Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

I’m confused about what you just said that makes me think you’re not up to date with the latest technology and reality. Like, what?

“Sir, your car did not just do what you said it just did.”

“Uhh, I was in the car. You were not.”

Honestly pretty confused with your response.

Exactly as I said. I don't know what you're going on about. You seem to be hyper-enthusiastic about the latest FSD Beta, yet it's pretty much a nothingburger. You say it's easily worth $15K, maybe $20K, yet it has no obvious value today.

So explain yourself. What are you talking about?

 

[Tommy O]

So explain yourself. What are you talking about?

Gladly.

My car can now drive me to any destination I choose in south eastern Louisiana (with caveats).

Previously, I would have to take over a lot. Either do a single tap up on the right stalk to force disengagement or just grab the wheel and fight the FSD system (which a literal baby could do. The torque required to disengage is almost too low).

Glad to discuss more privately. I said I bought more after this latest update. I also warned I’m an idiot.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The creep wall is useless in my environment. I love that it’s there, but for me it hasn’t changed anything.

This 2021 Y is doing things that just destroy my mind. You know way better than I do, but this update is so big to me that I’m shocked.

Shocked shocked shocked. Gotta get it out of my system.

The lane selection is still trash though.

Az here, it’s picking the correct lanes now for, and crossing right over. Kept turning onto turning lanes, that’s gone. But had a no-clear-reason alert at one intersection, both directions. But overall improvements in many ways and quite impressive to see it. “Did it just figure out that ___?” A common statement made.

 

[Ogre]

View attachment 852665

These two requirements I am not sure is needed. Sometimes the chargers are not pumping electrons fast as they should for a variety of reasons. So you may end up charging for 45 mins only to get around 30% charge. Also nothing stops from someone to unplug and plug it back again.

A standard that forces a fee is a bit odd, although the intent is a good one.

I am happy with this.

It means people with cars which max out at 50 kW or have terrible charging curves are a little less likely to skunk up charging stations.

If you can’t charge to 80% in 45 minutes then scoot on to the next charging station.

Incidentally, this also means the Hummer and likely the F150 Lightning will likely not be able to charge from 10% to 80% at a NEVI compliant station.

 

[Electroman]

Great point.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Gladly.

My car can now drive me to any destination I choose in south eastern Louisiana (with caveats).

Previously, I would have to take over a lot. Either do a single tap up on the right stalk to force disengagement or just grab the wheel and fight the FSD system (which a literal baby could do. The torque required to disengage is almost too low).

Glad to discuss more privately. I said I bought more after this latest update. I also warned I’m an idiot.

Um, er, so what? I know it's kind of fun and pretty cool, but why is that of much value? The difference is that instead of constantly having to intervene, you instead have to pay close attention while doing little or nothing. It's certainly progress, but why would anybody pay much for such a thing?

Nothing really changes until FSD makes mistakes almost never. Nothing really changes until Tesla says the system is Level 4 and takes legal responsibility. Until then, it's a fun stunt, not worth much to anybody but tech nerds like me. I use it pretty much whenever I can, but that's because I find it an interesting experiment, not because it saves me much effort.

 

[Gigapress]

Did a Seattle drive with @Gigapress today on 10.69.2 and the TL;DR is that it is:

• Achieved success at some of Seattle most difficult traffic and road segments/intersections
• Step change improvement for UPLs
• Very careful around VRUs and did very well
• Still jerky steering wheel movements at slow speeds
• Some hesitations and needed throttle and steering overrides at complex turns when traffic present
• Did NOT handle my 4 roundy's well, had to takeover 6 out of 6 times (I'm sad, but these are hard)
• Lane changes/choosing is unpredictable, seems 50/50 it will do the right thing
• DID handle my previously unsafe high speed UPL which it has never done before (due to new creep boundary)

Spoiler: Longer version

Picked up @Gigapress and headed for Volunteer Park. Roads that are super steep, rough, tight and not marked well. FSD handled these well with only one missed occluded stop sign (wanted to try this again, but we didn't, but it missed another occluded stop sign so this is an issue). Did some other steep/tight accent/decent lefts, rights and straights, which it handled somewhat ok, but some jerky steering wheel movements are quite unnerving when traffic is coming head-on (grr, Kalman filters at slow speeds is the root cause of this due to high jerk rate being allowed for any inputs to path planner being passed on to controls).

Not able to handle Seattle's hardest turn here, but no big deal as this turn is ridiculous and from my time on Google Maps, it is the most missed turn in Seattle.

Did a whole bunch of UPLs and it handled all of them, but was too hesitant and had to intervene about 30% of the time on average (about 5% of the time it was an unsafe hesitation). I believe the new network(s) that are controlling this will continue to get better (does NOT feel like they are anywhere close to a local maxima in performance).

Several times after a left or right, FSD was not able to get into the correct lane (one lane change left or right) when it needed to immediately (it is not either using any sparse map 'look ahead' road segmentation data or the network is sometimes not present or is just too sparse and is somehow lacking for that particular segment).

My two lane roundy's were not handled well and I had to intervene each time (a few unsafe moments) where it was very hesitant, it chose the wrong lane, changed lanes in the turn or simply was going to hit the target car. I had such high hopes, but I'll test this more tomorrow, hoping for some better results.

In conclusion: I'll be driving a bunch more tomorrow and hope to achieve more statistical data on the same turns

The occluded stop sign FSD missed was very occluded and only becomes visible at the last moment. I wouldn’t be surprised if human drivers miss it.

Overall we were very impressed. We were driving for at least two hours. Seattle is hard to drive and this is the best we’ve seen it. Steep hills, weird intersections, cyclists, all kinds of pavement imperfections, and occlusions everywhere, especially from all the gardens people have here that go right up to the edge of the street. In two instances FSD emergency stopped for pedestrians before we even noticed them.

 

[Thekiwi]

Haven‘t seen it mentioned here - but GigaShanghai closed down due to typhoon (reported by Rob in his daily update video).

 

[insaneoctane]

Maybe I missed it in this thread, but @Papafox always excellent daily summary today, he referenced this tweet which I found helpful. Mods, if this is redundant feel free to delete...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570103588151508993

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Maybe I missed it in this thread, but @Papafox always excellent daily summary today, he referenced this tweet which I found helpful. Mods, if this is redundant feel free to delete...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570103588151508993

That was helpfull, thanks.

He goes further and looks at PEG, which shows Tesla unervalued by that metric and Amazon as a special case outlier.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570105090106851328

He then goes on to point out these PEG ratios are with the very low (in his and my opinion) earning and growth estimates for Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570106053378850817

 

[UncaNed]

I still predict Dec 2023 will be last month that a new ICE vehicle will be it’s own collateral for any new buyer who has to finance the purchase.

What a great awkward conversation that will elicit at auto dealerships! They'll have some explaining to do.

 

[jerry33]

The main requirement is that it be capable of supplying 150kW to every stall with a CCS connectors at the same time. Supercharger V2 is only capable of ~72kW,

Those are urban Superchargers. V2 regular SCs can charge much higher (120 kW).

 

[Artful Dodger]

What I see looking at this chart is 'buy when the 50 DMA turns positive and sell when it turns negative.'

It can't really be that simple though, right?

There are literally hundreds of investing strategies that are that simple. That's the problem.

Cheers!

 

[WADan]

The founder of Patagonia is giving his company away to help fight climate change

Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard says he will give his company over to a trust, with future profits being donated to causes fighting climate change.

www.npr.org

Now this is how one person fights climate change! Wow!

 

[EVWatcher]

The founder of Patagonia is giving his company away to help fight climate change

Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard says he will give his company over to a trust, with future profits being donated to causes fighting climate change.

www.npr.org

Now this is how one person fights climate change! Wow!

We’ll see. Climate change isn’t a problem easily solved by non profits given the scale. It’s a government and corporate scale problem.

Would have been nicer to see Patagonia leverage their companies success at selling the outdoor Gucci to having an alternate brand that made a wider market product line with good sustainability practices. Fashion is typically terrible for the environment.

Not saying what they did is bad. But it’s not all that great either.

 

[ZachF]

Maybe I missed it in this thread, but @Papafox always excellent daily summary today, he referenced this tweet which I found helpful. Mods, if this is redundant feel free to delete...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570103588151508993

Adorable that they think Tesla will only make $18b in profit next year. Forward PE for Tesla is more like 35 than 50.

 

[WADan]

OMG

View attachment 852319

Darn. I think I will have to sell mine!

 

[mongo]

Those are urban Superchargers. V2 regular SCs can charge much higher (120 kW).

The criteria @MP3Mike is referring to is simultaneous connections. A V2 cabinet cannot output 240kW to supply two pedestals with 120kW each.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Maybe I missed it in this thread, but @Papafox always excellent daily summary today, he referenced this tweet which I found helpful. Mods, if this is redundant feel free to delete...

Lol....cherry picking the one data point to ever cross that thread implying TSLA is over or fairly valued. Nice.

Convenient you left out the entire other 90% of the post making it clear how wildly undervalued TSLA shares are today.

Do you also have concerns about Tesla's strict return-to-office policies?

 

[Artful Dodger]

U.S. railroad strike averted by tentative late-night deal, article with gallery | REUTERS (9 min ago)

U.S. rail strike averted, but labor deal faces tough union votes

President Joe Biden's administration secured a tentative deal on Thursday to avert a railway strike that could have wreaked havoc on the U.S. economy, but union members angered by tough work conditions have yet to ratify the agreement.

www.reuters.com