Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dangerous Fish]

Never is the answer. The UK might get a factory at somepoint, but zero chance Tesla gives up on Berlin. Zero.

The UK won't get a Gigafactory ever. I'd bet 1 x TSLA on it.

 

[UkNorthampton]

The UK won't get a Gigafactory ever. I'd bet 1 x TSLA on it.

This sort of thing won't help (but enough others reasons we shouldn't go into as well). I don't think it will affect Tesla in UK as the UK government already changed the criteria to max price of £35,000 in March 2021 which would exclude Tesla (could be wrong, just going by quick news search at the time).

https://www.honestjohn.co.uk/news/green-motoring/2021-12/government-cuts-electric-car-grant-to-gbp1500/

"The Government has slashed the plug-in car grant by £1000 and reduced the maximum price cap, which means thousands of EV buyers will face higher prices for new vehicles.

From today, 15 December, the Government will provide grants of up to £1500 for electric cars priced under £32,000. Grants for commercial vehicles have also been cut to £5000 for large vans and £2500 for small vans.

The grant for plug-in hybrids has been scrapped altogether."

Electric still makes sense for company cars though - Benefit In Kind per year of £122 vs £3400 for Leaf vs Ford Focus ICE - Electric company-car tax explained | Carbuyer

 

[winfield100]

Dead men walking.

Toyota made an oddly prescient boast, to be 1% of the market.
taken at face value they are predicting their demise

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471081001594109953

 

[petit_bateau]

Isn't 1.5M a bit on the low side? My thought is ~2M vehicles.
Adding 2 facilities which each should push out 500K by the end of the year & Shanghai at a rate of well over 500k/yr. Some Semi trucks coming from Nevada too. My thought is that Shanghai will do something like 800k next year unless there is some bottleneck preventing that? delivery trucks/paint line etc ..what is the expected current capacity of these factories? Fremont >500k. Berlin 300k min? Texas 300k min(2022) ... are the new factories not going to ramp faster?
With castings and shorter production times & lines I think these numbers are very underestimated as long as all pieces & batteries are available.

In my mid-year forecast I have 865k in for this year (2021), though I'll probably end up a little low on that as there is now the possibility of exceeding 900k.

For 2022 I have 1.5m, much the same as TheAccountant

If you look back to the first year of operation of Shanghai it did about 145k in 2020 at a time when Fremont managed 354k, counting deliveries. So if for 2022 Shanghai does 700k, Fremont 500k, and Berlin and Austin 150k each then that'll still be a 73% yoy growth rate. Those cells have got to come from somewhere - it is not just a matter of spewing out a vehicle shell.

FWIW I think recently Musk went on record as saying that first year of Shanghai would be the best analogue for coming ramp rate, so at least one person is agreeing with me

The corresponding vehicle splits probably need to include some Semis and Cybertrucks, and again here is that in my mid-year 2021 forecast.

 

[Mengy]

Toyota made an oddly prescient boast, to be 1% of the market.
taken at face value they are predicting their demise

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471081001594109953

Exactly. I actually think some of those Toyota concept BEV's they showed looked promising, but if they are only planning to make a total of 1 million BEV's per year by 2030 then Toyota is truly going to be hurting BIG TIME by then.

My hunch is they will up their forecasts over the next few years as the reality of this compared to the EV market becomes apparent to investors.

 

[15Peter20]

From some of the Youtube ads, Toyota seem to have invented a 'yoke' style steering wheel.

Well done them!

 

[Dangerous Fish]

From some of the Youtube ads, Toyota seem to have invented a 'yoke' style steering wheel.

Well done them!

"Vorsprung durch Technik" as they say. Hold on, that might be someone else...

 

[Lessmog]

Even at what the market has priced the last ~9 months (110x-125x) that is 1380-1570. Soon we will start having to use 23 as the year out EPS multiple. That usually switched after Q4 numbers through the end of Feb. My pure guess is the market starts at 100-110x consensus 23 EPS in Feb/March and they will start at ~12.50-13.25.

Wow, that's a very precise timing of market!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 years old how someone selling 2% of all the TSLA shares available in the world can make the stock plunge more than 30% in less than 1 month. Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 to reprogram the markets algorithm to make it more efficient so that if someone sells 10% of his shares if he holds 20% of the company to drop the stock price only of 2%. I have not found an answer to my question on howthingswork.tsla

(I understand there are front runners and other funds selling)

Like you're 5? Okay. Wall St. is a schoolyard bully. Elon is a nerdy kid with glasses who gets good grades in math and science. Wall St. can't speel math and science. Wall St. decided years ago to 'play-the-man' by attacking Elon in the media (the more unfair the better). This 33.3% drop from 1240 to 930 was necessary for Wall St. to feel good about themselves. The playground supervisors are off in a corner, smoking and chatting, because "it's best to let the kids work this out".

HTH.

 

[15Peter20]

"Vorsprung durch Technik" as they say. Hold on, that might be someone else...

 

[winfield100]

My message to Senator Warren:

Senator Warren,

I support 99% of your positions. I respect the road you have taken to get to where you are. However, you are WAY OFF BASE here. Musk hasn't paid taxes because he hasn't had any income to speak of in the years you mention. He takes no salary and his wealth is only due to him taking on risk, creating value to shareholders, employees and other stakeholders. However, he is currently exercising stock options and paying significant taxes, to the tune of $10-15B. That's billions, not millions, in 2021. And doing more to help human society than any other person alive. To be quite blunt, your attacks on Musk are either ignorant or dishonest, or maybe both. Or is it pure politics? I'm not sure which is worse.

I agree with you that the tax code needs to be changed/improved. But is that Elon's fault or Congress's? So yes, by all means, change the tax code. Get voting rights through. Do all the things you promise to accomplish (but can't quite seem to).

You called him a 'freeloader' on twitter today. So wrong. Musk works tirelessly to give us hope for a better future. He is doing things that others can only dream of doing. Design and build EVs that the world accepts? Check. Launch and land rockets and at least start humanity on the road to one day leave Earth? Check. Artificial intelligence that may allow paraplegics to walk again? Check. Who else is doing anything close wrt improving human society? Yes, that has made his companies very valuable and of course made him very wealthy. Good on him for that. Isn't that the dream that we sell to immigrants who come to the US of A?

Regardless of whether it's due to dishonesty or ignorance, I can no longer support you. I'm unsubscribing; perhaps if enough other voters/constituents do the same, you may change your opinion. I realize that's a cynical view (that you would change your mind based on voters' perceptions), but I am very cynical of politicians these days. I'll take engineers like Musk over politicians every day.

OT
@sroh
can you also condense this down and write letters to the editor of your local newspapers?
just the positive points

 

[Bouboule]

Hopefully you'll give us early-adopter Model S drivers a pass as we charge at 35 kW. I guess I need to buy a Plaid to further the cause....

Lol, of course I didn't mean other Tesla's when I said other EVs. I just didn't want to single out one specific brand, just pick the one you hate the most.

 

[jbcarioca]

Beautiful, amazing car, but not as good as a 1991 Honda Accord, or an E90 BMW. But the important thing for this forum is:

...

Then there was the beautiful E30 M3 convertible. Mine was returned on the lemon law following BMW's inability to repair it's many failures.
Everyone, including Tesla, has lemons. Few refuse to repair and dispute Leon findings.
TMC forums justifiably concentrate on Tesla and other BEV competitors. BMW is one that habitually releases quirky technology demonstrators like the Z1 owned,
The i8 and i3. Tesla has historically done that too. There is a price for testing not-fully-complete technology on paying customers.

FUD often results from that practice. Personally I am habitually on the 'bleeding edge'.
As investors we must face the reality that politicians are, by their nature, inclined to find fault with anyone who is not a major campaign contributor.
Watching the acute volatility of TSLA we cannot avoid the reality that Tesla business practice threatens the status quo, specifically the contributions from Fossil Fuel, auto dealers and OEM's, not to mention newspapers, television, internet and even postal mail.

It is those forces that make much FUD and spawn opposition form left, right and center politically.
As SpaceX and Tesla so clearly demonstrate, being far better can stave off poor competitors, often. Not always!

For those reasons I never will trade options in TSLA. By being the single largest part of those speculations we know irrefutably that volatility is the primary source of market maker income. When the markets become too wildly insane I stop watching..as much as I can. We all need to remember that this volatility is not real.
Just examine Tesla actual results. Ignore endless repetition of FUD from years past. Pay attention to real performance.

If I repeat this too much, it is because new people regularly are sucked Into the vortex of speculation.

 

[Buckminster]

Charging speed will get a little faster with 4680 cells but the biggest moat Tesla has is efficiency of manufacture. That's why Elon is not worried about being able to sell every car they make even as they continually ramp volume rapidly higher. He knows that Austin and Berlin are using everything they learned in Shanghai to make their factories and production processes even faster and more efficient. No one can match their unit cost (and stay in business). When you have this most important advantage, you don't have to worry about the competition. What I find most reassuring is that Tesla is not competing against others, they are competing against themselves, against the way they built cars last month. Constant improvement.

I think it's odd that so many people are still worried about competition. They worry that other manufacturers will build a car as good as Tesla without considering how much it will cost them to build each one. It's the most over-looked "moat" Tesla has against every other manufacturer and that moat is growing constantly wider, not only as Tesla out-innovates the competition when it comes to manufacturing improvements but also as Tesla ramps each model to volumes no other model can match. These two factors create a synergy between them leading to an unassailable market dominance. Without even considering AI, autonomy, robots, solar and energy storage, Tesla has insane profit potential just in auto manufacturing.

That is the advantage of disrupting an industry that allowed itself to become too smug, too bloated, too comfortable, too inefficient. "Only we know how to make quality cars in high volumes", they said. Tesla is but a flea on a giant and they only make a tiny fraction of the millions of cars we make. EV's are a niche product, if demand for EV's ever materializes we will make them in large numbers and crush Tesla.

Ho-ho-ho! Merry Christmas and happy New Year to TSLA investors! I hope everyone is fully loaded or will be very shortly.

Beautifully worded. Particularly liked the competing with themselves bit. As their market share grows, it becomes increasingly important to ensure Tesla owners stay loyal but importantly also replace their cars frequently (because a new Tesla is tangibly better than their 2 year old on the driveway). Most Tesla owners will probably never buy new - only second hand.

Most Tesla users will never be owners but that is another topic.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros have turned positive; TSLA is being capped in the pre-Market at yesterday's Closing SP:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,965.50 +40.75 (+0.26%)
As of 08:31AM EST. Market open.

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Dec 15, 2021 08:44 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$955.54 -2.97 (-0.31%)
Pre-Market Volume	217,624
Pre-Market High	$959.5 (08:31:05 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$943.2 (04:31:47 AM)

Short-faced Bear won't give up his prize easily (when extinct?)

Cheers!

 

[Stretch2727]

Ford Can’t Make EVs Fast Enough … and Might Not Want To​

Ford Can’t Make EVs Fast Enough … and Might Not Want To

With three runaway models, the company is closing its order books.

www.bloomberg.com

For those that cannot get past the paywall: Ford stopped taking orders on the F150 Lightning because it is not making as much on these as the ICE Pickups. The profits are not as good on the electric trucks.

Classic innovators dilemma.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

All I need is a little 1.5% pop so I can close out all my options for this week and get ready for the next Elon selling day. Just for a moment. At any time in the day. Let's goooooo!

 

[ZeApelido]

Like you're 5? Okay. Wall St. is a schoolyard bully. Elon is a nerdy kid with glasses who gets good grades in math and science. Wall St. can't speel math and science. Wall St. decided years ago to 'play-the-man' by attacking Elon in the media (the more unfair the better). This 33.3% drop from 1240 to 930 was necessary for Wall St. to feel good about themselves. The playground supervisors are off in a corner, smoking and chatting, because "it's best to let the kids work this out".

View attachment 744588

HTH.

And you know what you need to do with bullies? Punch them in the face.

Bring on the share dividend, Elon.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ford Can’t Make EVs Fast Enough … and Might Not Want To​

For those that cannot get past the paywall: Ford stopped taking orders on the F150 Lightning because it is not making as much on these as the ICE Pickups. The profits are not as good on the electric trucks.

That's strange, I just read that Jim Farley is one of the "Bloomberg 50" this year. Apparently he's one of the top 50 innovators in the world and has remade Ford into a leading EV company. How wonderful!

 

[Discoducky]

Premarket was green for a split second about 15 minutes ago. Max pain at $990 with several put walls, but not sure we can hold up to negative macro's. Seems like the fear index (aka the Vix) is a bit too high. I think we see it going lower intraday, but I'm hopeful we stay above $950 as support as we hit triple/quad witching Friday.