Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

I wonder if the sales of all these CCS adapters will affect the bottom line of the Supercharger side of business. Reading all the Facebook groups people are pretty pumped about using cheap CCS stations, often at half the cost of superchargers. It might not make a big difference in the coming quarter but once a few hundred thousand of these things are out there it might.

Maybe we’ll see some downward movement on Supercharger prices.

Jmho.

 

[Discoducky]

PSA I found interesting: Dillon says 4680's are being produced at Giga Texas; 10k/day. Kato = 100k/day

 

[Your Mom]

PSA I found interesting: Dillon says 4680's are being produced at Giga Texas; 10k/day. Kato = 100k/day

How does that compare to the previous rumors of ~400 4680 model Y per week?

 

[WattsHappening]

Gary isn't clueless, he just errs on the conservative side with his estimates. I lean conservative on my TSLA expectations too, but slightly higher than what Gary forecasts here. I think 365-370K production is very likely, but I'm not expecting more than that because we did have minor shutdowns this quarter.

Q4 will likely be huge though, quite the blowout to end the year.

The issue I have with looking forward in the near term is, every quarter we see something that keeps us from hitting earlier targets. Shanghai shutdowns, slower ramp than expected in Austin and Berlin, order slowdown in China in Sep. None of this was expected at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of Q3, I think we all were expecting greater than 360-370K in deliveries. And yet here we are.

Will Q4 be better? I'm 99.9% certain it will be; question is, how much better? There are too many things out of Tesla's control that can impact the company short term. Maybe it will be the IRA and some buyers pushing out their purchases into 2023. Or Russia or China. Another COVID shutdown. 4680 ramp continues to be slower than plan.

I'm bullish as ever, but I also don't discount the inevitable events that could hamper TSLA. I'm probably a bit more sensitive to this than many others here as I'm sitting on Jan and Mar 2023 calls (which I purchased 1.5 years ago). Looking back, I would not have given any credence to someone saying we would be trading at just $850 pre-split today. I'm obviously hoping for a blowout Q4, but I said the same thing about Q2 and Q3 at the beginning of each of those quarters.

 

[bkp_duke]

When you are evacuating how does a $20 savings on supercharger help, especially for someone owning a Tesla. ?

It's more a psychological benefit than a practical one, but it does have practical implications.

Imagine you are racing north to get out of harms way. You are charging, people are waiting. Instead of waiting as long as you can get to "get as much as you can", you leave when you have ample to get to the next stations. "I know Elon has us with free charging, so I'm going to get out of here and let someone else take my spot".

If people know the whole trip is free, they are likely to move on faster.


Maybe not in FL, but in SoCal, we see a LOT of people sitting at a supercharger to the bitter end of that low-speed portion of the charging curve. If they know the next stop is free, they probably will move on faster.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The issue I have with looking forward in the near term is, every quarter we see something that keeps us from hitting earlier targets. Shanghai shutdowns, slower ramp than expected in Austin and Berlin, order slowdown in China in Sep. None of this was expected at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of Q3, I think we all were expecting greater than 360-370K in deliveries. And yet here we are.

Will Q4 be better? I'm 99.9% certain it will be; question is, how much better? There are too many things out of Tesla's control that can impact the company short term. Maybe it will be the IRA and some buyers pushing out their purchases into 2023. Or Russia or China. Another COVID shutdown. 4680 ramp continues to be slower than plan.

I'm bullish as ever, but I also don't discount the inevitable events that could hamper TSLA. I'm probably a bit more sensitive to this than many others here as I'm sitting on Jan and Mar 2023 calls (which I purchased 1.5 years ago). Looking back, I would not have given any credence to someone saying we would be trading at just $850 pre-split today. I'm obviously hoping for a blowout Q4, but I said the same thing about Q2 and Q3 at the beginning of each of those quarters.

So you're saying you are due to be right eventually....

 

[Electroman]

If people know the whole trip is free, they are likely to move on faster.

Doesn't make sense.. but whatever

 

[Ogre]

PSA I found interesting: Dillon says 4680's are being produced at Giga Texas; 10k/day. Kato = 100k/day

Seems like getting the line started is the hard bit. They’ve already solved most of the problems at Kato so ramping should be a lot quicker.

Another way of looking at this. Giga Austin’s battery production is operating at ~0.01% of capacity.

 

[brantse]

These names don't make gas stations sounds like high-end establishments.

Sheetz is downright awesome. I live near where they started and recall a very early service ranger informing me that he made several service visits to one of the owners homes for repairs on his early Model S. Definitely a forward looking company and on the side of the good.

 

[WattsHappening]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574885673429082116

Good news if true. Before seeing this, I didn't consider fleet sales as a way of mitigating any year-end weakness in shipments due to the IRA.

And yes, I know I'm linking a Fred article. Sorry about that.

One key quote:
"Painter (CEO of Autonomy, an EV leasing company) said that, like Hertz, the company is not getting any discount from Tesla for its large order."

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574885673429082116

Good news if true. Before seeing this, I didn't consider fleet sales as a way of mitigating any year-end weakness in shipments due to the IRA.

And yes, I know I'm linking a Fred article. Sorry about that.

Fleet delivery involves transport of goods to destination, or just signing of documents?

 

[mongo]

PSA I found interesting: Dillon says 4680's are being produced at Giga Texas; 10k/day. Kato = 100k/day

Each structural pack is 828 cells, so 10k cells = 12 Ys a day, 100k = 120 Ys a day. Combined, that's 924 Ys a week of capacity. However, they could be using the cells for a different product.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You got Buccees.

Love that Beaver!

 

[WattsHappening]

Fleet delivery involves transport of goods to destination, or just signing of documents?

Good question; I assume you mean to be able to recognize revenue for the quarter.

I'm not sure. Usually, there is an agreement in place as to when the ownership transfers (FOB (Free On Board) Shipping or FOB Destination). I would expect it would be FOB Destination, which means delivery to destination before revenue can be recognized.

One thing I am sure about is that Tesla will have figured this into their delivery schedule to make sure revenue is recognized in Q3.

 

[adiggs]

Fleet delivery involves transport of goods to destination, or just signing of documents?

I don't know myself what goes into a fleet delivery - I figure at minimum, it does not involve hand holding new owners 1 car at a time while they get out their micrometer to measure panel gaps.

 

[Nocturnal]

I wonder if the sales of all these CCS adapters will affect the bottom line of the Supercharger side of business. Reading all the Facebook groups people are pretty pumped about using cheap CCS stations, often at half the cost of superchargers. It might not make a big difference in the coming quarter but once a few hundred thousand of these things are out there it might.

Maybe we’ll see some downward movement on Supercharger prices.

Jmho.

I think most of us only got them as a just in case type of thing. Not compatible with my 3, but I did buy one for my Y. The free or cheap CCS rates just reinforce my belief that these 3rd party charging companies are feckless. "We know we suck but here is cheap power." It's not like they will keep those customers when prices rise.

If I had to guess the profit from selling these adapters should wash out any loss in SC revenue over the near term, and opening the network will steal more CCS revenue by far.

 

[willow_hiller]

Boring company selling "eau de TSLA shorts"?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574897832095408128

 

[WattsHappening]

After hours trading up 1.5%. Nasdaq futures up just 0.3%.

Anyone know of any news or what could be driving this? Seems like a big move after hours if no news.

 

[StapleGun]

Twitter deal reached and Elon is buying back in? Probably wrong but it's an oddly smooth upwards chart for AH.

 

[woodisgood]

A few larger green energy/solar names also having strong AH moves so could just be continuation of strength from today.