woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Just reading the vibe on TSLA social media, it‘s starting to feel like expectations are rising a little high for Elon’s roadmap update…
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
As much as we all liked to kick and scream at Garys methods. He nailed his 1200 PT, Granted we all knew where it was going, but so did he. His new 1600 could prove to be true as well. But like our mod says, Accuracy and Precision are 2 different things.
Does anyone know if future splits require share holder approval? Rumor I saw floating around somewhere.
A lot of discussion on the UK data and while I love the message (M3 top-selling BEV, and 2nd best selling vehicle overall), to borrow a common counter-argument bulls use against bears, that's just ONE market. So, let's zoom out and TL;DR it's even better than the UK results.
I poked around the summaries posted here: 2021 (November) Europe: Car Sales and Market Analysis - Car Sales Statistics
They aggregate all Europe data (excluding a couple very small markets that don't report in to the same data sources). Here are some highlights:
- Europe Best selling mid-size vehicle June 2021 - Model 3
- Europe 2nd Best Selling vehicle June 2021 - Model 3
- Europe Best selling vehicle AND BEV September 2021 - Model 3
- Europe 2nd Best Selling BEV September 2021 - Model Y
- BEV represented 26% market share in November 2021, vs. 4% in 2019
- SUVs represent nearly 9-10x TAM to mid-size segment
The Tesla wave is just getting started. The Model Y and Berlin are going to be another monstrous TAM unlock for Tesla. Bring on the roaring 20s.
The Accountant
Active Member
@Knightshade has commented on this topic often. It is his opinion that shares need to be authorized first before a share split/dividend can be announced.
As much as it amuses me that Nancy Pelosi and husband have bought deep ITM Tesla LEAPS, I agree. What do you think?
No point banning this as long as it's transparent. They are allowed to take lobbying funds anyway.
Yes that is within the bounds of normalcy/ remember that warranty costs end out there and a major portion of advertising budgets go through dealers, not to mention rebates, bonuses, parts etc. IME one OEM was ~17% and another was ~14.7%. Those two were actual real from two ohm's that I personally dealt with. These numbers vary tremendously with a wide variety of elements. Overall though, to suggest 16.5% is entirely plausible. I know fo none who can be precise about that without substantial inside information. No OEM reports it completely and directly. The higher it is the more OEMs bury the numbers as much as GAAP allows, and GAAP allows wide latitude.
People without direct experience invariably underestimate the reality. FWIW, the lower the vehicle desirability the higher that %. With high desirability dealers normally add margin directly 'market adjustment' or make 'dealer adds' mandatory or both. With lo desirability dealers are plied with huge incentives. The vast majority fo both are hidden form easy customer view.
Now, are you not glad Tesla has no dealers?
But, it’s really not transparent… their trades MAY be AFTER the fact (by often months), but the information that many politicians are getting either through the administration, committees they sit on, closed door hearings they attend, policy that they are crafting before being announced is not transparent and front running any of this is not truly an open and full disclosure market. For ANY other group of participants, it would be considered insider trading. Why not for this body - that makes the rules, well I guess I just answered my question.
Any of you guys planning/writing a book on Tesla investing?
My apologies, Nassim has it covered.
My apologies, Nassim has it covered.
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RobDickinson
Active Member
New Zealand passenger vehicle sales 2021
Nope! F&I is excluded always. rebates are included as are warranty service and OEM supported promotions and advertising, as well as parts.
Finance is distinct so even OEM extended warranty (>100% markup usually) is excluded.
Your statement about egregious is true, nowhere more Sio than with leases, but those are NOT part fo the calculation.
From a consumer perspective it is hard to buy from a dealer without the dealer gross around 20%. Because4 of accounting new car sales are often shown as minimal profit. All this can be and usually is opaque. your 'egregious' applies to the entire process.
A couple years responsible for a captive product design and marketing taught me one can NEVER trust anything said by a dealer, no matter how well they treat you.
NOTE: While in that position I had to purchase my own vehicle through a dealer, who also was on the F&I product design dealer group. The dealer asked "how much money will you let me make on this deal?". I responded and the final document added exactly 11.7% in hidden charges. I found them, and agreed to pay, but told him that he'd not ever have favors from me again and that I'd make sure others in the company knew. He revised the documents with alacrity. I carried out my pledge. he never forgive me nor I him. His rank in sales did plummet during the next year. NEVER, EVER trust a dealer. They'll cheat their own grandmothers, perhaps their own siblings.
I've just written one. Don't mind sharing it with you all on here for free:
How to Invest in TSLA
By Dangerous Fish
Chapter One
Buy as much TSLA as you can.
Chapter Two
HODL
Chapter Three
DFTM
The End
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
To be clear- they can not issue a split greater than like 1.8-1.9:1 without first authorizing more shares via shareholder vote- that's in the corporate docs, not an opinion.
What they COULD do is announce "We are PLANNING to issue a share dividend/split on Y date, PENDING approval of X additional authorized shares by a shareholder vote we intend to hold on X date" so long as X comes before Y.
AFAIK the soonest you can go from "announcing a shareholder vote" to "actually voting" is.... and I mean this not ironically at all... two weeks. (I think it's 10 business days, but too lazy to look up the exact wording).
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
Tesla released a new video about their new deployment of 81 Megapacks in Angleton, TX:
Incidentally that RIGHT side of the chart is the same as the European EV market, and will continue to look that way for a while with VW continuing their marketsshare lead for a while.. it’ll probably come down from the current 25% market share, compared to Teslas ~16%, but I think the comparison will stay in place till we get the Model 1, or whatever it is called.
Yes... until I remember their pushing enabled my gains.
Please do some more pushing, do coil up that spring some more!
Boy, this is tough to handicap, especially from abroad. I’ll easily grant you that there are likely forces pushing for approval as well as delay.
For example, I happened to be chatting with a Miele representative from Germany at one of Miele’s Experience Centers here in the US fairly recently (I have and like several of Miele’s products and highly recommend them too). She mentioned Dieselgate with a lowered voice and a shudder—I gathered from her that the fallout from that was, um, less than helpful to Miele sales (edit: as well as perhaps being damaging to her faith and pride in Germany). So I expect that there are folks in Germany who would much prefer not to have another cheating scandal emanate from the automotive side.
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