Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Did someone say few days back that NZ is the new Norway

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559556904711557122

 

[elasalle]

Isn't Biden supposed to put pen on paper for the new Bill today?

 

[thesmokingman]

Isn't Biden supposed to put pen on paper for the new Bill today?

In the next few days...

 

[Krugerrand]

Not sure why you’re down on the overall markets performance. Looks like we’re having a intraday test of the 13k level in the Nasdaq to try and clear out the stop losses.

But as for TSLA, very disappointing it can’t break the high from Aug 4th and likely means more underperformance to continue. To me at least, Elon has successfully killed any institutional investor buying interest for TSLA at this valuation at this point in time. Now after Q3 earnings, that will change. But for the time being, there’s nothing to cause a breakout, including the split

Yup, Elon’s fault. All of it. The cookies I was baking yesterday got burned. Also Elon’s fault.

 

[AZRI11]

Not self driving. Level 2 using Green Hills Software.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559554790249713671

 

[willow_hiller]

In the next few days...

Today at 3:30 PM EDT. Here's the livestream:

 

[thesmokingman]

Oh look, the capping or whatever is weakening.

 

[Nocturnal]

Not self driving. Level 2 using Green Hills Software.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559554790249713671

View attachment 841535

FSD is Level 2 also.

 

[Drumheller]

The cookies I was baking yesterday got burned.

Why do you have to post something so sad?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yup, Elon’s fault. All of it. The cookies I was baking yesterday got burned. Also Elon’s fault.

Haha not sure how anyone can say Elon’s actions haven’t had an impact on the stock in the past 2 weeks. I definitely think it’s caused some loss of investor confidence right now. But it’s just temporary. Just need Q3’s earnings to get here that shows Tesla as a business is above whatever antics Elon decides to do.

You have valuations of many other companies that are much higher than Tesla’s nowadays. Large cap companies. I’m not talking market cap but in terms of metrics of valuation. It tells me currently, investor confidence is still more correlated to Elon’s antics than it is Tesla as a business and thus it’s valuation

 

[Discoducky]

Not self driving. Level 2 using Green Hills Software.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559554790249713671

View attachment 841535

I honestly hope ADAS was not involved in this as it looks like people were harmed. Dan has some serious negative karma built up however.

It was horrible when the Uber crash happened years ago.

 

[growler23]

Today at 3:30 PM EDT. Here's the livestream:

I did a bit more detailed looking at reports on this bill. Slightly but not totally OT.

There are significant cash rebates for some things I am interested in and I think others here might well be, as many investors here mentioned they have solar, battery, and therefore lots of electric power:
- All electric home heat pump: $8000 rebate
- Electric heat pump water heater: $1750 rebate
- Electric induction cooktop: $840 rebate
- up to $9,100 for improvements to electric panels, wiring and home insulation

These are described (WaPo, paywalled so I doubt a link would work but plenty of other folks spilling ink on this) as rebates, not tax credits, which I think is a positive. I may very well be diving in on one or more of those in my own puny attempt to...
Keep pushing the Transition.

 

[Todd Burch]

This seems like it was a typical ~10:30am Eastern MMD.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Isn't Biden supposed to put pen on paper for the new Bill today?

Biden set to sign ‘IRA,’ affecting your energy bill, pharmacy costs, investments | Marketwatch

Biden has signed the Inflation Reduction Act. Here's MarketWatch's rundown of how it will affect your energy bills, investments and drug costs.

President Biden on Tuesday signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats' big economic package. Here's a guide, through MarketWatch reporting, of...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Big Time]

Green

 

[thesmokingman]

Green

Locked and loaded waiting for Thursday!

Reupped the powder keg for 50 more chairs.

 

[hobbes]

Updated Giga Berlin VIN analysis (Norway deliveries) with some markup by me: You can see

• current production after factory shutdown for upgrades
• late delivery of cars with drive unit problem after gap in deliveries and presumably fixing it
• delivery of pre-production cars that were built before production permit was received and they only were allowed to sell a short time ago

Before everyone starts protesting, the production run rate estimate from the fit is obviously bogus after the shutdown, will have to wait a few weeks until this is even worth looking at. BTW, there have been 17,xxx VINs spotted in Germany, see here: Bestellübersichten Model 3 + Model Y (includes info on car configuration including FSD, maybe intersting for modelling...) @Troy

Source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559499532743970817

 

[TheTalkingMule]

- Electric heat pump water heater: $1750 rebate

In Texas this one is a no brainer. I have one in Philly and it's amazing in the summer. Pulls heat from the ambient air in the house and pumps out cool dry air.
You can even duct it short distances. I hope to duct mine straight up one floor as the living room is directly above my utility room.

I have solar on the roof, and now this pump directly offsets a LOT of my air conditioning peak in the summer. Basically shaves off 20% of my electricity summer peak while also heating my hot water with far less electricity than a normal hot water heater. Double savings.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Meme stocks going bananas. Hopefully this a hedgie-wide short squeeze fueled by the "inflation peak" reversal and strong market-wide buying pressure.

Iran looking willing to reopen a deal. Huge for oil. Bears across the board should be freaking out.

Capping oil futures means plemmetting oil futures IMO. And it's my guess that is the Fed's primary goal. Break this fossil reopening price gouging.

Still tons of uncertainty, but literally all factors are trending nicely.

 

[Drezil]

Don't forget: this week is monthly expiration .. meaning much more contracts on average ..
5-6x the amount of sold options this week than next. So each $ above 900 hurts 5x as much as letting it run after friday.

You can think of it like you want .. as long as there is a financial incentive to have the SP at a given price at a given time, there will be participants who "make" it so.. or at least try

Small addendum for the amount of $ we talk about as i think it sheds a bit more insight on the usual "why does the SP X?"

every $ above 900 costs "the market" (aka whoever sold the options that went in the money) roughly 7.5 million around 900. It gets WORSE the higher you go. Around $1000 SP we talk about 18.3 million $ in payouts for every $ TSLA closes higher.

Therefore the always mentioned "max pain" that produces the most losers in the options-game (i.e. the least amount of money changing hands) is at 860.
At 950 we talk about 1.8 billion dollar changing hands this friday.

So if you want to accumulate, better do it before friday .. as these things are "in the past" on monday.. and for next friday we only talk about a measly 450m changing hands at SP of 1000...

So.. there is roughly a 1.5b "incentive" to keep the SP below 950 until next week .. you go figure out what that does to the SP..

If these things "get out of control" and one participant can see that they do have to pay up .. they start to cover their position (i.e. buy shares at 930 to let them "go" at 950 still making a killing)... but that pressure brings the SP higher. SAME EFFECT DOWN. If you are on the hook for shares @950 and we started today with 930->944 you tend to get nervous .. and more relaxed on the way down < 910.. and maybe unload "protection" to "buy it cheaper" or "not needing it anymore" ..

Same rigged game. If you can "just" hodl and are not dependend on dividends/your portfolio growing/"earning" a living via options .. then this is a nice side-show
Grab some popcorn, enjoy the ride! Or maybe grab the option to have some popcorn in the future .. (/me leaves very fast & goes over to the other thread again )