Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Q2 was an outlier though. Look at it like this: Q3 2022 was only 11% higher deliveries than Q1 2022. With two new factories ramping plus production upgrades in Shanghai I think many expected a higher increase in 6 months than that.

Q3 production was 20% above Q1: 1.2*1.2 = 1.44 or a 44% extrapolated growth rate over 4 quarters. Upgrade shutdowns were in Q3 and were not finished until mid August and mid-September. They had to recover from lost production with the new capacity in a sub-quarter time span.

FWIW: 6 month growth of 22.5% yeilds 50% yearly.

 

[EVNow]

We seem to have had an all-time record Model S/X production:
Q3 2022 19935/18672 prod/delivery
Previous record:
Q4 2019 17933/19450

Q2 2022 was 16411/16162, so revenue and profit-wise this should add something extra.

Q4 should have record S/X production and delivery, with very good ASP because all S/X delivered in EU will be Plaid.

Not according to my old spreadsheet. Tesla used to do ~100k per year.

 

[GOVA]

You think the stock will go up tomorrow?

Who knows such things? Not me. I don't care really.

Why? Are you selling?

 

[jerry33]

Need an induction cooktop.

Got one. It's quick, but not instant.

 

[Mich]

I feel like with a 50%YoY growth and such a low inventory this 20k of cars in inventory is a nothingburger (and actually healthy).

Is there a public spreadsheet available with all production and delivery (and inventory) numbers? I'd like to play with the numbers to validate that...

 

[traxila]

As has been pointed out Optimus is Latin based not Greek so that reasoning doesn't follow.

You are correct. But Greek was brought up.

This is a frivolous conversation that I was using for us to have some fun. But enough.

Call him Fred and Freds. I don’t care.

 

[Drumheller]

 

[Gigapress]

Optimus is the Latin word for "best" in the masculine nominative singular case. The masculine nominative plural is Optimi, not Optimii. Multiple Teslabots should be referred to by either "Optimi" or by the anglicized form "Optimuses".

Feminine is Optima (s) and Optimae (p), and neuter is Optimum (s) and Optima (p). Latin cases other than nominative typically aren't carried over to English because in English this information is implied from the sequence of words in the sentence.

Source: I took Latin in high school.

 

[jerry33]

Not according to my old spreadsheet. Tesla used to do ~100k per year.

View attachment 859265

True, sort of. There was a 75K S/X back then. If you consider only the 95K+ S/X it's record breaking.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Using @theaccountant rev est for Q3 of $22B we should be at a trailing twelve month revenue amount around $75.3B.

For Q3 we have trailing twelve month production of 1.23M vehicles.

Using price to sales valuation here is the price range we should see:

price/sales	Q3
10	$240.31
11.5	$276.35
15	$360.46
20	$480.62

Below is a chart from ycharts.com showing teslas price to sales valuation year to date:

Since May we've bounced between 11-15

 

[wipster]

I feel like with a 50%YoY growth and such a low inventory this 20k of cars in inventory is a nothingburger (and actually healthy).

Is there a public spreadsheet available with all production and delivery (and inventory) numbers? I'd like to play with the numbers to validate that...

What inventory? Those are purchased cars in transit that will be delivered when they reach their destination. Inventory means cars you can purchase and receive now (or shortly afterward).

 

[woodisgood]

I wouldn‘t worry too much about the stock being in the doldrums for too long even if there is a downdraft tomorrow (excluding force majeurs like nuclear war or financial collapse, etc). In my book Investment Grade upgrade is likely to come earlier if the stock is swooning. If we completely blew out P&D, and AI Day was somehow a stock catalyst, and we zoomed to 350, IG wouldn’t come until 2023.

Just how the big boys play.

 

[EVNow]

Who knows such things? Not me. I don't care really.

Why? Are you selling?

It matters to people who are selling .... options

 

[Todd Burch]

For those freaking out,

Remember: the stock’s reaction to this, up or down, doesn’t really matter short term. Myopic traders will do what myopic traders do. In the words of the wise Rob Maurer, production is all that really matters. Tesla only produces cars that have already been sold.

Actual Q3 results for production differed by Rob’s forecast by a little over 1000 cars. Tesla’s on track.

The numbers this quarter were primarily affected by stoppages to upgrade the factories. This is a good thing. Not only will the 20k car delivery shortfall immediately increase Q4’s numbers by 20k, but logistics costs will go down for Q3 and here on out. That is also a good thing.

No need to freak out. Wall St gonna play whatever games they play. Meh, let em. They ain’t gettin my shares.

 

[NicoV]

Not according to my old spreadsheet. Tesla used to do ~100k per year.

View attachment 859265

Thanks for the correction. I didn’t look further than 2019. Still a nice result.

 

[EVNow]

True, sort of. There was a 75K S/X back then. If you consider only the 95K+ S/X it's record breaking.

Yes - Model Y lease rates are now in the old Model S/X lease range.

 

[Discoducky]

Perspective: As Tesla goes up, Toyota goes down.

I've got my eye on the prize

autoevolution: Toyota and the Horror Chip Shortage: Five Plants Closed, Car Production Going Down.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/toyota-and-the-horror-chip-shortage-five-plants-closed-car-production-going-down-200137.html

Q3 production was 20% above Q1: 1.2*1.2 = 1.44 or a 44% extrapolated growth rate over 4 quarters. Upgrade shutdowns were in Q3 and were not finished until mid August and mid-September. They had to recover from lost production with the new capacity in a sub-quarter time span.

FWIW: 6 month growth of 22.5% yeilds 50% yearly.

 

[Gigapress]

What inventory? Those are purchased cars in transit that will be delivered when they reach their destination. Inventory means cars you can purchase and receive now (or shortly afterward).

That depends on what definition of inventory is being used.

Inventory in the sense used on the Tesla.com order page means cars available for purchase now. Per Tesla's 10-Q, from an accounting standpoint vehicle inventory also includes vehicles in transit to customers and raw materials and work in process.

 

[wipster]

That depends on what definition of inventory is being used.

Inventory in the sense used on the Tesla.com order page means cars available for purchase now. Per Tesla's 10-Q, from an accounting standpoint vehicle inventory includes finished goods, but also raw materials and work in process.

View attachment 859275

Understood, but in the statement above and when discussing end of quarter deliveries, my preference (and I believe Tesla's as well) is to refer to them as vehicles in transit.

 

[Gigapress]

In case there was any remaining doubt that Andrej Karpathy left Tesla on good terms, it would appear that he was the "friend" who had to take 5 tequila shots because Elon said "Software 2.0".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576057698092580864