Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeAtkinson]

The 25K car questions have been formulated terribly wrong. Elon even said that. Once somebody asks about 25K car and Tesla in fact is working on 25.24K car, Elon is not obigated to answer this question. LOL. This has been going on for months now.

One interpretation is that Tesla is working on vehicle(s) optimised for robo-taxi, just not one that would cost as little as $25K.

Elon learnt his lesson with the $35K Model 3. Between announcement and being ready to sell the cheapest version inflation had increased that $35K to about $38K, but they had to sell it for $35K (as a special order). He will make sure he does not commit to a price many years before production starts, especially if inflation is higher now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm thinking that Model Y demand, CT demand, FSD timeline have changed that substantially. Once you get FSD, can just make robotaxi's when demand slows for non-robotaxis.

So, robotaxis fills the gap that the $25k car did previously.

That might not be the answer folks want to hear though, but I'm really happy for my CT reservations with this in mind.

Maybe, but doesn't mesh with the "50%+ growth" guidance. Not even close. Model 3/Y gives Tesla a TAM of perhaps 5M cars per year. That's 2 doublings away from 20M/yr: that's the Model 2 to 10M/yr, then Model 1. to 20M/yr. Math doesn't add up otherwise.

Further, Elon stated on today's Call that Tesla would continue to look for new factory sites in 2022, and make an announcement likely near the end of the year.

Tesla can get to 5M/yr Models 3/Y with just the 4 existing factories. The stated intention to build beyond this is clear evidence of intention to expand capacity beyond 5M/yr. That requires new cheaper models to expand the TAM.

That big, shiny new R&D facility at Shanghai wasn't build to choose new paint colors. I thing that Elon is sandbagging new products because he wants the ramps of existing products to be much further along than they are now in Jan 2022.

At least he didn't predict the next recession again, wot?

Cheers!

 

[RobDickinson]

My takeaway is that Elon is much further ahead than we all are.

Tesla - Elon, Zack etc have mapped out 10 years of products, factories and ramping. They've done this a few years ago when they realised the industry isnt picking up the challenge.

Thats why we had battery day, talking about their cell needs for a decade in the future.

I think sometime last year they realised their 50% growth yoy isnt going to be enough...

 

[Singuy]

I'm thinking that Model Y demand, CT demand, FSD timeline have changed that substantially. Once you get FSD, can just make robotaxi's when demand slows for non-robotaxis.

So, robotaxis fills the gap that the $25k car did previously.

That might not be the answer folks want to hear though, but I'm really happy for my CT reservations with this in mind.

Lets see how low Tesla will drop AH. This answer pretty much killed momentum. At a time when P/E is contracting, institutional investors are not into story stocks. Elon pretty much guided for FSD robotaxi revenue to sustain their guide of over 50% yoy growth 2024 and beyond. If FSD revenue was said, it would have been more credible, however there's finite amount of people willing to pay over 50k for a car.

 

[RobDickinson]

But, you were DRIVING the car… I do think a proctored vehicle is going to have less/fewer/even none (although apparently not the case) of these incidents. When someone thinks ”this is MY car because I ordered it and I’m in it now, some people won’t be on their best behavior”: I think I’m going to start a poll in the Model Y forum to see how many owners are willing to put their cares into this pool and at what $$ would they require It.

Why do people think robotaxi will be some lawless wasteland? You book a car with an account that has payment linked to it and likely a user score/rating.

If you leave a mess it will get reported, you will be billed for cleaning.

 

[CLK350]

That was an unusual and surprising conference call. It did NOT go anywhere near the way I expected it to.

- No CT until well into 2023?
- Not working on the $25K car at all right now?!!?
- FSD solved in late 2022??!?!? (I don't believe this....)
- 50% production growth in 2022 EVEN WITHOUT the two new factories??!??!

I was very disappointed in the product roadmap regarding the CT and Model "2", yet much of what was said is Super Bullish from an investor point of view.

I think I'm going to need some time to digest it a bit.

Road map: "Everything pales in comparison to the value of RoboTaxi and FSD" Elon - Tesla is an AI company more than a car company - he reiterated the point multiple times, even actually included "Optimus Prime" in the roadmap of future products together with CT, Roaster etc

From an investor POV FSD is like an option for the stock - and it's all long term (2- 5+ years) - also big future revenue source, insurance re FSD feedback changing driving behavior of drivers, with Texas data supporting it (and dibs at California who is opposed to this )

 

[Oveeus]

My take on this Earning...

Kinda what I hypothesized, 4680 supply is still limited from other partners. Kato would produce whatever it got for Austin. The surprising part is that they decided for Austin to use it solely on its Model Y's production. But as I've said in my previous comments coming into Q4 ER, it doesn't make sense to have a factory production line that is looking to ramp up to be waiting for batteries. Thus, I guess the decision to do MY only is justified.

Today Tesla team also confirmed that 4680 is a format that's going out with all Tesla battery cell partners. Yes, it doesn't always make sense to use 4680 on everything, but I think at some point, with Austin (seemly only take 4680) and Berlin (designed for 4680, but can adapt 2170) all being most efficient with 4680, it's not hard to eventually see all cars coming from those 2 or future Gigas to be 4680 only once supply can satisfy them.

 

[nativewolf]

I helped set up the labeling workforce when I was at Tesla and it could very well have expanded to India or other countries. I have good reason to believe they are still using the same company today.

Ahh, excellent. I used to own a business process outsourcing company. India it was. I sold it to go back to my roots. Technology was eating more and more of the pie. i've wondered what happened to everything with Covid. I mean image labeling...do it from home I suppose. But critical HR processes...??

 

[PeterJA]

I always like to ask people this question when this topic comes up.. If YOU bought a 55-70K Model Y, would you really like for it to go out and pickup passengers daily, doing it‘s FSD, possibly having people vomit in the car, bring their pets, dirty shoes, eating, drinking in the car? The list goes on. Is that really how you’d like your 55-70K asset to be used? I guess at some point it matters in just how much $$ am I going to get daily, weekly, monthly, but if its MY regular car I don’t really know what %% of owners in this luxury category are really going to want to do that with their car.

And not to mention the obvious which is, I really don’t think FSD is going to actually be capable of any of this in CY2022.. A) I don’t think the technology will be there, reliability, safely or on even a limited adoption scale and B) I don’t know that they are ready at all to get the regulatory approval from this almost anywhere in the USA at this point, buy EOY 2022. As always, we’ll see.

I think the bigger news of any real value is that CT is probably a mid-late 2023 story. There area a lot of entrants in the truck space doing actual deliveries and ramping deliveries now who are going to get that first mover advantage and traction before Tesla. from what Elon said, I don’t see CT trying to compete in that space, possibly due to price - the EV medium duty Truck space, but it’ll sure be interesting what that looks like in Mid 2023 when GM, Ford and possibly STLA are putting EV trucks on the road by EOY 2022 and early 2023.

This FUD about vomit in robotaxis really needs to die. If abuse of rented cars is such a problem, how do existing car rental companies stay in business? Or limousine companies? Or Airbnb?

If you abuse my robotaxi, Tesla will charge your credit card for the cost of cleanup/repair, and ban you from ever renting one again. End of problem.

How is your formidable (no sarcasm) magic 8 ball unable to see that?

 

[FireMedic]

Nope. That only got it to 955. I'm watching live time & sales during the call. Peaked pretty much just as Elon turned it over to Zach. Been heading down since, even with Elon speaking now. When Elon said FSD this year that did cause an $9 dip for a short while.

Who cares? I’m just mad at myself for not having a buy order at $880. As soon as I got the order in those were all sold out.

Probably best not to have another gap to fill at $940 anyway. Give the bots time to process what they saw/heard.

 

[Knightshade]

Maybe, but doesn't mesh with the "50%+ growth" guidance. Not even close. Model 3/Y gives Tesla a TAM of perhaps 5M cars per year. That's 2 doublings away from 20M/yr: that's the Model 2 to 10M/yr, then Model 1. to 20M/yr. Math doesn't add up otherwise.

That's what the analyst was trying to point out in his question... how are you thinking of maintining this growth without more, cheaper, models.

Elons entire answer was another monologue on how transformative FSD/Robotaxi is.


Also not sure why you keep saying Model 2, when Elon himself debunked that name at the 2021 annual shareholders meeting.

 

[RobDickinson]

My take on this Earning...

Kinda what I hypothesized, 4680 supply is still limited from other partners. Kato would produce whatever it got for Austin. The surprising part is that they decided for Austin to use it solely on its Model Y's production. But as I've said in my previous comments coming into Q4 ER, it doesn't make sense to have a factory production line that is looking to ramp up to be waiting for batteries. Thus, I guess the decision to do MY only is justified.

Today Tesla team also confirmed that 4680 is a format that's going out with all Tesla battery cell partners. Yes, it doesn't always make sense to use 4680 on everything, but I think at some point, with Austin (seemly only take 4680) and Berlin (designed for 4680, but can adapt 2170) all being most efficient with 4680, it's not hard to eventually see all cars coming from those 2 or future Gigas to be 4680 only once supply can satisfy them.

Austins own 4680 lines will be running well before the CT needs them

Kato can only sustain a limited ramp of the Y

 

[JRP3]

Not at all happy about Semi and Cybertruck, or with Elon's FSD "prediction". I predict he'll be wrong yet again. The focus on Optimus sub-prime is interesting, and I'm glad they are not working on the $25K car, but for me this was a very disappointing call.

 

[Discoducky]

Maybe, but doesn't mesh with the "50%+ growth" guidance. Not even close. Model 3/Y gives Tesla a TAM of perhaps 5M cars per year. That's 2 doublings away from 20M/yr: that's the Model 2 to 10M/yr, then Model 1. to 20M/yr. Math doesn't add up otherwise.

I see what you are saying, however, the TAM calculation must include the TAM of a large fraction of public transportation.

 

[aronth5]

I suspect spending is much more focused on FSD. Didn't Andrei tell us recently that they have 2,000 human "Labelers" working in the FSD training program. Bay area employees aren't cheep...

Too bad the "not-a-roadmap" didn't mention a word about DOJO (just the 'this year in Jerusalem' line again). The lack of relevent detail was noticable.

Not just Bay area employees, Buffalo as well
https://mobile.twitter.com/giganewyork

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I think it's clear that Elon sees that anybody who can afford a $25K car, but not a Model 3, would find it an obvious choice to just use a robotaxi. So FSD means the market moves to robotaxi fleets.

If we take robotaxis *really* seriously, they are worth a lot: 'A big number'.

They robotaxi lifetime value and price (subscription) dominates the cost of the car.
It doesn't matter anymore if the car costs 25K or 50K - FSD makes the car worth 'a nutty amount' over its lifetime.

It is the same reason Elon is talking cybertruck down: It is not strictly needed in the robotaxi future.
Nice to have, not need to have.

 

[tivoboy]

Who cares? I’m just mad at myself for not having a buy order at $880. As soon as I got the order in those were all sold out.

Probably best not to have another gap to fill at $940 anyway. Give the bots time to process what they saw/heard.

There will be, another

 

[RobDickinson]

Dont know why people are pissed about the CT timeline it doesnt look like its changed since last time it was talked about.


Were people expecting a new reveal and summer launch?

 

[Jeeps17]

Yeah, about that. That'd be the end of civilization on Mars... Elon needs the 'bots to build his colony, human's are too fragile, too expensive, breath too much oxygen, and are too unproductive to work on Mars.

Meanwhile, in Shanghai at least, human workers will outperform bots for the forseeable future. Berlin? Still TBD.

Ceres!

Optimus = Beltalowda ?

The Expanse storyline would have played out rather differently, but it is certainly a possible future variant of accessing the near-unlimited resources of the Belt. The economic potential there, once the technical hurdles are sorted out, is truly mind-boggling.

Optimus = MCRN would be another, possibly more interesting one (with Elon = Duarte ).

 

[MartinAustin]

What some are piecing together here is, Tesla will introduce FSD and robotaxi software, and Model 3 & Y owners will be able to offer their cars for rides for as little as $5 a ride - or less - depending on the distance and so on. A dollar a mile? There are a lot of people who can't afford a $25,000 new car and would have trouble paying for a $16,000 new car. But they are always open to buying an $8,000 used car or a $5,000 used car. Such cars aren't as safe to drive and usually come with a list of repairs or things that need to be done on them. If you can ride in a new-ish $40,000+ smooth+quiet electric car that drives itself, won't get into a crash, is very safe for you if someone else crashes into you, and you don't need to insure it or pay for parking it anywhere, and it only costs you $5, you are going to do it and work out how to avoid buying your own car. This is why the market for the $25,000 car isn't as strong as we think it might be. Anywhere globally. Because Tesla are working on FSD first. We should be thinking of the $25,000 car as the "$25,000 individually-owned and driven" car. In that light, it doesn't seem as important.