Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

NHTSA and DOT and others just need a new WORD in the vocabulary to describe when a car needs to have it serviced with some urgency..

Currently, the only word they really have is RECALL. With the new world of OTA updates for ALL cars (its not just going to be full EV/BEV/PHEV that can/should get OTA updates) they need something like

MANDATORY UPDATE REQUIRED
URGENT UPDATE REQUIRED
OTA UPDATE REQUIRED

For users at least, maybe that means they just pop over to their cards service settings and hit the BRS. Trouble is, with OTHER OEM, I’m sure some of this stuff is going to be a for FEE service, unlike Tesla where very little is FEE for update or service.

OTA HOTFIX REQUIRED

 

[AZRI11]

I guess it's a start...

Biden Admin Now Ready to Consult with Tesla & Elon Musk—For Help Resolving Semiconductor Shortage

The Biden administration has expressed its readiness to consult with Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk on how to resolve semiconductor shortages. The government still cannot publicly acknowledge Tesla's leadership in the EV field but is happy to get its help in solving problems for the US auto industry.

www.tesmanian.com

Some background on Gina Raimondo. 2017 annual governors conference was in R.I. Gina was at that time R.I. Gov. Elon (who spoke at the conference) asked her personally for help in getting Tesla a license to sell new cars (state dealers law forbid it) she promised to try.

Tesla hired her campaign manager in helping to get a license to sell and service cars. That person (K. Joseph Shekarchi) is a lawyer and was a R.I. state rep. Same person is now R.I. house speaker. Tesla got the license, despite the fact that the law wasn't changed. This is how it works in R.I. I've had relatives in high offices in this state.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla EVs will play a huge role in your smart grid moving forward, it just won't be in the direction everyone seems to think The problem with solar isn't the drop during cloud cover, it's the extreme supply when it's sunny. EVs will soak up all that excess "surprise" supply throughout the day and help your grid maintain balance.

People will keep their EVs plugged in and a highly variable electricity rate will incentivize them to provide this service of soaking up supply. Home batteries like the Tesla Powerwall and grid level like the Megapack will handle the other direction.

It also makes sense to have a large battery at an EV fast charger.

The battery can soak up excess electricity during the day.

Very few EVs charge overnight, so the EV charging station can sell some electricity into the evening peak.

Batteries at EV fast chargers have many other benefits.
The Semi Megacharger probably requires a big battery .

We will have a lot more EV fast chargers with batteries in future.

 

[Nocturnal]

NHTSA and DOT and others just need a new WORD in the vocabulary to describe when a car needs to have it serviced with some urgency..

Currently, the only word they really have is RECALL. With the new world of OTA updates for ALL cars (its not just going to be full EV/BEV/PHEV that can/should get OTA updates) they need something like

MANDATORY UPDATE REQUIRED
URGENT UPDATE REQUIRED
OTA UPDATE REQUIRED

For users at least, maybe that means they just pop over to their cards service settings and hit the BRS. Trouble is, with OTHER OEM, I’m sure some of this stuff is going to be a for FEE service, unlike Tesla where very little is FEE for update or service.

I suggest a term we already have. "Critical software update". A recall to me implies physically recalling the product to be fixed.

It also makes sense to have a large battery at an EV fast charger.

The battery can soak up excess electricity during the day.

Very few EVs charge overnight, so the EV charging station can sell some electricity into the evening peak.

Batteries at EV fast chargers have many other benefits.
The Semi Megacharger probably requires a big battery .

We will have a lot more EV fast chargers with batteries in future.

I expect we will see specialized rate plans for chargers like that. Utility contract states that in return for X capacity of demand smoothing at peak times, Tesla will receive the lowest demand rates possible. Something along those lines.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Welp it held up well while it could but just like every time in the past month, it gives up the strength in the final couple of hours. Yes the macro's took another leg lower about 30 mins ago, but TSLA has been getting weaker and since turning negative, that weakness is accelerating. Oh well

 

[MC3OZ]

Once solar eats everything we are going to have to figure out what to do with our seasonal surplus energy. IMHO the best thing would be a “water grid” that desalinates and pumps water around the country, with an uphill bias towards the mountains in summer and a downhill bias towards winter.

We can also make Green Ammonia for fertilers and to power cargo ships.

Grow some hydroponic hemp and make Biochar, Graphene and Synthetic Diamonds.

The real list is longer than this, significant solar overbuild creates an excess 9 months of the year. It is an opportunity not a problem.

 

[Singuy]

Welp it held up well while it could but just like every time in the past month, it gives up the strength in the final couple of hours. Yes the macro's took another leg lower about 30 mins ago, but TSLA has been getting weaker and since turning negative, that weakness is accelerating. Oh well

Check the QQQ. Selling has accelerated. Tesla is holding up extremely well relatively.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Some background on Gina Raimondo. 2017 annual governors conference was in R.I. Gina was at that time R.I. Gov. Elon (who spoke at the conference) asked her personally for help in getting Tesla a license to sell new cars (state dealers law forbid it) she promised to try.

Tesla hired her campaign manager in helping to get a license to sell and service cars. That person (K. Joseph Shekarchi) is a lawyer and was a R.I. state rep. Same person is now R.I. house speaker. Tesla got the license, despite the fact that the law wasn't changed. This is how it works in R.I. I've had relatives in high offices in this state.

Invite Joe, Mary and Jim to Austin Giga Factory. Then have them ask specifically what help they need. Do this in a very polite twitter.

Edit - correct spelling

 

[EVMeister]

Time for power hour?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Check the QQQ. Selling has accelerated. Tesla is holding up extremely well relatively.

yes I am tracking the QQQ. I'm not saying Tesla isn't still holding up well. But at 1:30 est , notable weakness came into TSLA, at least in relative terms.

Sorry I'm not being a debbie downer, the stock is holding it's own for sure. Hard to know though how much of it is from genuine buying verses MM's just supporting it for options tomorrow.

 

[Rarity]

Was talking to a guy about the Texas grid outages, so I thought I'd dig around a bit to see what the opportunity looks like for Tesla Energy.

What could Texas have done last year to help avert similar issues this year? Obviously their solution is megapacks, so I went onto the Tesla site to order some. $1B gets you 1,000 megapacks(770MW/3080MWh) of battery storage installed in Texas by Tesla. That seems expensive, but you have to factor in that probably saves the Texas grid ~$50-100M in frequency and ancillary services every year. Then you add in the storage benefits to a Texas grid with massive cheap wind and solar.....these battery packs would pay themselves off in 5-8 years at most.

Texas should have done that in 2021, then doubled their order every year til the grid is eventually balanced, fully decentralized, and ultra-resilient. The DoE would happily finance it and ratepayers wouldn't end up paying a dime. In a messed up grid like Texas batteries don't "cost" anything, the savings more than makes up for the pricetag. And that's likely true all the way thru to 120% wind/solar/battery.

Taken seriously and executed as if this were an actual emergency, starting such a project in 2021 probably gets the whole Texas grid transitioned in 10-12 years. Obviously the oil & gas industry would never let this happen, but Texas ratepayers need to understand it's doable and they'd likely not pay one incremental dime for the entire transition. They can order the first year's 1,000 megapacks literally right off the website today.

TSLA investors need to understand the opportunity as well. Texas alone is probably $100B worth of orders and another $100-500M in basic maintenance services each year forever. Each % of this global market is astronomically valuable.

It would probably pay us to keep a close eye on any Tesla battery installations in Texas. It seems possible that the Angleton battery farm (100MW/400MWh) was a test case for keeping all of this on its own balance sheet.

 

[kabin]

Yes, Tesla too will be assimilated into the collective consciousness of the bear market. Resistance is futile. (Star Trek Borg episode)

AKA - once the market tanks just about every stock becomes correlated.

 

[Singuy]

yes I am tracking the QQQ. I'm not saying Tesla isn't still holding up well. But at 1:30 est , notable weakness came into TSLA, at least in relative terms.

Sorry I'm not being a debbie downer, the stock is holding it's own for sure. Hard to know though how much of it is from genuine buying verses MM's just supporting it for options tomorrow.

Well the plan should be to burn all the call option buyers, stack up all the put option buyers.
Have Tesla break 900, gap fill, then break 900, 940, and 1k when QQQ running up next 2 weeks, then 1240, and on to 1400 as we get all these approvals from Texas/Berlin/QQQ hitting ATH before the next oh my god the world is ending correction. And then we cycle through this again, burn through the call holders during the fomo run, stacking the put buyers, burn through them again..QQQ hitting ATH again...

So perhaps we are on a slight deviation from that plan which is fine with me.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Invite Joe, Mary and Jim to Austin Giga Factory. Then have them ask specifically what help they need. Do this in a very polite twitter.

Edit - correct spelling

Example text of the Tweet:
"Gina, I would love to have you and Joe down to our new Austin Giga Factory. You can also bring your friends Mary and Joe. Please let me know exactly what help you require, so I can help."

 

[Artful Dodger]

Recent Advancements to a Million Mile Battery, Work by Dr. Jeff Dahn, Dalhousie University

"A panel discusses the recent webinar presentation by Professor Jeff Dahn. Dr. Dahn"
Duration: 59:48 Posted: 16 hours ago

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

Example text of the Tweet:
"Gina, I would love to have you and Joe down to our new Austin Giga Factory. You can also bring your friends Mary and Joe. Please let me know exactly what help you require, so I can help. If you would like Mary to lead this effort to save them, that's okay with me"

FTFY

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is how it works in R.I.

Did not realize Rhode Island was that close to the equator. /s

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Yes, yes, and yes! And Texas is one of the few places that could easily pull this off decision-wise due to our largely independent grid. "Pays off in 5-8 years" means "your investment earns 12-20%" when translated to Texan .

Clean grid, resilient winter-proofed grid, and call it a 16% return on investment? THAT is a petition I would sign as a our governor's election race heats up.

The bummer is that our CURRENT state government is busy passing things like "municipalities can't ban natural gas, anywhere, ever". So decision-wise we are in a challenging place.

Why would any municipality ever consider banning natural gas? They aren't that dumb are they? NG is one of the less expensive heating sources, and a preferred fuel for cooking, let alone indoor fireplaces. Now, they may not HAVE NG, simply because it might not be cost effective to bring it to a specific community, but that's far from banning it.

 

[Robertj]

It also makes sense to have a large battery at an EV fast charger.

The battery can soak up excess electricity during the day.

Very few EVs charge overnight, so the EV charging station can sell some electricity into the evening peak.

Batteries at EV fast chargers have many other benefits.
The Semi Megacharger probably requires a big battery .

We will have a lot more EV fast chargers with batteries in future.

Having seen the latest Jeff Dahn interview this week , he talks about batteries now good for 4 million miles


The interview with Jeff Dahn was not allowed to be recorded but is discussed by EV Canada

And summarised on twitter

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489328547348901889

@elonmusk
As cycle life in Tesla’s vehicle battery packs increase and Tesla adds power electronics for power output as well as charging, do you foresee ever connecting Tesla vehicles to Virtual Power Plant / Autobidder / Tesla energy software?

In summary if your car is capable of 4 million miles , as a owner you will not be concerned about making it available for grid stabilisation
if you are recompensed in some way

 

[mblakele]

Why would any municipality ever consider banning natural gas? They aren't that dumb are they? NG is one of the less expensive heating sources, and a preferred fuel for cooking, let alone indoor fireplaces. Now, they may not HAVE NG, simply because it might not be cost effective to bring it to a specific community, but that's far frog banning it.

If you'd like to educate yourself on the subject, I'd suggest that you google "reach code natural gas". However in my opinion this topic is already off-topic for this thread, and will quickly become political — so please let's not discuss it here.