Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

See to me that chart is saying we are heading into a recession and the market is going down even further from here. I like your optimistic outlook and I hope you are right, but I guess I'm not seeing what you are?

Yeah, my takeaway was that “if we avoid one” we will bounce.

Indicators are aligning left and right that recession cometh.

Silver lining? Should solve our inflation problem.

Small favours indeed. Recessions crush the middle and lower class. So this sucks.

All the talking heads have concluded that demand destruction is a must and this means the middle class struggling and poor people getting poorer Is good.

As for us, if we keep our heads and stay the course, TSLA will rocket up again at some point due to the fact that it is taking over the world.

Keep calm and carry on. Lend someone a hand if you can and they need it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Probably not as reliable a chart given that a lot of our pullback is Fed-related. Normally the Fed is a backstop going into a recession, but not this time. At least not yet.

I think you'revcontradicting yourself a bit here. The market is more informed than ever, and the Fed more transparent than ever, therefore we've priced in far more predicted activity than ever.

Let's say oil continues higher and drags the markets down with it and we experience a moderate recession this summer/fall and into winter. Do you think the Fed won't pause? They're a semi-private institution that pays no fees/interest and would love nothing more than to pause the selling of all the nonsense on their books.

A pause in rate raises and QT then has as much of a stimulative effect as an actual rate cut. Because we've already priced in so much. Not to mention, we'll have raised by 1.5% by the time any real recession is apparent.

To me this all comes down to the reality of inflation. Looking at today's oil futures markets, I say this inflation is 60% gouging/horseshit and 40% lingering covid disruptions. There is no real scarcity or tightness in the world today, we just need these lingering pandemic impacts to unwind completely. There are plenty working to keep them in place....

 

[Knightshade]

If Tesla can pull that off, it will be Teslabot to the moon, from an investors‘ perspective. I’m not optimistic about that, however. My iPhone sends Siri instructions for central processing to a server; it is not done on the phone.

FWIW this hasn't been true for almost a year now-

iOS 15: How to Use On-Device Siri

In iOS 14 and earlier, Siri on iPhone and iPad doesn't work properly without an internet connection. For years now, the virtual assistant has had...

www.macrumors.com

In iOS 15, however, Apple has made some major changes to the way ‌Siri‌ works. Now, all ‌Siri‌ speech processing and personalization occurs locally on your device

That said, this is worlds away from being able to train bot AI locally on entirely new tasks--- Siri isn't "learning" new skills locally, it's just doing speech recognition to run existing code locally.

I don't expect broad local AI/NN training on Optimus- Teslas current NN training is running on systems insanely insanely more powerful than anything local HW is going to be capable of for years yet.

It'll likely need to "learn" things like basic layout of a factory it's working in but that'd be more akin to uploading map updates the cars get independent of the firmware that the FSD NNs still use, rather than actual learning.

 

[henchman24]

Probably not as reliable a chart given that a lot of our pullback is Fed-related. Normally the Fed is a backstop going into a recession, but not this time. At least not yet.

The pullback is uncertainty related. Negative GDP putting soft landing into a major question. Inflation not calming down. Interest rates that could go beyond neutral. Job market incredibly tight. Supply chains still a mess. I'd say the Fed is a major factor, but the economy in general is a bigger factor. If inflation tames at any point, the Fed can soften its stance.

See to me that chart is saying we are heading into a recession and the market is going down even further from here. I like your optimistic outlook and I hope you are right, but I guess I'm not seeing what you are?

The blue line is the average when recessions happen and we are below that trend already and went lower than the average drop already. Based on averages throughout time, we have already overcorrected.

 

[henchman24]

Overall market at an important spot... break here and we could re-test the lows, hold and it reaffirms support.

 

[JupiterMan]

but that'd be more akin to uploading map updates the cars get independent of the firmware that the FSD NNs still use, rather than actual learning.

I suspect that Optimus will populate its own locally held maps itself. As it initially explores its environment it should be able to build its own reference of where things are - and also, crucially, update it as things change.

Relying on uploading maps is not scalable - just like for a car/FSD.

 

[Knightshade]

I suspect that Optimus will populate its own locally held maps itself. As it initially explores its environment it should be able to build its own reference of where things are - and also, crucially, update it as things change.

Relying on uploading maps is not scalable - just like for a car/FSD.

Except the car/FSD relies on uploading maps today.

Doing it for the factory layout would be vastly simpler and easier than the way it works in cars today since it'll just need the layout for a single building or site, not "the entire continent"

Likely Tesla would offer a tool to customers to let them edit those maps-- with the added advantage of if you change something in your layout you don't need to waste a bunch of time letting bots "relearn" where a hallway goes- you just update the master map and OTA it to the bot fleet.


That said further discussion probably ought move over here someplace:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[BriansTesla]

If Tesla can pull that off, it will be Teslabot to the moon, from an investors‘ perspective. I’m not optimistic about that, however. My iPhone sends Siri instructions for central processing to a server; it is not done on the phone. And that is “just“ language… . I often think about things I do whether a robot could do that or would screw up. It is often the latter. You have to know a LOT (understand the real world), to avoid that. We’ll wait and see.

But wouldn't the Teslabot be in constant contact with the server? How to make pasta? Use a vacuum cleaner? Play chess? Repair a zipper?

Blinks eyes and downloads the subroutine.

Well, maybe not that last one.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I think you'revcontradicting yourself a bit here. The market is more informed than ever, and the Fed more transparent than ever, therefore we've priced in far more predicted activity than ever.

Let's say oil continues higher and drags the markets down with it and we experience a moderate recession this summer/fall and into winter. Do you think the Fed won't pause? They're a semi-private institution that pays no fees/interest and would love nothing more than to pause the selling of all the nonsense on their books.

A pause in rate raises and QT then has as much of a stimulative effect as an actual rate cut. Because we've already priced in so much. Not to mention, we'll have raised by 1.5% by the time any real recession is apparent.

To me this all comes down to the reality of inflation. Looking at today's oil futures markets, I say this inflation is 60% gouging/horseshit and 40% lingering covid disruptions. There is no real scarcity or tightness in the world today, we just need these lingering pandemic impacts to unwind completely. There are plenty working to keep them in place....

That's fair. I suppose the trickiness arises if a recession doesn't solve our inflation problem. Hopefully, if we get one, it does.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That's fair. I suppose the trickiness arises if a recession doesn't solve our inflation problem. Hopefully, if we get one, it does.

My thesis and hope is that incentive will take care of this before recession has to.

Oil producers know a drawn out recession will literally murder their profits for years. It's far more advantageous for them to ease futures pricing down pretty rapidly from here rather than risk a 70% plunge and stay there.

This balancing act is far more tenuous that most believe. Those maintaining covid "disruptions" to their advantage are really pushing their luck. This "inflation" that could be very easily tamed(since the bar is so low) needs to be addressed by literally a handful of people who can move it with a few words and actions.

 

[Singuy]

Not sure what to think but this is one of the few rare instances that Arkk is outperforming this deep Nasdaq sell off. Seems like this might be a technical retracement as the market obvious has great appetite for risk.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 11:13 EDT: Tesla Got Kicked Out of the S&P 500 ESG Index. Why That's a Shock.

Excerpts:

...Tesla (ticker: TSLA), a company that CEO Elon Musk says he founded to put the world on a path to a sustainable-energy future, doesn't have a comprehensive low-carbon strategy, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"A few of the factors contributing to its 2021 [ESG] Score were a decline in criteria level scores related to Tesla's (lack of) low carbon strategy and codes of business conduct," wrote Maggie Dorn, senior director and head of ESG Indices, North America, at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a blog post...

...Tesla certainly would take exception to the safety assertion. The company produces quarterly reports that indicate Teslas compare favorably with other vehicles on some safety metrics.

"For any element of an ESG score, whether it's the E, S, or G, disclosure is hugely important," Ray McConville, an S&P spokesman, told Barron's via email. "If there isn't a lot of information available, whether its publicly available information or information provided in our Corporate Sustainability Assessment survey, then that would negatively impact a score. So in the case of Tesla and others, the issue is partly a lack of disclosure."

One thing that might help Tesla is public relations. Tesla doesn't have an active PR effort.

Tesla "needs to invest in PR to improve its safety brand equity which is becoming increasingly important in the minds' of EV customers," said Future Fund Active ETF (FFND) co-founder Gary Black. "Teslas are the safest cars in the world, but EV consumers don't know it."...

 

[henchman24]

Breaking 11,600 and batted down upon trying to reclaim is not a positive sign in the short term. The window is open for an 11,100 re-test this week. Need to re-claim 11,600 today for the rally to have much of a chance to get to 12,000 this week.

 

[ZeApelido]

But Exxon are full of nice guys!

Pay no attention to the pollution behind the mirror.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526958110023245829

 

[betstarship]

Rationally, we are seeing more climate disasters worldwide. ESG sounds like it should be a helpful tool in the industry transition to sustainability. The intention is right, but what's the point of a clearly implementation and strategy by the ESG folks?

I'm sorry, what am I missing here...?

 

[snellenr]

View attachment 805746

"Dear S & P Board,

Under the circumstances, Tesla Motors requests that its stock and other securities be removed from S & P products immediately. We plan to seek out other, more relevant rating companies.

Elon Musk "

 

[MartinAustin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526927977258311680

+ when is MSM gonna pick up on this story. The Distortion, is creating Information edge for Tesla Longs ...

How many times did CNBC back in December show a picture of a Hummer EV on the assembly line and report "General Motors has begun shipments of is Hummer EV to customers" ? I lost count. I was able to count how many General Motors was shipping, though. On the fingers of one finger.

Meanwhile, I don't see any reporting on the far larger quantities coming out of Giga Texas

 

[betstarship]

This is crazy.

Im gonna go get some popcorn.

 

[juanmedina]

Here is my local Facebook group:

Thanks Elon

 

[Cherry Wine]

Here is my local Facebook group:

View attachment 805797

Thanks Elon

I think we're getting close to retail capitulation. The mood is getting real sour among the shareholder base online from what I can see. Elon is doing his best to hurry it along with his grievance antics - piling it on even more today.

Honestly, he's been pretty tiring for the last 6 months.