Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Even more fun if we look at the US sales data since Q3 2017 when the ICEV industry peaked.


Tesla up 936%


GM down 28%
Ford down 25%
Toyota down 24%
Honda down 51%

 

[traxila]

Tesla Deliveries Bounce Back to Record, Though Dented by Distribution Delays

Elon Musk’s auto maker requires another boost in quarterly deliveries to meet its annual target.

www.wsj.com

Surprisingly decent article based on facts. Uses the word ‘record’! Mentions upcoming record profit earnings report as well. Even writes about EM looking ahead to cheaper COGs due to dropping prices for commodities.

”Tesla’s record third-quarter deliveries are expected to help the company post its highest ever quarterly sales and a record profit of $3.34 billion when it reports third-quarter results, topping the $3.32 billion first quarter profit.”

“Tesla on Sunday said it had delivered 343,830 vehicles to customers in the three-month period ended in September, up from about 255,000 in the prior quarter that was dented by a temporary shutdown of its factory in China.”

”“I think inflation is going to drop rapidly,” Mr. Musk said, noting that because Tesla has to buy supplies months out, it can see where prices are headed. “The interesting thing that we’re seeing now is that most of our commodities, most of the things that go into a Tesla—not all but more than half—the prices are trending down in six months.””

 

[Artful Dodger]

To get back to the $1.36 eps, ASP would have to come in higher in my model by $1,800 per car. It's possible.

Indeed, the ASP increase would only represent a 3% increase (well within the range expected due to Tesla's order page changes).

Then the higher proportion of S/X deliveries, as well as lower lease rates (higher rev. recognition in Q3) should also help nudge the effective ASP higher.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Lot of doom and gloom out there this weekend, but this chart with my estimated revenue for q3 and q4 looks bullish to me

Original chart by James Stephenson

 

[WADan]

I hope I am wrong. but considering the volatility in the market lately and the negativity surrounding the Optimus Robot expect a huge downward move tomorrow (25%?)

Jusr a little tip, stay off Twitter fro a while. It is a depressing cesspool over there at the moment.

I hope you are right as I missed out on the last go round. My ROTH gun is still loaded.
(Please don’t shoot me. I am just going to take advantage of another chance. I did not pull the trigger the last time since I was not convinced that the macro would cooperate yet. Luck is better than smart since I am definitely not that smart!)

 

[Todesbuckler]

Early pre-market TSLA trades on European markets are around 265€ (260$).
Which is a bit less than -2% compared to the US close on Friday.

 

[ToTheStars]

So Much Talk of Exponential Growth, But So Few Logarithmic Charts

Thank you for your hard work. This chart was long overdue.

 

[JusRelax]

This is complete conjecture based off of rumor, so take with a grain of salt... but is Giga Shanghai preparing to produce MX?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576765498909679616

 

[Chenkers]

This is complete conjecture based off of rumor, so take with a grain of salt... but is Giga Shanghai preparing to produce MX?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576765498909679616

Robotaxi platform van?

Ray's followup tweet references longer wheel base versions of other models being popular in China. But this doesn't seem like the Tesla way of doing things.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576764934381178882

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is complete conjecture based off of rumor, so take with a grain of salt... but is Giga Shanghai preparing to produce MX?

Yup. Right after the 'stretch' (long wheelbase) Model 3. /s

 

[Buckminster]

$250 currently, 3 mins after premarket opening.

 

[petit_bateau]

Don't forget the ~4k undelivered vehicles from Q2. I think there's a good chance that whatever logistics issues hampered deliveries last quarter will have eased by end of year.

If it helps this is the historical data I've collected on Tesla inventory, and my approximation of what Q3 is :

 

[ThisStockGood]

One of those days I prefer to open up a beer, turn off the internet router and watch a locally cached Warren Redlich video about TSLA TO $250,000 in 2030

Yikes…

 

[cliff harris]

Wall st are such muppets. You would think from their actions that they assume any car that was produced in q3 but not delivered gets vaporised.
Such idiocy. No reason at all for a drop in the stock. Production was pretty darned good, and we haven't seen Berlin or Texas get going yet. I have extremely high hopes for Q3 earnings, and even better for Q4.
Once the first semis and cybertrucks roll out the door next year, the stock should go bananas. Even wall st cant pretend that those trucks do not exist.

Ignore all the press today, and hold.

 

[Artful Dodger]

One of those days I prefer to open up a beer, turn off the internet router and watch a locally cached Warren Redlich video about TSLA TO $250,000 in 2030

Haha, maybe this'll help:

Crew-5 Mission | 09:15 EDT

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

Remember also that shortzies like to use low volume premarket (especially early premarket) to set their narrative. The concern over deliveries is absolute noise. Don’t let them psyche you out.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

In effect that means Tesla usually receives payment before payment is due for suppliers. Hence they have higher positive cash flow as they grow faster.

That is unprecedented! Several of us have searched for another instance of this phenomenon but have not found one. If I find another I will probably buy it.

I believe you are comparing only to manufacturing companies?

My friend has a bar. He sells 95+% of his alcohol before he has to pay for it. Granted, it took him a while to go from 10 to 30 days credit in that business.

Not in the US so not necessarily the same but there are lots of small businesses that can operate with 30 days credit and sells directly to consumers within days or a week or two at most.

I imagine a well run grocery store/chain would be able to do the same for much of what they sell.

But yeah, you need to sell directly to consumers and few if any large manufacturers in any type of business do that for the majority of their production.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I hope I am wrong. but considering the volatility in the market lately and the negativity surrounding the Optimus Robot expect a huge downward move tomorrow (25%?)

Jusr a little tip, stay off Twitter fro a while. It is a depressing cesspool over there at the moment.

You think the stock will go up tomorrow?

-25% seems a bit excessive. That would be if Tesla stopped production like Peloton PTON did because they had 6 months of excess inventory.

-5% pre-market for now seems in line with lower delivery rate due to logistics. If the delivery date time came back to within 2 weeks on the configurator and there was a sign of lower demand I would be worried in the long term but right now it doesn’t seem to be the problem.

However, the next challenge TSLA will face will be to grow its mass delivery capacity alongside its mass production capabilities.

 

[mongo]

However, the next challenge TSLA will face will be to grow its mass delivery capacity alongside its mass production capabilities.

That capability already exists. Tesla has repeatedly shown the ability to deliver a lot of cars in a short time period, that's what the wave was. Spreading out shipments means higher in-transit inventory at the end of the quarter, but allows higher, less lumpy, utilization of the delivery centers.
If they could deliver X cars in the third month, they can do at least 70% of X every month = 2.1 times the deliveries in a quarter.

Unless you meant delivery to the retail pickup points, in which case they have secured more ship capacity and China is now allowing EVs on rail. Plus, unwinding gives more flexibility to use existing shipping capacity.

 

[EVWatcher]

-25% seems a bit excessive. That would be if Tesla stopped production like Peloton PTON did because they had 6 months of excess inventory.

-5% pre-market for now seems in line with lower delivery rate due to logistics. If the delivery date time came back to within 2 weeks on the configurator and there was a sign of lower demand I would be worried in the long term but right now it doesn’t seem to be the problem.

However, the next challenge TSLA will face will be to grow its mass delivery capacity alongside its mass production capabilities.

If tesla demand dropped the mega pack factory would just shift into overdrive. It wouldn’t be great and I haven’t modeled it or anything but I feel like tesla is in a pretty crazy situation where it could adapt to a demand cliff and somehow end up making more money than it was before