MartinAustin
Active Member
THIS. What car rental company has 8yr old cars in its fleet? They're usually 3yrs or less I would say. Hertz does NOT need to worry about that
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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thesmokingman
Active Member
Omg, these are rental fleets. These cars will endure more abuse than yours or mine. And accidents happen, they'll run over stuff in the course of their lives. Thus there will likely be battery issues that do not fall under warranty well short of the intended lifespan. That's when the sticker shock will hit Hertz unless they negotiated a special rate. FYI, the story out of China on replacement battery cost due to a driver accident, you know it was more than the cost of the whole car...
But that still wouldn't hurt Hertz. The driver would be responsible for the damage they caused. (Or their insurance if they have any.)
And they wouldn't be forced to buy a new battery, the vehicle would likely just be totaled and sent to auction for parts.
This is what insurance is for.
If there is a financially crippling amount of catastrophic battery failures over the 10,000 - 100,000 car fleet Hertz is buying, then it's likely there is a recall or manufacturing defect. Time for a lawsuit.
These names don't make gas stations sounds like high-end establishments.
This just seems completely counter to everything I know about Musk.
I think he would far rather punish the bears, even if it meant he would suffer financially a bit. I also can't see him letting Tesla "disappoint" for a quarter if he can help it.
Depends what you consider "High End". When compared to say "Mustang Ranch" or "Sheep Ranch", Sheetz and Wawa sound downright upscale. Kum and Go on the other hand... probably not the sort of place you'd take a good friend for his bachelor party.
Wait... gas stations?
If not, you may not know that Hertz and other major car rental firms very rarely have rental vehicles older than two years, and usually less than that. They'll never see any significant non-warranty costs that would not be insurance claims. Tires where seasonal changes are needed would be about it.
Manufacturers other than Tesla also have buy-back options and/or other incentives for large fleet sales. Tesla is the only one I have heard of that does not make significant concessions.
(it's nothing like the 1970's and 1980's but the deals are still attractive for fleets)
jkirkwood001
Active Member
You're not wrong. But in the Andy Grove, only-the-paranoid-survive mentality, there's something to be said for a company continuing to push itself, to continue to give stretch goals, to remain competitive, even when it's no.1. Of course Tesla isn't in any jeopardy any more (remember only a few years ago when we still semi-snickered about 'going bankwupt'?), but it's a bad business strategy to tell staff "relax, we don't need to try hard any more". It's not is Elon's DNA to coast.
No, that is not how it works. We could go to excruciating detail but it's not necessary. Car rental firms of any size have several simple solutions to this issue:
1. They sell Collision Damage Waiver and other pseudo-insurance products that generate a very high proportion of their revenue. (for several of them this is their most profitable business);
2. They have warranty service arrangements with OEM's, Tesla included.
3. Major companies including Hertz, Sixt and the National/Alamo/Budget etc make money selling used cars. Those are newish and generally well equipped. It is rare to see anything in their fleets with more than 25,000 miles for US/NA and 50,000 km for EU. EU slightly higher usage mostly because usage is typically 'kinder' in EU than in NA. Equally rare to see cars older than two model years.
All that is why they really do not have major maintenance. If any significant damage happens they typically total the vehicle and sell at auction. When they sell as used cars they are all clean with full maintenance records.
Never ever a 100,000 mile rental car except in odd places or the odd Uber or specialist like Rent-A-Wreck.
A while back, Musk said (roughly) "We're not going to do the quarterly pushes anymore". But almost every quarter since they've had at least a modest quarterly push and some were fairly aggressive.
I'm sure the logical side of Musk's brain wanted to stop doing the quarterly pushes, but the part of his brain that drives him relentlessly forward would not let it happen. As you say, it's not in his DNA.
People with that much drive get burned out. I worry about his longevity on this world. For him, for us, for the world.
Tight race again...
Source: Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market
Source: Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market
Paracelsus
Active Member
Just a quick note sending thoughts and prayers to our long time TMC Brothers and Sisters in Southern and Western Florida in the path of Hurricane Ian. Off the top of my head @winfield100 , @jbcarioca , and @UltradoomY are directly in the projected line of fire, and perhaps a few others as well. Wishing all of you a very safe next couple days.
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You would think suggestive market research data would be available from Sheetz hosting of Superchargers in the US.
If you are referring to this, even though the twitter account is #berlinergy, the tweet is based on electrek´s reporting and likely not limited to Berlin deliveries but global. But your reasoning works anyway, Elon has said so many times they´ll get rid of the wave..
JupiterMan
Active Member
I would like to see that graph with local berlin production separated.
I expect Q4 onwards it should become less of a competition with VW?
I like that slope since the end of August! Splitting the Volkswagen group and Hyundai group into their sub-brands gives a different impression than if they didn't, though.
Gary showing he's rather clueless as to how Tesla's business works when it comes to how production ramps affects Tesla's earnings. Q2 was the absolute worst gross margins Tesla was going to deal with for the foreseeable future since Austin/Berlin were early in their ramp and their costs moved from R&D to COGS and also that Shanghai was running way below the capacity it was during Q1, which was also a big material hit to gross margins. Then add in in the restructuring costs from all the layoffs.
I view $1.30 Non GAAP EPS (which is what Gary's estimate is, a Non GAAP EPS estimate) to be the baseline as long as deliveries are above 360k. I guess this is a positive because when even Tesla bulls grossly underestimate earnings, it's a big beat........but still Gary. That's terrible analysis
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Has Tesla opened up the SpC network, like in the past, for free to help people evacuate?
Gary showing he's rather clueless as to how Tesla's business works when it comes to how production ramps affects Tesla's earnings. Q2 was the absolute worst gross margins Tesla was going to deal with for the foreseeable future since Austin/Berlin were early in their ramp and their costs moved from R&D to COGS and also that Shanghai was running way below the capacity it was during Q1, which was also a big material hit to gross margins. Then add in in the restructuring costs from all the layoffs.
I view $1.30 Non GAAP EPS (which is what Gary's estimate is, a Non GAAP EPS estimate) to be the baseline as long as deliveries are above 360k. I guess this is a positive because when even Tesla bulls grossly underestimate earnings, it's a big beat........but still Gary. That's terrible analysis
Gary isn't clueless, he just errs on the conservative side with his estimates. I lean conservative on my TSLA expectations too, but slightly higher than what Gary forecasts here. I think 365-370K production is very likely, but I'm not expecting more than that because we did have minor shutdowns this quarter.
Q4 will likely be huge though, quite the blowout to end the year.
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