Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

For me, the "mission" question is "does each battery put in a hybrid reduce atmospheric GHG's as much as an equivalent amount of battery put in an EV RIGHT NOW?" I actually think that answer is a little tougher to come up with, particularly given that globally, the EV manufacturers cannot make enough EV's to meet demand. Does taking a small amount of battery materials and putting them into a 53 mpg Prius (my current Gas Guzzler when I'm not driving the Model Y) knock out more GHG's than the ~1/50th of an EV battery you could make with it? Depends on what the consumer would have bought otherwise - this is not simple since, again, no one (not even the 800-lb gorilla in the room, Tesla) has the factories to meet demand right now.
If some percentage of those battery materials end up in Priuses (straight hybrid for this discussion, not PHEV - added complexity to calculate), and those 53 mpg Priuses (which Toyota can make en masse) displace 15 mpg Toyota Tundras (yes this does occasionally happen), are we better off overall in the next 20 years than if those battery materials were sitting idle while Tesla builds more factories (remember, Elon says they are not cell constrained)? Particularly since those Prius batteries at end-of-life can still be downcycled to energy storage, or recycled into EV batteries once we have enough EV manufacturing worldwide?
Or does the absolutist stance that considers none of these things but just says "no more ICE build ever" hold?
I do not think I know the answer, but I do not think it is simple. But I agree that, in all these scenarios Tesla is still in the hedgehog catbird seat.

These are valid points to consider, and in my view there are a few more to add.

There is no shortage of battery materials, lithium, iron, nickel, silicon, manganese, etc. are plentiful. The shortage is in the ability to mine and process these in adequate volume to meet increasing demand. My view of this is that of a classic supply/demand scenario that will sort itself out simply because there is profit to be made.

The next thing to add is the lifespan of a car. A pure BEV will cost less to maintain and will have a longer life than will a Frankenstein's monster PHEV that provides a limited version of the benefits of a pure EV while toting along all the additional costs across it's reduced lifetime that comes with the parts that are still but a traditional ICE vehicle beneath the sheet metal, masquerading as a Green machine.

In both cases the most significant variable to consider is time. How does any GHG advantage of a PHEV in the moment of purchase weigh out over time, after considering shorter lifespan, higher maintenance costs, and reduced efficiency when compared to a BEV?

It seems to me that the time factor is the part of the equation which will doom PHEV, once the information permeates the semi-consciousness of the buying public.

 

[Electroman]

Speaking of ford. F150 Lightning is a no-go, as far as towing is concerned. Cybertruck I believe will be a solid go. Tow No! The Ford F-150 Lightning Struggled in Our Towing Test

Well.. lets not get ahead of ourselves. The main complaint is the range for towing a large Airstream which we all know is not very aerodynamic. The fact that the range cuts by 60% is not a surprise at all. CT will have the exact same problem.

When CT is unveiled and when the first independent test is done, be prepared to be disappointed.

 

[2daMoon]

Waiting for the next headline:

TSLA stock price expected to suddenly drop 69% sometime this year!

FTFY

 

[StealthP3D]

We are seeing a last ditch effort right now I think. Mostly pushing the virtue signaling "I won't buy a Tesla because muh feelings" cards.

Death throes can continue for a surprisingly long time. As long as legacy manufacturer's still think they have a chance to get back in the game, they will continue to try to slow Tesla down, anyway they think they can. And the attacks funded by big oil will last even longer. If they can delay the transition by one day, it's worth billions of dollars to them. The attacks initiated by auto dealerships are no different. Attacks on renewable energy will continue too.

When people have lost their income, there is a tendency to become bitter. That bitterness looks for a something to lash out at and it doesn't matter if that lashing out will bring their money back to them, they will lash out because they know nothing else. That is why TSLA shorts who took painful, life-changing financial losses continued doing what they were doing, long after they had any skin in the game.

Change is a bursting forth of new, better ways to accomplish the same things. Those on the right side of change will enjoy the benefits and feel refreshed and rejuvenated while those who resist change, for whatever reason, those on the wrong side of change, will feel bitterness and resentment. The lesson they need to take to heart is an important one. I'm not a religious person, but religion has condensed centuries of pain and suffering into wisdom we can benefit from. One of my favorites:

Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

 

[MadScientist23]

Yes, the hope is that they use it for economy. They get used to plugging in and decide they are better off going fully electric for their next car.

At least that's my hope. I'm trying to be optimistic about the tax credit. It's a bad idea that could still work out.

I will say that we are a prime example of that. We've had our PHEV Pacifica for about 4 years now. It's gotten to where my wife prides herself on how far she can stretch between putting gas in it. We live out in the country and her commute to work is about 30 miles. The van is supposed to get 33 miles electric only. We have put in L2 charging in the garage in both houses we've been in when having that van and she can usually go 1-1.5 months without fueling it. Granted we have 5 kids too so running kids around takes a toll sometimes on the gas tank. It was a great transition vehicle for us and now I've gladly had my Model S for coming up on 6 months and we use that as much as possible to run kids around. For the van it does surprisingly well being as heavy as it is (right at 5k lbs) and even when doing a longer trip it gets better fuel economy than the equivalent ICE only version due to the way they designed it. I'm not saying it's the right choice now but it's a 7 passenger option that didn't break the bank at the time (cost was exactly the same as the ICE version when you took the $7500 credit that was available). PHEV can make a bridge in the time of this transition but long term they need to go away. And by the way ours does charge the batteries anytime the ICE engine is on and after a bit the ICE engine shuts down for a mile or so and we're pure electric again.

 

[2daMoon]

Well.. lets not get ahead of ourselves. The main complaint is the range for towing a large Airstream which is very not-aerodynamic. The fact that the range cuts by 60% is not a surprise at all. CT will have the exact same problem.

When CT is unveiled and when the first independent test is done, be prepared to be disappointed.

... until paired with the Airstream trailer that includes batteries and powered wheels designed to complement use with an EV tow vehicle.

​

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We’ll this certainly turned out to be a lame duck day. Volume practically disappeared when it hit the 19 million shares traded point. Been walked down so easily since

 

[thesmokingman]

We’ll this certainly turned out to be a lame duck day. Volume practically disappeared when it hit the 19 million shares traded point. Been walked down so easily since

Are you getting annoyed yet?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Are you getting annoyed yet?

I was only mildly amused when TSLA was up 40X the Nasdaq earlier this morning….so what do you think?

I expect a lot of swings in the stock price this week. Practically every day is going to be head fake in one way or the other

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Latest FUD in the attempt to hold down $TSLA:

https://ww.benzinga.com/news/22/08/...billionaires-list-could-be-short-lived-and-mo

View attachment 835340

"Majority believe' .....

We'll then by all means please post a link to the article!

Why do we do this? Just say there's FUD and paste the headline text. We don't need to do their job for them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Speaking of ford. F150 Lightning is a no-go, as far as towing is concerned. Cybertruck I believe will be a solid go. Tow No! The Ford F-150 Lightning Struggled in Our Towing Test

Did you catch this fact? Just 4 Gallons equivalent battery capacity! This is not a truck, it is a Home Depot utility vehicle for local construction folks at best.

"With the largest available battery pack, a fully charged 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning electric truck has less energy onboard than a regular F-150 with four gallons of gas in its tank."

If you think that's strange, the PHEV battery part holds the equivalent energy of about 4 tablespoons of gas (maybe it was 4 teaspoons).

Spoiler: Gas?

I used to pour that much into my old buick carb just to get it started after the float dried up. It would run for about 5 sec until the lines were finally primed. (It had a 401 nailhead engine, I knew them well along with the Dynaflow trany... what a useless skill. Here's a fun fact. It took about 35 yrs to figure out that you don't fill the radiator all the way to the top. I "overheated" a million times, and there was really no problem, ever. This was pure tribal knowledge, and written nowhere and I read all the factory manuals on that vehicle top to bottom. When I sold it back to the original owner, his mechanic knew right away about this little known fact. You have no idea how many radiators/caps, thermostats, head gaskets... I'm still mad a GM for this omission of fact.)

 

[2daMoon]

Are you getting annoyed yet?

@StarFoxisDown! is casting his spell. Stand by...

 

[StealthP3D]

Well.. lets not get ahead of ourselves. The main complaint is the range for towing a large Airstream which is very not-aerodynamic. The fact that the range cuts by 60% is not a surprise at all. CT will have the exact same problem.

When CT is unveiled and when the first independent test is done, be prepared to be disappointed.

I'm not going to be disappointed because towing makes up far less than one percent of all light vehicle miles. Towing large, heavy loads is brought to the forefront by anti-EV forces because it's a convenient point of attack. Anyone who thinks towing is an insurmountable challenge for battery electric vehicles will be wrong. They will receive their first early clues when the Tesla Semi hits the streets shortly and is seen pulling 80K lb. loads over mountain ranges. Because regen. It's all about air resistance and rolling resistance, two things that can be tamed when one understands how to solve problems effectively rather than acting like idiots, throwing their hands in the air and saying, "It's impossible".

Towing, even with ICE, is resource intensive. The less heavy towing we need, the better. Recent high fuel prices have put a noticeable dent in recreational towing as people learn just how stupid it is to bring a large home with them everywhere they go simply because gas was cheap.

 

[henchman24]

Just a FYI here... a high volume jump in the first hour of a day after options expiration is consistent with a gamma squeeze. And there is usually a pause over the rest of the day and the following day before pressure starts applying again. If we are in the midst of a squeeze like that, this is normal volume and pricing action. Things would likely resume sometime in the middle of Wednesday.

 

[Electroman]

Speaking of Ford..

Family Stunned After Learning That Used Electric Ford Focus' Batteries Cost More Than The Car Itself | Carscoops

Avery Siwinski got her second-hand Ford Focus Electric for $11,000; six months later, she was looking at a $14,000 battery replacement

www.carscoops.com

.. and then they later learnt Ford does not even make those batteries anymore, and so it can't even be repaired. The dealer offered $500

 

[Thumper]

When people have lost their income, there is a tendency to become bitter. That bitterness looks for a something to lash out at and it doesn't matter if that lashing out will bring their money back to them, they will lash out because they know nothing else.

I have been thinking along the same lines in the context of Autonoumous Tesla semis. They are going to put a lot of drivers out of work. Truck driving is an enormous employment category in the US. There will be a lot of bitterness and blame for the disruption in the trucking industry. Don't be surprised.

 

[MP3Mike]

Did you catch this fact? Just 4 Gallons equivalent battery capacity! This is not a truck, it is a Home Depot utility vehicle for local construction folks at best.

"With the largest available battery pack, a fully charged 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning electric truck has less energy onboard than a regular F-150 with four gallons of gas in its tank."

It is just more FUD against all EVs. (For example, the Model S&X only carry the energy equivalent of 2.7 gallons of gas.)

What they should have done is said how many gallons of gas it would take to tow the same trailer the same distance. Which The Fast Lane Truck did in this video:

As much as I don't like everything they do, I think they did a good job in this test.

 

[willow_hiller]

Say Questions are open for the Annual Meeting: Say

 

[M|S|M MYP]

We'll then by all means please post a link to the article!

Why do we do this? Just say there's FUD and paste the headline text. We don't need to do their job for them.

You have a choice if you want to 'click' on the link or ignore it

I like when FUD level is extreme....majority of the time means $TSLA is poised for a major upswing.

 

[MABMAB]

Just a FYI here... a high volume jump in the first hour of a day after options expiration is consistent with a gamma squeeze. And there is usually a pause over the rest of the day and the following day before pressure starts applying again. If we are in the midst of a squeeze like that, this is normal volume and pricing action. Things would likely resume sometime in the middle of Wednesday.

Proof is where?

I say high volume in first hour of day, after a w/e is sign of retail being manipulated. No proof, just experience. Retail sat at home, saw the news, scanned charts for five minutes, focused on the past. They see it is safe, place orders, orders get to be known, pre market draws them in more, open at or near the high, then the orders get exhausted and stock can contract.

Gamma squeeze I find hard to understand, but not deep into options. It seems to get thrown about after the fact, and at peak mention, rug gets pulled.