Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

I said nothing about Tesla’s future, fundamentals, financials…etc.

All I said was that this reaction was predictable from the market. This is nothing new.

Touche!

 

[thx1139]

Did people honestly think there would be a positive reaction to products unveiled 3-5 years ago being delayed yet again?

Just think these analysts should be smarter. Do you sacrifice sales of higher priced, higher margin products to make lower priced, lower margin products. Its like they dont pay attention the the huge backlog of orders Tesla has.

 

[nativewolf]

Said they'll achieve 50% growth with only Fremont and Shanghai. Plus they always have a cautious outlook every earnings, bring up problems they're facing, tone is always off.

Tone was spot on last call. No EM on the last call though

 

[The Accountant]

Damn Elon
Yesterday he told us that Tesla would grow more than 50% this year with Fremont and Shanghai alone.
My 2022 model assumed only 42% growth at Fremont/Shanghai combined.

Here are my thoughts on 2022:
Q1 will be good (even with Austin/Berlin drag on margins)
Q2 will be great
Q3 will be epic
Q4 will confirm Q3 was no fluke.

The price action today is temporary. Tesla is focused on execution this year and we will see the results of this in the quarterly results. Be patient.

 

[Flehmenlips]

Based on the stock price activity it is clear to me that the TSLA algo-bots use this thread as their primary feedstock.

 

[elasalle]

Article says shares are falling because factories are running below capacity
Isn't 50% growth with factories running below capacity amazing?

 

[Unpilot]

"they" are not going to let it go down 10% are they.

 

[mongo]

I am talking about today's price action which I already posted my prediction earlier. It's not a prediction going forward, just for today.

Ok, I was addressing:

Elon said FSD being the main driver of growth post 2024?

you must have meant that as the market's take, not the actual message of the call.

 

[FS_FRA]

Elon likely should not have been on the call yesterday. It set expectations for a big announcement for the call, which just never happened. It took the focus off of what was a very good quarter and what was good forward guidance. We are paying the price for that today. Hopefully, once the market settles and realizes that Tesla is still leaps-and-bounds ahead of the competition in a space with explosive growth, we will see the stock reflect the reality of the future of Tesla.

I think Elon should be banned from ER's in future. He doesn't have an appreciation for the nuance in the delivery of the message required for the audience. Zach does. There is too much at stake considering the $1TN valuation and all that...

He needs to be given other platforms where he can do roadmaps etc. The audience at these (Battery, AI, etc. days, or even short 1h presentations) will lap it up and more importantly will understand. And in between doing those he should do what Elon does: create the most amazing products to solve the biggest challenges of the world today.

Just don't talk about that on an ER in a macro-bloodbath period. Or any other period.

Analysts, investment bankers, pensions funds, etc. need data presented without fluff. Elon on the call is/was a disaster. Considering his hatred for short sellers, he really needs to see that his waxing lyrical over futurology ('cause that's what it is to 95% of listeners) feeds the short's narrative and a -8% reaction in TSLA the immediate next day is the result.

And before some of you scream: but HODL, there are a tremendous amount of retail investors that are HODL'ing and doing options for income that are massively affected by this.

 

[betstarship]

Has this been shared? Looks like a San Antonio win is close.

Musk’s Boring Co. a finalist in S.A. transportation project

Alamo Regional Mobility Authority will consider two proposals for projects to carry...

www.expressnews.com

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Yup and saying FSD is the answer to future growth and profits is going to scare investors that don't believe in Tesla's approach. I'm not in the least bit concerned about the stock in the long term (or even short term), but the call was a miss and unfocused.

Exactly. FSD is always a year away for Tesla. Everybody’s used to hearing that. Talking specifically about FSD being later this year only cements it in everybody’s head that it is probably years away from mass release and that’s at level 2. Level 4 is probably closer to a decade. Huge mistake talking about FSD the way he did.

I do like the fact they are concentrating on the vehicles they have right now. Semis, Cybertrucks and model 2’s will come. But sacrificing current production at this moment in time is probably unwise.

Wish he would have mentioned service growth a bit. It’s a huge concern for everyone we have talked to. Our service experience has been excellent but many potential customers are under the impression service and parts is non existent.

Overall I think the EC was okay...in an Elon sort of way. Still kinda prefer his un-rehearsed approach to public speaking.

 

[insaneoctane]

The way I figure it is once robotaxi is enabled it's simple math.

1,000,000 lifetime miles
$0.20 revenue per mile
$200,000 total revenue
-$57,000 cost of vehicle
$143,000 profit / 10 years
~25% annual return on investment

If the numbers line up to something like this I'll be buying as many as I can to go make me money.

With Elon's focus on FSD vs $25K EV....this math helps illustrate his thinking....the math above is crazy with a $57K EV or a $25K EV because of FSD....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yup and saying FSD is the answer to future growth and profits is going to scare investors that don't believe in Tesla's approach. I'm not in the least bit concerned about the stock in the long term (or even short term), but the call was a miss and unfocused.

You know you guys can sell, right? If you don't like Elon's scattered tone there's always GM, they're right on point with every presentation!

 

[viridi]

MMs doing all they can to hold TSLA below the lower BB ($871.69 at the moment). The spoofing, as one would expect, is very prevalent today.

 

[Boomer19]

no support, none

 

[bkp_duke]

The call was a disaster. The tone was all wrong. They should have kept driving the point that while there may be more supply chain challenges, they are confident in their 50% growth target, the two new factories have started production, and earnings will be even higher this year. They should literally have said that at the end of every question instead of sounding negative.

Spot on. There was too much "pie in the sky" with minimal substances for those items. That talk is great for Tesla enthusiasts, it's not for TSLA investors unless you can provide something concrete for them to focus on. And let's face it, Elon's timeline projections have a historically poor accuracy rate.

Optimus Subprime - who cares until you can show it working along side a human and doing at least as good a work as them?
FSD - this is getting old. We understand as core enthusiasts, but he needs to keep a lid on this until he's able to show it's 100X or more better than a human.


The fundamentals of the company are SPECTACULAR. THAT should have been the focus of the call. The rest should have been held back till "better cooked".

 

[MP3Mike]

This can be easily checked in settings/software or you could look at the bottom right of the map itself and it should say something like "map by Google".

I don't think that is true. All that tells you is that the display map is coming from Google, which it always has. That doesn't tell you anything about the source of the map data used by the navigation system and FSD.

 

[SOULPEDL]

For me, it has less to do with AI and FSD being amazing. I think it is!

It has more to do with the greater pressing problem of the intent of the mission for Tesla: to move the world to sustainability faster.

Does AI/FSD do that over building out EV cars and pushing the other automakers to do so? If both are being run in parallel, are resources being distracted rather than focused in highest priority items in the organization? As an investor, I'm trying to pay attention to this as Tesla gets bigger (now ~$1T market cap rather than $5B) and works to continue the mission until its done ... and how well it does that.

Pushing the other automakers didn't work, it's over already. I've concluded legacy/new will not help because their shifting timelines don't add up to a hill of beans. FSD and robotaxi are the trigger that makes a gas car just way too expensive to operate, maintain, or insure. Useless goals "by 2025, 2030" are for the shareholders of legacy only, or for some political or monetary gain.

It's all about utility now. In manufacturing terms, it's MU or Machine Utilization. I bet it's an indicator hanging on the wall in Elon's office. The factory continues even after the sale of the vehicle - it produces mobility for the next 10-20 yrs. Currently they have a very low MU. It's quite obvious where the mission constraint is, and FSD it the accelerant.

Let's face it, I'm part of the problem putting on a mere 6,000 mi in 1 full year on our Model Y, and that's our main vehicle. I bet we have a few more folks here that fall into this bucket. But I'm also willing to rent them out as part of the solution and make some coin in the process. The puke in the car is par - reminds me why I don't drink, feel sorry for them.

But please, let's not re-hash how you're not renting your vehicle! Plenty of other ways to bring up the MU. Hertz is a good one for example.

 

[canoemore]

Very frustrating short-term. Ah well. Another year of asymmetric information about the future means more shares for less money for me.

I think that lining is more silver than gray, at least when the sun eventually comes out.

 

[Boomer19]

…it’s pretty bad when even lodger’s a little p!ssed!