Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

$1150c expiring tomorrow are now $.90

Just FYI.

And the $1550c that spikes to 11k open interest for 4/8 are now $.32 with OI down to 6200 as of this morning. (having spiked from $1 to $2.25 on the split announcement)

 

[Big Time]

I obviously want them to do a smooth transition of European deliveries only from Giga Berlin.... If someone knows a rough estimate what % of quarterly deliveries from Shanghai wind up in Asia, and also what % of quarterly deliveries from Fremont wind up in the USA.
By looking at troys forward looking estimates for Q1 he expects Shanghai to export 40% to Europe and rest of world.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502319730996256770

That is another ramp that will be fascinating to watch the ramp in Berlin/Austin effecting the demand wait times in China/America. As an America who hopes to own a Tesla some day, I'm hoping that the Austin factory prioritizes shrinking the demand times in the US. Not trying to be impatient or bossy but im guessing they will export nearly 100% of Texas made vehicles in America until the backlog is helped considerably. Tesla might do that on a logistics, cogs, and perhaps another few metrics.

Who knows. Still rocking my Volvo's

 

[Big Time]

Just read this on another message board, have yet to verify
Tesla Giga Berlin Produces 1 Model Y Every 150 Seconds! This translates into 1000 vehicles a week at Giga Berlin.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Just read this on another message board, have yet to verify
Tesla Giga Berlin Produces 1 Model Y Every 150 Seconds! This translates into 1000 vehicles a week at Giga Berlin.

wow, if they could keep that going 24/7, it is over 4K a week. That is pretty impressive. Even one or two thousand a week in the near future is impressive.

 

[petit_bateau]

$100 billion 2023 net income is now what my model is projecting. WTF. Please help me if I've lost my mind.

I project $14 bn net with 2,500,000 vehicles using rather more cautious inputs than you. I'd be delighted if you were correct mind you.

 

[Big Time]

Perhaps Joe's oil reserve speech can boost the markets..... Looks like its about to begin.

also found supposed link to 150 secs

 

[SOULPEDL]

Also doing my part to help those Q1 numbers. Picked up this past weekend after holding my reservation for nearly 2 years! LR with FSD.

My SO has a first run 2020 Model Y and while I still love that car, the build quality on my 2022 is superb. Definitely feels more solid and premium.

View attachment 788340

We might not be hearing about a mad end of quarter rush from Tesla, but just today 3-4 folks showed us some nice high-end deliveries (congrats to all). If I were a bettin' man, I'd say that FSD is partly why you're in. Oh... the Q1 Margins!

OK, so why pump it in Q1? Oh, let's hit them all at once with the same quarter that started up 2 new Factories. Not enough pump, let's raise prices, then announce future split. So everything is about pulling in $$$ to Q1 it appears. And if I were to extrapolate the trend, I'd say we haven't heard it all yet as we could be in the midst of a fireworks display. I'm definitely holding through the weekend, holding for a golden egg in that report.

But how do they follow that act in Q2 and keep the ball rolling? Likely Factories ramping can make it up in volume along with Energy growth. But I think FSD will also play a role very soon because the Factories will be expensive at first. Exciting to say the least!

 

[Artful Dodger]

My neighbor picked up his X plaid yesterday too. Originally he didn’t think he was getting it until September timeframe, maybe they prioritize the plaid version.

It's well-known that Tesla has prioritized delivery of Plaid variants. The more interesting question is did this new Model X included FSD?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just read this on another message board, have yet to verify
Tesla Giga Berlin Produces 1 Model Y Every 150 Seconds! This translates into 1000 vehicles a week at Giga Berlin.

Giga Berlin Model Y production will be max 5k per week (limited by LG bty pack imports) until local 4680 pack production begins (likely Q3/4 2022).

 

[samppa]

Our local showroom couple days ago. One car left.

 

[Ogre]

We might not be hearing about a mad end of quarter rush from Tesla, but just today 3-4 folks showed us some nice high-end deliveries (congrats to all). If I were a bettin' man, I'd say that FSD is partly why you're in. Oh... the Q1 Margins!

OK, so why pump it in Q1? Oh, let's hit them all at once with the same quarter that started up 2 new Factories. Not enough pump, let's raise prices, then announce future split. So everything is about pulling in $$$ to Q1 it appears. And if I were to extrapolate the trend, I'd say we haven't heard it all yet as we could be in the midst of a fireworks display. I'm definitely holding through the weekend, holding for a golden egg in that report.

But how do they follow that act in Q2 and keep the ball rolling? Likely Factories ramping can make it up in volume along with Energy growth. But I think FSD will also play a role very soon because the Factories will be expensive at first. Exciting to say the least!

Q1 is I think the first quarter where the bulk of the price increases have been active all quarter. Last quarter saw a lot of deliveries where there was only a 1000-3000 increase. Q1 should see mostly deliveries with $6000+ increases applied so margins should be quite healthy indeed even without the FSD incentive dangling out there.

 

[Ogre]

Our local showroom couple days ago. One car left.
View attachment 788395

We went by the Tesla dealership at the Tigart Mall near Portland and the showroom and demo fleet were empty of vehicles as well.

Cycling out demo is needed regardless so there is pretty much no cost associated with flushing them at the end of the quarter.

 

[Thumper]

Took delivery of LR non-plaid Model S two days ago. Still on old price from October.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Dodges Nickel Crisis With Secret Deal | Bloomberg Technology (17 hrs ago)

Lol, love that Bloomberg headline. Here's some more they could use:

• Telsa Fords Valley of Death
• Telsa out-Smarts SEC
• Telsa Triumphs Over Chip Shortage
• Telsa Ruf on Competition
• Tesla... Underpants... Profit!

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[jerry33]

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL.

"not a professional" earns five extra points.

 

[Gigapress]

Auto gross margin was 30.6% in Q4 (up from 30.5% in Q3)-- how are you getting to 51% gross margin next year?

A whole lot of excellent things are all coming together in the next year or so, that's how. I couldn't believe it at first.

• Price increase lag time is around 6-9 months because of the backlog. Q4 21's 30.6% gross margin came from prices set by Tesla around Q2 21. Over that time period, prices across the vehicle lineup went up about 10% and then even more in Q1 2022. We have about 15% total price increases that have not yet hit the financials!! Today in the US for example, $63k is the bare minimum price for a Model Y LR, vs $50k in Jan 2021. I expect prices will likely continue to increase because demand keeps blowing up, and thus I modelled for a $3k bump, which would represent a drastic slowdown of the demand trend.

• Mix is improving. Model Y, S and X with higher trims are increasing their share of production. Initial Cybertruck sales will probably be expensive trims only.

• Tesla is now forcing FSD take rates higher by prioritizing those orders, and FSD will increase in price, and FSD may have 100% revenue recognition by 2023 if navigate on city streets is let out of beta

• Across 2021, avg vehicle COGS fell by $1k

• Berlin, Austin, and Shanghai expansion will bring both improved efficiency and also reduced costs for logistics and 10% EU import tariffs

• Many Model Ys will have Battery Day tech saving even more cost while making the product better

• Model Y already today sells for crazy high $70-80k prices in Europe (except Germany). Europe has massive unsatisfied demand. Berlin will feed this monstrous appetite.

Also, deliveries are projected to be 1.6-1.8 million this year... how are you getting to 3.6 million next year?

First, for a top-down estimate let's consider Elon's recent guidance of 70-80+% annual growth. Even 80% growth from 0.95M gets us to 3.1M, but he sandbags this stuff now and said it might be higher than that in the future. 3.6M would be 95% annual growth, continuing the actual recent trend of almost doubling production annually.

I'll add more detail later but for now, I'm looking at 1 million from Berlin & Austin combined, 0.65 million from Fremont, and 2 million from Shanghai.

I'd put a 95% confidence interval for 2023 as 3-4 million (S-curve hard to predict, supply chain questions, new manufacturing tech, etc...)

 

[Big Time]

My guess is that Austin Texas is going to pwn Berlin in the ramp. If they both started a year from today, I would expect 90K per quarter out of Berlin a year from today and 130 per quarter out of Austin. @Gigapress in terms of your 2023 predictions. I think that your delivery numbers are very high, don't forget its going to take 3 quarters to get to anywhere near 100K per quarter per new factory..

I think full year 2023 cumulative deliveries out of Berlin and Austin around 1 Million.

 

[MTBEndodontist]

Does anyone have any insight on Mercedes' driverless tech? "Mercedes-Benz has developed the world’s first production car with what’s called SAE Level 3 driver assistance, and will deliver these vehicles to US customers later this year."

This new Mercedes self-driving system lets you take your eyes off the road

 

[Gigapress]

My guess is that Austin Texas is going to pwn Berlin in the ramp. If they both started a year from today, I would expect 90K per quarter out of Berlin a year from today and 130 per quarter out of Austin. @Gigapress in terms of your 2023 predictions. I think that your delivery numbers are very high, don't forget its going to take 3 quarters to get to anywhere near 100K per quarter per new factory..

I think full year 2023 cumulative deliveries out of Berlin and Austin around 1 Million.

1M is also my 2023 cumulative Berlin + Austin production.

0.65 million for Fremont would be up from 0.45 annualized in Q4 21. That's a matter of getting supplies to run at full speed, ramping S&X back to 0.1M like 2018, and upgrading the ancient 3&Y lines sometime in 2022.

1.95M is my 2023 Shanghai estimate up from 0.8M annualized in Dec 21. Like Fremont, Shanghai was at partial capacity due to supply. It's been increasing the monthly production rate by about 5k every month. Extrapolating that linearly gets me to 1.7M for 2023. That may taper off to slower growth, but they're also opening the whole new facility later this year that I think will do 0.25M for 2023.

Total estimate is 3.6M

 

[Ogre]

Does anyone have any insight on Mercedes' driverless tech? "Mercedes-Benz has developed the world’s first production car with what’s called SAE Level 3 driver assistance, and will deliver these vehicles to US customers later this year."

This new Mercedes self-driving system lets you take your eyes off the road

SAE Levels are worthless.

Its "Level 3"... on highways in Germany below 37 MPH.

How much time do you spend on the highway below 37 MPH with no expectation of speeding up? Personally... maybe 120 minutes per year. Maybe.