2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
You do know they closed the Chicken Ranch in La Grange, right?
Count how many Tesla cars you see and report back. Have a good ride.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Count how many Tesla cars you see and report back. Have a good ride.
Never mind, I'm wrong. More than happy to be an Elon Musk stan from here on out after catching up on the news surrounding everything he's doing today.
Think bigger time!
thesmokingman
Active Member
My favorite comment from that thread...
"You forgot to fly by the sales people at the dealerships adding $25K "dealer fees" to the base price of the car..."
Its a good video… but why on earth did they feel compelled to turn it into a full on advertisement? They should have just done the fly through and not done the distracting/ annoying info-blurbs.
The video where the 2 guys were walking around the Cybertruck comparing it to a kitchen appliance was better. People laughed at it and reposted it. Mission accomplished. This video is a well done advert… but clearly an advert.
Didn’t Amazon just announce a 20:1 split *and* a buyback.
Maybe Tesla should buyback shares equal to Musk’s sales.
Dang that Zindler…You do know they closed the Chicken Ranch in La Grange, right?
Count how many Tesla cars you see and report back. Have a good ride.
Correct, it doesn't. Also, margin alone wouldn't have given me the amount I needed.
I hear what you're saying, but some of us aren't in a position to get a bank loan/mortgage any more. Age, employment status and the general state of the mortage market now mean that, at least in the UK, there are people like me who will never be able to get a big loan to buy a house the way we did back in the '80s and '90s. I have the highest credit rating possible and an impecible record when it comes to repaying mortages and loans, but there's nothing available to someone like me who's 100% invested in one stock and self-employed.This is long winded and a bit rambling ....but your post triggered this response ... though it may be a bit tangential .. was going to delete but it may be useful to someone.....
the Twitter deal is not the real issue ... it could have been any number of black swan events either Macro or Tesla specific that could trigger these price swings
Elon has specifically stated more than once that if you invest in TSLA ... expect volatility why?
because EM is taking on big oil, big auto , big advertising, mainstream media , big energy , and big politics which all are being disrupted by Tesla in one way or another so their efforts to stop him/Tesla will be real and will have an impact on SP. and sometimes it will be Elon himself causing the volatility as we saw last fall and this week
EM is a strategic thinker and he has decided he needs Twitter as it is a primary advertising platform for Tesla... his key concern is not retail investors/traders in Tesla who go beyond simple buy and hold by using options, margin loans, or some other derivatives with TSLA shares as collateral .. he will absolutely not consider you in his decision making process to sell TSLA shares ...
now to your issue at hand
sorry to hear this happened and hopefully SP recovers early next week s o you can minimize number of shares you need to sell ... many fall into this trap ... especially younger folks who have not lived through extended downturns ....
this is exactly why my recent new home loan was done the old fashioned way cash plus a low interest bank/credit union loan ... i am not willing to part with a single TSLA share... buy using your shares as collateral you have lost control of some portion of your TSLA shares ... an consequently you have to worry about volatility in the SP
saving a couple points on a securities backed loan vs traditional mortgage or home equity will result in interest expense savings over the life of a loan that will look like a really bad decision in 10 years time if TSLA stock grows the way many of us think it will .. lesson learned i hope
you really don't want to mix your home financing with your stock investments ... unless you like not sleeping many nights
And you've probably guessed, I'm not a 'young folk'.
I'm just not knowledgable enough about options trading to understand if this is a good choice for me or not! Any (non) advice welcome though...
Given the risks in option trading, this is in my opinion not something that you should start doing without first getting a thorough understanding of what you will be doing and the risks that are involved. Quite a few before you have learned that the hard way.
No matter how good the (non) advice is that will be given here.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
For me, options are like cryptocurrency. I don't understand it, so I'm staying the hell away from it. Just my $.02.
Dan
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
"Slime in the ICE machine" has a whole different meaning now, doesn't it?Dang that Zindler…
2 yrs ago today, I wrote this assessment of Tesla and the course of the Auto industry. How'd I do?
Artful Dodger - Apr 29, 2020 - #68
I don't know what tomorrow will bring, but I'm not concerned either. Here's the big picture in the auto industry as I see it:
So come what may on Thursday, I'm looking toward 2025 and beyond and the view is splendid. BTW, Ron Baron isn't selling...
- The Competition is NOT coming:
- Both Ford and VW are having major delays with their nascent EV programs
- EVs aren't as easy as ICE, as Mercedes found out with their EQC "conversion".
- The awful efficiency of much-hyped offerings like Audi's E-tron and Porsche's Taycan only showcases Tesla's vast lead in technology (World-beaters, and getting better daily)
- Auto giant Toyota doesn't have a competitive EV (have they finally given up on 'fool cells'?) while some Japanese marques don't even HAVE an EV program (good grief)
- With Tesla's launch of the MiC Model 3, they have INSTANTLY become the premier domestic EV brand, and are on a path to dominate the Chinese AUTO market, the largest in the World
- Established Automakers are on the Ropes:We've long known on this Forum that a mere 10% drop in sales wipes out the profitability of large marques who already operate on razor-thin margins. With the Covid-19 crisis driving down their sales:
- many face bankrupcy and may seek Gov't support
- most (or all) are cancelling dividends, a sacred cow for investors
- many face credit downgrades making the cost of capital burdensome
- Tesla is in great shape to weather a downturn:
- There is a untapped pool of customers ripe for Tesla's numerous demand levers
- The Model Y SUV is becoming available in N.America just in time to capture market share in a larger market and with a product with higher gross margins than Model 3
- Tesla has a strong balance sheet, and is likely STILL cash-flow positive even in a downturn
- New factories and new products strengthen demand each quarter while they gain access to new markets and new segments of those markets
- Tesla is NOT your father's 8-yr old sedan:
- Semi is both a product and a technology stack that is poised to sweep away the competition in the trucking / logistics industry: Even in a recession, goods must flow and ACCOUNTANTS call the shots
- Solar Roof is a game changer. Starting in California and working outward, anybody with means and a desire for the security that comes with independace from the Grid will sign up
- Tesla Energy is poised to END the use of all NG Peaker plants with its new line of MegaPack utility class energy storage products
- Tesla has a strong and relentless Leadership Team:
- Tesla attracts the best in Engineering talent, because of THE MISSION
- Tesla has a no-quit, double-quick-time rock-star of a CEO that refuses to lose
- Let me say that again: Tesla is so results focused that even its cars have VISION.
Cheers!
You nailed the first three for sure. Well done!
The rest is yet to be seen. Here is my take on it.
Under "Tesla is NOT your father's 8-yr old sedan" you talk about semi, solar roof, and MegaPack.
- Semi depends on 4680 production. My fingers are crossed on that one, but Tesla still hasn't proven it can reach scale.
- I don't think Solar Roof has been given enough mind-share at Tesla. I'm a little afraid of the competition as GAF's Timberline Solar shingles appear to be a LOT easier to install. However, I haven't done an in-depth comparison. If anyone has a good resource, please share.
- I expect MegaPack to take off soon. They are quietly ramping up production and it only requires LFP batteries, which should be plentiful. Besides autos and insurance, it is the only part of the business that can grow quickly without proving out a new technology. MegaPack will be huge.
- I have never bought into the idea that Tesla gets all the best talent. There are many, many talented engineers out there. They take jobs at a particular place and time for many, many reasons. All you can say is that Tesla is able to attract its share of the top talent. You are correct that the mission is extremely important though. Once on the job, dedication is what gets the most out of a great engineer. So Tesla has that going for it. But another company with a compelling mission can also get great work out of great engineers. It's a competitive advantage, but not a moat.
- The Twitter thing does have me worried about our rock-star CEO. I don't see how this will not take a ton of Elon's time and attention. If Elon loses focus, Tesla loses focus. Also, Elon seems to be venturing more and more into politics and the culture war. No good can come of that. I don't want that stuff to be on the mind of those talented Tesla engineers. So far, Tesla has transcended politics and culture by being right about technology and creating mind-blowing products. I'm worried that Elon now wants to get down in the gutter instead of just continuing with his winning formula.
- Right now Tesla's vision is unmatched by any other company. If Tesla can stay focused on that vision, everything else will work out fine.
Skipping everything else. Advertising is paid promotion. Tesla does not do advertising and has never done advertising. This is not simple semantics. Advertising for other OEMs consumes typically 3-5% of Actual Sales Price. Advertising is done by OEM directly, by distributors and dealers. It is done for corporate promotion, brand promotion, model promotion and individual dealer promotion. Advertising is done on social media, TV, radio, newspapers and magazines.
This very lack of advertising is a large contributor to Tesla profitability. It is crucial for us to understand that.
One type of highly effective Tesla promotion has been the use of Twitter. Twitter does have costs for commercial-style accounts:
All of that said, until more has been disclosed we have no way to discern whether Twitter will end out being consequential to us as TSLA investors. Certainly Tesla and Elon Musk presence on that platform have generated material effects, not least, in SEC prosecution. We shall see...but it is NOT advertising.
dgodfrey
Member
If I may, since you asked, I'll try to bullet point @Max Plaid's reasoning since he's probably not up yet being in Belgium and all. Apologies if off base.
If you planned on selling shares today anyway, a LEAP covered call for 3/17/23 exp. at $880 strike would pay you >$21k. Not knowing how many shares you planned to sell, this is for a block of 100 shares.
I use the same theory with a few sold weekly Puts that I hold. I tell myself I want to buy more TSLA but at a lower strike than SP is currently and use the premium to live on (retired not claiming SSI) or buy more shares. Usually they don't hit and when they do, I end up rolling them lower anyway. I probably won't ever let them execute as the premiums on the cash outperform my non-TSLA IRA.
Not the right thread for this but if you want to learn more, visit the Selling TSLA Options Thread.
The more EVs, the better!
My only concern is, it looks less like a production plant and more like a skunk works. Very leisurely, nothing moving quickly, not a lot of activity, regardless of which area of the plant. I mean, they do have 4 or 5 chargers, so that kinda tells you the output...
FYI, I think when they say "get the most talented engineers", they mean out of college. And that's probably true.
The more important differentiation with Tesla is the management. I can't tell you how many times a great idea has been shot down by some non-technical business person for whatever reason (didn't understand it, politics, save a buck, etc.). Or worse, a really bad idea is forced to be implemented by non-technical management. This is why Tesla is such a juggernaut. It seems like all of management have a technical background, or at least most of them do.
Anecdotal story: my buddy worked at Jeep 10 years ago. They vastly improved the interior of the Jeep Wranglers from 2010 to 2011 (to the point where my wife said she would never buy one to us actually owning one). Guess what the price difference between the two was: $110. Trivial on a $25-35k vehicle. Yet some bean-counter held this back for years since $110 x 500,000 vehicles = their bonus. These kind of decisions kill a lot of products.
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