Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jkirkwood001]

Haven‘t seen it mentioned here - but GigaShanghai closed down due to typhoon (reported by Rob in his daily update video).View attachment 852711

Hmm, shouldn't last long. According to Google, the typhoon has passed Shanghai already.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

maps.app.goo.gl

 

[Krugerrand]

Um, er, so what? I know it's kind of fun and pretty cool, but why is that of much value? The difference is that instead of constantly having to intervene, you instead have to pay close attention while doing little or nothing. It's certainly progress, but why would anybody pay much for such a thing?

Nothing really changes until FSD makes mistakes almost never. Nothing really changes until Tesla says the system is Level 4 and takes legal responsibility. Until then, it's a fun stunt, not worth much to anybody but tech nerds like me. I use it pretty much whenever I can, but that's because I find it an interesting experiment, not because it saves me much effort.

Well that’s just a load of hogwash. People have been saying for YEARS how much effort it saves them on road trips. How they arrive at their destinations far less tired and stressed.

And so you don’t think I’m simply repeating secondhand information, I’ve got over 85,000 miles on my car. The majority of those are long distance trip miles. AP has been an absolute godsend when doing mile after mile and hour after hour of traveling.

No, it can’t always navigate 12 lane road rage rush hour or a hairpin turn or a confusing construction zone with multiple temporary painted road markings no longer clearly defining the path forward. And sometimes it does get into the wrong lane or doesn’t drive as aggressively or defensively as I would in situations. It can’t read the minds of distracted drivers anymore than I can and sometimes it makes mistakes like everyone else does. And sometimes it even sees dead people, but I understand some humans claim that too. It also has occasionally appeared intuitive and saved my bacon or filled in when I wasn’t on top of my driving game.

Like so many times before, Tesla is held to some impossible standard that nobody else ever is. Nobody’s ever run an obscured stop sign before, huh? Or Chuck’s turn, where I imagine there’s been human accidents galore because it’s a stupid, dangerous, poorly thought out, engineered road situation. And you’ll definitely never see tire rubber on curbs in parking lots.

What a blessing it is to have such an immaculate driver as yourself testing this useless system that’s never driven a guy having a heart attack to emerg. Until it’s a perfect system, there’s not an ounce of good that can come of it.

 

[Unpilot]

Um, er, so what? I know it's kind of fun and pretty cool, but why is that of much value? The difference is that instead of constantly having to intervene, you instead have to pay close attention while doing little or nothing. It's certainly progress, but why would anybody pay much for such a thing?

Nothing really changes until FSD makes mistakes almost never. Nothing really changes until Tesla says the system is Level 4 and takes legal responsibility. Until then, it's a fun stunt, not worth much to anybody but tech nerds like me. I use it pretty much whenever I can, but that's because I find it an interesting experiment, not because it saves me much effort.

No one would have FSD unless we (all the folks that paid for it) and all the cars Tesla builds are feeding the machine that WILL provide FSD.

In other words, it is immensely valuable as a means to an end. If not for Tesla's approach, we would be stuck with Waymo weird mobiles.

 

[UncaNed]

The jobs in a car company that can't be done from home are on the assembly lines. But... with Optimus coming, there could be quite a few of those jobs that may be eliminated.

Things that make you go hmmm...

Yeah, sure. Till Optimus goes on strike to work from home, then what?

 

[UncaNed]

The main requirement is that it be capable of supplying 150kW to every stall with a CCS connectors at the same time. Supercharger V2 is only capable of ~72kW, most V3s can only do ~90kW.

Other potential requirements are having a onsite display and credit card reader and a 24x7 call center to be able to take payments and start a charge over the phone. (Those requirements are from the Oregon plan document.)

So Tesla has to add a credit card reader and stuff to be compliant??

Will all that be worthwhile?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

U.S. railroad strike averted by tentative late-night deal, article with gallery | REUTERS (9 min ago)

U.S. rail strike averted, but labor deal faces tough union votes

President Joe Biden's administration secured a tentative deal on Thursday to avert a railway strike that could have wreaked havoc on the U.S. economy, but union members angered by tough work conditions have yet to ratify the agreement.

www.reuters.com

Huge impact in oil futures thankfully. The fewer disruptions, the fewer reasons traders have to juice prices.

WTI headed back below $87, hopefully on its way to <80 soon. Powell is definitely watching!

 

[serverguy247]

Quick question for those in the know.

TSLA GAAP EPS from their deck was $1.98 for last quarter and macrotrends shows its growth over time (The graph is beautiful). It all makes sense.

But then I hit yahoo, MarketWatch and other websites and they show Q2 2022 EPS at $0.76. It is not GAAP vs Non-GAAP, so are there 2 ways to calculate EPS? why do some websites show it much lower that other websites?

Thanks!

 

[UncaNed]

$1.5B tax credits in 2023 from Giga Nevada alone?
Bradford Ferguson provides a nice concise recording (on Twitter Spaces) on Tesla's HUGE $1.5B upside in 2023.
Without Tesla needing to change anything, Bradford believes that Tesla will get $1.5B tax credits for the Battery production at Giga Nevada as the Panasonic agreement requires all tax credits be given to Tesla.

See his audio here:
edit: Audio starts at 0:15 timestamp.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570206597422653440

But does Tesla have enough tax liability to use all the credits, if they're reinvesting their money now?

(EDIT- Thanks @Usain and @TheTalkingMule for pointing out credits are transferrable and refundable, so Tesla gets them either way.)

Dumb question maybe, but I don't remember seeing just how much tax they actually pay overall, I assumed they had ways to mitigate much of their tax liability or something, being as smart as they are...

 

[MP3Mike]

So Tesla has to add a credit card reader to be compliant??

And add CCS connectors, and add an additional or bigger transformer, and add more Supercharger cabinets, without adding more stalls, to increase the simultaneous per stall output power to at least 150kW. (V2 sites couldn't be upgraded, they would have to be torn out and rebuilt as V3+ sites.)

And don't forget the on site display and 24x7 call center.

 

[MP3Mike]

TSLA GAAP EPS from their deck was $1.98 for last quarter and macrotrends shows its growth over time (The graph is beautiful). It all makes sense.

But then I hit yahoo, MarketWatch and other websites and they show Q2 2022 EPS at $0.76. It is not GAAP vs Non-GAAP, so are there 2 ways to calculate EPS? why do some websites show it much lower that other websites?

Because of the 3:1 split. You have to divide all of the numbers from before the split by 3.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Quick question for those in the know.

TSLA GAAP EPS from their deck was $1.98 for last quarter and macrotrends shows its growth over time (The graph is beautiful). It all makes sense.

But then I hit yahoo, MarketWatch and other websites and they show Q2 2022 EPS at $0.76. It is not GAAP vs Non-GAAP, so are there 2 ways to calculate EPS? why do some websites show it much lower that other websites?

Thanks!

Tesla's deck was published pre-split. Multiply $0.76 x 3 to get Q2 Non-GAAP EPS, split-adjusted.

Cheers!

 

[Usain]

Well that’s just a load of hogwash. People have been saying for YEARS how much effort it saves them on road trips. How they arrive at their destinations far less tired and stressed.

And so you don’t think I’m simply repeating secondhand information, I’ve got over 85,000 miles on my car. The majority of those are long distance trip miles. AP has been an absolute godsend when doing mile after mile and hour after hour of traveling.

No, it can’t always navigate 12 lane road rage rush hour or a hairpin turn or a confusing construction zone with multiple temporary painted road markings no longer clearly defining the path forward. And sometimes it does get into the wrong lane or doesn’t drive as aggressively or defensively as I would in situations. It can’t read the minds of distracted drivers anymore than I can and sometimes it makes mistakes like everyone else does. And sometimes it even sees dead people, but I understand some humans claim that too. It also has occasionally appeared intuitive and saved my bacon or filled in when I wasn’t on top of my driving game.

Like so many times before, Tesla is held to some impossible standard that nobody else ever is. Nobody’s ever run an obscured stop sign before, huh? Or Chuck’s turn, where I imagine there’s been human accidents galore because it’s a stupid, dangerous, poorly thought out, engineered road situation. And you’ll definitely never see tire rubber on curbs in parking lots.

What a blessing it is to have such an immaculate driver as yourself testing this useless system that’s never driven a guy having a heart attack to emerg. Until it’s a perfect system, there’s not an ounce of good that can come of it.

I think @Bet TSLA is making a distinction between highway driving and city streets.

On the highway, FSD is awesome.

On city streets, it's not useful yet.

 

[Usain]

So Tesla has to add a credit card reader to be compliant??

Maybe. I'm not sure it's clear that the federal rules require an actual physical reader connected to the charger. Maybe using the app, which in turn charges your credit card is good enough?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Thinking about this volume yesterday and the triple witching expiration this Friday. Its probably logical to time a planned accumulation for weeks like this because you have MM's eating tons of volume via naked shorting in order to profit from monthly/quarterly options.

Perhaps that's what we're seeing yesterday, today, and even during the plummet Tuesday. I mean.... someone bought ~1.5M shares in one shot Tuesday and it barely spiked the price.

Do long hedgies take advantage of mornings like this to get big buy orders in without impacting price too much as they accumulate?

 

[GOVA]

I wish somebody was brave enough to do FSD airport videos.

View attachment 852666

This actually shows tremendous deficiencies in terms of how old the infrastructure is. Our roads and airports had been designed 60 years ago. There were 6x less cars on the roads as well. Hardly anything has changed. We build and design really bad which shows in every major city that has cars.


This is not a task to be fixed by FSD driving through it. We need to start building our infrastructure like it is 2030, but with the governments being so corrupt kissing ass of you know who, I am not holding my breath.

 

[Usain]

But does Tesla have enough tax liability to use all the credits, if they're reinvesting their money now?

Dumb question maybe, but I don't remember seeing just how much tax they actually pay overall, I assumed they had ways to mitigate much of their tax liability or something, being as smart as they are...

It doesn't matter. Until 2027 (or 2028?), it's a refundable credit. So you don't need any tax liability to collect.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

But does Tesla have enough tax liability to use all the credits, if they're reinvesting their money now?

Dumb question maybe, but I don't remember seeing just how much tax they actually pay overall, I assumed they had ways to mitigate much of their tax liability or something, being as smart as they are...

Not sure about the battery production one, but a lot of these tax credits in the IRAct are transferrable. So Tesla can simply sell them.

 

[betstarship]

Wild - "New data now reveals that one in every 10 Tesla Model Ys delivered last month is now up for sale, with asking prices as much as $22,000 higher than new."

One in 10 Tesla Model Ys are being flipped on used car market

New data reveals one in 10 Tesla Model Ys delivered last month have been put up for sale on the used car market, and at a premium.

thedriven.io

More data:

Tesla Resale Trends 2021 - carloop

carloop.com.au

Also, as an aside: carloop - Australian EV Data & Ownership Trends

 

[thx1139]

This actually shows tremendous deficiencies in terms of how old the infrastructure is. Our roads and airports had been designed 60 years ago. There were 6x less cars on the roads as well. Hardly anything has changed. We build and design really bad which shows in every major city that has cars.


This is not a task to be fixed by FSD driving through it. We need to start building our infrastructure like it is 2030, but with the governments being so corrupt kissing ass of you know who, I am not holding my breath.

This is an impediment to FSD. This past March I spent 2 weeks in Orlando. Road design was horrid and these are new roads. Navigation would have me get off one highway onto a STROAD on the left then get on another highway by crossing over 4 lanes in a couple of 100 yards to get on another highway on the right. Dangerous as a human because we will take more risks then automation will. 2 of my kids now live in Austin and the roads and highways are just as nutty. Design of roads needs to take into account automated driving to truly make Levels above 3 possible.

 

[UncaNed]

Wild - "New data now reveals that one in every 10 Tesla Model Ys delivered last month is now up for sale, with asking prices as much as $22,000 higher than new."

One in 10 Tesla Model Ys are being flipped on used car market

New data reveals one in 10 Tesla Model Ys delivered last month have been put up for sale on the used car market, and at a premium.

thedriven.io

More data:

Tesla Resale Trends 2021 - carloop

carloop.com.au

Also, as an aside: carloop - Australian EV Data & Ownership Trends

Speaking of which, what's the easiest, safest way to sell a 40,000 mile, March 2018 Model X?

Selling to buy more TSLA Since I have my Plaid X now, and it should be out there saving somebody else buying dinosaur juice instead of sitting here much of the time.