Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Creekstalker]

Current plan:

1. Keep Hodling (except for occasional college expenses for the kids. TSLA has enabled this humble educator's kids to go to far better colleges than I ever imagined!)

2. I'm buying below $900 and maybe even below $925. Holding TSLA makes more sense than holding US dollars, at least to me. What's underneath the couch cushions is losing us 7% annualized right now.

3. Rivian (RIVN) is starting to look interesting below $40/share although half that seems more rational. I bought 10 shares around $64 Friday. Rivian with a market cap of $30B-$40B with a decent cash pile and an attractive(though niche) product seems less risky than Tesla in 2011. Bear case= RIVNQ. Bull case= 10x over next 7 or so years from $30/share. Most likely= 7 volatile years rangebound between $15 and $95.

 

[betstarship]

I might be late to this...but any reasons why there's almost a 1:1 match to bitcoin and tesla in Google Search traffic since mid-2021?

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=tesla,tsla,climate%20change,bitcoin

After some searches for News in June, 2021:

Elon Musk Breaks Up With Bitcoin—or Maybe Not. Tesla Shares Surge.

The CEO of the electric vehicle maker tweeted twice late Thursday. On Friday, the stock had surged and the cryptocurrency had tumbled.

www.barrons.com

Tesla and China call out 'bitcoin' on sustainability impact

Tesla and China’s restrictions to 'bitcoin' have brought to the foreground new ways to generate more energy-efficient cryptocurrencies.

www.bbva.com

Musk says Tesla will accept bitcoin again as crypto miners use more clean energy

Tesla halted car purchases with bitcoin in mid-May due to concerns over how mining contributes to climate change.

www.cnbc.com

Bitcoin was relatively flat and lowered significantly in June 2021 to about $35k: BitcoinPrice.com

...I won't go into Kazakhstan, but that happened on 1/10/2022. There was a lead up since the first week of November in 2021, in a huge drop down in Bitcoin and TSLA price up until now.

Edit:

Another article from 6/22/2021:

Denied electricity, world’s 5th-largest mining pool leaves China for Kazakhstan

The relocation comes after the company was notified by the state grid in western Sichuan province that the power supply serving one of its local data centers would be suspended imminently.

cointelegraph.com

Also, the backdrop of Kazakhstan protests from NYTimes.

Revolt in Kazakhstan: What’s Happening, and Why It Matters (Published 2022)

As protests in the oil-rich Central Asian country gain momentum, the events threaten to reverberate across the region.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Singuy]

Current plan:

1. Keep Hodling (except for occasional college expenses for the kids. TSLA has enabled this humble educator's kids to go to far better colleges than I ever imagined!)

2. I'm buying below $900 and maybe even below $925. Holding TSLA makes more sense than holding US dollars, at least to me. What's underneath the couch cushions is losing us 7% annualized right now.

3. Rivian (RIVN) is starting to look interesting below $40/share although half that seems more rational. I bought 10 shares around $64 Friday. Rivian with a market cap of $30B-$40B with a decent cash pile and an attractive(though niche) product seems less risky than Tesla in 2011. Bear case= RIVNQ. Bull case= 10x over next 7 or so years from $30/share. Most likely= 7 volatile years rangebound between $15 and $95.

I know people love to compare any EV start ups to Tesla but beware that the expense structure between these companies companies are completely different.

I see lucid ads on youtube constantly. These companies like any start ups will sink millions and billions of dollars they don't have on advertisement just to get normal everyday people to notice who they are, something Tesla enjoys for free thanks to Musk. This alone will diverge teslas operating margins from the rest, and we are not even going to talk about the other hundreds of small little details that make Tesla different.

Tesla is the first and will likely be the only company in the auto sector that can break the trillion dollar market cap because of all things they make it ridiculously unique. As cnbc puts it after last earnings..."I guess Tesla is the only automaker that have figured out how to make money on selling cars". This statement is a game changing big deal because it shifted the paradigm on what it takes to make money in an industry that apparently was stuck for almost a century in earning expectations.

So all these new ev automakers are like the rest until they can definitive prove they are not, which I haven't seen any of them showing anything different than traditional auto.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

S&P 500 is still over 30% higher than before pandemic.

And? Might want to go and look at how much earnings have increased since the pandemic as well.

I don’t get why people point out how much an index has increase without also including how much earnings have increased. They’re tied at the hip. For whatever reason that’s always left out when people claim a crash is coming

 

[ZachF]

Significant FAANG-led tech rally coming over next two weeks: Wedbush's Ives

FAANG is played out. Most of them are at or near the top of their S-curves. I also think there is a significant and growing chance of anti-trust action looming for some of those too.

The next tech rally after bottoming will be led by Tesla and a few others who are on the bottom of their S-curves and heading for that steep sweet spot.

 

[ZachF]

And? Might want to go and look at how much earnings have increased since the pandemic as well.

I don’t get why people point out how much an index has increase without also including how much earnings have increased. They’re tied at the hip. For whatever reason that’s always left out when people claim a crash is coming

Profitability nation-wide IMHO, is unnaturally high. A lot of the pandemic relief bills had lots of stealth bailouts and giveaways for mega corps that will be ending. Also, with persistent inflation, shortages, and a slowing economy with customers real wages declining, it’s going to be hard to maintain these high margins.

 

[st_lopes]

And? Might want to go and look at how much earnings have increased since the pandemic as well.

I don’t get why people point out how much an index has increase without also including how much earnings have increased. They’re tied at the hip. For whatever reason that’s always left out when people claim a crash is coming

I much prefer people talk about current average P/E ratio as well. A metric that will make TSLA a deep value play very soon.

 

[Knightshade]

I don’t get why people point out how much an index has increase without also including how much earnings have increased. They’re tied at the hip.

Are they?

I ask because TSLA is roughly 7% above the high from last January (880), but earnings are up a WEE bit more than that since then.

 

[kabin]

There could be a stock market bump up next week with some good earnings reports but it will probably be short lived with more pain to follow.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

out : irrational exuberance
in : irrational despair

 

[kabin]

And? Might want to go and look at how much earnings have increased since the pandemic as well.

I don’t get why people point out how much an index has increase without also including how much earnings have increased. They’re tied at the hip. For whatever reason that’s always left out when people claim a crash is coming

P/E was also helped by cheap money, stock buybacks, low inflation. So far this quarter's earnings reports are showing slower earnings growth as well as reduced projected earnings growth. It's early so we'll all see how this quarter pans out.

 

[ZachF]

Are they?

I ask because TSLA is roughly 7% above the high from last January (880), but earnings are up a WEE bit more than that since then.

Tesla can be one of those stocks that can float sideways for frustratingly long times until one month it just triples in price…

I really wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla floated around $1000 all the way until 2024 then just jumped to $3500 in a couple months. (Not saying this will happen btw)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

P/E was also helped by cheap money, stock buybacks, low inflation. So far this quarter's earnings reports are showing slower earnings growth as well as reduced projected earnings growth. It's early so we'll all see how this quarter pans out.

Lol what???? The most important sector by far of the market is tech and so far only Netflix has reported (which has no bearing on big tech).......we haven't even gotten into the first inning of earnings season yet.

 

[mrmtb]

FAANG is played out. Most of them are at or near the top of their S-curves. I also think there is a significant and growing chance of anti-trust action looming for some of those too.

The next tech rally after bottoming will be led by Tesla and a few others who are on the bottom of their S-curves and heading for that steep sweet spot.

Who are the few others?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla can be one of those stocks that can float sideways for frustratingly long times until one month it just triples in price…

I really wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla floated around $1000 all the way until 2024 then just jumped to $3500 in a couple months. (Not saying this will happen btw)

Right you think there's a remote possibility TSLA could trade at a Forward P/E of 7-10........cause that's what you're saying. I know you're saying "not saying this will happen" but to put out that comment is rather silly when it has no remote possibility. You don't see any stock jump 2.5 trillion in net worth just like that.

Once again people are looking at TSLA's past performance and applying it to present when the reality of the dynamics at play are fundamentally different. TSLA traded sideways for 5 years while they lost money. TSLA traded sideways for just 4-5 months in 2021 before the fundamentals literally pushed the stock higher. TSLA is a fundamentals play at this point. If they execute with 1.5 million deliveries, it will force the stock to go higher. If they outperform that to the upside, it's just going to force the stock even higher.

Profitability nation-wide IMHO, is unnaturally high. A lot of the pandemic relief bills had lots of stealth bailouts and giveaways for mega corps that will be ending. Also, with persistent inflation, shortages, and a slowing economy with customers real wages declining, it’s going to be hard to maintain these high margins.

Sorry but there's nothing to support this. Persistent inflation? Hasn't even been remotely long enough to call it that. Shortages? Past event that is solving itself right now and considering it's the reason for inflation, will lead to deflation. Already seeing this in lumber, iron/ore, steel, etc.....

FAANG is played out. Most of them are at or near the top of their S-curves. I also think there is a significant and growing chance of anti-trust action looming for some of those too.

The next tech rally after bottoming will be led by Tesla and a few others who are on the bottom of their S-curves and heading for that steep sweet spot.

Sorry but this is incredibly wrong. Amazon? Sure. Because they haven't been able to branch out the company in meaningful new ways to expands earnings. But Microsoft/Google/FB/etc....? That growth runway in the tech shift is only in year 2 of 5. Trying to call the top of the great tech migration curve is the most flawed thing I've seen this week...and there's been nonstop flawed arguments I've seen out of fear.

 

[EVCollies]

I know I've learned so much from this board when, during the last 2.5 weeks, I'm not stressed at all about the drop in stock price, but I am fretting about not having more available cash to deploy.

Sure, my BPSs that I started writing a few weeks ago are in trouble. Luckily, I am just starting to learn about this strategy so I feel fortunate to have started very small. It's been an incredibly great learning experience (basically tuition for an incredible real-life class). And I definitely feel for those who are leveraged with margin and/or are in significant short-term bullish options positions.

But my HODL shares and LEAPs are not concerned at all. With strength of conviction comes peace of mind.

Other than the specific BPS lesson, I hope I am able to learn and retain from January 2022 that the market is crazy and unpredictable. As sure as I was that TSLA would be up going into earnings, macro events can/will have a bigger impact on SP than fundamentals, at least for some period of time. Be safe, stay conservative, limit exposure to forced trades (margin calls, expiring options) and keep some powder dry for times like these. I find the last to be next to impossible. I keep convincing myself that I will miss out on the ride.

The Great Elon Stock Sale was my first experience in rolling BPS for my life. It gave me much more confidence that you can survive temporary downturns.

 

[insaneoctane]

While there are many macro factors like inflation, Ukraine, etc....I guess we need to decide how much of last week, leading up to Friday, that Wallstreet either participated in vs orchestrated. The options activity was epic on Friday with $3.1T worth of options expiring. Coincidentally, the market tanked. The higher percentage probability that you assign to the notion that WS caused last week vs participated, gives you more conviction of a magical bounce next week. We are mere ants guessing and everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I know where I land on my predictions....

 

[ZachF]

Right you think there's a remote possibility TSLA could trade at a Forward P/E of 7-10........cause that's what you're saying. I know you're saying "not saying this will happen" but to put out that comment is rather silly when it has no remote possibility. You don't see any stock jump 2.5 trillion in net worth just like that.

Once again people are looking at TSLA's past performance and applying it to present when the reality of the dynamics at play are fundamentally different. TSLA traded sideways for 5 years while they lost money. TSLA traded sideways for just 4-5 months in 2021 before the fundamentals literally pushed the stock higher. TSLA is a fundamentals play at this point. If they execute with 1.5 million deliveries, it will force the stock to go higher. If they outperform that to the upside, it's just going to force the stock even higher.

Sorry but there's nothing to support this. Persistent inflation? Hasn't even been remotely long enough to call it that. Shortages? Past event that is solving itself right now and considering it's the reason for inflation, will lead to deflation. Already seeing this in lumber, iron/ore, steel, etc.....


Sorry but this is incredibly wrong. Amazon? Sure. Because they haven't been able to branch out the company in meaningful new ways to expands earnings. But Microsoft/Google/FB/etc....? That growth runway in the tech shift is only in year 2 of 5. Trying to call the top of the great tech migration curve is the most flawed thing I've seen this week...and there's been nonstop flawed arguments I've seen out of fear.

I’m guessing you weren’t old enough to be around for 2008 and 2000…

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’m guessing you weren’t old enough to be around for 2008 and 2000…

Right a dot.com bubble that has zero characteristics to now. The S&P P/E multiple was at 45 when the dot.com bubble hit. Today's P/E is 25, will drop after the next two weeks of earnings even if stocks don't drop, and is fueled by Big Tech earnings that are as strong as ever and not going anywhere. And in reality, the S&P P/E back in 2000 was much more stretched than that because you had so many companies that has no earnings to speak of. Said companies nowadays have already gone through 50% reductions. Meanwhile Big Tech accounts for the majority of the earnings nowadays.

And 2008, a housing crisis brought on by the banks themselves who are now regulated more and where statistics are household income, debt, and discretionary spending are the opposite of where they were in 2008.

Please tell......where are the similarities in characteristics because I lived through both and neither are like the environment today

 

[Dig deeper]

I’m guessing you weren’t old enough to be around for 2008 and 2000…

Im guessing you forgot what rates were back then.