Thus far... TSLA holding up better than the Nasdaq.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Based on the latest Options Open Interest, the balance point between Put and Call walls is just above $750. So we're currently benefiting from MM wanting to keep the price up for options expiry. The current Max Pain of $820 is fairly irrelevant at this point as the options further out will be fully hedged, making around $750-755 the current preferred target.
Yeah 820 seems pointless, but the closer to 800, the less the payout on that higher put OI versus the 750 call.
Yeah there is help in holding up... but 700 is the real support in the chain on the bottom end with 750 being nice. It is also a large drag on going above. Which is why if it gets towards 800 it'll accelerate as more cover have to happen. Today isn't likely the day to test that, but tomorrow and friday look like solid chances. The market wants to end the week under 800 though for sure. Max pain though isn't the best measure. We've seen weeks far below and far above it in the last 7-8 months.
Marketwide there is VIX expiry today which is putting downward pressure on the whole market. As that expires or gets to the level it needs to stabilize, the wider market should recover and put upward pressure on TSLA.
I know your post was in jest, but this is the critical question for a humanoid robot. All other production robots in existence have very cumbersome ways to teach them such you literally need a trained engineer to do so.
All Tesla’s AI shown to date is not compatible with real time continuous learning that would be required to allow users to easily teach their bots. Tesla AI has a giant supercomputer used to train the neural net that actually runs in the car. The car does not learn, all it does is provide video back to the supercomputer for the next round of offline training.
IMHO, Teslabot will require a completely different AI architecture, one that researchers have barely begun scratching the surface of, to be useful.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Paging @StarFoxisDown! ......we have a significant outperformance. Please call MM's immediately to rectify.
ZachF
Active Member
Yep.
An environmental rating brought to you by the same people who gave you ‘zero risk’ mortgage backed securities… less than worthless
Stock picker’s market? Finally?
In addition to TSLA outperforming, my solars, renewables and some biotech are green against the grain for the first time in years! Seriously.
Indicates indiscriminate across the board selling may finally be on the way out. Market trying to find a real bottom here but the wild card of course is recession. Any Confirmation of this will bring new lows.
In addition to TSLA outperforming, my solars, renewables and some biotech are green against the grain for the first time in years! Seriously.
Indicates indiscriminate across the board selling may finally be on the way out. Market trying to find a real bottom here but the wild card of course is recession. Any Confirmation of this will bring new lows.
This is a real positive day so far... if vix stabilizes at ~27.50 now with a bleed through the day to 27, we should see that pressure fall off tomorrow. Nasdaq is holding 11,700 and SP500 is holding 4000. With Tesla showing relative strength. A wider market recover and push to 12,000 should have Tesla rally pretty strong.
New report from Bloomberg NEF on a status report for the EV transition
This is a really interesting chart along those lines. Points to me that recession is priced in or nearly there.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Word of mouth marketing, especially in the car industry, tends to spread the message from one early adopter to people nearby. This is true both in the literal sense that people who are physically near the product and its owner are much more likely to witness its usage and have a discussion to learn more, but also in the abstract sense that people who are nearby socially (family, friends, coworkers, neighbors, acquaintances) are much more likely to be on the receiving end of an early adopter’s evangelization.
This dynamic explains, in part, why areas like LA, SF, Seattle, Norway, and Holland are so far ahead of the curve in EV and Tesla adoption. Various factors like culture, government incentives, purchasing power and connection to America/the anglophone world help a location hit an early tipping point with first movers and then exponential viral spread grows the level of awareness, understanding, interest and the desire in the local population.
While mere correlation does not imply causation, it’s interesting to note that the growth of the Tesla order backlog and the beginning of major Tesla price increases began in early July ‘21, which was just weeks after the grand opening of the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop for the World of Concrete convention on June 8th ‘21. This was a small convention to start with because the impact on public health was being cautiously observed before moving to big normal conventions or huge ones like CES and SEMA. LVCC had previously been holding virtual conventions.
According to the Boring Co website, Loop has operated at “all subsequent conventions” and “At SEMA 2021, LVCC Loop transported between 24,000 and 26,000 passengers per day. At CES 2022, LVCC Loop transported between 14,000 and 17,000 passengers per day”.
SEMA 2021 was 4 days, so ridership in total was ~100k passenger trips.
CES 2022 was 3 days for ~50k rides.
150k total Tesla rides in 7 total days.
Many people probably rode multiple times either because of showing up to the convention on multiple days or because they rode to the end of the LVCC opposite from where they parked and then rode back when ready to head towards their car. Roughly speaking this probably knocks down the number of unique riders by 2x.
Most conventions are smaller than SEMA & CES.
From skimming through the LVCC calendar it appears that often multiple smaller conventions are held simultaneously but on the other hand, occasional gaps without conventions also exist.
6k rides per day is perhaps more of the overall daily average for a conservative estimate. With 11 months of operation to date and a 2x conversion factor from rides to unique passengers, this implies LVCC Loop has served approximately 6k*11.25/12*365/2= 1 million unique passengers off an estimated 2 million rides total.
This block of 1 million people is probably close to a perfect simple random sample of the rich world’s general car-buying population, except for an obvious bias towards Americans and Canadians, but we tend to buy more cars, especially Teslas, than others do anyway. Europeans and East Asians have denser cities and good alternative options for bus/train/bike/foot and hardly anyone lives in Australia & New Zealand (no offense). This is quite different from the demographic that is exposed through the previously dominant marketing channel of existing Tesla owners who, as mentioned above, are concentrated in a few areas worldwide. In other words, most LVCC Loop riders are neither in nor adjacent to the Tesla social bubble. For most of them I would bet this is their very first exposure to any EV.
Nothing sells Teslas more than butts in seats, as nearly two decades of empirical evidence has conclusively demonstrated. In the famous words of Steven Mark Ryan, “The more Teslas Tesla sells, the more Teslas Tesla sells.” Although LVCC Loop is a short ride and the passengers don’t get to experience the full extent of the Tesla’s acceleration and handling, on the other hand the drivers are extremely well practiced at answering questions and talking about Tesla and EVs in ways noobs can understand, because they’re trained for it and do it all day long. Also, people who get in a Tesla for the first time often describe the feeling as being like riding in a spaceship. Imagine if your first time also included the novelty factor of being in Las Vegas, at a convention that is likely a highlight of your trip, and riding in the colorful little tunnels. All of these factors increase the thrill and memorability of the experience. Boring Co even tweeted that club music will be added sometime next year.
Most riders have reported that using the Loop was fun and convenient. Further intensifying the effect is that most of the riders are in groups and probably many tend to continue talking amongst themselves about the Loop and the cars for some time after the ride is over and then again once they return home and talk to people about their trip to Vegas.
This reasoning leads me to believe that Loop has been a major contributor to the profound awakening to the desirability of EVs, and it’s about to grow from 1.7 miles to 29 miles, just in the first city. This is what exponential growth and S-curve adoption looks like. Get ready.
This dynamic explains, in part, why areas like LA, SF, Seattle, Norway, and Holland are so far ahead of the curve in EV and Tesla adoption. Various factors like culture, government incentives, purchasing power and connection to America/the anglophone world help a location hit an early tipping point with first movers and then exponential viral spread grows the level of awareness, understanding, interest and the desire in the local population.
While mere correlation does not imply causation, it’s interesting to note that the growth of the Tesla order backlog and the beginning of major Tesla price increases began in early July ‘21, which was just weeks after the grand opening of the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop for the World of Concrete convention on June 8th ‘21. This was a small convention to start with because the impact on public health was being cautiously observed before moving to big normal conventions or huge ones like CES and SEMA. LVCC had previously been holding virtual conventions.
According to the Boring Co website, Loop has operated at “all subsequent conventions” and “At SEMA 2021, LVCC Loop transported between 24,000 and 26,000 passengers per day. At CES 2022, LVCC Loop transported between 14,000 and 17,000 passengers per day”.
SEMA 2021 was 4 days, so ridership in total was ~100k passenger trips.
CES 2022 was 3 days for ~50k rides.
150k total Tesla rides in 7 total days.
Many people probably rode multiple times either because of showing up to the convention on multiple days or because they rode to the end of the LVCC opposite from where they parked and then rode back when ready to head towards their car. Roughly speaking this probably knocks down the number of unique riders by 2x.
Most conventions are smaller than SEMA & CES.
From skimming through the LVCC calendar it appears that often multiple smaller conventions are held simultaneously but on the other hand, occasional gaps without conventions also exist.
6k rides per day is perhaps more of the overall daily average for a conservative estimate. With 11 months of operation to date and a 2x conversion factor from rides to unique passengers, this implies LVCC Loop has served approximately 6k*11.25/12*365/2= 1 million unique passengers off an estimated 2 million rides total.
This block of 1 million people is probably close to a perfect simple random sample of the rich world’s general car-buying population, except for an obvious bias towards Americans and Canadians, but we tend to buy more cars, especially Teslas, than others do anyway. Europeans and East Asians have denser cities and good alternative options for bus/train/bike/foot and hardly anyone lives in Australia & New Zealand (no offense). This is quite different from the demographic that is exposed through the previously dominant marketing channel of existing Tesla owners who, as mentioned above, are concentrated in a few areas worldwide. In other words, most LVCC Loop riders are neither in nor adjacent to the Tesla social bubble. For most of them I would bet this is their very first exposure to any EV.
Nothing sells Teslas more than butts in seats, as nearly two decades of empirical evidence has conclusively demonstrated. In the famous words of Steven Mark Ryan, “The more Teslas Tesla sells, the more Teslas Tesla sells.” Although LVCC Loop is a short ride and the passengers don’t get to experience the full extent of the Tesla’s acceleration and handling, on the other hand the drivers are extremely well practiced at answering questions and talking about Tesla and EVs in ways noobs can understand, because they’re trained for it and do it all day long. Also, people who get in a Tesla for the first time often describe the feeling as being like riding in a spaceship. Imagine if your first time also included the novelty factor of being in Las Vegas, at a convention that is likely a highlight of your trip, and riding in the colorful little tunnels. All of these factors increase the thrill and memorability of the experience. Boring Co even tweeted that club music will be added sometime next year.
Most riders have reported that using the Loop was fun and convenient. Further intensifying the effect is that most of the riders are in groups and probably many tend to continue talking amongst themselves about the Loop and the cars for some time after the ride is over and then again once they return home and talk to people about their trip to Vegas.
This reasoning leads me to believe that Loop has been a major contributor to the profound awakening to the desirability of EVs, and it’s about to grow from 1.7 miles to 29 miles, just in the first city. This is what exponential growth and S-curve adoption looks like. Get ready.
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Probably not as reliable a chart given that a lot of our pullback is Fed-related. Normally the Fed is a backstop going into a recession, but not this time. At least not yet.
If Tesla can pull that off, it will be Teslabot to the moon, from an investors‘ perspective. I’m not optimistic about that, however. My iPhone sends Siri instructions for central processing to a server; it is not done on the phone. And that is “just“ language… . I often think about things I do whether a robot could do that or would screw up. It is often the latter. You have to know a LOT (understand the real world), to avoid that. We’ll wait and see.
See to me that chart is saying we are heading into a recession and the market is going down even further from here. I like your optimistic outlook and I hope you are right, but I guess I'm not seeing what you are?
Cognitive dissonance here, did they not read the Tesla 2021 Impact report?
Ah ha! Tesla did not promote a "carbon strategy". Of course their rating dropped.
But, directly from the Tesla Impact report:
So Tesla has already fully achieved net zero (over the last 8 years of cumulative operation no less and including every Tesla ever charged) but their rating dropped because they have no carbon "strategy"? What "strategy" do you need if you already won the battle?
(Asking for a conscientious ESG investor.)
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