Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

Gruber Motors do disconnect single cells as a kind of repair for original Roadster packs and now Model S packs.

That isn't a real repair. It lasts less than a year until the pack fails again. (It might last longer in the Roadsters than it does for the Model S.)

But what do you expect from the company that has single handedly destroyed more EVs than anyone other then GM.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

old style packs could be sold for storage use. They have modules and if only one cell is bad you can reuse all the other modules but that one for stationary storage.

Selling your old pack that way can offset the cost of a new pack if you are getting a newer used pack.

If you are buying a new pack form Tesla they take the old pack as part of the price for the new one (they don't tell people what the value of the old pack is, they just say Old pack + X$ in fine print and say X$ in the big print).

Interesting. Do they have a list of battery prices anywhere. What would it cost for say a 9 year old Tesla S out of warranty?

 

[willow_hiller]

Bill text: https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/inflation_reduction_act_of_2022.pdf

Summary lifted from Reddit:

Section 13401 removes the cap on EV credits and makes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles eligible. EV credit is now limited income earners up to $150k (individual), $225k (head of household), or $300k (joint file). MSRP caps now instituted: trucks, SUVs, and vans are now eligible up to $80k. All other vehicles cut off at $55k.

Credit is now refundable and can be claimed by the dealer to be applied as an incentive at point of sale.

Section 13402 adds a tax credit for USED EVs as well.

 

[thesmokingman]

That 55K cap bugs me, it's too low for sedans even on the previous BBB versions, argh.

 

[samppa]

For old 2012-early 2016 Model S packs it is happening more often now. For newer packs it doesn't seem to be as bad.

And no, the only repair options are for the electronics/contactors inside the pack. Nothing can be done at the cell/module level. There are two third party shops that say they can "snip bad cells" or replace modules, but that doesn't last long before the pack fails again. There are two reputable third party shops that say the only way to repair a car with a bad cell is to replace the entire pack. (Which they can normally do cheaper than Tesla, though Tesla offers a better warranty than these shops.)

Incorrect. There are issues other than bad cells at the module level, such as failed sense wire attachments or bmb boards (quite usual for 2013-14 packs), that are actually quite simple to repair. Opening up the pack takes a few hours of manual labor.

Interesting. Do they have a list of battery prices anywhere. What would it cost for say a 9 year old Tesla S out of warranty?

Current quote from Tesla in Europe is 13k€ for a refurbished pack replacement, comes with 4 year warranty.

 

[Fred42]

Bill text: https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/inflation_reduction_act_of_2022.pdf

Summary lifted from Reddit:

What I want to know is whether PHEV's and HEV's count as EV's. This would be counter-productive to the mission, and I very much hope not.

 

[larmor]

Not a bad move - could be intro of Apple getting the Audi eTron EV tech - (Lambo is owned by Audi group).

Still a looong way to production, maybe Apple is betting on battery tech from CATL, LG and Samsung coming together sometime in ... 2025 - taking a cue also from Tesla's Giga factories and IDRA casting might be a viable alternative to Tesla, esp if they also come to their senses and get a deal with Tesla to license their FSD suite.

Yes the PowerPoint presentation will be more compelling with Lamborghini in the words…

 

[henchman24]

That 55K cap bugs me, it's too low for sedans even on the previous BBB versions, argh.

Unpopular probably and won’t help the share price… but I’m not a big fan of any of the credits. There will surely be loopholes that get exploited like the plug in hybrid loophole for the full credit where the money is getting wasted.

 

[MP3Mike]

Incorrect. There are issues other than bad cells at the module level, such as failed sense wire attachments or bmb boards (quite usual for 2013-14 packs), that are actually quite simple to repair. Opening up the pack takes a few hours of manual labor.

I consider those repairs part of the electronics.

 

[insaneoctane]

At this point, while the EV credits might help some manufacturers, it's really going to be messy for consumers IMO... With the high demand for all EVs, I don't see any manufacturers passing any of the new subsidies on to the consumer. So, already inflated auto prices are likely to jump up. Maybe this helps demand, but more likely just further complicates the supply problem.

 

[AudubonB]

First one who learns if those $55K and $80K (etc.) caps ARE or ARE NOT applicable for the total cost of a vehicle, or if, e.g., a $90K SUV gets $80K worth of credit, gets a...gets a....gets a x'jismu.

 

[AudubonB]

This would be so terrible if only.....

....Naah. Boy, this is FUN!

 

[printf42]

So structural packs would all go straight to the recycler.

I did speculate in the engineering thread that 4680 cells might be self-fusing, Perhaps there is some way a bad cell in a structural pack can be detected and disconnected without needing to open up the pack. I admit the odds of that being true are very low.

I imagine most common failure cases would be capacity degradation, worst cases would be one of the four groups went offline.

In these cases they would go to stationary storage, and only go to recycling after many many more years of service.

 

[Fred42]

First one who learns if those $55K and $80k (etc.) caps ARE or ARE NOT applicable for the total cost of a vehicle, or if, e.g., a $90K SUV gets $80K worth of credit, gets a...gets a....gets a x'jismu.

Also is it the bottom line MSRP with options and delivery that counts, or is it the MSRP for that model without the extras? Also do the caps get an annual adjustment for inflation?

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 833531

Makes sense...Lamborghini is the leader in EV's..oh wait...that was GM. My bad!

I found this lacking in details but a Google search turned up this article in an obscure paywalled blog, I subscribed so I could cut/paste it here:

Aarron's Apple Orchard
A blog for everything Apple
July 27, 2022

Apple Ecosystem Grows Wheels

People familiar with Apple know what sets it apart from the crowded field is its strong ecosystem of devices, software, accessories and media licensing. And of course, the industry leading margins that ecosystem enables. I mean, who ever heard of paying $39 bucks for a phone cord before Apple, right? Well, according to inside Apple sources familiar with the matter, that ecosystem is preparing to get bigger, much bigger. The Apple Car, not the one that has been confirmed by informed sources 17 times already, but a new, faster Apple car is coming, sources familiar with the matter told us today.

As many of you have probably heard by now, Luigi Taraborrelli, a 20-year veteran of the Italian car company Lamborghini, has been hired by Apple to help it develop the new, faster, Apple car. But what has not been reported by the lamestream media is Taraborrelli's job offer was contingent upon the successful negotiation of bringing the Lamborghini name into the Apple ecosystem. Sources familiar with the matter have told us that it became apparent during negotiations that Lamborghini wanted to keep the rights to their name but a royalty bearing compromise agreement was struck to let Apple use the "orghini" portion of their name (without any capital letters) in exchange for a royalty of 3.5% of sales of any Apple products using "orghini" in the branding. Lamborghini will retain full rights to their unabbreviated name.

The same sources familiar with the matter have said the new, faster, Apple car will be sold under the premium sounding Applorghini brand name and will be capable of achieving 0-60 mph in 1.8 seconds, that is quicker than the Tesla Model S Plaid. They said Apple believes this innovative branding will increase the strength of the Apple ecosystem due to the synergy between the storied Apple and Lamborghini brand names. For example, a pricing focus group learned that an AppleCar charging connector could retail for a maximum of $995 if it is white. However, the focus group discovered consumers would happily pay $1495 for the same white charging connector if it carried the prestigious sounding "Applorghini" branding. If this holds true over all Applorghini parts and accessories it could more than double Apple's typical profit margins and that is after paying the 3.5% royalty to Lamborghini.

The same inside sources told us the following additional details: The Applorghini car will not only be fast, but it will also have premium materials and the most beautifully rounded corners you can imagine. Apple will leverage its extensive retail outlet locations to offer premium curbside fast charging for customers on the go while providing a welcome boost to traffic in its retail outlets and increasing the functionality of the proprietary Applorghini charge port beyond customers' homes and driveways. The car will integrate seamlessly with an iPhone or even an Android, but there may be limited functionality with Android. Apple said this will drive more people to adopt iPhones. Connectivity of the car will be by monthly subscription conveniently bundled with other Apple subscriptions.

Apple has not decided whether they will manufacture the car at their Cupertino facilities to give idle workers there something to do or if they will hire a contract manufacturer like Foxcon because they can cross that bridge when the time comes. Whatever they choose, it will have a high quality fit and finish (including Gorilla Glass windscreen) in keeping with the premium Applorghini name.

/S

 

[willow_hiller]

What I want to know is whether PHEV's and HEV's count as EV's. This would be counter-productive to the mission, and I very much hope not.

My reading is that they unfortunately count now. They're striking every mention of "plug-in vehicle" and replacing it with "new clean vehicle." And I think they're striking the kWh requirement and replacing it with a domestic content requirement. $3,750 for at least 50% critical mineral content mined or recycled in the US, and $3,750 for at least 50% of the battery pack assembly done in the US. And it ramps up until the minerals are 80% domestic by 2026, and assembly is 100% domestic by 2028.

First one who learns if those $55K and $80k (etc.) caps ARE or ARE NOT applicable for the total cost of a vehicle, or if, e.g., a $90K SUV gets $80K worth of credit, gets a...gets a....gets a x'jismu.

"IN GENERAL.—No credit shall be allowed under subsection (a) for a vehicle with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price in excess
of the applicable limitation."

 

[Thekiwi]

So is Model Y technically a SUV? What is the official definition of an SUV? Is there one? Incredibly strange that a slight difference in cabin space will enable a $25k increase in price ceiling for the EV subsidy (Comparing the model 3 vs model y).

Hopefully this doesn’t freeze sales in the US in the interim Period until subsidy is active for Tesla (once the bill is actually passed) - good thing there is a big order book to work through, and plenty of international markets they can ship to if needed.

 

[thesmokingman]

I found this lacking in details but a Google search turned up this article in an obscure paywalled blog, I subscribed so I could cut/paste it here:

the most beautifully rounded corners you can imagine

/S

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Incorrect. There are issues other than bad cells at the module level, such as failed sense wire attachments or bmb boards (quite usual for 2013-14 packs), that are actually quite simple to repair. Opening up the pack takes a few hours of manual labor.


Current quote from Tesla in Europe is 13k€ for a refurbished pack replacement, comes with 4 year warranty.

Thankyou. Informative

 

[willow_hiller]

So is Model Y technically a SUV? What is the official definition of an SUV? Is there one?

No real definition. Just that they'll follow EPA classifications:

‘‘(C) REGULATIONS AND GUIDANCE.—For purposes of this paragraph, the Secretary shall prescribe such regulations or other guidance as the Secretary determines necessary or appropriate for determining vehicle classifications using criteria similar to that employed by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the Energy to determine size and class of vehicles.’’.