I also voted no, but either way, there's no need for gnashing of teeth and rending of garments, imo. It will be fine if he sells 10% of his holdings. Have some faith. He wouldn't toss this out there if he thought it might harm Tesla's long term prospects.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'd think anyone wanting cheaper shares would have voted yes.
~$12B would go to exercise his options, which he would have sold shares to raise anyway. Maybe the other $12B is tax on this sale?
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Don’t think we’ll see much of a dip honestly. Appetite is strong for the stock right now with everyone realizing 2-3T isn’t too far away and Elon’s selling does nothing to the long-term outlook of the company. Maybe 5% down on Monday max.
Not insignificant but not enough of a dip for me to deploy “black swan fire sale funds” into LEAPs.
Not insignificant but not enough of a dip for me to deploy “black swan fire sale funds” into LEAPs.
Actually I think this could be a real bit of chess here..
With this he can sell the stock (which he has to do anyway to exercise his options?) without catering the price once it's published.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
With these price bumps and the impending US tax credit as well as the onslaught of fresh demand that will inexorably result from Hertz giving out millions of extended test drives, I'm compelled to revise my 2022 gross margin estimates upwards from the 37% projection I had in so-called "hyperbull" posts in the last 2 weeks.
Q3 2021 Benchmark
>> On mostly model 3 and Y production alone:
$50,000 average selling price
30.5% gross margin
$38.3k dollars cost per vehicle
I'm still projecting 7% cost improvement by Q4 2022 for the same reasons as before, for an average cost of $35.6k.
But here's what's new.
As of now prices across products have gone up about $3,000 since their Q3 average. Some of this is surely inflation and materials cost so let's call it $2,000 effective due to demand alone.
US Tax credit will probably further bump up us prices by let's say $5,000, on about half of their global sales. Overall impact on average selling price: $2,500.
Then, what's the conversion rate of fresh meat taking the bait on a Tesla test ride and then wanting one and following through on placing an order? Wild guess, 5%. If Hertz gives out 3 million test drives to Tesla virgins next year, that's 150 k new orders at current prices. Plus, other rental car companies will see the popularity and multiply this with 10^5 scale orders of their own. Hard to guess price impact of this without knowing the slope of Tesla's demand curve but I will boldly do so here. $3,000 per vehicle.
So in summary, estimated total $7,500 increase in average selling price of 3&Y over Q3 2021. Back to 2018-era ASP, without the 2018-era inefficiency.
1-57.5/35.6 = 61% gross margin on 3&Y.
"This is too aggressive," the paperhands are saying. Consider this, you fools.
This is not accounting for:
>> Any increase in average FSD revenues per car
>> Any impact of pent-up European demand favoring higher margin variants like long range, sport wheels, non-standard paint colors etc which Tesla will surely prioritize.
>> Any impact of European emissions credits increasing if other OEMs fail to meet their BEV and plug in hybrid volume ambitions to match the increasingly strict regulatory requirements.
So, Q4 2022 annualized KPIs:
2 million per year 3/Y production rate
Gross profit of $22k per 3/Y produced
$4 billion total gross profit from S/X
$8 billion operating expenses up 20% from Q3 2021.
$40 billion EBIT.
Q3 2021 Benchmark
>> On mostly model 3 and Y production alone:
$50,000 average selling price
30.5% gross margin
$38.3k dollars cost per vehicle
I'm still projecting 7% cost improvement by Q4 2022 for the same reasons as before, for an average cost of $35.6k.
But here's what's new.
As of now prices across products have gone up about $3,000 since their Q3 average. Some of this is surely inflation and materials cost so let's call it $2,000 effective due to demand alone.
US Tax credit will probably further bump up us prices by let's say $5,000, on about half of their global sales. Overall impact on average selling price: $2,500.
Then, what's the conversion rate of fresh meat taking the bait on a Tesla test ride and then wanting one and following through on placing an order? Wild guess, 5%. If Hertz gives out 3 million test drives to Tesla virgins next year, that's 150 k new orders at current prices. Plus, other rental car companies will see the popularity and multiply this with 10^5 scale orders of their own. Hard to guess price impact of this without knowing the slope of Tesla's demand curve but I will boldly do so here. $3,000 per vehicle.
So in summary, estimated total $7,500 increase in average selling price of 3&Y over Q3 2021. Back to 2018-era ASP, without the 2018-era inefficiency.
1-57.5/35.6 = 61% gross margin on 3&Y.
"This is too aggressive," the paperhands are saying. Consider this, you fools.
This is not accounting for:
>> Any increase in average FSD revenues per car
>> Any impact of pent-up European demand favoring higher margin variants like long range, sport wheels, non-standard paint colors etc which Tesla will surely prioritize.
>> Any impact of European emissions credits increasing if other OEMs fail to meet their BEV and plug in hybrid volume ambitions to match the increasingly strict regulatory requirements.
So, Q4 2022 annualized KPIs:
2 million per year 3/Y production rate
Gross profit of $22k per 3/Y produced
$4 billion total gross profit from S/X
$8 billion operating expenses up 20% from Q3 2021.
$40 billion EBIT.
Last edited:
CLK350
Member
The way he phrased the question, he obviously wanted a public "Yes" endorsement - and got it. Saying after an hour he'd abide by the results of the poll is slightly sleight of hand, as we know that after an hour the polls are 95% indicative of the final results. Still excellent PR job.
What I am curious about: with Tesla cash rich, why couldn't Tesla purchase these shares from Elon ?
What I am curious about: with Tesla cash rich, why couldn't Tesla purchase these shares from Elon ?
I voted yes. He knew it would be a yes before even posting the poll. He’s had our back now I have his, albeit in a very small way. I’d much rather he do this than take a huge loan on his shares to pay taxes on those options. It’s the safer bet for him so it’s the safer bet for us. This guy shouldn’t have to worry about a recession. Also, wouldn’t mind the buying opportunity, especially after doing a little trimming recently.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
All great points. And yes, Tesla absolutely can purchase shares from Elon. In fact, that's a standard thing that some growth companies do. If they're making so much cash, they can either pay dividends, or just buy back their stock. Normally, stock buy backs are done on the open market, but it would actually be a lot "nicer" and more organized to just buy stock from a large selling shareholder.
Given all the above, this might indeed all be planned. The company was going to do a stock buy back anyways, so Elon decided to harmlessly spice it up. That's assuming the company is indeed going to do a buy back.
I'm still wondering what Elon is going to do with $20B or so. And don't say lend it back to Tesla
Pezpunk
Active Member
i voted yes.
the stock does not deserve its current valuation if something as dumb and insignificant as this can tank it beyond some silly reactionary dip -- which is something only margin and option traders would be hurt by. (tell me again how there's no risk there?)
Anyway, i'm in favor of Elon and other billionaires paying a little more in taxes, but i don't think taxing unrealized capital gains is fair or realistic. So if he volunteers to sell some, I guess that's a nice compromise: He gets a huge pile of cash to do hopefully good stuff with, and the gesture hopefully appeases a critic or two on the tax avoidance issue. Don't get me wrong - there will ALWAYS be haters. But something like this can reduce the effectiveness of those complaints on neutral parties.
Probably all goes to capital gains tax on the sale and federal income tax on the option that's expiring.
Why would Tesla buy them back? The capital would be better spent on new factories, R&D, or acquisitions.
I voted no. I think it will end up yes.
I trust Elon. That is why I am all in...
I trust Elon. That is why I am all in...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
mejojo
Active Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
,
Not to mention, any shareholder that has ever sold 10% of their shares probably shouldn't vote that the primary person that helped make it all possible shouldn't be allowed to do the same!
OK: that’s cute, Mr M. A tip o’ the hat.
If he does sell I hope he pays off all the loans which he has taken out which have his holdings in Tesla as collateral.
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