Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Cool 4 minutes and 30 seconds of SpaceX internet video/update in Ukraine

 

[MartinAustin]

Here’s the Bloomberg article about the EV tax credit.

Senate Deal Includes EV Tax Credits Sought by Tesla, Toyota

That is already a bad headline... as far as I can remember, Elon has said he prefers NO tax subsidies for any vehicles of any type. It follows that Tesla is not "seeking" an EV tax credit, per se

 

[juanmedina]

It is going to make things awkward if the Model Y qualifies based on an Austin/Sparks pack and an MSRP under $80k, where the AWD Model 3 gets nothing and the RWD Model 3 might only qualify for a half-credit because of the LFP cells.

And Lucid will lose their incentive on the Air

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This is going to make Q4 difficult. Not that Tesla cannot setup incentives for people to take delivery in Q4, but if they raise prices again it is going to look bad. (Unless they do it tonight or something). But Tesla does nothing, it is a $7500 incentive for people to delay delivery.

Tesla will continue to enforce the “if you decline delivery more than once, your order is canceled and you pay the current price instead of your lock in lower price

 

[keydiver]

This is going to make Q4 difficult. Not that Tesla cannot setup incentives for people to take delivery in Q4, but if they raise prices again it is going to look bad. (Unless they do it tonight or something). But Tesla does nothing, it is a $7500 incentive for people to delay delivery.

I doubt it will be noticeable. I had the same worry last year, when we thought there would be a bill to start the incentives January 01, 2022, but I think that for every Tesla that someone refused there was another person waiting in line to take it ASAP. And, there are always those who don't qualify for the rebate, for one reason or another.

 

[Accident]

And Lucid will lose their incentive on the Air

The Ford mach-e, Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5 are classified as station wagons according to the EPA, so their top trims won’t get the rebate. The BMW i4 doesn’t qualify because of $900 over the sedan price limit.

I expect some manufacturers will lobby for changes to the bill.

 

[Dutchie]

Man, I wish that instead of these ev credits they would focus on removing fossil fuel subsidies..

These credits are only an headache for Tesla. Tesla is production constrained and will be for the foreseeable future. The credit will grow demand even more. What is Tesla going to do? Increase prices even more to slow demand? That will hurt the perception of Tesla. Also, the credits will only bring fuel to the fire for TSLAQ.

the only positive might be that share price will increase slightly for a short time.

 

[henchman24]

Tesla will continue to enforce the “if you decline delivery more than once, your order is canceled and you pay the current price instead of your lock in lower price

Yeah and they are likely to include another price increase soon anyway. My guess is after this passes we see an increase on the Performance Y to ~73k and before the year to ~75k. With that though, I’d guess the 3LR will get a cut right to the limit (that is likely to be lobbied up so it at not matter).

 

[dhanson865]

It’s from Joe Manchin who has the Toyota plant in West Virginia so it’s going to favor hybrids…and maybe not even plug-in hybrids?

I also want to say these income limits almost seem specifically designed to exclude Tesla. Upper-middle class people pollute, too.

Upper-middle-class households are defined here as those earning between $75,301 and $127,300 a year, according to the Fed.

So us Upper Middle Class won't be capped buying our Teslas.

 

[dhanson865]

Cool 4 minutes and 30 seconds of SpaceX internet video/update in Ukraine

That's a horribly misleading video made by someone that either doesn't understand technology or is willing to intentionally mislead.

Starlink is cool but man the technical BS in that video is gobsmacking.

 

[Pezpunk]

Upper-middle-class households are defined here as those earning between $75,301 and $127,300 a year, according to the Fed.

So us Upper Middle Class won't be capped buying our Teslas.

i guess i'm out of touch but i can't tell if that seems like a lot of money or not to you. Here in Northern Virginia you'd have a real hard time making ends meet as a family in a modest suburban home, unless both spouses were each making around $80k.

 

[dhanson865]

i guess i'm out of touch but i can't tell if that seems like a lot of money or not to you. Here in Northern Virginia you'd have a real hard time making ends meet as a family in a modest suburban home, unless both spouses were each making around $80k.

I don't consider it a "lot of money" as in it doesn't wow me. But doing retirement math I figured I could scrape by with $30,000-$40,000 a year if I had to and my health held up.

Making $100,000 a year here would let me pump the majority into TSLA each year. Making $125,000 wouldn't be much different, just more chairs.

Fwiw I've never come in over $99,999 yet. Capital gains might push me over temporarily if I decide to sell something to grab a Tesla in the near future (the tax credit could pull me into the buyer mentality).

 

[MartinAustin]

That bill seems like a mess. It appears to be engineered to send U.S. taxpayer money directly to dealerships (i.e. not to Tesla) and keep Canadians and Mexicans employed.

Nevertheless Tesla will still have a strong Q4. People will take the car rather than wait until 2023. Tesla will find ways to deliver cars in 2022 even if the buyers don't get a credit. There will be much order juggling as we approach EOY22.

What a pain in the ass - that Tesla shouldn't have to deal with. I agree with the folks here who suggest that the better way to deal with climate change is to tax the purchase of ICE vehicles, tax the purchase of fossil fuel extraction, manufacturing, delivery and burning, implement stricter vehicle testing and taxing (to eliminate hopped-up ICE vehicles that pollute) and provide NO support to BEV economy - the demand will take care of itself. But with corrupt politicians getting bought by fossil-fuel profits all over the world, this will be difficult. Sorry, OT

 

[MartinAustin]

Oh - the bill appears to target Tesla's current prices. Not the prices they were at 18 months ago. As soon as 3/Y prices start to fall back to the levels they were first at, a lot more Model 3s and Model Ys are gonna get ordered, and the competitors will really feel some price pressure.

 

[MikeC]

Upper-middle-class households are defined here as those earning between $75,301 and $127,300 a year, according to the Fed.

So us Upper Middle Class won't be capped buying our Teslas.

There may be some geographic difference in our perspectives but I would not consider a couple making $64k each “upper class”. The Fed may be behind the curve on that one, too.

Obviously, lots of variables and subjectivity to the label, but my point is that including means testing in the law unnecessarily excludes a segment of the population from being incentivized to go EV.

 

[ZeApelido]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552501701994758145

 

[dhanson865]

There may be some geographic difference in our perspectives but I would not consider a couple making $64k each “upper class”. The Fed may be behind the curve on that one, too.

Obviously, lots of variables and subjectivity to the label, but my point is that including means testing in the law unnecessarily excludes a segment of the population from being incentivized to go EV.

It's all about the fly over country. There are about 30 or so states where a couple making $90,000 (with no kids) is doing well.

There are a dozen or so states where that same income would be borderline homeless.

If you live in one of the latter states you'd understandably have a different attitude about someone making a 5 figure income.

The biggest most expensive cities will need to do something on top of the federal plan. No way to means test the flyover states with LA, NY, Chicago and such ruining the curve.

edit: from betastarships link

The ten states with the lowest average incomes (2020 dollars) are:

1. Mississippi - $41,776
2. West Virginia - $44,947
3. Kentucky - $45,966
4. New Mexico - $46,325
5. Alabama - $46,957
6. Arkansas - $47,274
7. South Carolina - $47,458
8. Idaho - $48,591
9. Oklahoma - $49,078
10. Arizona - $49,823

so one person making double the average or two people making average each still stays below $100,000 a year (back in 2020). Having a second income with no kids (Double Income No Kids aka DINKs) is a recipe for having spare income for sure.

With inflation upper middle class will creep up a bit for 2022.

Also you originally said Upper Middle Class not Upper Class. Upper Middle Class is where I'm at. Upper Class is where you are at. A difference for sure.

The table below is based on Pew reasearch and is in 2021 dollars, needs an adjustment for recent inflation still.

 

[betstarship]

It's all about the fly over country. There are about 30 or so states where a couple making $90,000 (with no kids) is doing well.

There are a dozen or so states where that same income would be borderline homeless.

If you live in one of the latter states you'd understandably have a different attitude about someone making a 5 figure income.

The biggest most expensive cities will need to do something on top of the federal plan. No way to means test the flyover states with LA, NY, Chicago and such ruining the curve (like grading on a curve).

If this helps

Average Income by State 2024

 

[Ogre]

A few random thoughts on the uncentives.

Lots of weird carve outs to make big auto happy. Hybrids get incentives still. Mexican production qualifies (but not Chinese or European?)

Sounds like another weird year end mess for Tesla where a few people are likely to try and punt their purchases until January 1st.

Most Rivian’s and Lucids will be excluded, but its likely they can still file under the old incentive until they hit 200k units.

Unless Tesla really increases prices Cybertruck should be golden. This will make Cybertruck incredibly competitive with ICE trucks. It was already going to be close due to cost of operation, but after this it’ll be a slam dunk.

 

[Ogre]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552481580286984192

More language favoring Mexican production/ NAFTA.

Seems like the big losers here are the EU, Japan, and China… but I think the Chinese are putting some production in Mexico too.