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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Has any anti-trust action ever been undertaken (let alone undertaken successfully) against a company with a single digit market share?

If not (and I'm fairly sure the answer is no) maybe we can table the silly OMG MONOPOLY GOVERNMENT WORRIES discussion until Tesla gets to at least 10% of vehicles sold? (Or 10% of all insurance issued, or 10% of all energy supplied, or 10% of all operating robotaxis, etc...)

(as a practical matter- a court generally won't consider a monopoly claim at less than 50% market share either- but I figure we start small)
It's not a worry until Tesla is dominating like 10-20 years from now, but that's when the big profits will be earned. The potential for targeted anticompetitive government activity is a liability discounting those future profits.

My history with Boeing is a big reason I think about this. 100 years ago, Boeing was a lot like Tesla, and Bill Boeing was a lot like Elon Musk: a swashbuckling, visionary American industrialist with big dreams, thought by many to be crazy and doomed to fail, using wealth from a prior entrepreneurial venture to lead a technological revolution in transportation that would forever transform human civilization.

Over the first two decades, Boeing Airplane Company gradually expanded in the scope of their ambition to become a vertically integrated aviation company called United Aircraft and Transport Company, including all aspects of aircraft design, fabrication and assembly as well as collecting a portfolio several regional airlines that were then combined into United Air Lines. UATC was essentially the aviation version of what Tesla is attempting for ground transport.

To make a long story short, the US Federal government ending up forcibly dissolving UATC, arguably unjustly.

Some key differences. First, Tesla has been developing all their major business units internally from scratch rather than via mergers and acquisitions. Also, UATC's breakup was prosecuted under a special law, the Air Mail Act of 1934, written in the aftermath of a US Postal Service air mail contracting political scandal. The Act specifically prohibited this kind of vertical integration in aviation. Although no one cares about the air mail scandal anymore, its legacy remains in Boeing's strict separation from their former UATC partners (Pratt & Whitney and United Airlines) and also in Boeing's lack of jet engine production or in-house airline.

I am concerned about the small but non-negligible probability that Tesla will be similarly targeted by some political interest alleging anticompetitive or unfair practices as a pretext for passing legislation to disintegrate the company and jeopardize the Master Plan's timely completion.

 
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I have held TSLA for many years and I am well aware of how the market works but it is still amazing to me that the movers manage to push the stock down right before an event that is sure to provide evidence of the company's growth, innovation and resilience. It's almost as if they know what's coming and just can't let it run.

Hmmm...

Dan
 
Lmao, anti-trust? Who the eff thought that up? Tesla's not even allowed to sell in like half of fifty states.
For now yes, but unless legitimate competition springs up out of nowhere in the next couple decades, then it's only a matter of time before this risk could materialize in ways that might knock trillions off of Tesla's future value.
 
For now yes, but unless legitimate competition springs up out of nowhere in the next couple decades, then it's only a matter of time before this risk could materialize in ways that might knock trillions off of Tesla's future value.
That is silly. I don't know what it is with some of you guys but all this doom and gloom is some loopy *sugar*. Tesla has like 2%-3% of vehicles sales in this country and ya think for now they are safe from anti-trust? Let's give the shorts for inane ideas to float out there yea?
 
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@Krugerrand Did your mom's financial advisor ask her for advice on TSLA stock investing any time recently?
So funny story, Mom worked 40 years in a bank and has all her investments in the bank. Not BoA, but let’s not let that ruin the story. When it comes to numbers, money, calculating interest charges, et al, the ONLY person more boring exacting than her is @The Accountant. So, yeah. They probably called her first.

Adding: Mom remembers every bank vault combination she had to learn over the years.
 
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I have held TSLA for many years and I am well aware of how the market works but it is still amazing to me that the movers manage to push the stock down right before an event that is sure to provide evidence of the company's growth, innovation and resilience. It's almost as if they know what's coming and just can't let it run.

Shortzes* are more predictable than the monsoon, except they come 4 times a year.

Cheers!

*Hedge funds which also have the Options Market-Maker exception to the #SEC ban on naked shorting.
 
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This seems to ignore the percentage of cars on the roads at peak times as well as the number of people who don't want to share their vehicles with others. Strangers will never be in my vehicles.
And what if it costs 10x as much as it does now to have a vehicle to yourself? Do you want it that much? People will gravitate to what the market provides. If you don't, things tend to be either very inconvenient or very expensive.
 
I have held TSLA for many years and I am well aware of how the market works but it is still amazing to me that the movers manage to push the stock down right before an event that is sure to provide evidence of the company's growth, innovation and resilience. It's almost as if they know what's coming and just can't let it run.

Hmmm...

Dan
I suspect the manipulators and shorts didnt have to work very hard. See, stocks dont go up in a straight line unless a lot of short term bets were piled on in anticipation of a positive catalyst and when those bets get unwound the down move can be just as rapid as the up move. TSLA deserves to outperform the market due to obvious fundamental reasons but I foresaw this playing out weeks ago with the exception of a future stock split announcement.
Call my a skeptic but I suspect this is how big money is gonna lure retails in for the next leg down. Don't get me wrong, TSLA is in a class of its own. However, I'm struggling to see what has changed since last week and the week before. Existing macro issues are still unresolved and Tesla is still the same company. The stock is the bullish indicator for the market and so if big money wants to pump the market, it will pump TSLA. Considering P&D is a positive catalyst, pumping TSLA right now is a very low risk move. Not a lot of shorts are willing to short in front of P&D. Why now? Well 4/12 is when March CPI comes out so big money only has a small window of opportunity to suck in more money and create some sort of a short term high.
I expect to see us bottom out at 975, 940 at the lowest, if SPY holds 427.

I never sell. Not. One. Single. Share. In fact, just bought 100 more the last couple of weeks with the money I got from trading, despite knowing the uptrend wasnt gonna last.
 
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So funny story, Mom worked 40 years in a bank and has all her investments in the bank. Not BoA, but let’s not let that ruin the story. When it comes to numbers, money, calculating interest charges, et al, the ONLY person more boring exacting than her is @The Accountant. So, yeah. They probably called her first.

Adding: Mom remembers every bank vault combination she had to learn over the years.
Chances are one of those combinations she remembers is still valid...kinda like passwords...they just get reused over and over.
 
I suspect the manipulators and shorts didnt have to work very hard. See, stocks dont go up in a straight line unless a lot of short term bets were piled on in anticipation of a positive catalyst and when those bets get unwound the down move can be just as rapid as the up move. TSLA deserves to outperform the market due to obvious fundamental reasons but I foresaw this playing out weeks ago with the exception of a future stock split announcement.

I expect to see us bottom out at 975, 940 at the lowest, if SPY holds 427.

I never sell. Not. One. Single. Share. In fact, just bought 100 more the last couple of weeks with the money I got from trading, despite knowing the uptrend wasnt gonna last.
I expect to see us bottom out at 975, 940 at the lowest - You mean for this push down right? Cause i can't handle it going any lower than that:)

/s
 
Re Elon and Twitter, the Bluesky project, just announced by Twitter's (now Square/ Block) Jack Dorsey: this may trace back to the Pravduh period, when Elon was complaining about the lack of trustworthy objective news organizations.

Turns out to be a side project of Twitter, funded separately, which has to do with establishing a new kind of social network discussion that is less problematic than all the ones we've seen so far.

Meld that with Tesla's mission, to accelerate the advent of renewable energy, with SpaceX, leading to a better future for humanity - what would be better than improving the news, information and general knowledge space everyone on this planet is inextricably wedded (welded?) into, and which really guides all our decisions/ opinions, from voting, acting and purchasing, regardless of any rational thinking?
Too ambitious and out there to be part of Elon's forthcoming Tesla' Master Plan part Trois?

From


...

Phase 1: The idea​

The bluesky project began with a tweet by Jack Dorsey announcing Twitter’s intentions to fund the development of an open protocol for decentralized social media. .."Jack wrote The biggest and long term goal is to build a durable and open protocol for public conversation. That it not be owned by any one organization but contributed by as many as possible. And that it is born and evolved on the internet with the same principles.” ...
...

Phase 2: The community​


Sometime in 2020, Twitter put out a request for proposals to the community group. Several of us wrote technical proposals on how we thought a novel decentralized social protocol could work, either building on existing protocols or starting from scratch. In 2021, ...

Phase 3: The company​


In the last few weeks of 2021, we got the Bluesky PBLLC established and funded. We decided to keep the community as a separate organization, funded through grants from the Bluesky company, so it can function as an inclusive forum while the company pursues more focused research and development. At the Bluesky company we want to start being more public, having more conversations with companies besides Twitter, and engaging with other protocols, but first we need to finish hiring and articulate the technical vision for our proposed direction. In the meantime, the community continues to be a place for discussion and debate, where we participate but do not drive conversations.
....

Bluesky-community​


by Golda Velez

" ..When I saw the announcement about bluesky I felt this effort was tremendously important, but also could be really hard to get right. My perspective on it was shaped by work in risk, where we have organized attackers, and human rights work, where we can see the effect on people of both authoritarian control of networks and the real dangers of disinformation tactics. If Bluesky can enable open public conversation that is resistant to manipulation, yet in which players can innovate and evolve rapidly, then we really have something. "
...


=====

For completeness, adding here a summary of Elon's Master Plan part 1 and 2 from Electrek :

" On August 2, 2006, Musk published a blog post titled “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me).” ( Part 1)

The post is worth a read, but it ends in a summary with the core principle being laid out in four steps:
  1. Build sports car.
  2. Use that money to build an affordable car.
  3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car.
  4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options.
It didn’t happen smoothly, but Tesla managed that for the most part with the Roadster, Model S, and then Model 3.

In 2016, Musk followed up with the “Tesla Master Plan Part 2.”

Part 2 came as Tesla was delivering the Model 3 and acquiring Solar City, which are basically the last two steps of the original plans.

In Part 2, Musk emphasized the integration of energy storage with renewable energy generation under the new “Tesla Energy” division. The creation of the solar roof was also announced in the plan.
...
Musk summarized the Master Plan Part 2 at the end:
  1. Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage.
  2. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments.
  3. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning.
  4. Enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it.
Among the other segments mentioned in the plan, Musk mentioned “a new kind of pickup,” which ended up being the Cybertruck; a compact SUV, the Model Y; a “heavy-duty truck, which became the Tesla Semi; and finally “high passenger-density urban transport.”
..... "
 
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For now yes, but unless legitimate competition springs up out of nowhere in the next couple decades, then it's only a matter of time before this risk could materialize in ways that might knock trillions off of Tesla's future value.

Legitimate competition does nothing to mitigate real anti-trust concerns because monopolies are not illegal. This is a common misunderstanding. Illegal behavior is that which stifles competition unfairly and superior engineering and efficient manufacturing and delivery do not fall into that category.

As you admitted, the Boeing case was not prosecuted under anti-trust law which I recommend reading up on before saying it's a risk to Tesla down the road. Tesla has none of the type "A" competitive behavior that is offensive to anti-trust law. It's ridiculous to equate a lack of real competition with anti-trust concerns.

If you want to argue that Tesla will, in the future, start to use anti-competitive practices, then please explain why you think that. Because it makes no sense given Tesla's mission statement and Elon's past history.