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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Just posted this the the latest WaPo hit piece. Someone's got to, even though it's like pissing into the wind.

"One of the many problems with this article, is that all of the auto mfg's selling some form of cruise control or semi-automated driving- (34 mfg's. at the moment--see GM's "Cruze", AcuraWatch, Ford’s Safe and Smart Package, Honda Sensing, and Mazda’s i-Activsense, VW, etc, etc. Many users report phantom braking. No mention of that in this article, one of Wa Po's regular, almost weekly anti Tesla screeds. Why doesn't the author report on all of the other brands experiencing this issue? Googling reveals the problem is much wider, but most of what you'll find references Tesla.

To quote the Verge: "Tesla has recently made the move to release quarterly reports on the safety of its Autopilot system. In its first report, Tesla said that it registered “one accident per 3.34 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. Up to one per 2.91 million miles during the last quarter." Are the other mfg's posting such info every quarter? If not, why not, and why doesn't the reporter mention this? Is any other mfg. even close to that number?

Is it possible that anyone with ICE cars, oil, gas, coal, or a competing rocket company to sell would like Tesla to fail? Oh, and that list certainly now includes Putin if it didn't before. Starlink to Ukraine anyone? Musk's ambition to decarbonize the world's energy systems and replace fossil fuels puts a huge target on his back. No one has done more to jump start the world's transition to electric, and help solve the climate crisis--ever. Arrogant--yes. Rude, stupid tweeter? Yup. I can live with that."
 
This afternoon I was stopped at traffic lights in the university area of Liverpool with my window down. 2 women about 25 were walking past and looking at the car. One of them shouted over "I love your car". Now, I've had some nice cars over the years and that's never happened.

Price increases? Bring it on, I'll pay whatever it takes! 😏. The power of Tesla
I drove to Dorset and back this weekend and didn't get the same result.
 
Unfortunately one does not get arrested for breaking laws of this nature. One gets fined.

I'm more in favor of Tesla actively campaigning or lobbying to change these silly laws instead of purposefully ignoring them and hurting their bottom line.
Is the fine less than the cost of shipping the vehicle out of state? What if Tesla passed this expense on to their TX buyers, would that motivate the people to voice their dissatisfaction with their elected officials? There has to be a chess move by Tesla with Giga Austin here...
 
An algorithm to prevent feedback loop echo chambers would be nice.
No Algorithm would be super nice. Or perhaps a second feed. The algorithms tend to stuff people into deeper and deeper rabbit holes which make it easier to target people with propaganda and BS.

If I follow someone I want to see all their posts, not just the Algorithm thinks are interesting enough.
 
So Karpathy is on a sabatical.
Bears: he's leaving the company!
Bulls: Project Vacation completed

Operation_vacation.png
 
The company my friend works for wanted to go green, however picked Volvo EV as their company car. After 4 years and 140ks in his Model 3, his review of his Volvo experience is this.

"Volvo pro pilot assist can't even handle a slight turn on the highway. LTE/GPS drop for no reason. I have 6 different apps to make sure I can find a charger, then EA and EVgo fast chargers can't handshake with the car so I have to do musical charging spots to find one that works. The EA in Lakeland had 4/8 chargers offline, however the app said 8/8 are available. It's so bad!!!" He is dreading his long distance Miami trip as the possibility of getting stranded is high.

That competition will overtake Tesla any day now.
 
Not to derail this thread, but how do you see this view on ToS? What is this view called so I can Google it and find youtube videos on this?
It’s a chart window from the charts tab. I entered the option. I think the volume is there as standard. If not, you add in the volume. I also remove the theoretical option price. PM me if you have any issues. :)
 
Trying to figure out how this works. Let assume I get 1M shares for $1. They go up to $100/share and I now have $100M and have to pay taxes. So I sell 20% of my shares and pay taxes. Now I have 800k shares worth $100 with no gain. Next year they go up to $1100. I now have 800k shares with $1000 gain and have to pay 20% tax on this gain. So I sell 160k shares and to pay the taxes with some spare change. I now have 640k shares worth $1100 with no gain.

Compare this to my brother who bought 1M shares worth $1 of another company. In one year they went up to $1100/share. So he has made a $1099 gain and have to pay 20% tax on this. So he sells 20% of his shares, pays taxes and have some spare change. He now has 800k shares worth $1100 with no gain.

Is this example correct?
That would be my interpretation with a couple of caveats.

1. I’m assuming it would be a marginal tax. The tax doesn’t begin until you hit $100M. So you would either have to have $100M outside of that company, or start your example at $100 / share, rather than $1.00 / share. It makes no sense that when your net worth increases only $1M from $99M to $100M, all of a sudden, you owe $20M in tax.

2. In your example when it jumps to $1100 / share, you would owe only on the $1k in gains, but would be selling $1100 shares, so you would ONLY have to sell $160M tax / $1100 per share = 145,454 shares.

Still your example really highlights how taxes will really eat away at your net worth over time, and the faster your net worth grows, the less this constant erosion will occur.
 
While BD isn’t in the business of general purpose robots, I suspect many of the things BDs robots get put to use for could be replaced by a general purpose robot. The Spot robot in particular is likely easily replaced by Optimus in a lot of situations. Walk a route at 3mph, report the state of things along that route, this is something Optimus will be able to do.

It will be very much like the way smartphones replaced many single purpose devices. Not exactly a direct competition, but able to be programmed to fit the purpose.

For some purposes, certainly.

For others it won't be unless Tesla plans to offer different sensor and tool packages as BD does.... and complex optioning is something Tesla usually tries to avoid in order to reduce manufacturing cost and complexity.

Remember Tesla is the company that decided to just use the premium seats in the base 3 because it was cheaper/easier to ramp production if they didn't have 2 different seat options even if one seat physically cost less to make.

(not to mention a wide array of sensor types would make getting a general AI to handle and integrate them all properly much harder- again we know this from Tesla themselves who increasingly moved away from such sensor fusion approaches)


So I expect a lot of the niche roles BD fills (which honestly is most of BDs business to my knowledge, where say a FLIR sensor is hugely beneficial for safety inspection reasons, will remain with BD.... and broader roles where you don't need anything but "can move slowly and reliably and carry moderate weights and see in the visible spectrum"-- which is a lot more jobs overall-- would go to a general purpose cheap bot like Optimus.


Hence why I don't really see them as being in the same market overall, any more than say caterpillar vehicles are in the same overall market as Tesla vehicles.



BTW since the weekend is ending soonish, this appears to be the most relevant thread for further bot discussion given the premature speculative nature of it at this point compared to substantive investor topics-
 
The company my friend works for wanted to go green, however picked Volvo EV as their company car. After 4 years and 140ks in his Model 3, his review of his Volvo experience is this.

"Volvo pro pilot assist can't even handle a slight turn on the highway. LTE/GPS drop for no reason. I have 6 different apps to make sure I can find a charger, then EA and EVgo fast chargers can't handshake with the car so I have to do musical charging spots to find one that works. The EA in Lakeland had 4/8 chargers offline, however the app said 8/8 are available. It's so bad!!!" He is dreading his long distance Miami trip as the possibility of getting stranded is high.

That competition will overtake Tesla any day now.
I bought a Chevy Bolt right when they came out in 2017. Model 3 wasn't available yet and I really wanted to go electric. I did many, many long road trips in the Bolt. I had a lot of weird experiences with chargers but with a little planning and perseverance, I always got where I wanted to go. I'm not sure things are quite as bad as what Singuy reports. I never got stranded. And figuring out how to get there was half the fun.

That being said, I would never send my daughter on a road trip in any EV but a Tesla.