Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Disagree on just this one part (the rest of your comment is pure gold). The 25K Model is NOT delayed, that's a narrative cooked up by the financial media and analysts (which you've somehow internalized).

Telsa stated during the June 2019 AGM an aspirational goal to produce a $25K compact car in 3 or 4 years. There has NEVER been a schedule for its release, hence there can be no "delay".

Even Tesla's own quarterly Investor's letter has stated these words for many Quarters: "Future Project: In Development". There IS. NO. DELAY. Wall St. made one up to crash the SP.

Further, the 25K compact car is not even past the "aspirational" range stated 2.5 years ago. Yet people blindly parrot the "delayed" narrative, as if it was the case.

This is how the hedgies beat you, by getting you to repeat their falsehoods. Another win for the hedgies.

2019 Autonomy Day: didn't find full transcript: Elon Musk claims Tesla cars could be sold without steering wheels and pedals within three years
Robotaxi next year, “Probably, two years from now, we’ll make a product that has no steering wheels and pedals, and if we need to accelerate that time, we’ll just delete parts. It’s easy.”

2020 Battery day:Tesla 2020 Battery Day Transcript September 22
"And I think probably, like I said, about three years from now, we’re confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that’s also fully autonomous."

Sure, 'about 3 years', 'can make', but focusing on timing wording overlooks the most critical gating function: fully autonomous.
Thus, no one should even begin to expect the $25k car until after FSD is fully operational.
And there are cells...
And there are chips...
And there is factory capacity...

 

[Artful Dodger]

There is nothing in Zach's statement about 2023. 2023 is going to be clearly below 50%. 2024 as well.

You’re flat out wrong. Laughably wrong.

2023:

Fremont 750k
Shanghai 1 million
Berlin 400k
Austin 500k

Total 2.65 million for 2023

2024

Fremont 750k
Shanghai 1.25 million
Austin 1 million
Berlin 750k
Tesla Energy - equivalent of 500k

Total 4.25 million

Yeah, except your predictions are ALSO too low for Shanghai. Recall the Environmental Impact Statement Tesla filed in Nov 2021, they said their expansion project at Giga Shanghai would be complete in April 2022 (see Wu Wa's videos of "BMP-2" in the SW quadrant).

This is almost certainly to support a 4th GA line, the 2nd Model 2 line in the Phase 1 GA hall. This 4th GA line will result in an annualized production run-rate of 1.2M at Giga Shanghai sometime during calendar 2022. So that becomes their minimum production for 2023/4, and that's w/o other expansions.

The plain reason why @Troy Q1 2021 production estimates were so dramatically wrong (no, twitter updates in the last 2 days of the quarter AREN'T predictions, Troy) was because he failed to understand that there even WAS a 2nd Model Y line coming online in Shanghai during Q4.

Now, he's repeating his mistake with the 2nd Model 3 line, while ignoring the obvious building contruction ground preparation underway on the land parcel to the NE of Phase 1. They're not growing watermelons there, no matter what unrelated quotes you want to pull from the conference call. I expect over 2.2M from Giga Shanghai alone in 2024 (about a million more than your estimate above)

Troy, what IS obvious is that Tesla will pace new facility contruction as they require. They are NOT constrainded by capital, and semi-conductor constraints will be over by then. 2nd GA lines can easily (and will be) added at both Austin and Berlin, and the 2024 time frame derisks any permit delay concerns. Adding modules of new production is far easier than 1st builds.

TL;dr Troy is mainly wrong, but I sure his Patreon's will continue to lap up his grist.

 

[Unpilot]

Disclosure time.
I had hoped that a blowout 4th quarter and full year numbers would blow the stock up. So I bought some 1/28 calls, which died a horrible death.

Then I thought well ok, but surely they can't be that stupid, so I bought some 2/4 calls which are now on life support.
My portfolio has dropped by multimillion paper dollars in the last several weeks.

My only regret is that I wish I had just bought more stock and stopped my YOLOing (I still blame the mule)

When I started investing in Tesla in 2017 I was so impressed by the product and the car and of course EM I put my entire 401K into the stock.
Yep, I went 100% in on Tesla.

After the recent fall in SP, my only regret is I don't have any dry powder to buy more.

This is the most transformational company I have ever seen and most likely will ever see.
If they just stuck with energy and EV's it would be still the most amazing company.

But because it is led by such a visionary leader Who you know ACTUALLY LEADS (#Marydidn'tlead) I now know this company will be bigger than even I thought possible.

General AI? Tesla BOT? FSD? I did not see any of that in 2017!

If I were EM I would not tweak the President or weigh in on COVID related issues.
But man when one man can get SO MUCH right the things I THINK are wrong ...there just footnotes.

Still 100% in and behind Tesla and EM.

Edit to say THIS is one more reason (as if we need any more) to support The transition from ICE.

Peru oil spill after Tonga eruption bigger than previously thought

The ecological disaster, linked to Tonga's tsunami, is said to be double the size first reported.

www.bbc.com

 

[elasalle]

same old signs, brokerages nudging shares away from margin users, emails sent to people suggesting they diversify, someone actually looks to have requested reporter(s) create a story about damage done to margin-using tesla shareholders, meanwhile rando commenter$ show up to spread doubt and outrage over nothing.
I see the classic oil banks doing another shakedown using their own holdings in EV companies.

Let them play the short game, and you turn around and play the long game.

DON'T PANIC .... that's what they want you to do
DON'T be too attached to your portfolio value. As long as shares are intact, who cares. (mentally hard)
DON'T be too greedy or too smart and go overboard on margin in good times..... these events are mostly to flush out the greedy and smart Alec's and make them lose their shirt.
If you can, have cash in hand to take advantage of 10-20% dips, diversify. (Personally all in TSLA, but at tops I do sell my 401K account where I cannot stock pick and wait for dips .... that way feel good on big drops since at least i can buy some more)

So ...
HODL/Diamond hands
Buy more shares
Buy LEAPS and let the suckers lock in their shares for 2 years. Once the call strikes are reached, the shares are basically dead money for them ... bigger bang for the buck with far OTM options ... more leverage
If the story is intact, time will heal and bring things back to the normal

timing the bottom is hard, but taking advantage of some thing so obvious is kinda easy (needs some guts though)

BEAR raid once shame on you MM, BEAR raid twice (and not taking advantage of the situation) .... shame on me(small fry retail investor)

Get Rich or die EVing

Let the pigs get slaughtered, and the donkeys (FUD media) bray as much as they want
Hate the playa, but don't hate the game

 

[jerry33]

I struck up a conversation here in Florida today with someone from Switzerland. His son is about to graduate college there, and I asked him what his son plans to do after graduation. "He wants to work for Elon Musk. But he knows how unlikely that is, because everyone wants to, and it's super competitive to get a job at one of his companies."

I am in agreement with the many posters here that Musk is a poor public speaker, particularly on earnings calls and product launches. He rambles, he digresses, he mumbles.

Yet despite all that (or partly because of it?) the graduating class of 2022 is completely enamored with him. So, before you post another rant about Musk's shortcomings, ask yourself this: How many people in this world want to work for you?

But he also says what he thinks at the time rather than "as will please his listeners" using polished speeches and half truths (or outright lies). I know which oratory style I would rather listen to. And usually he's correct even if the mobs can't see it. Of course, his remarks on timing aren't that accurate, but he's said that himself. In almost all cases he gets it done, even if it's not at the time he predicted.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

You’re flat out wrong. Laughably wrong.


Yeah, exept that's ALSO too low for Shanghai. In an environmental impact statement filed in Nov 2021, Tesla said that their expansion project at Giga Shanghai would be complete by April 2022. This is almost certainly for a 4th GA line, and the 2nd Model 2 line at the factory. This 4th GA line will take GigaShanghai to an annualized run-rate of 1.2M sometime during calendar 2022. So that's their minimin production for 2023/4, and w/o other expansions.

The plain reason why @Troy Q1 2021 production estimates were so dramatically wrong (no, twitter updates in the last 2 days of the quarter AREN'T predictions, Troy) was because he failed to understand that there even WAS a 2nd Model Y line coming online in Shanghai.

Now, he's repeating his mistake with the 2nd Model 3 line, while ignoring the obvious building contruction ground preparation underway on the land parcel to the NE of Phase 1. They're not growing watermelons there, no matter what unrelated quotes you want to pull from the conference call. I expect over 2.2M from Giga Shanghai alone in 2024 (about a million more than your estimate above)

Troy, what IS obvious is that Tesla will pace new facility contruction as they require. They are NOT constrainded by capital, and semi-conductor constraints will be over by then. 2nd GA lines can easily (and will be) added at both Austin and Berlin, and the 2024 time frame derisks any permit delay concerns.

TL;dr Troy is mainly wrong, but I sure his Patreon's will continue to lap up his grist.

Each pair of casting machines produces enough casts for 250,000 cars, even allowing for downtime. There are 8 casting machines planned for Berlin and there is room for at least 14, perhaps up to 20 in Austin. The clear implication is that Berlin phase 1 can reach 1M and Austin 1.75M (perhaps up to 2.5M).

There are at least two casting machines installed at Berlin and three installed at Austin (with another one being built). So casting machine capacity is 250,000 in each of Berlin and Austin (which will soon have its capacity raised to 500,000). New casting machines seem to be delivered every couple of months, so by the end of year capacity between the two plants will be 1.5M.

If Fremont and Shanghai between them can produce 1.5M this year, it does not seem too much of a stretch for Berlin and Austin to produce 0.5M.

Next year Tesla could have 1.5M from Shanghai, 1.5M from Austin, 0.5M from Fremont and 0.6M from Berlin.

For 2024 I expect over 4M between Shanghai and Austin, another 1.7M from Fremont and Berlin and another couple of factories ramping up.

 

[Buckminster]

Wow, loving the new paradigm posts from you all. Elon will make hyper bulls of us all.

Reminder on some relevant threads as I'm not sure how long Optimus chat will sit alongside "stock just went down $10" for long:
Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations
Tesla humanoid robot
Super Bulls Only
Tesla HVAC
Artificial Intelligence
Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model

Couple of points I haven't seen mentioned:
1) Elon is getting one time items out of the way. Elon wants a clean 2022. Demand has surprised Elon. Hertz deal included. VA and FSD bonuses inbound.

2) Full confirmation that seats are assembled to the 4680 pack before being mated to the car from below. This is important as you want to make the sub assemblies as complex as possible to shorten the main line. This is why Troy is wrong regarding 2023/4 - the alien dreadnought is only at V1.0 at the moment. Future versions (M2 & M1 - both without steering wheels from the start now I think) will use a fraction of the factory space.

 

[mongo]

Each pair of casting machines produces enough casts for 250,000 cars, even allowing for downtime. There are 8 casting machines planned for Berlin and there is room for at least 14, perhaps up to 20 in Austin. The clear implication is that Berlin phase 1 can reach 1M and Austin 1.75M (perhaps up to 2.5M).

There are at least two casting machines installed at Berlin and three installed at Austin (with another one being built). So casting machine capacity is 250,000 in each of Berlin and Austin (which will soon have its capacity raised to 500,000). New casting machines seem to be delivered every couple of months, so by the end of year capacity between the two plants will be 1.5M.

If Fremont and Shanghai between them can produce 1.5M this year, it does not seem too much of a stretch for Berlin and Austin to produce 0.5M.

Next year Tesla could have 1.5M from Shanghai, 1.5M from Austin, 0.5M from Fremont and 0.6M from Berlin.

For 2024 I expect over 4M between Shanghai and Austin, another 1.7M from Fremont and Berlin and another couple of factories ramping up.

Berlin is starting with only rear castings, so maybe double near term casting capacity.

And remember, no bare feet!

 

[Houston67]

That doesn't align with the explanation given by Elon. Not at all. He clearly said that due to shortages they would be able to make the same number of vehicles whether they had the cheaper car or not.

In what world does it make sense to trade more profitable, more expensive products 1:1 for cheaper products with less profit?

Ok pp

 

[Freder Reeve]

Let them play the short game, and you turn around and play the long game.
HODL

This is my style to stay compfy. Too poor to do any buyin though, and sold all other positions except tesla last year to get by.
over 500 shares at under $80 avg, simple holder. If I wasn't a moron who tried years back to follow these same trendy swing traders who showed back up, I'd have over 700 shares. ugh. So now i just hodl. This is a multi-generation investment, simple as that.

 

[Unpilot]

Dave with an informative video.

 

[Artful Dodger]

... 2nd Model Y line coming online in Shanghai during Q4.
... building contruction ground preparation underway on the land parcel to the NE of Phase 1

To better visualize these areas, here is the Exterior view of Giga Shanghai provided in the 2021 Q4 Investors Letter (Page 23), with my annotations in green:

Cheers!

 

[JustMe]

Yeah, except your predictions are ALSO too low for Shanghai. Recall the Environmental Impact Statement Tesla filed in Nov 2021, they said their expansion project at Giga Shanghai would be complete in April 2022 (see Wu Wa's videos of "BMP-2" in the SW quadrant).

This is almost certainly to support a 4th GA line, the 2nd Model 2 line in the Phase 1 GA hall. This 4th GA line will result in an annualized production run-rate of 1.2M at Giga Shanghai sometime during calendar 2022. So that becomes their minimum production for 2023/4, and that's w/o other expansions.

The plain reason why @Troy Q1 2021 production estimates were so dramatically wrong (no, twitter updates in the last 2 days of the quarter AREN'T predictions, Troy) was because he failed to understand that there even WAS a 2nd Model Y line coming online in Shanghai during Q4.

Now, he's repeating his mistake with the 2nd Model 3 line, while ignoring the obvious building contruction ground preparation underway on the land parcel to the NE of Phase 1. They're not growing watermelons there, no matter what unrelated quotes you want to pull from the conference call. I expect over 2.2M from Giga Shanghai alone in 2024 (about a million more than your estimate above)

Troy, what IS obvious is that Tesla will pace new facility contruction as they require. They are NOT constrainded by capital, and semi-conductor constraints will be over by then. 2nd GA lines can easily (and will be) added at both Austin and Berlin, and the 2024 time frame derisks any permit delay concerns. Adding modules of new production is far easier than 1st builds.

TL;dr Troy is mainly wrong, but I sure his Patreon's will continue to lap up his grist.

I agree with your assessment on Tesla’s growth trajectory.

Thumbs down for your tldr. That’s just obnoxious and uncalled for.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thumbs down for your tldr. That’s just obnoxious and uncalled for.

At some point in the future, I'm going to do a statistical analysis of how Troy's predictions evolve of ther course of a quarter. We have a plenty of data points now to see the trend.

Feel free to post in advance how you think his prediction errors actually trend over the quarter (rose-colored glasses optional). As I say, someday I will do a proper longitudinal study of the history of his predictions, but I'd like to YOU to go on record here 1st.

As for the "uncalled for", I hold that you are ignoring the plain truth. Do 'manners' make you feel better about that? There are literally $100s of Billions of Investor equity under attack by this false narrative, which is that Tesla can't continue to grow at 50% in 2023/24. This is wrong, and is a narrative which is funded by Tesla opponents (Patreon is just 1 way).

@Troy 's long history of low-balled initial (then slow-walked over time) P&D estimates is absolutely relevant to evaluating his claims for '23/'24. How do you ignore that?

 

[mrmage]

The reason why Tesla is not working on a $25k model 2 is because they already have a sub $30k model. It just needs easing of supply chain, 4680s, bigger castings, and the other continued margin improvements, all of which will happen in the next couple years anyway.

By tweaking the specs for less batteries, etc, Tesla can produce the SE in no time at all if they need to.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Don't say Tesla don't say Tesla don't say Tesla don't say Tesla don't say Tesla......

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487170424156925954

YES! I did it! No losing my job today! /s

The truly pathetic thing is that it is obvious the leader of the free world must have had a meeting with his staff where he ordered that no one in the government is allowed to mention Tesla. I would love to have a transcript from that meeting, and see if any on his staff tried to tell him what an idiotic idea that is.

This is very bullish actually - it shows they are very very afraid

 

[Knightshade]

I’ve been following a lot of the progress on FSD. While I agree that Musk has made a lot of crazy statements about it, it is finally starting to feel like it’s getting close to being ready to unleash on the general public. Right now they have 60,000 people on the beta which is a huge beta program.

Except the current beta is an L2 city streets system, with an ODER incapable of L3 or higher.

Tesla explicitly stated this in the CA DMV documents.

Once good enough to be widely rolled out it would likely allow Tesla to fully recognize all deferred FSD revenue for FSD sold after they changed the product description in March 2019.

But it wouldn't, at all, enable driverless robotaxis.

And those of us on the beta see that pretty clearly in daily use (that's apart from the concerns on things like current cam placement for handling obscured intersections, poor weather obscuring non-redundant side cams, etc).

Before mods get upset about another FSD tech discussion though probably best to move this over to one of the threads here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

@Troy 's long history of low-balled initial (then slow-walked over time) P&D estimates is absolutely relevant to evaluating his claims for '23/'24. How do you ignore that?

Because it's a false claim you've been called out for making before- with citations to the fact that Troy has been wrong to the high side initially more often than the low side as you keep claiming. A chart of this data going back years was provided to correct you and you keep being wrong about it anyway.

We get you dislike Troy. That's no reason to misrepresent the actual bias direction of his data.


Direct link to the last time data debunked your claim-

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

If all this becomes true, then we will see massive red days ahead but with Tesla being green(pretty much already happening this week). This also means Michael Burry predicted a correction but bet exactly on the wrong horses. IIRC the initial major reports on Burrys actions were from a May...

teslamotorsclub.com

Pic below-

Troys initial estimates were high not low for 5 of 8 quarters going back to mid 2019....and wrong in the opposite direction at END of quarter 5/8 times.

Exactly the opposite of your claims about the bias of his estimates.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Each pair of casting machines produces enough casts for 250,000 cars, even allowing for downtime. There are 8 casting machines planned for Berlin and there is room for at least 14, perhaps up to 20 in Austin. The clear implication is that Berlin phase 1 can reach 1M and Austin 1.75M (perhaps up to 2.5M).

There are at least two casting machines installed at Berlin and three installed at Austin (with another one being built). So casting machine capacity is 250,000 in each of Berlin and Austin (which will soon have its capacity raised to 500,000). New casting machines seem to be delivered every couple of months, so by the end of year capacity between the two plants will be 1.5M.

If Fremont and Shanghai between them can produce 1.5M this year, it does not seem too much of a stretch for Berlin and Austin to produce 0.5M.

Next year Tesla could have 1.5M from Shanghai, 1.5M from Austin, 0.5M from Fremont and 0.6M from Berlin.

For 2024 I expect over 4M between Shanghai and Austin, another 1.7M from Fremont and Berlin and another couple of factories ramping up.

So: "The (casting machine count) implies that Berlin phase 1 can reach 1M and Austin 1.75M (perhaps up to 2.5M)."

Let's just make sure that @Troy doesn't miss this information, and its implications, going forward.

Some quick maths, that's 1.0+1.75+1.2+0.6 = 4.5M minimum capacity with existing facilities fully ramped (perhaps up to 5.5M).

Can Tesla complete that within 2 to 3 years? Oh Yes, without doubt (you don't buy Gigapresses unless you plan to USE them!).

All WITHOUT new facilities. Thanks for the analysis. Very insightful.

#2024Production

 

[Speedr117]

The reason why Tesla is not working on a $25k model 2 is because they already have a sub $30k model. It just needs easing of supply chain, 4680s, bigger castings, and the other continued margin improvements, all of which will happen in the next couple years anyway.

By tweaking the specs for less batteries, etc, Tesla can produce the SE in no time at all if they need to.

Completely agree. Elon can't say "oh, the Model 3 will be the $25k car due to cost savings" since it would destroy demand right now. Instead, they'll just slowly lower prices as demand starts to ease (if that ever happens).

 

[MikeAtkinson]

The reason why Tesla is not working on a $25k model 2 is because they already have a sub $30k model. It just needs easing of supply chain, 4680s, bigger castings, and the other continued margin improvements, all of which will happen in the next couple years anyway.

By tweaking the specs for less batteries, etc, Tesla can produce the SE in no time at all if they need to.

With low total cost of ownership on Models 3 & Y, low fuel, repairs and especially depreciation, a $25k model would be cheaper to run but not by much, certainly not as much as the difference in sticker price would suggest.