Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I don't see any outlets carrying news about the price increases yet, where as many were quick to connect Nickel futures to battery prices, even as Tesla uses longer term contracts and are not likely impacted near term.
Raising prices is seen as very bullish by the algos. Nobody's gonna pay to have an article posted in the media with something positive.
 
And apparently Elon is a Dad again, this time to a baby girl!

I read a snippet of it from another site as well and decided to go to the actual article. It's long, but well worth the insight.

 
Well, no, we can't. That's because we don't know the extent to which Market Makers have hedged their positions at any strike price, or at what level of loss they are willing to step in. It's further made difficult because we don't have realtime data for Open Interest (always at least 1 day stale), and we NEVER get final Open Interest data for the actual day of contract expiry (can't model w/o data).

Then, even if you could, MMs are only 1 of at least 6 different groups playing tug-of-war with the SP.

TL;dr. No we can't settle this debate, and the rules are written by the owners of this casino.

HODL.
Just for a tiny clarification: "...the rules are written by the owners of this casino" is not exactly correct. Casinos are regulated in nearly every jurisdiction, nearly all have minimum payout rules for applicable games and maximum takes for others. The securities rules, in the US, are written by the participants and are deeply obscured and undisclosed, mostly. Thus the securities game is far riskier than casino poker, say, o even slot machines. In the securities game the actual fees are NEVER disclosed to retail purchasers. In casinos they always are disclosed.

FWIW, by bizarre coincidence one of my colleagues worked with me on the operating system integration of a huge Wall Street firm forced takeover in the 2008 affair. He subsequently led an operating system update for a major US Casino operator. From my discussions with him it was obvious that casino systems were clear, fairly simple, fully disclosed and reported to regulators through exacting audits by multiple parties. By contrast the major securities firms have no reporting required in multiple areas, and long time delays in others. There are always substantial areas undisclosed which include multiple fees and operating payments.
It is only through my associate's dual experiences that the scope of all this became clear. Clear because the securities version is deeply opaque. Further, the term 'owners' itself is a bit too specific, since even that has some significant ambiguities. The wiki explains DTCC without explaining anything, NOT an accident:
Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation - Wikipedia. Among the cleverest non-informational information is found here:
To be clear: my personal experience dated from the 1973 establishment of DTC, which obviated the courier industry. Multilateral meeting was the largest challenge then so the NSSC in 1976. It was those two and their implementation that ended out facilitating much of the nefarious activity because almost every State regulation was eliminated when these two central organizations were created. They now gradually has grown to encompass most global securities trading. In turn two products: Global Custody and Global Master Trust acted to further insulate securities transactions from much significant regulatory oversight. I worked very naively on both of those, at one time visiting more than 100 countries within a four month period to help establish comprehensive coverage.

Nearly everyone I ever encountered was very well informed operationally and totally ignorant of the implications. That applied to me. Bluntly, I finally connected the dots in 2008, when I worked on a number of the major deals. I felt angered and ashamed because it was so entirely obvious that very, very few people had any idea what the were doing. As I have said repeatedly that included Nobel Prize winners.

People who play in the securities market on buy and hold unless a major defect happens to the issuer of the securities usually do well.
Mutual funds, derivatives regardless of type, or dealing with non-member brokers nearly always lose, often after a short period of huge gains. Common stocks that have high volatility are guaranteed to harm anyone who does not buy and hold. The system has been carefully designed to strip active traders from their wealth as soon as possible. Mutual funds are designed to do that with a slightly higher degree of finesse.

Diversification is a good thing, but I only works when the investor knows exactly what each portfolio item represents. Warren Buffet, vilified by some because he avoided technology because he did not understand it, has had a wise and durable policy never to buy something he did not understand. That is always wise.

Buying TSLA for many, perhaps most, of us I very prudent because we all know the company, its' warts and risks. In my own portfolio I do have multiple investments. Every one I watch closely. One major one I sold last year when top management changed. If material negative events happen to TSLA I would sell also. As always the major problem is to know what is material and what is a transitory setback. Sound investment si hard work. Ben Graham was really correct. The fact is that the knowledge one needs to do value investing today is different than it was for him. Today information access makes value investing much harder work because it is so much easier to find both value and anti-value and so much more difficult to understand which is which.

In our parochial terms:
Tesla vs Fisker, Workhorse or Rivian. CATL vs LG, Panasonic, Northvolt or SK. How about BYD? There are so many others, but most of our time and effort is spent on legacy ICE, nearly all of which will gradually or quickly diminish in relevance. So , short the sure losers? No, not a chance for me, anyway. Those legacy ones have deep and lucrative ties to the same people who 'own' the securities industry. Thus, they'll worker continuing government bailouts with soft landings because that si what they always, always do. They aren't about to lose their profits. They will let the stopped shells fail, or those who don't play by their 'rules'.
For reference look at Lehman Brothers; Bear, Stearns; AIG, LTCM. Those were all highly profitable, highly visible and too arrogant to the wrong people so that were annihilated. That pattern repeats with every crisis. They'll not be too upset to see Stellantis go, although Italy and France may win the day for them. Ford and GM will have the Bank of America, Wachovia, or Merrill Lynch solution in one version or another.

As investors we really need to avoid becoming collateral damage. Never, ever engage in leveraged transactions in a rising interest rate environment. NEVER.

OK, my disclosure: That's what I do. It is not advice because I have no license to offer advice. To be explicit: I now have exactly zero debt. Thus, I resemble pretty much the Tesla posture, maintain positive cash flow, as positive as possible. Take no new debt that is not easily paid by current assets. Each or my personal equity investments has a similar policy.
 
Well keep in mind, the LYRIQ is coming this month and expected to be huge (HUYGQ in Cadillac speak) so that’ll put a big hit in Model Y sales.

So maybe only 79-89%.
After reviewing the Lyriq page, I've come to realize how badly they (and others I can only assume) are misleading people with the charging situation. Ya we all know, but this page on GMs site is live trickery. You scroll from the specs (2 wheel drive, 340 HP, on 300 kWh battery) to your charging options (home or fast at 76 mi in 10 min), then they show a map of your area with about 25 charging locations. It's the presentation of this info that's so deceiving. Plus, it's an SUV which should be the long range road-trip vehicle. And Cadi customers are special, expecting only the best. Makes me want to post on Nextdoor, give a heads up before my neighbor gets one.

Owners will learn that it's not too bad with home charging, but their first road trip could be a challenge as with all the others out there. It's like the big lie, word will spread fast among owners cuz the media sure ain't stepping in. These customers have likely never heard of a SuperCharger.

The sales directed me to a Dealership, to input my info. It says "Taking Orders Soon" so no pre-orders? And all those ugly front grills I'm seeing today... clear signs of legacy trying to create a bridge product. What a mess.

 
High gas prices having an impact on Tesla, in a good way. I'm not sure how they are getting this data (anonymous sources), but it definitely seems plausible to me. Perhaps this is related to the recent Tesla price increases. Demand skyrocketing, so increase the price a bit.

 
After reviewing the Lyriq page, I've come to realize how badly they (and others I can only assume) are misleading people with the charging situation. Ya we all know, but this page on GMs site is live trickery. You scroll from the specs (2 wheel drive, 340 HP, on 300 kWh battery) to your charging options (home or fast at 76 mi in 10 min), then they show a map of your area with about 25 charging locations. It's the presentation of this info that's so deceiving. Plus, it's an SUV which should be the long range road-trip vehicle. And Cadi customers are special, expecting only the best. Makes me want to post on Nextdoor, give a heads up before my neighbor gets one.

Owners will learn that it's not too bad with home charging, but their first road trip could be a challenge as with all the others out there. It's like the big lie, word will spread fast among owners cuz the media sure ain't stepping in. These customers have likely never heard of a SuperCharger.

The sales directed me to a Dealership, to input my info. It says "Taking Orders Soon" so no pre-orders? And all those ugly front grills I'm seeing today... clear signs of legacy trying to create a bridge product. What a mess.

100AMP circuit at home to get the 52 miles in a hour.
 
Getting a bit sick of those. 🤷‍♂️

I have two accounts where I simply HODL the majority of my TSLA shares, but I also have a little brokerage account where I try my hand at day & swing trading as a personal challenge to see how high I can grow the account. These weekly swings in TSLA have been great fun, I buy a few dozen shares when it gets down below $815 and I sell them whenever it gets up to $850. It's been profitable! :cool:
 
If shorts (non-investors) are compensated for their losses, it will be a dangerous precedent. It will mean that the SEC has been successful in their attempt to equate the term "market participant" to "investor". I am not aware of any previous monetary settlements being granted to short sellers.
This is what surprised me. The SEC plan for distributing the funds $40m settlement includes payouts for both investors who realized a loss, and shorts who realized a loss during that time period. I can’t imagine Tesla would let that slide past without a complaint.
 
After reviewing the Lyriq page, I've come to realize how badly they (and others I can only assume) are misleading people with the charging situation. Ya we all know, but this page on GMs site is live trickery. You scroll from the specs (2 wheel drive, 340 HP, on 300 kWh battery) to your charging options (home or fast at 76 mi in 10 min),
Time to add 100 miles, 200 Miles, and 300 Miles from 10% remaining charge should be required added on the sticker for every EV sold. Another useful metric, average charge rate in MPH from 0-80% state of charge.

This metric of “How much you can charge in 10 minutes” is worthless because it doesn’t include any idea of the effect of tapering or battery size.

Of course… if they are mucking with what to put on stickers I’d really like to see more useful range numbers. Highway range at 65MPH and 75MPH would be much more useful than the current numbers.
 
The sales directed me to a Dealership, to input my info. It says "Taking Orders Soon" so no pre-orders? And all those ugly front grills I'm seeing today... clear signs of legacy trying to create a bridge product. What a mess.

They did do pre-orders for the debut edition, and sold out all available ones in like 20 minutes.

Granted- it's GM, so that was likely 10 total cars or something.


This claims a dealer told them it was 1500 total cars, though nobody else appears to have confirmed that-
 
Why? Isn't this just prioritizing higher margin vehicles?
No need to move to a $25k model.
No need to sell any standard range trims.
Ability to prioritize FSD buyers.

Tesla has already turned the entire global automotive industry irreversibly to EV, now Elon is eating margin to ramp pressure.

Top of the line is where everyone makes their margin. Tesla now owns that in passenger vehicles. Soon the same will be true for pickups.

Trust the Process!