Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

He is hacking the system IMO like our best Tesla bear GJ. Finding shortcuts and cherry picking edge data to circumvent it's greater value while not showing the actual value. He is not showing how a slightly taller mannequin is 100% detected as an example.

Does Tesla tell buyers that FSD is currently trained only to detect objects 34" or taller immediately in front of the vehicle and that smaller objects will be ignored?

If there's no onus on Tesla to disclose the exact parameters of the system, why would you hold these people to a higher standard? We wouldn't even know this weakness existed if they hadn't done the tests and you hadn't done your own verification. And we have no idea what other weaknesses exist.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Has anyone seen the investors thread lately?

 

[Unpilot]

Does Tesla tell buyers that FSD is currently trained only to detect objects 34" or taller immediately in front of the vehicle and that smaller objects will be ignored?

If there's no onus on Tesla to disclose the exact parameters of the system, why would you hold these people to a higher standard? We wouldn't even know this weakness existed if they hadn't done the tests and you hadn't done your own verification. And we have no idea what other weaknesses exist.

The only parameter that matters is the fact the DRIVER is responsible.

I believe the "test" "these people" did was exhaustive...at least until they found the "right combination" to get the results they wanted.
I have FSB and use it all the time. It is safer than me driving without it. Of course, I pay attention.

I mean, we don't know if Tesla checks for incoming meteors, so maybe they should disclose that as well /s

 

[JRP3]

Does Tesla tell buyers that FSD is currently trained only to detect objects 34" or taller immediately in front of the vehicle and that smaller objects will be ignored?

Tesla tells buyers that the driver must be in control at all times.

 

[AndrewZ]

Tesla tells buyers that the driver must be in control at all times.

Again this is a total about-face when you contrast it with claims six years ago that the system was so advanced that a driver needed to be in the seat only for legal reasons, and with Elon continuing to claim that FSD will be realized any week now despite these real limitations existing and without mentioning that it will remain a Level 2 ADAS for the foreseeable future.

If omitting data is the problem, there's plenty of blame to go around.

This thread in particular is relentlessly forgiving when it comes to Autopilot/FSD, which is no surprise considering the implications for investors. People are much more realistic about the technology everywhere else in this forum.

 

[Ogre]

So, all we have to do is send an email

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559593296477003776

Based on Elon’s reaction here, I suspect they are turning it on for everyone with this release.

 

[Nocturnal]

This thread in particular is relentlessly forgiving when it comes to Autopilot/FSD, which is no surprise considering the implications for investors. People are much more realistic about the technology everywhere else in this forum.

I think people who have hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars on the line probably pay closer attention to possible issues than you think.

 

[wipster]

This thread in particular is relentlessly forgiving when it comes to Autopilot/FSD, which is no surprise considering the implications for investors. People are much more realistic about the technology everywhere else in this forum.

Then perhaps you should go elsewhere in this forum. This thread is supposed to be about investment.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This thread in particular is relentlessly forgiving when it comes to Autopilot/FSD, which is no surprise considering the implications for investors. People are much more realistic about the technology everywhere else in this forum.

Then why are you OT posting here?

 

[AndrewZ]

This isn't OT, all of this has obvious implications for investors and I'm here to be a pessimistic sounding board against the unwavering optimism. I've put quite a bit of work into understanding the nitty gritty behind this technology and what it is/isn't, people can weigh my insight with the optimism.

Based on Elon’s reaction here, I suspect they are turning it on for everyone with this release.

Not sure about that, I think the NHTSA would know if a wide release was coming. But maybe

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Clicked on the TSLA "research" button on Fidelity to try and get the analyst estimates for 3Q earnings. For whatever reason, Yahoo seems to have gone blank again.

Anywho....it's apparently $3.15 with a spread of $2.32 to $4.05 across 23 analysts. Fairly sure those are non-GAAP and there's a half decent chance we beat even that highest analyst estimate. Wild times.

 

[82bert]

Then why are you OT posting here?

I think we all know their motivations here.

 

[elasalle]

So, all we have to do is send an email

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559593296477003776

Send letter to Omar

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Clicked on the TSLA "research" button on Fidelity to try and get the analyst estimates for 3Q earnings. For whatever reason, Yahoo seems to have gone blank again.

Anywho....it's apparently $3.15 with a spread of $2.32 to $4.05 across 23 analysts. Fairly sure those are non-GAAP and there's a half decent chance we beat even that highest analyst estimate. Wild times.

There is still plenty of time for revisions to $5+ aka Gordo style

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Clicked on the TSLA "research" button on Fidelity to try and get the analyst estimates for 3Q earnings. For whatever reason, Yahoo seems to have gone blank again.

Anywho....it's apparently $3.15 with a spread of $2.32 to $4.05 across 23 analysts. Fairly sure those are non-GAAP and there's a half decent chance we beat even that highest analyst estimate. Wild times.

They’re non GAAP numbers. Barring anything unforeseen happening between now and end of the quarter, should be one of the largest earnings blowouts in history. Definitely will be the largest blowout by numbers and decent chance at %-wise too

 

[EVMeister]

This isn't OT, all of this has obvious implications for investors and I'm here to be a pessimistic sounding board against the unwavering optimism. I've put quite a bit of work into understanding the nitty gritty behind this technology and what it is/isn't, people can weigh my insight against the optimism.


Not sure about that, I think the NHTSA would know if a wide release was coming. But maybe

You say you have put in the work to understand the technology, yet you made an absurd argument that Tesla should disclose various individual limitations to users of FSD (in its current state) despite the fact they clearly state the driver must remain alert and attentive at all times? Surely that negates the requirement to list all possible limitations of the system (which change between revisions)?

 

[ZsoZso]

When a politician does that it means he or she is wanting campaign contributions from the company they are bad mouthing. No doubt paying the Danegeld will stop the bad mouthing (at least until additional contributions are wanted).

There is an idea for Elon, buy them all, it would still be cheaper than Twitter and may do more good for the mission
I know, I know, it is a waste of money to throw at politicians, but so is throwing at Twitter -- just sayin'

 

[Nocturnal]

Our MM friends don't seem worried about the split this time around.

 

[Ogre]

This isn't OT, all of this has obvious implications for investors and I'm here to be a pessimistic sounding board against the unwavering optimism. I've put quite a bit of work into understanding the nitty gritty behind this technology and what it is/isn't, people can weigh my insight with the optimism.

While people on this thread are extremely optimistic about the potential of FSD/ Robotaxi. That doesn’t mean they are hopelessly giddy about the current state of FSD and have blinders on regarding it’s limits. There is a huge difference between suggesting that Tesla has the best chances of getting something near Level 5 autonomous driving solved and saying FSD is perfect today. I see a lot of the former and not a ton of the latter.

Not sure about that, I think the NHTSA would know if a wide release was coming. But maybe

I don’t know either. But we do know Musk has repeatedly said 10.69 is special. We also know Musk has said they will turn FSD Beta on for wide release by year end. Mostly just looking at the laughing emoji which suggests to me Musk‘s comment was more than just face value.

What makes you think Tesla would need to notify the NHTSA that they are expanding the scope of the beta? I don’t think they have previously at any step of the way.

 

[thesmokingman]

Our MM friends don't seem worried about the split this time around.

Hopefully the BBBY squeeze will keep them busy.