$TSLA goes down 10% in one day ..... ABCDEFUOT
Stonks goes down .... Livin on a Prayer
Stonk goes sideways ..... Keep the Faith
Stonk goes up ..... She's a little runaway
Post stuff like this & you are "Wanted Dead or Alive"cheers!!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
What 250K ?
I thought the "official" TMC expectation number was 83K.
did I miss the memo when that changed ?
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I'm going to flip that from "you" to "I" and say he should be quoting Rise from PIL.
"I could be wrong, I could be right"
but either way I totally agree he should qualify his statements, they are often "wrong" in that he makes them seem absolute.
IDK. I think phone use should give you strikes for using a phone. At least something like a daily timeout. Phone use is incredibly dangerous in any car and we know what will be blamed if something bad happens.
Lynch is considered the greatest ever with a 29% return over 13 years. As we all know most funds can't even beat the S&P500.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dang, with TSLA as a sole holding, my basket only has about a dozen successful stocks.
But I do have Options of FSD, Robotaxi, TE, and an AI startup ('bots, NN trg supercomputer...)
I think the thinking was something like this... they have $X of deferred FSD revenue (I forget but over a billion)... they have Y people who bought FSD.
First, anybody who bought while the description was (paraphrasing) "FSD will come pick you up and drive you wherever you want to go" is out -- that's definitely not been delivered.
Second, anybody who has not received the beta is out.
That might leave (say) 1/10 of Y? People of that group who have the beta and were promised "autosteer on city streets" not "it'll be like a robotaxi". So maybe they can recognize 1/10 of $X? That's still $100M or more.
We saw them recognize revenue for Smart Summon though it's still in beta and still has some issues, so I don't think FSD has to be totally solved to recognize some revenue. I guess the question is whether they think the current beta meets the requirements for "autosteer on city streets" and whether 100K or 200K beta users is an adequately wide rollout.
Definitely not a given, but a possibility I would think.
Reu.ters, ah? What does G L J "Research" say?
Not sure if I trust the former or the latter most.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
TSLA's 5% gain today is much more impressive against a backdrop of declines for S&P500, DOW, S&P/TSX, NASDAQ, Tech stocks, Meme stocks, EV/auto stocks and oil stocks.
This divergence of TSLA from its peers and all other markets shows to where the smart money is flowing.
For Tesla It all comes back to Production and Deliveries ramping back up and up and up. Short term hit due to Shanghai lockdown. Long term looks very healthy. There is no stopping progress.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Going to look, but IIRC they were built onto the end cap plate and could be seen on the gigaberlin and gigaaustin opening day ceremonies.
18650s meet the requirements and are available. Otherwisen it's a net loss of production due to total 2170 production limit. (Energy can use excess 2170 capacity ).
No cooling on ends, holder is for physical isolation and venting. Insideevs was a theory from Battery Day, it misinterpreted the cross sectional view.The entire point of the tabless design was to improve both electrical flow AND heat dissipation at the ends.
Tesla 4680 Cell: Thermal Analysis Suggests Unique Cooling System Design
On Battery day, Tesla told us the biggest barrier to a larger format cell is cooling the cell, and its new tabless electrode design fixes that problem.insideevs.com
By all accounts of cut-outs we have seen on the 4680 packs, there is cooling both in the ribbon form (between cells) and on the end with the tabs. 2170 packs only use ribbon cooling on the sides.
Additionally, the chemistry of the 4680s is vastly different than the 2170s (dry battery electrode vs. wet electrode). I need to dig further, but this might also decrease heat production from the cells (and be why they are supposed to get more power than the same mass of 2170 cells - 6X power vs. same size as 5 x 2170 cells).
Chemistry is mostly the same, dry electrode is only the process for making electrodes which are both dry at the end (wet evaporates all the solvent).
Volumetric efficiency increased due to less can, center, and end space loss as a percentage of the whole. They will improve density via chemistry and such presented on Battery Day, but started conservative/ low risk.
A new video of 4680 production...
www.teslarati.com
Tesla shares mesmerizing 4680 battery cell assembly video
Tesla’s 4680 batteries are a huge part of the company’s future, with products such as the Cybertruck and the Tesla Semi utilizing the next-generation cell. Since they were unveiled on 2020’s Battery Day, however, few specifics about the 4680 cells have been shared by the electric vehicle maker...
www.teslarati.com
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'll do one better than this, I found the paper I read that laid out the math of why the tabless design generates far less heat (paper not from Tesla):
From the abstract:
"The new design is found to mitigate the ohmic losses experienced around the "jelly-roll" current collectors which are significant for the traditional tabbed case, thus leading to higher efficiency and capacity and reduced heat production."
Relevant line in the conclusions:
"When using the traditional end-tab design, the ohmic losses from the current collectors results in five times more energy being lost as waste heat, compared with the tabless case."
Bear in mind that is not TOTAL heat produced, but heat from losses for transfer through a tabbed electrode vs. a tabless one, but it makes a significant impact.
TL;DR - 4680 tabless cells, in theory, should produce less heat and therefore the pack should be cooler.
If the youtuber with a 4680 car REALLY wants to test this out, he should take the car and go track it and push the limits on the car, compared to a 2170 based car. The 4680, in theory, should push it's cooling system far less (i.e. less fan ramp-up). Too bad the track mode isn't enabled, because you can get a pretty good idea of battery temperature when you are running with track mode on.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Biggest surprise to me is this action prior to CPI tomorrow. I guess it could be impacted by tons of people closing out options positions ahead of that too.
Good inflation news tomorrow could ignite the rocket.
I was out of town last weekend when I got a notice that my Model Y had an update waiting ... I went ahead and installed the update and when I got home ... I was in the club!!! I was thrilled to see that I got the FSD Beta.
I've been using it now for a few days and while I'm pretty comfortable using the autopilot feature on the highway, I have to say that FSD on city streets is a completely different thing and is going to take me a while to get used to. The level of trust you need to have is very high and I'm not there yet .... I've had mixed results so far, as to be expected with a beta version, but I can say that this software will get exponentially better in the next 18-24 months and this should really excite shareholders.
I'll report back at some point with a more detailed post of how it's going but so far I'm impressed ... I don't think we are anywhere near "robotaxi" level yet but the writing is on the wall. The future is here.
Cheers to the longs.
I've been using it now for a few days and while I'm pretty comfortable using the autopilot feature on the highway, I have to say that FSD on city streets is a completely different thing and is going to take me a while to get used to. The level of trust you need to have is very high and I'm not there yet .... I've had mixed results so far, as to be expected with a beta version, but I can say that this software will get exponentially better in the next 18-24 months and this should really excite shareholders.
I'll report back at some point with a more detailed post of how it's going but so far I'm impressed ... I don't think we are anywhere near "robotaxi" level yet but the writing is on the wall. The future is here.
Cheers to the longs.
I know that was discussed as a possibility, but neither the pack cutaway at the CyberRodeo:
Nor the recent Munro glimpe:
seem to have any indication of that...
I'd be interested if the factory events you mention suggest otherwise.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Actually, see those U-shaped lines in the top portion of the pack cover, that would likely be integrated cooling channels to wick heat away from the top of the cells. Other manuf's use a mechanism like that as well, so it's no stretch that Tesla would employ it (in addition to the ribbons between cells). We won't know for certain until someone like Sandy Munroe gets his hands on one and starts tearing it apart.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The system does that today in 2 ways:
1) Like the wide-release ignores of HOLD THE WHEEL it'll lock you out for remainder of drive if you ignore warnings
2) If you get several lockouts total between releases (I think it's 3 or 5 lockouts, it has varied) you are booted from the Beta program
Item 2 will go away in wide release, as nobody who was sold FSD was ever told it'd be conditional in that way.
If you want to suggest it SHOULD be conditional in that way I think there's a fair argument there- but Tesla hasn't done that, and can't do it retroactively to existing customers-- they can only do it in the beta because that's not a specific promised/paid feature.
(Same with requiring data monitoring and a specific safety score that gets sent to Tesla)
Hmm, I don't see any real evidence those are channels, as opposed to just corrugations to strengthen the cover. Can't see a lower half to make a tube, no manifolds, etc... Additionally given that both positive and negative connections are on the cell top, there would seem to be complexity in making a thermal bond there.
So is end cooling something that you are surmising, or has it been explicitly shown/discussed at some sort of pack cutaway or presentation at an event?
It's been confirmed that this is not the case. I'm confident in saying that the only active cooling in the 4680 battery pack is provided by the counter-flow cooling ribbons that run along the sides of alternate rows of cells. This ribbon provides a large contact area with the side of the cell and uses conduction as it's main thermodynamic heat exchange to the cell and then convection to the fluid passing through the ribbon. Because the cell has a continuous metal casing, this casing provides a low resistance thermal conduction pathway from the top and bottom of the cell to the cooling ribbon on the side. So while the ribbon is only along one side, the cell casing allows heat to be dissipated from a much greater surface area of the cell.
The above was all confirmed by a Tesla Cell Engineer that Jordon Giesige of the Limiting Factor spoke to at the Giga Austin rodeo event. The video below is queued to the part that discusses the 4680 battery pack cooling.
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