-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Sorry for the mostly off-tangent question ...
Does someone have the link to a graph of the Tesla price increases this year ?
Thanks !
Does someone have the link to a graph of the Tesla price increases this year ?
Thanks !
We peaked last thursday, but were hit with the largest drop this Tue after EM fall sale event.
So MM began unwinding at peak, but EM sales acted as some catalyst - further fueled by reverse gamma squeeze by high number of put sales (tweet from @factchecking yesterday) by market opportunists.
So MM began unwinding at peak, EM decided to sell at peak (thought some of his sales were pre-planned)
I am thinking EM/Tesla know that 4Q will be strong and hence the sales will not have a big impact on SP.
I still wonder if he might be serious about T.I.T.S., which would be an awesome way to use his cash, IMHO.
If the stock price stayed the same till Q1 of 2022, this is what happens.
TTM PE - 1.02 + 1.44 + 1.8 (Q4 2021) + 1.9 (Q1 2022) = $6.3 which is less TTM 200 PE and less than 100 PE forward. If market wants to maintain 100 forward PE for TSLA. Then every quarter after that Market will have to act surprised and increase the share price by % EPS increase every quarter.
After Q2 2022 - EPS increases by 10% . Market shocked pikachu face - nobody expected this. wow share price should go up 10%
Narrator: after a couple years.
Q3 2025 - EPS again goes up by 10% QoQ for like 15th time back to back. Market shocked pikachu face for like 15th time - nobody expected this. wow share price should go up by 10%
Anything wrong with this logic?
TTM PE - 1.02 + 1.44 + 1.8 (Q4 2021) + 1.9 (Q1 2022) = $6.3 which is less TTM 200 PE and less than 100 PE forward. If market wants to maintain 100 forward PE for TSLA. Then every quarter after that Market will have to act surprised and increase the share price by % EPS increase every quarter.
After Q2 2022 - EPS increases by 10% . Market shocked pikachu face - nobody expected this. wow share price should go up 10%
Narrator: after a couple years.
Q3 2025 - EPS again goes up by 10% QoQ for like 15th time back to back. Market shocked pikachu face for like 15th time - nobody expected this. wow share price should go up by 10%
Anything wrong with this logic?
The thing is after 2026, we start S curve of energy, AI as service, Tesla bot Etc. haha
I accounted for that in my guess for 60k for Nov. Shanghai seems to be on a production rate of 13-14k/week. Even if that ship was carrying 6,000 Tesla’s, which is the very high end for a ship and was most likely carrying 3-4K, that still makes 60k for November likely because that ship is only half a weeks production at most and likely only a third. So when you apply that math to Shanghai being shut down for 7 days in Oct, 60k might be a slight underestimate.
We’ve also had 2 different reports/rumors that came out before the Oct numbers came out which talked about Shanghai annual production rates which the Oct numbers backed up.
Jan '23 puts at strike 900 are going for 175. That seems like a strong short to me because would I be buying at 725? You bet.
Will look at this next week if we take a tough monday.
Will look at this next week if we take a tough monday.
I have a bridge to sell ya if you think Tesla’s forward PE will drop below or even approach 50 for the next 3-4 years IF Tesla executes.
The fact is we’ve already had our PE compression….over the course of the past 9 months. Happy for everyone that was able to get in but going forward the PE multiple, both trailing and forward, are going to act as support higher quarter after quarter. Tesla’s earnings growth is too rapid for the stock to have any significant stagnation. Since Tesla’s growth roadmap for the next 10-14 quarters is nonstop revenue growth and even higher earnings growth, the share price is going to just march higher during that period.
Note I’m not saying we’re going to see massive rallies. Just that from a 1,000 share price, the stock will be forced to go higher by 15-25% per quarter from here on out depending on the upside in Tesla’s earnings which again, is based on Tesla’s execution.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
This is true but this NHTSA report is very sketchy because of:
1) The obviously false claim that the driver attempted to abort the lane change but was overpowered by FSD. This is not how FSD works; the software is very sensitive to the slightest user input on the wheel or brake.
2) The absence of any video or picture evidence or police accident report circulating anywhere on social media and commercial news media. Surely someone would have posted this by now like for other alleged FSD caused accidents.
There will always be volatility in a range per quarter but I pretty much expect the lows and the highs for the stock to increase 10-15% per quarter from here on out or higher if Tesla’s earnings dramatically increase quarter over quarter on certain quarters
Mod: The tone on this thread has degenerated into bickering. I understand that misinformation needs to be corrected, but not multiple times, and repeating the original misinformation isn't a valid argument against the corrections. Now, with @Right_Said_Fred taking a break from moderating, you instead have brought back the guy who doesn't write flowery warnings, and instead hits the delete button, because it's easier and he has a startup to run and isn't feeling well. So, keep it civil, check your facts, bite your tongues more, and maybe we'll all get along.
Oh, and if you don't like my approach to moderation, PLEASE do complain to the powers that be so that they will take away my mod privileges finally.
--ggr (ex-ex-semi-mod).
PS: I had a 10b5-1 trading plan for many years. You set yourself guidelines, and so long as the guidelines are met by your trades, you are pretty much safe. The only relevant fact in all of that discussion was that none of us have any idea what Elon's trading plan says. It is not a public document unless it needs to be used as evidence in defense. Back in the leadup to the dot.bomb era, I had a friend whose company was bought by Worldcom for stock, and his trading plan was basically something like "I will place a limit order to sell 1000 shares at $34, and every time it executes I will place another such order." (Actual numbers made up, but that was the gist of it. If you look hard you will find a couple of months during which Worldcom traded basically dead flat.)
Oh, and if you don't like my approach to moderation, PLEASE do complain to the powers that be so that they will take away my mod privileges finally.
--ggr (ex-ex-semi-mod).
PS: I had a 10b5-1 trading plan for many years. You set yourself guidelines, and so long as the guidelines are met by your trades, you are pretty much safe. The only relevant fact in all of that discussion was that none of us have any idea what Elon's trading plan says. It is not a public document unless it needs to be used as evidence in defense. Back in the leadup to the dot.bomb era, I had a friend whose company was bought by Worldcom for stock, and his trading plan was basically something like "I will place a limit order to sell 1000 shares at $34, and every time it executes I will place another such order." (Actual numbers made up, but that was the gist of it. If you look hard you will find a couple of months during which Worldcom traded basically dead flat.)
I agree 50 p/e is too low. My tentative 'most expensive sustainable market price' is 15x forward revenue or 15% net margin * 100 p/e on forward earnings. I generally expect forward revenue multiples to go from 15 to 8 by 2030. With 2022 at 80b revenue that's around 1200. I do some range trading on that theory, and it worked out well last January at 700-900. I sold 2000/2200 Jan'23 calls at ~1200 again last week and they are already up 48%.
I th
I think estimating future valuation right now based on revenue multiples instead of earnings is a big mistake. Tesla is growing earnings and margins much faster than expected and still has a couple things in the oven that could lead to margin expansion and profit explosion. In that scenario, the revenue multiple won’t matter. But good luck!
Come on Tesla, there is still some headroom to bring up the Model Y performance and still be under the federal caps for the full $8000 credit.. well, unless they are hoping for some percentage of users to buy FSD (HEAVY margin item) and therefore, well that is probably off the table for that buyer.
you could sell that nicely and be in at $775, probably a decent bet. Otherwise, you keep 175$? whats not to like.
Elon may have hit the peak with his pre-planned in September option execution, but he was selling pretty much all day every day.We peaked last thursday, but were hit the largest drop this Tue after EM spring sale event.
So MM began unwinding at peak, but EM sales acted as some catalyst - further fueled by reverse gamma squeeze by high number of put sales (tweet from @factchecking yesterday) by market opportunists.
So MM began unwinding at peak, EM decided to sell at peak
One thing I did find is that of the 4.1 million or so shares traded in the first 25 minutes on Tuesday, 1.1 million were from Elon's trust. Due to the contiguous drop from 1174 to 1106 with no retracement later in the day, we can sum all the sales in that price range from the Form 4s to determine volume over that time span. The chart shows that it was not one bulk dump, and each 5 min span had around 190-250k shares sold by the trust.
The sub 1012 portion of the Wendsday morning drop only had around 16k shares from the Trust. Due to the retrace, I can't glean more than that.
Low/ high of trust sales each day:
Monday: $1,139.05 - $1,196.60
Tuesday: $1,011.91 - $1,173.50
Wendsday: $1,000.00 - $1,077.520
Thursday: $1,056.03 - $1,104.15
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
