Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Max Pain for today is @ 276.67. Go figga.

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 848212

Can anyone work out what's going on with all of the dirt being spread in the rear of the car loading logistics lot? They're trucking in various clean fill, some in bags and spreading it out over the concrete that was previously loading parking. It doesn't seem to make much sense from a structural/building perspective and I can't see anywhere on site they're digging dirt to move here. It could signal the start of new building activity here or nearby but I can't work out what yet.

I's the annual Linette Muddy Field Concert day

 

[Singuy]

If Toyota have only one model of car and they have the only gas station network that work with their cars, I guess there's infinite demand for that one model while the rest are irrelevant.

Ecosystem trumps "product breathe". --demonstrated by apple.

However we are talking about how safe investors are when buying Teslas bond and not how safe the stock price is right? If Tesla stops Capex/growth tomorrow and just maintain current sales, what makes 25 to 30% net margins on billions of dollars worth of revenue risky for bond buyers? Yeah sure the stock price can drop to a PE of 10 but Tesla will be more black than they are today.

 

[EVDRVN]

Good to know you can’t keep a secret.

Not that that the person at the service center would ever know since the description was vague in all regards. I guess someone won't be going back there very soon.

 

[ZsoZso]

Dozens of unprofitable models are obviously superior to four wildly profitable ones.

Also that line "The considerations are not so much of a quantitative nature, but more qualitative" is a very polite way of saying "We're recognize Tesla's financials are impeccable, but we won't upgrade them because we don't feel like it."

Tesla should rename each configuration as a different model, instead Model Y, they could have YS, YS+, YM, YLR, YP, similarly for 3/X/Y and they can get to 20+ immediately.

 

[SageBrush]

The longer China delays opening up, the weaker their immune systems will get.

Hogwash. Please stop playing doctor on the internet.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Just returned from a week long trip from Toronto to the US to visit family and friends and included sites: The White House, the Glass House by Philip Johnson, The Finger Lakes, and National Air Force Museum of Canada in Trenton. It was our first long distance trip (+2,200km) since purchasing our Model 3 LR back in June 2018. Up until now we have had limited experience with Superchargers (SC). In planning such a vacation, just as the hotels and tickets to venues need to be purchased in advance to set days, it is simply another simple step to plan your route using Go Anywhere | Tesla for SC locations. There were SC locations every 60km along the entire route, and we played it by ear, each travel day stopping around lunchtime (flexible SC locations) for a 40 min. charge and then again upon our destination arrival while having dinner or other activity. This allowed us to start with a full charge every morning. The SC locations were well positioned with great amenities, with many available chargers at each location, and all worked flawlessly, plug and play, literally. On each the four days we were travelling, EV charging added at most 15 minutes to our schedule. Tesla's far superior network of EV Supercharges is vastly underappreciated (by me up until last week) and the market. It truly separates Tesla from the rest of the EV manufacturers. When vacation planning, every night and special event must be pre-planned, so it is imparative that EV infrastructure simply work. I felt for non Tesla EV owners using those other EV chargers, many having confused looks, pacing on their phone outside their EV, straining to read sun glare stricken screens and reposition their EVs to allow cables to reach their chaging ports, did not look pretty.

Total cost of EV supercharging for over 1,750km (not including the 500km we had when we started out) was $203.07 CAD ($154.80 USD), so less than 1/3 the cost of a typical gas vehicle.

My rough estimate is that we saw one BEV for every 1000 cars while on our trip. Of those BEV, they we almost all Tesla. Did see a few Mustang, ID4 and one Hummer on a car carrier being delivered. This tells me that BEVs are only in their infancy. The Cybertruck will be huge to replace all those ICE pick-ups. During our trip we saw seven car carriers carrying Teslas. Not many, however that was more than twice as many car carriers than all other car manufacturers combined.

Just one data point, but I thought this would be helpful for those planning a long road trip. No range anxiety here.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I was in getting my tires pumped at my local service centre and was chatting with the Tesla manager who runs it and who I've known since 2018. He said they haven't seen any Model Ys with 4680s locally, but he says his team is monitoring a couple of Model 3s with 4680s! Is this possible?? I haven't heard that the Model 3 had 4680. He put a finger to his lips shhh. Can't be structural pack, right? Just 4680s?

I bet he's mixing LFPs up with 4680s.

 

[The Accountant]

What's Next?

I've been thinking about this Elon comment during the Q2 earnings call:

"We'll bring another level of simplicity and manufacturing improvements with Cybertruck and future products that we're not quite ready to talk about now but I think will be very exciting to unveil in the future" (bold added for emphasis).

Once the Semi and the Cybertruck are launched only the Roadster will be remaining in the auto launch pipeline. I believe that Tesla will announce a new vehicle around the time the CT is launched (mid next year) with a projected launch of late 2024 or early 2025. Many believe it will be the robotaxi vehicle but my hunch is that it is something else. Maybe a van . . .or a smaller CT . . .but I would love to see the compact car.

 

[Nocturnal]

What's Next?

I've been thinking about this Elon comment during the Q2 earnings call:

"We'll bring another level of simplicity and manufacturing improvements with Cybertruck and future products that we're not quite ready to talk about now but I think will be very exciting to unveil in the future" (bold added for emphasis).

Once the Semi and the Cybertruck are launched only the Roadster will be remaining in the auto launch pipeline. I believe that Tesla will announce a new vehicle around the time the CT is launched (mid next year) with a projected launch of late 2024 or early 2025. Many believe it will be the robotaxi vehicle but my hunch is that it is something else. Maybe a van . . .or a smaller CT . . .but I would love to see the compact car.

I'm thinking/hoping that they release some type of platform that will work as a van or robotaxi. That way they can shift the product mix back and forth depending on how promising FSD is looking.

 

[thesmokingman]

What's Next?

I've been thinking about this Elon comment during the Q2 earnings call:

"We'll bring another level of simplicity and manufacturing improvements with Cybertruck and future products that we're not quite ready to talk about now but I think will be very exciting to unveil in the future" (bold added for emphasis).

Once the Semi and the Cybertruck are launched only the Roadster will be remaining in the auto launch pipeline. I believe that Tesla will announce a new vehicle around the time the CT is launched (mid next year) with a projected launch of late 2024 or early 2025. Many believe it will be the robotaxi vehicle but my hunch is that it is something else. Maybe a van . . .or a smaller CT . . .but I would love to see the compact car.

My 15yr old is waiting for the the cheap Model 2 with baited breathe!

 

[Mengy]

What's Next?

I've been thinking about this Elon comment during the Q2 earnings call:

"We'll bring another level of simplicity and manufacturing improvements with Cybertruck and future products that we're not quite ready to talk about now but I think will be very exciting to unveil in the future" (bold added for emphasis).

Once the Semi and the Cybertruck are launched only the Roadster will be remaining in the auto launch pipeline. I believe that Tesla will announce a new vehicle around the time the CT is launched (mid next year) with a projected launch of late 2024 or early 2025. Many believe it will be the robotaxi vehicle but my hunch is that it is something else. Maybe a van . . .or a smaller CT . . .but I would love to see the compact car.

I think a Tesla Van is a certainty down the road, but whether it will come before or after the dedicated Robotaxi model is up in the air. A compact will likely happen too, but I feel that will only happen after all the other models are in volume production and they start having vast excess battery capacity.

My hunch is the Robotaxi design might double as both the dedicated taxi AND a compact consumer EV. Same super affordable chassis but one has human controls and one does not.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

My model has TSLA worth about $475 today and worth between $550 and $600 at end of 2023. Guess I need to figure how to model in thievery, propaganda, and deceit from those outside of Tesla.

I'm going to go for a new all-time record for Dislikes with this one:

Our current share price is not only fair, we are lucky to have it.

Technically, the last rally failed right at the Lower-High trendline. That means the technical expectation should be to make a Lower-Low right on that trendline. We are also in a firmly established, yet still young bear market and probable recession. With these market conditions, a PE of 100 is really bold and if the market as a whole continues to slide and shoes keep dropping, like NVDA yesterday, TSLA is going to get hit a lot harder.

Endless demand and pricing power is our only friend right now but that can only hold back a tough market for so long. I'm not making a call for a crash but I think the chances are high (20, 30, 40%) and I think the current price is fair.

 

[NicoV]

Dozens of unprofitable models are obviously superior to four wildly profitable ones.

Also that line "The considerations are not so much of a quantitative nature, but more qualitative" is a very polite way of saying "We're recognize Tesla's financials are impeccable, but we won't upgrade them because we don't feel like it."

Isn’t the whole merit of credit ratings that it is quantitative?

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Dozens of unprofitable models are obviously superior to four wildly profitable ones.

Also that line "The considerations are not so much of a quantitative nature, but more qualitative" is a very polite way of saying "We're recognize Tesla's financials are impeccable, but we won't upgrade them because we don't feel like it."

That's what I don't get... they say "The considerations are not so much of a quantitative nature, but more qualitative" but then go on to say 'we don't care if you sell 2 really great quality models, we want more quantity of models' contradicting the previous sentence.

Also saying "More concrete prospects for a broader vehicle lineup would be regarded as a positive development in this respect". What additional prospect vehicles do they need? Already have a pickup truck, and a Semi (and a ATV). If the vehicles get any more "concrete" they wont be prospects, they will be production.

 

[Nocturnal]

That's what I don't get... they say "The considerations are not so much of a quantitative nature, but more qualitative" but then go on to say 'we don't care if you sell 2 really great quality models, we want more quantity of models' contradicting the previous sentence.

Also saying "More concrete prospects for a broader vehicle lineup would be regarded as a positive development in this respect". What additional prospect vehicles do they need? Already have a pickup truck, and a Semi (and a ATV). If the vehicles get any more "concrete" they wont be prospects, they will be production.

Not to mention batteries, solar panels, residential storage, grid storage, insurance, tequila...

 

[Discoducky]

Not to mention batteries, solar panels, residential storage, grid storage, insurance, tequila...

Moody's views (from an ivory tower) Tesla as a car company with 2 large scale products vs traditional car companies and we all know that is not what Tesla is.

 

[Singuy]

Max Pain for today is @ 276.67. Go figga.

Rescue us MM, you are our only hope.

 

[2daMoon]

Also saying "More concrete prospects for a broader vehicle lineup would be regarded as a positive development in this respect". What additional prospect vehicles do they need? Already have a pickup truck, and a Semi (and a ATV). If the vehicles get any more "concrete" they wont be prospects, they will be production.

It is perfectly clear what they want to see is a Tesla Concrete Mixer. They are one of the broadest vehicles on the road, aren't they?

Frankly, I'm astounded nobody else caught this.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hogwash. Please stop playing doctor on the internet.

To be fair, he did back up the assertion with a related factual chart. You clearly don’t agree with the conclusion, which is fine.