This deep discussion into solar and storage feels like a topic that is better served discussing over the weekend (if at all).
To get us back to the matter at hand going into the last two hours of trading, I'm loving the over-performance on good volume (I suspect the two are very closely related). This has been a great short week of trading. Compare it to QQQ, which is trading flat on low volume. It sure feels like there is some accumulation happening.
I was pleasantly surprised to see the spike back >$750 an hour ago, as it made perfect sense to me that the MMs would do everything they could to cap the SP at $750. It will be very interesting to see how the last two hours of trading goes.
Happy weekend all!
Personally I have to disagree - I have wanted to hear the hive-mind's thoughts on the Tesla Energy side of things for a while. This was a good review. I have also been impatient to see them disrupt the energy market as thoroughly as they have the auto industry. I agree this has not happened yet. My takeaway from a lot of the good facts brought to light here (thank you all who brought up relevant history and current plans) us that, if the 4680 ramp is eventually successful in the cost-cutting and massive-scaling goals they set for it, then Tesla Energy will be set for significant market penetration if not outright disruption - disruption in particular when considering their stealth software Virtual Power Plant efforts.
How much of this comes to pass will depend on the rate of scale of the 4680's and some associated efforts. We on this group are impatient since we rehash these things every day, but I have not forgotten that the Battery Day presentation talked about a 5
year plan to "fully realize" all the possible gains from 4680 production. Years, not months, not days.
Some progress has already been shown, and the early 4680's are no longer vapor - Sandy Munroe is cutting into some right now. I expect even these early ones will help Tesla's automotive and Energy margins, and the ongoing improvements should both stack and scale: this is what they planned.
Patience, young Skywalkers.
Relatedly, I am becoming convinced that in 2024 the Model Y will be earth's best selling car of any type. The 4680's available then will be even cheaper and provide better range and use less energy in manufacturer that even those we have in mid 2022.
On the solar panel front, hard for me to see if they will ever penetrate that massive market a lot - I am wondering if anyone else thinks the biggest payoff from the Solar City buyout might be that Tesla gets their massive internal-use-only panel demand met at internal wholesale prices. Let us not forget the 2021 Impact Report showing those much-maligned panels have generated all the power Tesla and every Tesla ever charged has used. One day they'll be done covering their factories with panels and start shading all the Supercharger installations with panels (I hope anyway; mighty hot at those in the Texas summer).
Appreciate all the good discussion, even and perhaps especially the skeptical. Good weekend all.
jalopnik.com
insideevs.com
driveteslacanada.ca
