,000kWh/yr for me, whereas my 3-adult household only consumes 1,000kWh/yr, so 2000kWh/yr net export. . When I shift to an ASHP (and elec cooker) I will probably be fully balanced at ~nil annual net export.)

I'd love to do the happy juice on this, but them's the facts. Fully factored system costs worldwide have been pretty flat the world over, and consumer level battery costs and availabilty are nowhere near where they need to get to.

(Whether batteries are best installed at the consumer level is a whole nother discussion)

 

[jerry33]

It looks like a bad dream to me!

It's certainly a bad dream if any of those buttons, knobs, and levers are required in an emergency situation. Our Leaf has about half that number of buttons and I couldn't tell you what most of them are for. Denise drives it every day, and she still asks me "how do I do this?", and she's been driving it daily for six years.

 

[ammulder]

An aggressive investor who wants to build wealth should spend effort on cutting living expenses and discretionary purchases to the bone while looking for ways to supplement income to maximize investment capital. Not be taking shortcuts in good times to try to build wealth faster while risking their solvency.

Eh, to which I’d reply, what’s the purpose of wealth if you spend all your time pursuing it instead of enjoying it? I’d rather live in the now than cut my living expenses and discretionary purchases to the bone in order to support the nebulous future or to leave vast sums to my descendants. For me, part of that is keeping my shares but also using the margin they provide as the backing needed to sell options for income and wealth creation. It is true that a crash can hurt me, and I was not a happy camper a couple times this year (Feb/May, IIRC)… but it’s still been a great year overall for me on both sides (shares & options).

Not that anything is wrong with other people going other ways… to each their own… let’s not prescribe a single solution for all. I‘d be happy if we left “should”s out of the conversation.

 

[insaneoctane]

With yesterday’s price hike, Tesla has cleverly raised the price of the MY to almost claim the whole expected rebate/credit that the fed is proposing for themselves. Not needing to share it with the huge line of people ordering vehicles. Margins just keep getting better…

 

[insaneoctane]

Except that is the price of solar modules, not the electricity that they produce. The electricity costs will include distribution, storage, maintenance, etc. and will not fall as fast nor as far as the module production costs. For example, the distribution costs alone on my electric bill are over 4 times higher than your total projected cost per kWh. This part of the cost has actually been trending slightly upwards (for me at least) for over a decade now. In some parts of the U.S., insurance costs for liability for the risk of fire in the distribution of electricity alone is unlikely to ever get as low as your projected price per kWh.

Maybe California has made me bitter, but I don’t see SCE (Southern California Edison) types helping this trend. They have a grid to maintain and pensions to pay. Energy could be free and they’d find a way to charge me $200 month to deliver the free power.

 

[Knightshade]

Eh, to which I’d reply, what’s the purpose of wealth if you spend all your time pursuing it instead of enjoying it? I’d rather live in the now than cut my living expenses and discretionary purchases to the bone in order to support the nebulous future or to leave vast sums to my descendants.

Also the amount I add to my wealth selling margin backed bull put spreads weekly is vastly greater than any savings I'd get buying crappy wine instead of good or eating ramen instead of steak.

Doubtless one can get into a lot of trouble if they don't know what they're doing. But that's true of most endeavors in life. You can get into a lot of trouble with power tools, firearms, cars, having kids, alcohol, hell physics itself if you don't know what you're doing.

Or you can get great things out of all of those if you learn to deal with them responsibly. Margins no different.

 

[petit_bateau]

Maybe California has made me bitter, but I don’t see SCE (Southern California Edison) types helping this trend. They have a grid to maintain and pensions to pay. Energy could be free and they’d find a way to charge me $200 month to deliver the free power.

It's worse in the UK. I give away a lot of my production to the grid, and I still get charged for the connection 'cost' !

 

[winfield100]

This is why RethinkX's model includes a prediction of the economic demise of expensive monolithic regional grids with more localized production. At a certain point solar and batteries get so cheap that it'd be cheaper to just have a building with its own in situ power supply than to pay for grid connection. Probably metro areas will each mainly have their own grid with far fewer long distance high voltage wires and associated transformers.

Tony Seba has been saying this at least as far back as 2014.

OT
i gotta figure out how to double size of my PV, so instead of making 140+% i make 240+%
edit
i use about 8,000-9,000 kwh and make 17,400, and would love to make >30,000kwh

 

[printf42]

3 of my current favorite YouTubers are live streaming now.
Draw back is when Dave is talking we don’t get the “Dave stare” boost in SP.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456698221225447434

 

[JoRoMo]

In line with my goals to keep this thread more or less On Topic, more or less most of the time -

a Quick & Dirty crunch suggests that for TSLA to perform as well since its inception (2010) as AAPL has since its (1985) - all stock splits but no dividends accounted for - it needs to get to $8,700.

Lofty goal, indeed, but I don’t think it will need all of the additional 25-year head start that AAPL enjoys.

I have said double Apple, after Apple has doubled, so that makes sense. And then, perhaps on from there…

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Man, looks like MM's even got to do a tiny bit of 3:55 covering heading into the close. I think today's(and this week's) action bodes well for Monday. $1250 should be the conversation this time next week, and I suspect they'll be OK hitting their pseudo-target once again.

I wimped out on my $1225 covered calls this week and rolled them to $1250 next week. Not gonna blink this time!