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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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That's the rough part. Can't buy any of the super high premium Friday calls. If we're <$950 at noon tomorrow I'll buy a bunch, but I'm not that lucky.
Yup... I don't think buying weeklies is real smart this week with the premiums, but shares will have a large jump with much less risk. Also, selling calls this week could be insanely profitable. If we get a jump to ~1000-1050 by the end of tomorrow, I'd bet 1200s are >$8. 1300s could be over $3.
 
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The options premiums this week are through the roof... If Powell is dovish and Tesla reports earnings above $2.50 (I expect both and Tesla might be close to $3), we could see a massive climb to end the week. Not sure if ATHs are in the cards, but it really wouldn't surprise me. A ~10% move is being priced in right now.

IBKR just sent an alert on the upcoming ER:

Consensus EPS: $2.23
Consensus Revenue: $16.1B
Implies move: +/- 12.6% (implied move is the absolute value of the change price calculated based on implied volatility of options for this stock)
 

Everyone keep your expectations in check cause we all know how these twitter "sources" work out......as in it's practically a roll of dice. But there's an awful lot of coincidental pieces of information around the Cybertruck that's suggesting early production.
Not sure if you missed this but @buttershrimp has been a part of this and the "other" thread for a long time and is a sarcastic one for sure and I love him for it.
So I would put a small wager on him just playing around.....
 
That's the rough part. Can't buy any of the super high premium Friday calls. If we're <$950 at noon tomorrow I'll buy a bunch, but I'm not that lucky.
Which strike might you want to consider, @TheTalkingMule ?

-Though I'm mostly addicted to LEAP "optiods"... (see what I did there?? PM me for my rate chart anyone wants to borrow that). 😝
 
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Not sure if you missed this but @buttershrimp has been a part of this and the "other" thread for a long time and is a sarcastic one for sure and I love him for it.
So I would put a small wager on him just playing around.....
Gotcha, so Buttershrimp is a joyful epic troll that loves watching TSLA twitter meltdowns :p jk
 
IBKR just sent an alert on the upcoming ER:

Consensus EPS: $2.23
Consensus Revenue: $16.1B
Implies move: +/- 12.6% (implied move is the absolute value of the change price calculated based on implied volatility of options for this stock)
Seems about right for the premiums. I think the market is expecting a solid beat and a solid beat would send a ~15% move to the stock. Just hitting expectations will probably push back to ~1025. ~2.65-2.70 and a dovish Fed should bring 1100 into play this week. >2.80 could push it to 1175+.

But next week is where the fireworks will really get going and will go through the quarter. That will bring into focus 2022 EPS estimate upgrades (many will have to go above 10 for the first time and 12 is really the minimum of where they should be), but also 2023 estimates will start to have more valuation power. Both are going to be revised sharply up and while 2022 multiples will decrease to the ~75-90x range... 2023 multiples should be hitting about 100-125x by mid April and be primary driver of the stock price at that point.
 
OT: If anyone is interested what that German guy did to get access to some Tesla’s, here‘s his explanation: How I got access to 25+ Tesla’s around the world. By accident. And curiosity.
Basically insecure third party software, made worse because everybody can host it themselves.
Please create a separate thread if this needs to be discussed.
I explained in this thread: Investor Engineering Discussions

TL;DR- Willing to engage on this issue, but the short answer is that when you share your login information with 3rd parties, you are simply at risk. I wouldn't share this data with any 3rd parties.
 
“In fact, the house of cards is slowly starting to crumble already. More and more supporters of the brand are starting to take off the rose-tinted glasses they've been using to look at the company through so far and see the real problems a lot of existing customers are facing.”


I don’t know what this guy is talking about. Anyone?
More FUD! When are they going to have something new to spread?