Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

The 15 Min chart is screaming reversal for the first time since open. Hoping. Love all the optimism on the board. We all waiting for the explosion, always a gut wrenching rollercoaster with Tesla but mb I wouldn't have it any other way.

 

[canoemore]

The 15 Min chart is screaming reversal for the first time since open. Hoping. Love all the optimism on the board. We all waiting for the explosion, always a gut wrenching rollercoaster with Tesla but mb I wouldn't have it any other way.

I would rather keep trundling up that 1 month line than have an explosion.

 

[Dutchie]

Rivian up another 20%.

And Lordstown almost 25%. Huge amount of FOMO and people desperately looking for the new TSLA. Sad, as not many know what they are going in to.

 

[elasalle]

And Lordstown almost 25%. Huge amount of FOMO and people desperately looking for the new TSLA. Sad, as not many know what they are going in to.

MM's like portfolio diversification otherwise could exceed annual +/- ~ 8-14% targets

 

[mars_or_bust]

I don't know if Gary simply uses language in an imprecise manner or if he completely misunderstands what is going on here. As far as I know, this is not a company selling shares, it's an individual. TSLA granted the options to Elon, he exercised them and is selling them privately. Does Tesla, as a company, offer their employees (management) a service that assists with liquidating compensation paid in the form of stock options?

In any case, far too much is being made of this. The market can, and will, easily digest these sales. It's a mere ripple in time. I can see how the "not knowing" would ruffle the feathers of those who were trying to make a quick buck based on nothing more than guessing what might happen before this happened, but that uncertainty is exactly what people signed up for when they decided to make a quick buck! It's a big nothing-burger!

Gary is such a cry baby. "Boo hoo, the stock is down a few days, Elon has no clue what he is doing, Elon does not know finances, bla bla, yada yada". Sheesh...

 

[BabyBull]

I was thinking about this very concept in my sleep last night. I wonder if it would be possible or prudent to set a recurring buy order for a fixed number of shares on a fixed interval and not pay attention at all to the stock price. Something like; buy one share every morning at 10am, or every Tuesday morning at open, or the 3rd trading day of the month at noon, or whatever your budget, whim and comfort level may be. It would be a form of forced savings and Dollar-Cost-Averaging share accumulation.

This is 'almost' implemented by M1 Invest although they don't provide a wider options like 3rd trading day at noon etc. But they invest the next day as soon as you have cash in the account. So, in theory, you can set up a recurring deposit in your M1 and associate a banking account to do ACH and you are all set. I have done this to transfer 500$ every Thursday that buys on Friday morning 9.30am, and you don't even feel a pinch. I hope some other broker has the brains to understand the customer expectation and provides something better than M1.

 

[Electroman]

I show Model S Plaid as December delivery regardless of color. LR as November 2022, regardless of color.

This is what I am seeing:

All Plaids irrespective of color - delivery next month
All non-plaid except white - delivery in 12 months (next year November)
white - delivery in 18 months in March 2022

This is ridiculous. I can't believe they have so many Plaid orders that regular Model S LR is backlogged by a year. Most likely their production has not ramped up and can only make a few hundred cars a month which they are allocating to Plaid orders.

 

[Sofie]

And Lordstown almost 25%. Huge amount of FOMO and people desperately looking for the new TSLA. Sad, as not many know what they are going in to.

There will never be another Tesla. They may as well accept this and join our side. The longer they wait, the longer they are losing.

 

[MXWing]

What's missing from this comparison/analysis is layering in risk. I might bet RIVN doubles before TSLA doubles. But what about the probability of halving? I would put a much greater probability on RIVN getting to $50B versus TSLA getting to $500B.

Bottom line: I'm very comfortable with a large percentage of my investable assets in TSLA. No way would I do that with RIVN.

I agree that part is missing. However if I were to play the probability game, I think 200B is more likely than 50B.

It works to their advantage that no one knows who the Rivian CEO is. Something happening to our CEO is a ride to 500B.

The bigger you are, the more damage a nation state can do to you. Harder for Biden to do, but Xi can cut hundreds of billions off the cap at his whim.

Rivian also has a huge backstop in Papa Bozos.

Full disclosure my EV distribution is ~

Tesla - 97%
LCID - 2%
RIVN - 1%

MOD: Here is a stultifying example of a post that has zero bearing on the goals of this thread. I have left it up here to show yet one more time why taking the situation of something that is of moderate usefulness here, then letting other posters run with it, creates such a reprehensible mess that badly detracts from the value of this thread.

Another post shortly to come ENDING this kind of discussion.

 

[navguy12]

Oh boy, that one is a doozy of an embarrassment for whatever University issued her a doctorate degree in Psychology (apparently the University of Haifa). It reads more like a blog post written by an amateur than an article in Psychology Today so it's an embarrassment on that level as well. The hate towards Tesla will cause even reputable institutions to embarrass themselves.

One of her three premises:



In the world I know, reputable programs in psychology put a heavy emphasis on philosophy and logic. This premise fails basic logic miserably. It says that since Tesla does not indoctrinate everyone with ads and PR propaganda, that the Tesla community is a closed community. It makes no sense. It fails logic 101 because a closed community of customers (the cult) does not follow from a lack of a centralized disseminator of information. In fact, a characteristic of a cult is that the only truth comes from the top. When Ford spends millions of dollars on ads to create the narrative that their trucks are "Ford tough". We know because the company made sure to include lots of pictures of tough-looking men using the product to do tough-looking things. It must be tough! They wouldn't spend all that money to tell us it was tough if it really wasn't, right? Tesla doesn't spend money to indoctrinate us so....it's a cult?

Is this what Psychology Today has become? Oh my!

When I took delivery of my TM3 back in June 2018, a close friend bought me a “Mikes Tesla” sign for my garage door.

This past Halloween, one of the young trick or treaters asked me, “Do you like Teslas?”.

I replied, “Yes I do. I like it so much, I drive one.”

All five kids in the group had the same reaction: their eyes opened real wide and they all started chiming off with “cool”, ”neat”, etc.

Closed community indeed.

 

[Accident]

And Lordstown almost 25%. Huge amount of FOMO and people desperately looking for the new TSLA. Sad, as not many know what they are going in to.

Polestar is going public via SPAC early next year at a $20B valuation ($GGPI). They are already selling cars in 14 markets. They plan to release two more EVs by 2024 and will have capacity to build 250k by then. The only problem is sales have been flat for the year, and I’m not sure if it’s only because of supply or capacity issues.

I don’t have any positions yet, but at current valuations, I’d rather invest in Polestar than RIDE, LCID, or RIVN.

Of course, there’s always TSLA, and we know it’s guaranteed to keep growing.

 

[tivoboy]

What's missing from this comparison/analysis is layering in risk. I might bet RIVN doubles before TSLA doubles. But what about the probability of halving? I would put a much greater probability on RIVN getting to $50B versus TSLA getting to $500B.

Probably a good bet either way, but as with all things in life, it's about Plastics. - Timing

 

[tivoboy]

When I took delivery of my TM3 back in June 2018, a close friend bought me a “Mikes Tesla” sign for my garage door.

This past Halloween, one of the young trick or treaters asked me, “Do you like Teslas?”.

I replied, “Yes I do. I like it so much, I drive one.”

All five kids in the group had the same reaction: their eyes opened real wide and they all started chiming off with “cool”, ”neat”, etc.

Closed community indeed.

Around here, when people come by and see a Mercedes, Porsche or Jeep in the driveway they ask "Why don't you like Teslas!" I tell them I DO, but the Tesla gets the garage space with the mountain bikes. ;-)

 

[OrthoSurg]

When I took delivery of my TM3 back in June 2018, a close friend bought me a “Mikes Tesla” sign for my garage door.

This past Halloween, one of the young trick or treaters asked me, “Do you like Teslas?”.

I replied, “Yes I do. I like it so much, I drive one.”

All five kids in the group had the same reaction: their eyes opened real wide and they all started chiming off with “cool”, ”neat”, etc.

Closed community indeed.

Tesla is the new Porsche for the next generation.

 

[ABC2D]

Would the volume of only around 20M suggest that Elon might be not selling today?

 

[mongo]

The part that doesn't make sense is him selling any of his LT shares.

He already has to pay 53% tax on all the options shares- regardless if he sells em or not-- so selling any of them at that point costs him $0 extra.

Selling LT shares costs him at minimum another 20% federally.

So unless he's planning to sell more than ~24 million shares total, 100% of the sold shares should come from exercised options as the most optimal tax strategy and the Form 4s appear to say that's not what happened.

Short term, it impacts the cash on hand for a fixed number of shares sold. Long term it makes no difference if the capital gain rate stays constant, and it is better to sell the $6 basis shares if capital gains goes up:

Spoiler: Elon tax math (as opposed to general US people)

Current share price of X
Future share price of Y
Future Elon:
Sells original shares: (Y-6)*20%
Sold option shares now: 0$
Total tax: (Y-6)*20%
Versus:
Sells option share now: (Y-X)*20%
Sold LT shares in the past: (X-6)*20%
Total tax: (Y-X)*20% + (X-6)*20%
= (Y-X +X -6)*20%
= (Y-6)*20%
Same net tax either way. 20% twice = 20% once

If tax rate goes up:
Future Elon:
Sells original shares: (Y-6)*30%
Sold option shares now: 0$
Total tax: (Y-6)*30%
Versus:
Sells the option shares in future: (Y-X)*30%
Sold orignal LT in the past: (X-6)*20%

Total tax: (Y-X)*30% + (X-6)*20%
= .3Y - .3X + .2X - 6*0.2
= .3Y -.1X - 6*0.2
= (Y - .33X - 4) * 30%
Tax difference = (Y - .33X - 4) * 30% - (Y-6)*30%
0.3 * (Y - 0.33X - 4 - Y + 6)
= 0.3 * (- 0.33X + 2)
If the 2012's option's basis is > $6 (which it is) then selling the LT now and option shares later is better.

Reverse is true if capital gains rate goes down.

 

[dl003]

Would the volume of only around 20M suggest that Elon might be not selling today?

Possible his bankers took us from 1100 down to 1070. However, I find this speculation unproductive at this point.

 

[willow_hiller]

Manchin opposes the $4,500 union credit. His quote sounds surprisingly pro-Tesla:

“We shouldn’t use everyone’s tax dollars to pick winners and losers. If you’re a capitalist economy that we are in society then you let the product speak for itself, and hopefully, we’ll get that, that’ll be corrected,” he added.

Manchin objects to tax credit for union-made EVs in spending package

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) expressed opposition to a provision in Democrats’ climate and social spending bill that would give additional tax credits for union-built electric vehicles. A versio…

thehill.com

 

[22522]

Words of the Devil, through Gary.

Manchin opposes bonus EV Tax Credit for union made cars. Without Manchin, Dems can’t get this $1.75T bill through the Senate. $TSLA

https://t.co/jezBD7AqpP

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458888208389914626

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can we please stop with the tax stuff here.

It is so effing irrelevant and it’s been discussed to death, for weeks. Please find an appropriate thread somewhere else and contribute to some data hygiene here.

Thanks, from all to non-US taxable contributors here.

Elon's tax situation DOES have a direct effect upon TSLA investors. Knowing the likely consequence of various possible courses of action helps us to predict what he is most likely to do, and as we've seen this week, this affects TSLA.

For example, just in Jan 2021, I was able to use the act of Elon making a $100M charitible donation to Brownsville civic improvements and a Texas college to (successfully) predict that 2 of Elon's tranches would vest in the 2020 10-K.

And THAT means that at least 2 more milestones from his 2018 had been achieved. And those who subscribe to my feed learned that 2 weeks before it became public.

Or, don't talk about U.S. taxes because ur peein'...

Cheers!