Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

No need to touch small-scale solar in Germany, they already have a robust install market that runs hyper-efficiently. Mission is already accomplished there.

So you are ceding the entire Powerwall market to Huawei, LG, etc in Germany, France, Spain, China .... as well ..... and losing the opportunity to build to truly global scale.

Plus if you saw the fat margins the solar guys & gals are making in these countries you'd realise that it cannot be hyper-efficient.

The USA is not the world.

 

[henchman24]

Do you think there's also pressure to keep all of QQQ under control? That might be leeching into our capping as well. Wouldn't want a full-blown tech reversal to kickoff.

Oh absolutely… this week sets the stage for the levels that can be reached when CPI drops weds morning. Bears don’t want to get above this level to have a shot at testing lows next week if cpi is hot

 

[2daMoon]

Wonderful...so they have a sales model that does not work, they did something 4 years ago and it didn't work. If you price Tesla panels they are more expensive. They can't scale if they can't sell. I mean I am sympathetic to the sales problem in solar, I really am. I have seen the same data you have re the costs of solar. But consider this. If Tesla can't solve a relatively simple market sales process...how can they solve a complex problem like designing an octovalve? etc. It reeks of lack of management attention and leadership.

You can't see the forest for the trees.

If there are already companies selling and installing solar for less than Tesla, then the Mission is being accomplished.

Tesla can be, and is, focused on the things that aren't being done fast enough, like batteries and cars.

There is a clear labor shortage ahead and the Bots will fill that void, and they need FSD to be most effective.

Storage is constrained by batteries, mentioned above as a priority over Tesla's solar business.

Can you really not see the bigger picture that dictates the choices being made?

Please stop cluttering up the forum with this stuff.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So you are ceding the entire Powerwall market to Huawei, LG, etc in Germany, France, Spain, China .... as well ..... and losing the opportunity to build to truly global scale.

Plus if you saw the fat margins the solar guys & gals are making in these countries you'd realise that it cannot be hyper-efficient.

The USA is not the world.

Tesla is not the energy world either. I am overjoyed to cede any portion of the renewables + storage market to anyone who deploys quickly and efficiently. I assume Elon is as well, he said as much in his Master Plan(s).

You're applying a scarcity/hoarding mindset to the transition. The goal isn't marketshare, it's pace of innovation and speed of transition. The $10T market cap will happen organically and faster than most believe possible. It's silly to worry about it as if this market were small and Tesla operated at the same level as everyone else.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You can't see the forest for the trees.

If there are already companies selling and installing solar for less than Tesla, then the Mission is being accomplished.

In fairness to @nativewolf, your post illustrates a good part of the problem. The market isn't even aware Tesla is a good 30-40% cheaper than the other nationwide installers, and 10-20% cheaper than most local installers. We want no sales.....but we also want some level of awareness.

He's got a point, there are major problems. They're just not problems you can reach out and solve like improving the drivetrain of an EV sedan or scaling a factory.

People see technology capable of solving problems sitting DIRECTLY ADJACENT to homeowners who desperately want the technology. It's super frustrating that we can't bridge that simple gap, but believe me there are reasons Elon can't just snap his fingers and make it all flow.

 

[petit_bateau]

Tesla is not the energy world either. I am overjoyed to cede any portion of the renewables + storage market to anyone who deploys quickly and efficiently. I assume Elon is as well, he said as much in his Master Plan(s).

You're applying a scarcity/hoarding mindset to the transition. The goal isn't marketshare, it's pace of innovation and speed of transition. The $10T market cap will happen organically and faster than most believe possible. It's silly to worry about it as if this market were small and Tesla operated at the same level as everyone else.

The point is that Tesla is underperforming in solar & storage, and is underperforming globally. That both means that the global energy transformation is proceeding more slowly than if Tesla were performing well in solar & storage, and it means that something is wrong within Tesla that is not getting fixed.

All the excuses being trotted out are lame, including "no chips" (so how come others are getting chips); "no batteries" (so how come others are getting batteries); "we make cars" (fine, but please walk & chew gum); "it's difficult in the USA" (so do stuff outside the USA).

 

[Tommy O]

@Gigapress has posted Drew's presentation at Stanford several times. If I was on the board of Tesla and saw that ...I'd be looking for a new manager.

The Stanford presentation where he successfully had the academics cheering for tesla and asking what they could do to help tesla as a company?

If you’re talking about his comments on the solar roof, drew simply said he doesn’t work on that side of the company but knows they had problems with installation due to roof complexity. Which tesla has previously discussed…

 

[Fred42]

My other neighbor that just now got a solar install with power walls from Tesla was told 'no, do it with somebody else later' when he asked to add a Tesla home charger to the project since he also has ordered a Model Y.

But of course doing this separately makes no sense, the end result is the powerwall and inverter related equipment is placed without the charger in mind and things would need to get moved.

Tesla doesn't install home chargers. It wouldn't be the best use of their time to plan and do these installations that any electrician can do. When my Tesla solar was installed, the supervisor asked me where I wanted the equipment placed, and that's where it went.

 

[dm28997]

I've had Powerwall on order as I want to have the synchronicity of my 3 Teslas, powerwalls and solar system which I want to expand. But Tesla doesn't service our area yet and is battery constrained and that is why they are building "Megafactories". They are doing awsome, much more than anyone else and forcing other legacy sloths to get into EVs and batteries. I have no criticism of Tesla or their energy division. Growth continues. For example:

Tesla Megapack demand evident in latest Giga Nevada photos

Tesla Megapack demand remains strong based on the latest photos of Giga Nevada.

www.teslarati.com

 

[henchman24]

Tesla makes money as an automaker… makes sense to put most of their resources to that when supplies are low elsewhere… when a surplus of batteries hits, storage will ramp. Solar… outside of solar roof, not sure Tesla will ever make huge inroads there… but such a low margin market, as an investor I simply don’t care if they never go huge into panels.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla makes money as an automaker… makes sense to put most of their resources to that when supplies are low elsewhere… when a surplus of batteries hits, storage will ramp. Solar… outside of solar roof, not sure Tesla will ever make huge inroads there… but such a low margin market, as an investor I simply don’t care if they never go huge into panels.

Besides, everyone knows that Tesla is an Auto company. /s

 

[mongo]

The point is that Tesla is underperforming in solar & storage, and is underperforming globally. That both means that the global energy transformation is proceeding more slowly than if Tesla were performing well in solar & storage, and it means that something is wrong within Tesla that is not getting fixed.

All the excuses being trotted out are lame, including "no chips" (so how come others are getting chips); "no batteries" (so how come others are getting batteries); "we make cars" (fine, but please walk & chew gum); "it's difficult in the USA" (so do stuff outside the USA).

The chips are going into cars (and Super/Mega chargers).
The cells/ batteries are going into cars.
Tesla is doing both (three with solar), but they can't build more products than they have parts for, it's a zero (supply constrained) sum game.
Pre C19, they were building as many products as they has cells for. Currently, they are building as many products as they have chips (or other parts) for. Soon they will be back to cell constrained but with a lot more cells.

 

[Gigapress]

Explosive Upcoming Megapack Production Growth in Context

Lathrop Megapack factory nominal annual capacity:

40 GWh​

Lathrop Megapack actual annual capacity if Tesla is understating like with Giga Shanghai:

???​

Total global grid storage deployments of entire industry in 2021:

~30 GWh​

​

Total global grid storage cumulatively deployed as of end of 2021:

~60 GWh​

Total USA grid storage deployments of entire industry in Q4 ‘21:

~5 GWh (20 GWh annualized)​

​

Obviously Tesla has not neglected to prepare for energy storage growth and as long as Lathrop scales production towards nominal capacity in the next two years, Tesla Megapack will gain a huge amount of market share and likely vault Tesla to first place in GWh deployed in 2023 especially in the North American market where output will probably be focused so as to minimize shipping expenses.

 

[WattsHappening]

This deep discussion into solar and storage feels like a topic that is better served discussing over the weekend (if at all).

To get us back to the matter at hand going into the last two hours of trading, I'm loving the over-performance on good volume (I suspect the two are very closely related). This has been a great short week of trading. Compare it to QQQ, which is trading flat on low volume. It sure feels like there is some accumulation happening.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the spike back >$750 an hour ago, as it made perfect sense to me that the MMs would do everything they could to cap the SP at $750. It will be very interesting to see how the last two hours of trading goes.

Happy weekend all!

 

[GOVA]

@Gigapress

Your posts do remind me of somebody else. Not sure, have to fact check or be a Karen.

 

[ZeApelido]

I am excite.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1545465102140428288

 

[Mengy]

I was pleasantly surprised to see the spike back >$750 an hour ago, as it made perfect sense to me that the MMs would do everything they could to cap the SP at $750. It will be very interesting to see how the last two hours of trading goes.

Yeah the stock wants to finish over $750 today, but will the MM's allow it? Going to be an interesting end to the week!

 

[wipster]

And the SP is inching back towards 760...

(Hope I didn't curse it)

 

[SN_8]

@Gigapress

Your posts do remind me of somebody else. Not sure, have to fact check or be a Karen.

Only one way to find out. @Gigapress please tell us your opinions on crypto, Tesla PR, and Elon's relationships. /s

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Gigapress is quite obviously a bot. Kidding!

Not kidding