damonbrodie
Member
If recent history is our guide then I'd say around $740 or so... I'm only half kidding.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
That is what we have seen, but the slide deck seems to contradict that:
Berlin has the same robot count in the body shop as Austin. I don't think they could do that without a front casting.
Updated base case 2022 - 2025. 2025 deliveries will be very hard to predict before we know when the new factories are announced and how many there will be. I guess it's most likely that there will be two new ones announced before the end of the year, but three would be awesome.
2023 - Cybertruck introduced in low volumes, but doesn't impact overall profits at any meaningful levels. CT ramp difficulties might occur. Overall ASP increases as S/X deliveries increases and Model Y sales increases faster than M3 sales. A slight decrease in M3/MY sales prices in H2 2023 is accounted for.
2024 - M3/MY price falls a bit further, but overall ASP still increases due to CT, Roadster, semi, S/X deliveries adding 3000-4000 USD to the overall ASP. Also MY sales increases faster than M3. Compact car might start deliveries at low scale in H2 2024 (being built in Shanghai and potentially new factories)
2025 - M3/MY might near peak deliveries at 1M M3 and 3M MY. Overall ASP falls as compact car starts scaling, M3/MY price falls further and CT starts delivering more dual motor variant. If Robotaxi network has opened in some states at this point it shouldn't contribute too much to revenue yet, but would add a ton to PE as earnings expectations shoot up for upcoming years (not added for this valuation).
2024 and 2025 aside - 2023 is going to be lit!
View attachment 830941
Dang, your numbers look extremely similar to mine, except I have gross margins scaling slower than you, and I also have PE falling faster due to market sentiments (purely a conservative hedge on my part). Thus my predicted share prices are a bit lower than yours but comparable, and if I adjust my GM's and PE's then we match up within 10% of each other.
No matter which way I do the math, the future certainly looks very bright for TSLA holders.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Did you sleep in late this morning?
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
TSLA up in the Pre Market,
My favorite stock is a painted target,
FSD is almost ready to go,
Cybertruck going to steal the show!
I didn’t say stop. Keep on.
jhm
Well-Known Member
It seems that Models S/X are now an extremely inefficient use of space in Fremont. Seems a redesign to bring efficiency closer to that of the Model Y could free substantially increase the total capacity of Fremont.
@2daMoon: Did you sleep in late this morning?
Naah - I think he'd only now remembered it was he who bought all those 22 July 800 calls a few days ago.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Or, just keep the line running as is in Freemont and build a more efficient production line for a modern version of those cars to be produced in Texas. I think they have a little more acreage to expand into there than in Fremont.
We don't want another gap in S/X production and all the FUD that comes with it.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
It is nice to have an easy-to-reference chart to track their stupidity more accurately.
I really, really, hope that GJ and Toilet Boy have put their money where their mouth is and gone all-in on TSLQ.
On a serious note, I have found the most efficient way to go through the Earnings Discussion is to go to Rob M's channel, put it on mute and on 2X speed, and read his typewritten notes as he transcribes the call.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I don't suppose anyone can help me with the 2022 Q1 and Q2 quarterly production data split between 3 and Y, and split for Shanghai and Fremont ?
I hear ya, but that is robots per unit of capacity. If the Berlin front end is simplified and only one body line cell is needed, then it could align. Especially, if Austin has equipment for both packs and Berlin only has 2170 type installed.
Berlin flythough shows stamped fronts (though it's hard to catch)
More poetry please. I need cheaper entry prices after taking some profits ..TSLA up in the Pre Market,
My favorite stock is a painted target,
FSD is almost ready to go,
Cybertruck going to steal the show!
Service-post:
At IBKR they were finally able to locate shares for shorting.
Currently 13k shares available to short for 10% Interest ..
I voted for it and by my math that makes it a sure thingIn case anyone has forgotten.......Stock split 3:1 to be voted for and approved next month
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Are we experiencing the @StarFoxisDown! "pop 10%, then walk it down to 799 Friday"?
Looks like it. Huge volume tho, so that's nice. Any walk down is going to be expensive. And dangerous heading into the split and a potential bump to investment grade rating.
Looks like it. Huge volume tho, so that's nice. Any walk down is going to be expensive. And dangerous heading into the split and a potential bump to investment grade rating.
Is now the time i sacrifice myself for you guys and sell all my remaining margin to ensure Tesla will keep going up the next couple of days/weeks 
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
