Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Yeah I highly doubt that shorts would be compensated through this scheme although the tweet could be construed as a way to clean out the shorts by spreading disinformation to boost the price, they would likely need to pursue separate litigation. Just throwing it out there.

Shorts are not necessarily "anti-investors" though considering that sophisticated investors are often hedged with holdings consisting of short and long positions to mitigate risks. But a setup like that would probably also not qualify for compensation here. The short firms who do a lot of research etc would probably argue they're trying to protect investors from fraud and whatever else.


This stuff is not simple at all and the details matter big time

When someone says, "Shorts are not investors", they don't mean someone holding a short position can't also be a shareholder investor, they mean the short position does not qualify them as being an investor or a shareholder.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm sorry if it offends you but I can't see genocide as a topic for a meme or a joke.

I do believe this can affect share product adoption and share price. Not a whole lot of dots to connect between an asshole and a whole lot of people (who would normally not care) turning against a product / company / public figure.

This incredibly poor tweet along with the background of lawsuits on hostile working environment for minorities are not helpful.

I think it is a good time to reflect on what is expected from people in powerful leadership positions.

I expect better than this recent string of tweets / news.

I must have missed that. Who brought up genocide?

 

[StealthP3D]

Not only that but, to qualify as a legitimate "harmed entity", the only thing the shareholders have to prove is that they owned the stock during a defined period of time, which has not yet been identified. I think the SEC made a big mistake, if I understand the agreement correctly, by taking possession of the $40M have set themselves up to deal with sorting out the issue of who owned what during the period of "harm". If the settlement had ordered Tesla to distribute pro rata shares (or cash) to current shareholders (like a dividend, for example), it would fall to the settlement agencies to determine who owns what to whom. I.e. the SEC may be delaying payment because they don't know how to deal with the naked short situation that they have allowed to arise.

Good points.

The SEC could also be delaying payment because they know a large percentage of those who receive a check in the mail will likely turn right around and immediately buy more TSLA shares with it, in effect, creating additional demand for TSLA shares and rewarding Tesla shareholders! Alternatively, some will use the checks for down payment on a new Tesla! LOL!

The SEC can't seem to win against Elon Musk when even a "win" looks like they lost. And now, with the DOJ investigating short-sellers, the optics would be very bad if the SEC were to send checks to the very short-sellers that were being raided by the FBI!

 

[new_sneakers]

Booking flights for Austin. Any word on how to get tickets or hotel location?

Stop! Date is actually April 7

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494909260303515649

 

[ZeApelido]

April 1st…..isn’t that date associated with clowning around/monkey business/horse play/teasin’/joshing/pranking

Always seems to be the Day Of Banning for me.

 

[Big Time]

April Fools! Two weeks April 7th…

 

[Ocelot]

I hear this criticism a lot but it misses the mark. No one is trying to silence your opinions, they are saying they disagree with your analysis, or they don't think Elon's controversial comments carry as much importance as those who endlessly bellyache about Elon's public comments do. This forum is for discussing our investments in Tesla and gaining additional insight. My problem is not with the fact that you disagree with some of Elon's tweets, it's that you act as if they are so important to the performance of your investment. This always happens when Tesla share price is depressed and some investors get emotional and want to blame Elon, but Elon's tweets are not the cause of the depressed price, and you can't do anything about them either.

I guarantee that Elon could Tweet like the most woke person that ever lived and the share price would still be in the crapper right now. Tesla would not build or sell one more car, not one analyst would increase their price estimates and Moody's or S&P would not raise their ratings to investment grade one day sooner. The endless complaining about Elon's tweets is simply not productive. Hence my comments that no one is forcing anyone to invest, no one is forcing anyone to buy Tesla products. Take them or leave them but you're not going to change Elon and you shouldn't waste a minute of your time (or this threads time) thinking you might. Get it? Sell your shares if you don't like it but don't clog up this thread with your endless bellyaching that you disagree with his comments and don't believe he should say them while simultaneously complaining that people are trying to silence YOU!

I trust you see the problem here.

Clog up threads? With my avg of a post every four days or so since I joined?
Your problems and analysis are pure projection.
Don’t care where share price is or was. I do care that I invest in decency.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Good points.

The SEC could also be delaying payment because they know a large percentage of those who receive a check in the mail will likely turn right around and immediately buy more TSLA shares with it, in effect, creating additional demand for TSLA shares and rewarding Tesla shareholders! Alternatively, some will use the checks for down payment on a new Tesla! LOL!

The SEC can't seem to win against Elon Musk when even a "win" looks like they lost. And now, with the DOJ investigating short-sellers, the optics would be very bad if the SEC were to send checks to the very short-sellers that were being raided by the FBI!

I wont link to the site (Plainsite - I haven’t been able to find it anywhere else), but here is part of the SEC response:

The staff has been working closely with the distribution agent and the Commission's
Division of Economic and Risk Analysis to develop a methodology to compensate
investors who were harmed by the misconduct alleged in the Commission's Complaints
against Tesla and Mr. Musk. Given the complexity of the distribution, it has taken time to
develop the plan of allocation. That process is nearing completion and, barring any
unforeseen circumstances, the Distributions staff expects to submit the proposed plan of
distribution for the Court's approval by the end of March 2022.

Case 1:18-cv-08865-AJN Document 63 Filed 02/18/22

Seems that Elon made his point.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Rescue of ship loaded with cars from Germany, reported in the Washington Post.

I am offering this as food for thought, not debate on FUD. A point mentioned in the article was that the origin was not necessarily the electric car batteries.

My concern is preventing fires on large cargo ships especially, especially with battery related chemicals.

If you think of the havoc caused by cargo ships carrying oil, now as the world shifts away from oil to batteries, a whole new definition of shipping hazardous cargo is emerging. Marine life will carry the bulk of the burden, not the would be owner of a new car.

I hope this puppy does not sink.

 

[MC3OZ]

Forward Observing

Rescue of ship loaded with cars from Germany, reported in the Washington Post.

I am offering this as food for thought, not debate on FUD. A point mentioned in the article was that the origin was not necessarily the electric car batteries.

My concern is preventing fires on large cargo ships especially, especially with battery related chemicals.

If you think of the havoc caused by cargo ships carrying oil, now as the world shifts away from oil to batteries, a whole new definition of shipping hazardous cargo is emerging. Marine life will carry the bulk of the burden, not the would be owner of a new car.

I hope this puppy does not sink.

The best approach is to engineer sufficient fire suppression into the cells/packs and/or move to safer chemistries preferably non--flammable.

Liqiud fuels need to be combustible, ideally battery cells don't.

Reducing shipping by making EVs and cells on the same continent helps.

While there is no quick fix, there is hope for a good solution. or at least a reasonable compromise.

I am still unaware of a reported fire with a Model 3/Y pack, but perhaps these have occurred.

Givin the volume of Model 3/Y on the road including those in serious accidents, my impression is that fires are not common.

And with LFP packs I expect even fewer fires.

 

[mongo]

Courtlistener is your friend:
Docket for United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk, 1:18-cv-08865 - CourtListener.com
SEC is technically correct, but slacking:
Court order from May 12th:

Within forty-five (45) days of the Court’s approval of the Plan, Rust will provide a status report, and thereafter, will provide additional reports and quarterly account statements within thirty (30) days after the end of every quarter.

Dec 21st, 2021, Judge asks: where's my reports?:

ALISON J. NATHAN, District Judge:
The Court on May 12, 2021, appointed Rust Consulting as distribution agent for the Fair Fund. No. 18-cv-8865, Dkt. No. 55. That order required that Rust file status reports and quarterly accounting statements within 30 days of the end of each quarter. Id. ¶ 6. The Court has received no such reports. Rust is hereby ordered to file a status report and the most recent quarterly accounting statement by January 7, 2022.

Rust says: Don't blame us:

On May 12, 2021, Rust Consulting was appointed to serve as Distribution Agent for the Fair Fund to assist in overseeing the administration and distribution of the Fair Fund in coordination with the Commission staff. On December 29, 2021, Rust Consulting was provided with the latest draft of the Plan of Distribution (the “Plan”) from the Commission.
Rust Consulting was asked by the Commission to review the updated draft within two (2) weeks and provide them with any feedback. Within forty-five (45) days of the Court’s approval of the Plan, Rust Consulting will provide a status report, and thereafter, provide additional reports within thirty (30) days after the end of every quarter. Once the Fair Fund has been transferred to an escrow account opened by Rust Consulting, an accounting report shall be included.

Further, I'm still on the 'SEC has harmed investors more than Elon' bandwagon:

April 2021:

The Fair Fund resides in an interest bearing account at the U.S. Treasury’s Bureau of Fiscal Services (“BFS”). The Fair Fund currently has a balance of $41,173,355.02.

$40 million paid in Oct 2018.
2.9% total return over 2.5 years...

The SEC now seeks to consolidate the Tesla Enforcement Actions for the post-judgment purposes of distributing the Distribution Funds to investors that were harmed by Musk’s false and misleading statements.

 

[jbcarioca]

Elon Musk is a freedom lover. He is a true patriot.

A truth speaker is always an overwhelming net positive. You may not like the truth. Nothing new. Carry on.

TSLA long and strong.

Slight correction perhaps: Patriot; "a person who loves, supports, and defends his or her country and its interests with devotion."

Dictionary.com | Meanings & Definitions of English Words

The world's leading online dictionary: English definitions, synonyms, word origins, example sentences, word games, and more. A trusted authority for 25+ years!

www.dictionary.com

Note that this definition is singular. Grammatically, at least, multiple active citizenships preclude being a "patriot". For that reason, were they sufficiently articulate, many patriots might understand better their antipathy for immigrants.

Tesla is an ideal case in point.

The company itself derives a majority of its' income from countries other than its' country of origin, although it has higher content from its' country of origin than any other vehicle for at least one major model. The CEO and Technoking, as it happens has three nationalities. He is an active and involved participant in investments and political discourse in at least five countries (recently, anyway, India, plus US, Canada, China and Germany). Based on all that activity he does not quite meet that definition.

Several other senior executives have multiple citizenships.

Despite the desire to ascribe a specific set of political views to Tesla, Mr. Musk or any others, that really does not meet the sobriety test, which requires sober thought. Mr. Musk is not so easily classified as 'true patriot' unless the intention is to classify Mr. Musk as loving, supporting and defending humanity rather than an individual country. That belies the definition of patriot, which implicitly places country above the non-compatriot humans. Oops, that does not work either since compatriots also have a single country definition.

In sum: Tesla and TMC are denizens of the planet Earth, not a particular place, despite corporate or individual alliances. Once we understand that we can understand many of what otherwise appear to be inconsistencies.

 

[AndreP]

Courtlistener is your friend:
Docket for United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk, 1:18-cv-08865 - CourtListener.com
SEC is technically correct, but slacking:
Court order from May 12th:

Dec 21st, 2021, Judge asks: where's my reports?:

Rust says: Don't blame us:

Further, I'm still on the 'SEC has harmed investors more than Elon' bandwagon:

April 2021:

$40 million paid in Oct 2018.
2.9% total return over 2.5 years...

Well keeping in mind this would be about the SEC harming the harmed investors more than they were harmed by the tweet(s), and I'm not sure how we rationalize that. This isn't about the SEC harming or not harming all Tesla investors.

So the alternative here is someone being entitled to nothing additional after buying the stock at ~$379.57 following Elon's $420 tweet and before it dropped down to ~$319.44 when the claim was abandoned. I think reasonable people here would be perturbed if they were caught in this circumstance, a $60 price difference at that time could extrapolate to a massive $$$ impact for someone who bought a lot of shares in that window.

This isn't about just holding the stock through that window, this is about buying shares at an inflated price after false claims were made and then before the stock corrected by like 16%. People caught in this situation would receive nothing for compensation if not for the SEC's action here, so I don't think there would be an argument for the SEC harming these people more than the tweet(s).


If we talk about all Tesla investors, people buying into the stock with a cost basis of $379 would presumably be beneficial to everyone else rather than those same people buying in at $319.

Considering that all trades have two sides, the harm inflicted on the harmed investors would come from people benefitting by selling to them at $379 rather than $319.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Slight correction perhaps: Patriot; "a person who loves, supports, and defends his or her country and its interests with devotion."

Dictionary.com | Meanings & Definitions of English Words

The world's leading online dictionary: English definitions, synonyms, word origins, example sentences, word games, and more. A trusted authority for 25+ years!

www.dictionary.com

Note that this definition is singular. Grammatically, at least, multiple active citizenships preclude being a "patriot". For that reason, were they sufficiently articulate, many patriots might understand better their antipathy for immigrants.

Tesla is an ideal case in point.

The company itself derives a majority of its' income from countries other than its' country of origin, although it has higher content from its' country of origin than any other vehicle for at least one major model. The CEO and Technoking, as it happens has three nationalities. He is an active and involved participant in investments and political discourse in at least five countries (recently, anyway, India, plus US, Canada, China and Germany). Based on all that activity he does not quite meet that definition.

Several other senior executives have multiple citizenships.

Despite the desire to ascribe a specific set of political views to Tesla, Mr. Musk or any others, that really does not meet the sobriety test, which requires sober thought. Mr. Musk is not so easily classified as 'true patriot' unless the intention is to classify Mr. Musk as loving, supporting and defending humanity rather than an individual country. That belies the definition of patriot, which implicitly places country above the non-compatriot humans. Oops, that does not work either since compatriots also have a single country definition.

In sum: Tesla and TMC are denizens of the planet Earth, not a particular place, despite corporate or individual alliances. Once we understand that we can understand many of hat otherwise appear to be inconsistencies.

In the US "patriot" has become conflated with something close to libertarianism.
Just FYI.

This is obviously the slipperiest of OT slopes, just wanted to clarify so we can move on to more Austin and 4680 rollout talk.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wont link to the site (Plainsite - I haven’t been able to find it anywhere else), but here is part of the SEC response:

The staff has been working closely with the distribution agent and the Commission's
Division of Economic and Risk Analysis to develop a methodology to compensate
investors who were harmed by the misconduct alleged in the Commission's Complaints
against Tesla and Mr. Musk. Given the complexity of the distribution, it has taken time to
develop the plan of allocation. That process is nearing completion and, barring any
unforeseen circumstances, the Distributions staff expects to submit the proposed plan of
distribution for the Court's approval by the end of March 2022.

Case 1:18-cv-08865-AJN Document 63 Filed 02/18/22

Seems that Elon made his point.

Complexity of the distribution? Taken time to ‘develop a plan of allocation? Seriously? He paid that money YEARS ago. Are the distribution staff officed in Brandenburg?

You’ve got a list of complainants; write some checks, direct deposit into trading or bank accounts, Paypal, Venmo.

 

[jerry33]

Complexity of the distribution? Taken time to ‘develop a plan of allocation? Seriously? He paid that money YEARS ago. Are the distribution staff officed in Brandenburg?

You’ve got a list of complainants; write some checks, direct deposit into trading or bank accounts, Paypal, Venmo.

The only people who were harmed were those who stupidly sold their shares. Anyone who held was rewarded. The whole thing is just plain silly because buy high sell low is not the way to profit.

 

[mongo]

Well keeping in mind this would be about the SEC harming the harmed investors more than they were harmed by the tweet(s), and I'm not sure how we rationalize that. This isn't about the SEC harming or not harming all Tesla investors.

So the alternative here is someone being entitled to nothing additional after buying the stock at ~$379.57 following Elon's $420 tweet and before it dropped down to ~$319.44 when the claim was abandoned. I think reasonable people here would be perturbed if they were caught in this circumstance, a $60 price difference at that time could extrapolate to a massive $$$ impact for someone who bought a lot of shares in that window.

This isn't about just holding the stock through that window, this is about buying shares at an inflated price after false claims were made and then before the stock corrected by like 16%. People caught in this situation would receive nothing for compensation if not for the SEC's action here, so I don't think there would be an argument for the SEC harming these people more than the tweet(s).

Rant on:
Had the SEC paid out immediately to 'harmed investors' they could have bought more TSLA.
TSLA which has grown from $50-$60 to $850 currently, a 1,400% gain.

Even buying at $84 ($420 split adjusted) is 10x gain. Versus the 2.5% the SEC has earned doing near nothing.

So, I would claim anyone who bought on the $420 buyout Tweet and held was anti-harmed by Elon.
However, anyone who bought may have been harmed by the huge drops created by the SEC lawsuits regarding the Tweet. Especially if margin called...

And remember, the stock was rising on the Saudi investment news *before* Elon Tweeted. If anything, $420 could have capped the rise. Indeed, part of use buying more was to diversify account types to increase the odds of being able to hold it post-transition.

Further, SEC's bias is showing. The case settled with no finding nor admission of wrongdoing (Musk can not deny the allegations as a condition of not admitting to the allegations); however, SEC gets to keep pumping their narrative unbridled:
From April:

On September 29, 2018, the Commission filed a related civil action against Defendant Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) alleging violations of the federal securities laws also in connection with Musk’s false and misleading statements.

(Rant mode staying on)

Complexity of the distribution? Taken time to ‘develop a plan of allocation? Seriously? He paid that money YEARS ago. Are the distribution staff officed in Brandenburg?

You’ve got a list of complainants; write some checks, direct deposit into trading or bank accounts, Paypal, Venmo.

Oh don't worry, they may have a plan by the end of March...

The staff has been working closely with the distribution agent and the Commission’s Division of Economic and Risk Analysis to develop a methodology to compensate investors who were harmed by the misconduct alleged in the Commission’s Complaints against Tesla and Mr. Musk. Given the complexity of the distribution, it has taken time to develop the plan of allocation. That process is nearing completion and, barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Distributions staff expects to submit the proposed plan of distribution for the Court’s approval by the end of March 2022.

The only people who were harmed were those who stupidly sold their shares. Anyone who held was rewarded. The whole thing is just plain silly because buy high sell low is not the way to profit.

Well, option traders were in a pickle, but are those "investors"?

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

"Celebrating our one millionth 4680 cell in January"

1 millionth cell was made in Jan or they made 1 million cells in Jan? Seems like that announcement could have been more specific to reduce ambiguity:

* 1 million cells cumulative (%start date% to %end date%)
* 1 million cells made (within a 30 day period in Jan 2022)

or some such

I was curious of this too but was too afraid to ask I would have to guess that it means in a 30 day period just because they showed what looked like hundreds of batteries a year ago in the Battery Video of Jan 2021. But even if it wasn't I would think that the batteries made in Jan 2022 would be more than Jan-Dec 2021 as the yield rate increased over time so that the next million wont take nearly as long.

 

[StealthP3D]

The only people who were harmed were those who stupidly sold their shares. Anyone who held was rewarded. The whole thing is just plain silly because buy high sell low is not the way to profit.

Not only that, but the announcement that the SEC was accusing Musk of misleading investors immediately caused the price to fall more than anything Musk said. I am firmly in the camp that the SEC has harmed Tesla investors while Musk is the primary reason for most of our gains!

The whole idea that the SEC is "protecting" us from Musk is ludicrous on the face of it.

 

[jbcarioca]

Bribery and corruption in the automotive industry - the unholy alliance between auto companies and auto reviewers/journalists

This is really exaggerated, so much so that it diminishes the basic premise. That advertising-driven auto publications are biased towards their revenue sources is been a factual character of almost all news sources, not just auto. That those advertisers and others make convenient ways to offer non-exactly-bribe inducements is equally established fact. That applies to almost every business category. 'almost' only be cause there conceivably may be an exception. In this piece he barely alludes to advertising revenue itself, or explicitly sponsored stories.

However, it is now uncommon for a press vehicle to be much better than the consumer version. They are now just as likely to have been beat up and abused by previous press users. Still, there are the prototypes and early production versions. As often as not the early production versions are less well finished than are the alter production versions. That 'specially built' is an advantage is a major fallacy. In the industrialized world early production and specially built are lesser, not greater vehicles.

It is very sad to take a perfectly valid issue and so exaggerate it as to make it largely untrue. Sad and stupid. The reality itself tells the story perfectly.

The J D Power, Edmunds et al story is slightly different but equally fraught, as is the used car guide (US mostly NADA). Automotive News is in the same box, with all these almost exclusively depending on auto dealers for their revenues.

Then there are the Munro et al stories. Sandy Munro makes his process explicit and ensures his customers know. It is only by full disclosure of their potential or actual conflicts that they can do work with competitors without alienation. Some others, such as Consumers Union in the US do attest to independence, but still end out rewarding the status quo simply because their customer base is technologically and logically driven by very conservative (NOT political) economic views.

I good webcast would have describes these issues in equal time or even less, replete with short videos and pertinent quotations. It's all there, easy to get. Check Car and Driver, Autocar, Quattro Rodas and myriad others. Their own articles tell this story. Nobody hides it, they describe their most excellent road trips, wining and dining. Their long term tests invariably describe sending their vehicles back to their sources.