Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobDickinson]

From IEA, no idea when it was put together because most of the info we get is promises and spin anyhow.

 

[Wicket]

From IEA, no idea when it was put together because most of the info we get is promises and spin anyhow.

Probably recent since 2021 properly has very little going on.

 

[goinfraftw]

Do you want the projected release timelines as published in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 or the schedule they will publish next year? Because they all look about the same in terms of how many years until EV's are released - it's always in two to three years there will be an abundance of excellent electric cars. It's a mirage designed to delay the transition to EV's. Earlier this year the EV F-150 was delayed again (to next fall). I'm guessing they might deliver some before the end of the year but not very many.

Traditionally, product delay announcements cause the stock to sell off. However, automakers can continue to delay product releases of EV models without fear of investors losing conviction (at least for now) because investors who buy Ford and GM stock are afraid of what electrification might do to their beloved companies. It's actually a relief when they delay an EV for the third time because it means more sales of the more profitable ICE cars. These companies have to pretend like they are all-in on electrification so they can be bailed out down the road.

Man, I was on a roll earlier today too

 

[Skipdd]

Refers to deleted post

You said in the post under dispute, “It's was comical man. He, the CEO was saying how by 2025 that Stellantis would be almost 100% EV. And yet as of Q4 2021, they have zero EV vehicles.” That doesn’t say ‘US market.’

And, what’s with the ‘tude?

Of course Stellantis is way behind the curve, and the CEO is trying to make it sound rosy.

I see @The Accountant beat me to It.

 

[thesmokingman]

To be fair, you said, "And yet as of Q4 2021, they have zero EV vehicles"
@jbcarioca was pointing out that this statement is not true.
He's correct.

As I replied to other posters when I made that post it was regarding the US market,

 

[StealthP3D]

Spot the koolaid drinkers - voting with a “thumbs down” to my post above - who somehow believe that EV subsidies are a bad thing now, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Who needs TSLAQ when we have these folks?

You can check my post history - I've not been a fan of the EV tax credit long before Elon said it. It really doesn't make sense at this stage of the transition to EV's. The first tax credit was good to get manufacturer's moving in that direction. Now an EV purchase subsidy is not needed nor is it beneficial to the transition. I won't repeat all the reasons why but the main one is not the same one Elon appeared to give - the deficit. I think he cited that one primarily because it would appeal to those interested in being fiscally responsible.

 

[mltv]

I really don't know why you guys don't focus on more urgent topic Elon brought up in the same interview. Change the topic please

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468253250361118723

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468421324242513920

Moderator in-post edit: Not to that topic. Not unless you think that the Third Rail that is "politics" is not charged enough. And even then....YOUR opinion doesn't matter. Summary: NOT TO THAT TOPIC.

 

[StealthP3D]

I bought my Model Y for $53,000 in February. It’s worth $65,000 now. I figure in 2-3 years it should be worth at least $75,000 - $80,000.

I caught a lot of flak in 2018 for predicting the Tesla Model 3 would hold its value on the used market at the top of it's class (vs. ICE). People countered with EV's lose resale value more quickly than ICE. They couldn't seem to grasp the Tesla was different than a Bolt or a Leaf. However, I never predicted it would actually appreciate in value and we have already seen some of that! And FSD isn't even a thing.

 

[AudubonB]

From IEA, no idea when it was put together because most of the info we get is promises and spin anyhow.

What an utter mess. That poster is a poster child for how NOT to present data.

 

[2daMoon]

Report of ANOTHER TESLA WHISTLE BLOWER
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Um, yeah, I got my Cyberwhistle today. ​

 

[insaneoctane]

I can't believe the company that is beating the EV leader (GM) is only planning on building 200k EV trucks over 3 years. That's their plan! Reality could be less. Austin will easily beat that each year, perhaps by a factor of 2.

The real irony is how everyone predicted "the competition is coming", particularly from legacy auto because they know how to build and scale production.... And then GM aims for 200K over 3 years.

 

[StealthP3D]

From IEA, no idea when it was put together because most of the info we get is promises and spin anyhow.

That list omits Tesla:

Tesla ................................................................. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

 

[Wicket]

What an utter mess. That poster is a poster child for how NOT to present data.

Alright I spent a couple minutes thinking on this and I disagree. The problem here is the information is extremely sparse and non rigorously defined. It is more of just an index into what statements have been made than an effort at eyeballing quantitatively between them. If they did this on wikipedia it would be a generic outline text format either organized (YEAR, COMPANY, CLAIM) or (CLAIM, COMPANY, YEAR) or etc and none of which would be as easy to spot in one view. I can scan this image and get to quite a few useful inferences fairly quickly. Line charts would look ridiculous and have interpolations that don't represent actual statements. I can of course be proven wrong quickly with a similar but superior counter example but I can pretty much guarantee at minimum it will not be as compact.

 

[RobDickinson]

I caught a lot of flak in 2018 for predicting the Tesla Model 3 would hold its value on the used market at the top of it's class (vs. ICE). People countered with EV's lose resale value more quickly than ICE. They couldn't seem to grasp the Tesla was different than a Bolt or a Leaf. However, I never predicted it would actually appreciate in value and we have already seen some of that! And FSD isn't even a thing.

I know its bonkers times but I had a look on cars.com and the lowest price model 3 is $39k??

 

[Discoducky]

Alright I spent a couple minutes thinking on this and I disagree. The problem here is the information is extremely sparse and non rigorously defined. It is more of just an index into what statements have been made than an effort at eyeballing quantitatively between them. If they did this on wikipedia it would be a generic outline text format either organized (YEAR, COMPANY, CLAIM) or (CLAIM, COMPANY, YEAR) or etc and none of which would be as easy to spot in one view. I can scan this image and get to quite a few useful inferences fairly quickly. Line charts would look ridiculous and have interpolations that don't represent actual statements. I can of course be proven wrong quickly with a similar but superior counter example but I can pretty much guarantee at minimum it will not be as compact.

What an utter mess. That poster is a poster child for how NOT to present data.

That list omits Tesla:

Tesla ................................................................. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

That view of the data is atrocious, I'm a former tech PM, and I agree with all y'all. You have to read every line.....line-by-line. Makes the chart unusable.

Anywho...the data is laughable...as always...to the plans of traditional auto...same as it ever was...circa 2012 or so.

I've had too much wine tonight to say what I want to say...

 

[StealthP3D]

I know its bonkers times but I had a look on cars.com and the lowest price model 3 is $39k??

I found one for $36K but it's the lowest range RWD model with over 64,000 miles. No autopilot like they all come with now. This car sold for $36K if I'm not mistaken. If so, zero depreciation.

 

[Jack6591]

I really want to write something pithy, insightful, and on point. All I’ve got is Ba, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha.

Oil CEOs raise alarm over market's readiness to drop fossil fuels

A coming transition from oil and gas to renewables will be "messy" for many years and lead to sharp energy price volatility as demand and supply clash, top energy executives said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[MC3OZ]

That view of the data is atrocious, I'm a former tech PM, and I agree with all y'all. You have to read every line.....line-by-line. Makes the chart unusable.

Anywho...the data is laughable...as always...to the plans of traditional auto...same as it ever was...circa 2012 or so.

I've had too much wine tonight to say what I want to say...

As the saying goes:- Garbage In, Garbage Process, Garbage Out.

The chart is pointless, because promises and plans are rarely backed by the ability to make them happen.

 

[Ogre]

I really want to write something pithy, insightful, and on point. All I’ve got is Ba, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha.

Oil CEOs raise alarm over market's readiness to drop fossil fuels

A coming transition from oil and gas to renewables will be "messy" for many years and lead to sharp energy price volatility as demand and supply clash, top energy executives said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

He’s right. It’s going to be a hot mess when demand for ICE vehicles starts to decline.

A lot of people predicted the cost of gas at the pump would go down because demand is down, but a huge chunk of costs are fixed. The cost of refining, transportation, rent, storage, and many other fixed costs will be spread over fewer and fewer vehicles. Facilities will start to shutter and the remaining ones will start rent seeking.

Not going to be fun for consumers.

 

[NicoV]

The BBB incentives are structured as close to legally possible to be subsidies for specific union led car manufacturers who are solidly behind the 8 ball on EVs.

What they will do is fund high priced low volume union made EVs and massive numbers of small battery plug in hybrids.

If I am getting $8-8.5k off a car that has a 10kwh $1000 battery that barely saves any fuel use or $12k off a car I need to put in 7-8+ times that amount of kwh which am I going to focus on?

Note that Europe (i.e. EU law and national law) already realised that hybrids make no sense anymore and thus have (or are in the process of) phased out any incentives for hybrids, leaving only full EV’s with incentives. This will accelerate the demise of the car manufacturers focussed on the US market. In the short term, their EU sales will drop, in the long term they will be behind the (mainly EU based) car manufacturers that have been dragged kicking and screaming into the EV future by EU regulations.