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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I know what you mean about buying a lot of stuff, most people use it as a facade because they think it makes them appear to be a better or more worthy person or covers for other inadequacies.

I'm curious how you convinced them to invest in TSLA.
Reminds me of when I bought into Lisa Su's vision way back. I told everyone close to me to buy AMD when it was $2 in 2016. All the big finance guys in my family ignored me, laughed it off. Granted as far as the world thought, they were a hiccup from bankruptcy. Oh wait some friends of my inlaws bought in at $7. They thanked me years later. Some others bought in later but it was too late to the party for single digit share price by then. What I've learned from that, is that I shouldn't have wasted my breathe. That ultimately led me to self invest so it is all good anyhow and the AMD gains are the seed money.
 
So as some of you know. The part of the world where I live just suffered a 1 in 31 {<==1 in 500 year, actually} year flood.

All highway into the city closed and we are surviving because of our trade route with usa and the port.

Ot was interest to me that the water rose all the way to the top of the seawall, in my city and a bunch of pumps failed in smaller cities. Further soldified my opinion that waterfront properties are in danger.

And during all these time, I had zero worries because of my pandemic food hoard and the Model 3 I drive. No worries because I can just drive over a pool of water on the street while other cars stall.

No worries as I don't have to panic lineup at the gas statio as the oil pipelines gets shut down and gas rationing begin.

EVs are great for mild disasters. And we are going to see a lot more of this.
 
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Thanks for posting that. I was already filtering everything JJ said through the "common sense filter" so nothing in this other person's opinion really conflicts directly with my understanding of what JJ has said. It seems JJ kind of exaggerates the things he is explaining but this is a style some people think is necessary to get the listener to understand how different something is from what the listener is accustomed to. I do think JJ's descriptions of how things work at Tesla are useful for understanding how it all works, just don't take him literally!
I agree completely. When you are hired to do a job and you are SO busy doing it, you ain’t got time going around like he mentioned. Cars have to be delivered to make end of quarter too. I worked in company that tried to use self-managed team before, and it did not work out very well!
 

TL;DR:With motorists facing long lines for gas, or not finding gas at all, already hot interest in electric vehicles has been supercharged in Greater Victoria in the wake of damaging floods.

“They are unable to justify the time and expense it takes to pay an employee to sit in a line-up at a fuel station,”



Yes, you heard right. Add people wanting Teslas because gassing up takes too long - to the long list of reasons why Tesla continues to kick gas.
 
Maybe he isn’t going to sell more now. I think he’s sold enough to cover all his taxes.

His tweets seemed pretty committed. If I had to guess he's just pausing. Most likely because it had such a dramatic impact on the SP. Less likely he just wants to mess with Bernie.

Could also be a mechanical regulatory thing i dont know about as well.
 
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I'm only just now starting to be able to influence friends and families on stocks and I've run up a 4000x+ lifetime performance before I got there. It's remarkably challenging to convert people that haven't really grown up with this focus or had whatever internal inclination that good investors have to sort through all the bad logic and paranoia and memetic complexes out there.
The best way I've found to give others information is to give them the book Elon Musk by Ashlee Vance. The first person I gave it to was my Schwab consultant who was trying to talk me out of my Tesla stock years ago because it had an F rating. I gave him the book that Christmas, he bought the stock, sold enough a year or so later to get back his initial investment, and is a current holder on the rest. He hasn't told me to get out since.

Sure would be great if Vance published an updated version!
 
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I didn't hear JJ give a timeframe for his crazy price target of 1000X (which he calls conservative, haha). I generally don't think it's very useful to look beyond 5 years but it's fun to speculate what could be in 30 or 50 years, no?
@StealthP3D
speaking of crazy prices, would you pay $15,000/share for CIsco, or $36,000/share for Apple, or $99,000+/share for Microsoft?

a lot of people did just that, friday, every share, because that is the actual, non split, real price, if you bought “way back in time long ago”

just like if you bought Tesla yesterday, it was actually $5,685/share.and all you really bought was __1/5th of a share__ for $1,137

otherwise, all you are doing is buying or selling _fractional_ shares
MSFT and CSCO, 288:1, AAPL 224:1, TSLA 5:1

or BRK-A which if i recall has never split $423,374/share
 
This kind of stuff is good for Tesla and Elon’s image:

20B89B9E-AC81-4B29-AD48-0FCB3611F4AF.jpeg


It’s followed by tons of praise from responders (probably already Elon fans though) about how a massive company’s CEO will respond to a Tweet from a customer:
 
This is extremly common experience among computer programmers.
Or doctors hospital charting
@StealthP3D
speaking of crazy prices, would you pay $15,000/share for CIsco, or $36,000/share for Apple, or $99,000+/share for Microsoft?

a lot of people did just that, friday, every share, because that is the actual, non split, real price, if you bought “way back in time long ago”

just like if you bought Tesla yesterday, it was actually $5,685/share.and all you really bought was __1/5th of a share__ for $1,137

otherwise, all you are doing is buying or selling _fractional_ shares
MSFT and CSCO, 288:1, AAPL 224:1, TSLA 5:1

or BRK-A which if i recall has never split $423,374/share
I like to think TSLA will reach a stock price of $99,000 presplit. This makes me really happy.
 
I don't follow Ford's lease arrangement closely enough to offer a strong opinion. Most legacy car companies have ownership of their leasing companies, but I don't claim to know how the books work for reporting income or claiming liabilities. @jbcarioca had some relevant comments earlier today, perhaps he'd be in a better position to answer your questions.

Seems to me on the face of it that if the hundreds of billion of dollars in long-term debt that Ford is carrying likely does include its car finance loans, but if not then they are really SOL... :p

Cheers!
Auto leases are fairly arcane topics and very few people understand all the rules. The accounting has changed quite significantly in recent years. If you really want to know, here is the definitive rule set for the USA, for leases of land, plant and equipment. It is this standard that establishes how accounting for GF Shanghai is handled for Tesla, and also for all the manufacturing gear that is leases rather than purchased. I give that reference first because few of us understand much of this @The Accountant has a background in both US domestic and international applications of US domiciled entities. this is most important because GF Shanghai, GF Grüneheide, global Supercharger network, stores and nearly all other non-US facilities may be subject to these rules:


So, back to auto issues. This topic is still somewhat bizarre:
First, for loans. The rule established treats loans pretty much as it traditionally did for credit loss reserving. The primary distinction, is that is now called Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) and requires establishing a loss reserve upon loan origination. That is simple and traditional but...the methodologies are still being refined. Thus far the apparent expectation is that the traditional concepts of Probability of Default(POD) and Loss Given Default (LGD) are in effect combined to establish loan loss reserves. Summary: Tesla will benefit greatly from the new standard because of the combination of superb consumer creditworthiness and high Tesla resale values. Many credit unions and community banks will benefit too. Bluntly: the higher the credit quality and collateral quality the lower will be CECL.

For Tesla this topic is particularly positive because POD for Tesla loans is the lowest in the industry. LGD is among the lowest also. Even totaled Tesla vehicles are usually more valuable than are most tother brands. Thus the credit rating agencies have been penalizing Tesla since the beginning for presumed higher risk which has been contrary to fact. (if any of us are really anal-compulsive enough to go through this most of it is public record.).


The differences between the former lease accounting rules and the new ones are most easily seen here, in my opinion:

The is a fairly superficial look, but useful.

Then, most auto leases made though OEM programs are held in special purpose entities which are referred to generically as 'securitizations'. The key difference between loans and leases in this respect is the tax and accounting consequences of vehicle ownership. CECL appears to apply to both. between them the lease issue to that residual value risk remains almost always with the OEM, thus they end out somewhere in the balance sheet. From a credit risk and residual loss perspective the securitizations have collateral substitution requirements to maintain the specified securitization risk ratings.

One easy way to understand all this without losing too much sanity is this Deloitte article from 2017. It is not quite up to date, fo course, but it is quite clear and easy to read for those not enamored of fine print:
frequently-asked-questions-about-fasb-s

In summary, almost all OEM's are 'on the hook' for their leasing risks and nearly all are securitized. Tesla is similar, and uses Special Purpose Vehicles for the purpose. Earlier this year Tesla issued their largest yet:

If anyone is desperate to go deeper just search for 'Tesla ABS' and you can reach fine print enough to resolve any problem with insomnia.

FWIW, I have been on the origination side and the distribution side of these thing in years past. I remain more or less up-to-date by habit but I am definitely no longer an authoritative source on issues like FASB/IASB reconciliation nor the detailed implementation of CECL
 
So as some of you know. The part of the world where I live just suffered a 1 in 31 year flood.

All highway into the city closed and we are surviving because of our trade route with usa and the port.

Ot was interest to me that the water rose all the way to the top of the seawall, in my city and a bunch of pumps failed in smaller cities. Further soldified my opinion that waterfront properties are in danger.

And during all these time, I had zero worries because of my pandemic food hoard and the Model 3 I drive. No worries because I can just drive over a pool of water on the street while other cars stall.

No worries as I don't have to panic lineup at the gas statio as the oil pipelines gets shut down and gas rationing begin.

EVs are great for mild disasters. And we are going to see a lot more of this.
I thought you were talking about the Canadian province of British Columbia where the government just announced gasoline rationing of 30 litres of fuel at the gas pump due to highway, railway and pipeline disruptions to a once in a 500 year flood. Multiple sections of main highways are washed away and/or covered by mudslides. Disruption is also causing shortages of fresh fruits and vegetables.

I feel the same as you that fortunately I have a Tesla and do not need to line up at the pump, and also lucky for me I stocked up on food from Costco on the morning of the storm by coincidence.

By the way, I just completed our drive of 6200 km (including side trips) from Toronto to Vancouver Island (on the very day before the storm hit). SuperChargers were plentiful at between 90km to 200km intervals all the way along the TransCanada Highway. Plus there were free charging at the National Parks and in some hotels. SC stations has max of 15% occupancy rate until I got to Vancouver where wait time was up to 5 minutes for the 16 stall location I was at.

Visited Tesla showroom about changing the color of my Y order from white. Response was it is going to be $2000 for the color plus $5000 due to the price increase on the Y and may be put on the back of the queue. No thanks. I'll just get a wrap.

British Columbia: At least one dead after ‘once-in-500-year’ flooding and landslides
 
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@StealthP3D
speaking of crazy prices, would you pay $15,000/share for CIsco, or $36,000/share for Apple, or $99,000+/share for Microsoft?

I'm well aware of this, that's why I'm a buy/hold investor. But to be clear, JJ's 1000X estimate (or more) equates to a million dollars per current share. This could definitely happen but it would require decades. I have an issue with projecting out that far because the increasing uncertainty with time turns any such prediction into nothing more than noise. Fun to think about, and definitely a possibility, but pretty meaningless.
 
Thanks for posting that. I was already filtering everything JJ said ... It seems JJ kind of exaggerates the things he is explaining ...

Unfortunately way too few people make this connection. Obviously JJ has Agile training company (Joe Justice | Agile Academy Trainer) and makes it appear like he can teach his clients some of the Tesla's secret sauce. It simply isn't so ... Agile has been around for good while and linking it to Tesla success is a very generous stretch.

Agile is like any other consultant enrichment scheme: Y2K certification(yep I am old :(), ISO quality certification, Kanban, 6 Sigma and more recently DEI consulting:

less than percent 10% is (mostly obvious) truth and well over 90% is billing opportunity for consultants
 
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Mary did it.

And a Tesla logo. Of course that would require it being Tesla merch…
TBH, she actually really did it!
She "changed the whole story", she "transformed the entire automotive industry" from making transportation devices into pyrotechnics and explosives!
This fundamental transformation cannot be attributed to Tesla, it was all GM under Mary!