Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

How can the bot change the way we live without being affordable and mass-market?

It’ll change our lives even before everyone can afford one. It’ll change our lives so we can all afford one.

 

[Paracelsus]

Elon Musk to provide Florida with Starlink satellites in response to Hurricane Ian

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk agreed to provide the company's satellite internet service, Starlink, for help in response to Hurricane Ian in areas of Southwest Florida still without connectivity.

www.reuters.com

In addition to the Starlink equipment provided for first responders, DeSantis said in the full interview that Elon & SpaceX have offered to deploy 120 Starlink satellites for Southwest Florida and that SpaceX will cover the cost of that effort.

As a Navy Nuclear Reactor Operator and Desert Storm Vet, and a Facility Manager for Federal and State facilities across Alaska and the Pacific Northwest, and now a Florida resident, I have watched in amazement and sincere appreciation of the preparation, implementation, and communication by the State of Florida of all phases of this response. It is heads above anything I have ever previously experienced, regardless of however the media might spin it. And Elon and SpaceX jumping in just help make it next-level, like they do with everything they get involved with.

 

[2daMoon]

Maybe. If corporations can be treated as persons under the law, why not robots?

Reminds me of recently receiving an order for the entire Azimov "Foundation" series. I should be able to get some working knowledge about robot law as I work my way through those books, right?

 

[PeterJA]

...BD's systems were never built with the idea of mass market and distinctly not towards replacing human factory workers....

This is true of Atlas.

Boston Dynamics currently sells two other robots: the dog-like Spot (starting price $74,500), and the box-handler Stretch (price unreported). Agility Robotics sells a handless humanoid, Digit (currently $250,000, aspirationally $70,000).

Competition is coming... from Tesla.

 

[Phobi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576287306645790720

Let’s go.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Dibs on the name Robbie for mine. I have always been an Asimov fan.

I'm calling mine Arnold. I've always been a dystopian fan.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

To me there seems to be a large swath of gray area between having the bot contribute specifically in Tesla’s factories vs. the general purpose bot that can do a lot of great things in our homes, businesses, etc.

I have no doubt we’re straight line to the former. How we get to the latter is still a bit nebulous. Analogizing to the cars, the reason FSD can drive anywhere is that the training data comes from everywhere. The ”robots” were already out in the world collecting training data en masse because they were a useful thing people were buying. In contrast, how does Tesla collect all the speech and household data that is more pertinent for the bot? In this regard, someone like Ring/Amazon has a headstart on the ideal training dataset.

This is why I have always thought the way to the truly useful bot is via a development platform/App Store like iOS. In such a scenario, third party developers take on the costs and responsibilities of giving the bot the training environments it needs for the use cases at hand. Let’s say I’m a restaurant chain. I invest millions to buy bots, put them into a diverse array of kitchen “sets” I construct, and give them exposure to the environments and tasks they need to learn. They break a lot of dishes, waste a lot of food, but in the end depending on how good my training setup is and how much $$ I’ve invested, maybe they’ve learned how to cook in a commercial kitchen. This discrete set of training is then sold as a “skill” (like an app). Maybe it costs a ton if the training is very good. And maybe it only costs $3 if I have only taught them how fry an egg one way. I get a large share of the profits. Tesla handles training via Dojo, deployment via a skill store, and has final say in terms of safety, much like app stores. This question was posed during the Q&A and understandably Elon expressed safety concerns about opening it up in this way. The magic sauce here lies in whether Tesla can put together a development platform that unlocks an entire ecosystem of “trainers” while keeping malicious skillsets from being developed.

The challenge is getting the bot in large enough numbers into the right environments to learn the tasks you want it to. It won’t learn how to weed your yard effectively until it has seen millions of yards and tried to deal with millions of weeds, much like FSD hasn’t gotten good at right turns until it has seen and attempted millions of them. It won’t get good at navigating your kitchen until it has tried to open different fridges, dealt with varying standards of kitchen clutter and organization, used a variety of frying pans and cooktops, etc. Since the bot is unlikely to find its way into our homes in large numbers until it is actually useful, there needs to be a way to get all of this training data, and I think that will eventually require a robust ”training” community.

One of the business cases I see interesting is using a Teslabot in a manner similar to a robotaxi (from a business model standpoint). Sure, use one to weed and mow your yard. But what about owning a small fleet-along with a FSD Cybertruck. You essentially have your own landscaping company....but without the negatives of employees. Send the truck out to deliver them to a neighborhood where you have contracts, and let the bots do the work. In a perfect world, charge the bots, as well as some battery-powered mowers/trimmers/pruning saws all off the CT battery. Similar with farm work-have a small fleet that can travel from farm to farm, harvesting fruit during harvest season or pruning trees during fall/winter.

The other place I see the real need is dirty, dangerous, unpleasant outdoor jobs. Logging, a very dangerous job with a significant labor shortage. Another dirty, miserable job few humans want to do-meat packing industry. Perhaps less undesirable, but also with increasing need-the home delivery business. Rather than putting humans in the Big Brown Trucks, use TBs (with autonomous driving vehicles of course).

All are perhaps more difficult to "learn" than a repetitive factor job such as loading and unloading a CNC machine or stacking parts, with significantly more learning involved. But compared to FSD, it seem like it would be pretty straight forward.

 

[Drumheller]

Maybe we can elect Optimuses (Optimi?) to congress.

It may be too shocking to the country to improve govt that much in a single step.

 

[jerry33]

I’m sure there’s another 50 tries at the watering task that went wrong before getting it. So? And the Factory example was slow… again, so??? They exceeded my expectations. It did not fall over on stage. Flawless yet daring. No sandbagging at all.

Right. First you make it work. Then you make it work correctly. Then you optimize for speed.

 

[The Accountant]

I am seeing Dec 2022 delivery dates for the Model S&X Plaid for Europe on the order page.
Deliveries of Plaids to Europe will help Q4 margins.

 

[2daMoon]

It’ll change our lives even before everyone can afford one. It’ll change our lives so we can all afford one.

This is exactly what likely went over the heads of many watching the presentation, despite Elon and others repeated mention of the economic impact.

The potential of the bot combined with essentially free energy from renewables opens the door for a world where Universal Basic Income is not just possible, it is imperative. (and wouldn't be dependent upon taxes to pay for it)

Given some thought on how everyone having what they need to get by changes motivations. If a person wants to be creative or productive they can be, not because they have to work to survive, simply because they find it rewarding to do so.

It boggles my mind thinking about this. But, that might not be saying much.

 

[Dutchie]

I don't see the Earth based purposes.

the porn industry will quickly find the first applications. Just as in in the past when new technologies were introduced.

 

[Snerruc]

Reminds me of recently receiving an order for the entire Azimov "Foundation" series. I should be able to get some working knowledge about robot law as I work my way through those books, right?

You need the Robot series. Naked Sun, I Robot, etc.

 

[Singuy]

Hate comes from within. Blaming others for one’s own inner hate is like saying it’s the victim’s fault they got robbed because they had the audacity to walk down the street after dark. People need to be responsible for themselves, wholly.

Hate from these people comes from a place of "good intentions" because people never see themselves as evil or mean.

I'll give you an example.

Apple launches the 5.5 inch screen phone 2 years after their competitors. This is fine until some people say "apple leading the way, changing the world". This statement will trigger most android users instantly as they see this statement to be hilariously wrong. Are there people who would say such a thing because they live in their apple bubble and never looked at anything else? Absolutely...and this is why Tesla gets the same type of "hate". It's not within, it's due to critics frustrated at fanboys not looking at anything else or dismissing everything else as inferior. It's the behavior of arrogance that generated the hate from the other side.

 

[JRP3]

It's the behavior of arrogance that generated the hate from the other side.

There was hate for Tesla long before "fanboys" did anything.

 

[wtlloyd]

Reminds me of recently receiving an order for the entire Azimov "Foundation" series. I should be able to get some working knowledge about robot law as I work my way through those books, right?

Elon came so close to quoting the 3 laws of robotics last night, I was leaning forward encouraging him to continue.

 

[Singuy]

There was hate for Tesla long before "fanboys" did anything.

Fanboys already did something, they became a fanboy...

Definition: person who behaves in an obsessive or overexcited way. Meaning the person is no longer objective but now biased.

 

[Knightshade]

You need the Robot series. Naked Sun, I Robot, etc.

At risk of spoilers, all of it (and more) is just one really long series.

Elon came so close to quoting the 3 laws of robotics last night, I was leaning forward encouraging him to continue.

3? But... yeah, ok, THAT would be a spoiler...

 

[Dutchie]

They killed it. This is a giant flashing sign for all the brilliant, young people out there. Here you will matter.

What struck me is that it was such a diverse group of talent. Hearing all these different accents - they have come from all over the world! Tesla is quite a magnet in that space.

 

[wtlloyd]

At risk of spoilers, all of it (and more) is just one really long series.




3? But... yeah, ok, THAT would be a spoiler...

Humans are too self-serving to ever instigate zeroth law. Instrumentality of Mankind, on the other hand...
.