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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Regarding tax exemptions for buybacks -- if the 1% tax goes into effect Jan 23... in order to avoid Tesla must announce and complete buyback by Dec 31st?
Also do share holders need to vote for the buy back ... if so better hurry up Tesla ;)
Shareholders do not need to vote.
 
The choice Tesla had was likely to pay more (just like paying 3X overtime for keeping factory open during recent holiday). But ya maybe the typhoon disrupted ship schedules(seems even China transport includes ships) and trucks and local businesses might have tried to haggle for higher prices ... make available logistics only at EOQ and try to get the most out of Tesla, knowing tesla modus operandi of trying to get the max number of vehicles delivered.
Paying more when you don't need to is actively reducing net income. Paying people 3x more while still maintaining a positive net margin is an add to net income. The right choice is to pay 3x more for more products to sell.
 
I wanted to give everyone an update on solar / energy. I am in a unique position where we got solar installed in 2020 and then proceeded to move 2 blocks to the other side of our neighborhood (needed more space) and get solar installed again. So I have seen first hand the improvements Tesla has made in ~2 years with the energy side of the business.

In the first house, we had 3 powerwall v1's installed. It took them an entire full day to do the install of the power walls and get everything setup (2 electricians). For the solar panels on the roof, we had 3 separate clusters installed totaling about ~42 panels. They were 320kw panels, cutting edge at the time. The team was a team of 4.

In the second house, we had 2 gen 2 powerwalls installed and it took them ~4 hours including waiting ~30 minutes for our utility provider to show up so they could open the box (exact same 2 electricians :) ). We had 60 410kw panels installed (bringing us 100% off the grind) installed in 2 days. With that being said, they started at 8 and slowed down around 1pm and just sort of messed around the rest of the day. They could have 100% finished the job in one day. The crew was double the size, but they were way more efficent and organized.

Additionally, our utility provider does not let us push energy back to the grid until they finish the interconnection process which takes about ~2 months between all the inspections. At the old house, Tesla showed us how to turn our system off (it still pushed back to the grid when it was on) so we had to be careful with it. The new system is 100% self contained and controlled by software, so the system has been on since they left. It automatically clips energy production when the powerwalls are full. They figured out how to stick it to the utility providers with software. Additionally, I had a quality assurance person reach out to me for the 2nd install to come by and double check all the work to make sure it was done up to their standards.

All in all, I dont see how this can be bullish. They are clearly ramping and optimizing the energy side of the house.
How many 1000's of Watts are those panels again, @strago13 ??
 
So how does Hurricane Ian in Florida account for 4 ships in transit to EU at EOQ from China, and early VIN assignments and transport to Australia. do tell? Butterfly effect? ;) What big picture piece of puzzle is missing?
Also, Austin run rate is like 1K/week ... so not sure how much of disruption to Florida really mattered ..

When viewing China production and deliveries - everyone needs to keep in mind that not only did China production nearly double over the past year, but that there are a LOT of currency fluctuations going on world wide.

Tesla has "demand pockets" throughout the world, and Shanghai is Tesla's proclaimed export hub. I trust in Tesla to allocate production as they see fit to fill these demand pockets in the order that maximizes margin and customer satisfaction.

And let's all not forget - we could have near zero China sales and there are still dozens of countries lined up waiting to buy the Model 3 and Y. All that output from Shanghai has plenty of pent-up demand.
 
Really happy to see some investor making big chunk of TsLA purchase at these prices. I feel less like a bag holder now.
Spend some time watching Rob Maurer on the Tesla Daily podcast if you haven't already. He is an outstanding voice of reason who does not get swayed by the intensely irrational moves the market makes on TSLA periodically. He has a great ability to see the forest thru the trees and stay focused on the big picture, and it is calming when the market makes stupid moves on TSLA like it has done lately.

Edit: He also stays well-reasoned and fairly unbiased and isn't someone who goes off the deep end like we see with some Youtubers.
 
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The choice Tesla had was likely to pay more (just like paying 3X overtime for keeping factory open during recent holiday). But ya maybe the typhoon disrupted ship schedules(seems even China transport includes ships) and trucks and local businesses might have tried to haggle for higher prices ... make available logistics only at EOQ and try to get the most out of Tesla, knowing tesla modus operandi of trying to get the max number of vehicles delivered.
The costs of shutting down and then restarting the whole factory were avoided by keeping it open avoided those costs, if indeed that would have been a significant expense.
 
So how does Hurricane Ian in Florida account for 4 ships in transit to EU at EOQ from China, and early VIN assignments and transport to Australia. do tell? Butterfly effect? ;)
Unsourced. I'm aware of 1 ship that was loading in Shanghai at the end of September (those are the only ones that won't be counted as 'delivered' in the CPCA Wholesale Rport.

Early VINs, or new production capacity just came online (accelerating the queue)? You should expect some lumpiness during period of fast growth and challenging logistics. Tesla is navigating these shoals extremely skillfully.

What big picture piece of puzzle is missing?
'Big picture'? You're time horizon appears to be 2 weeks (which technically is 9 days longer than the shortzes) :p

Also, Austin run rate is like 1K/week ... so not sure how much of disruption to Florida really mattered ..
Straw man! Florida cars have to transit Texas on their way from Fremont. If they we're planned for delivery in the last 72 hrs of the qtr, they were likely delayed (that's another reason to move beyond 'the wave').

Look I get it, you're despondent and you need to vent. Perhaps go for a run, lift some weights? Have a good meal, and get some sleep.

Everything is going to be alright.

Cheers!
 
It is that unsubstantiated exaltation that I deplore.

I've made this argument before to people who can't understand why there are so many cultish fanboys that worship Musk/Tesla:

They didn't just magically appear. People love the products and become fans. People see that the product aligns with the mission and become fans. People see someone advancing stagnant, century-old technology and become fans. And with such a huge fan base, you're going to get some people who behave badly, especially on platforms that encourage toxicity (like Twitter). And sure, some people will co-opt the term fan or fanboi into a pejorative because of that.

But when you look at the track record of TSLA (ignoring SpaceX completely for the moment), you see continuous improvement, and continuous struggle for excellence. Why then would you have an issue with people (on TMC no less) wanting to see Tesla's next product succeed? You deplore people who believe that Tesla's action of continuous improvement couldn't possibly lead to a great product at launch?

It was clear to me that getting Model Y to the masses was a way higher priority for the business than launching CT on time. I've seen no evidence that missing the announced launch date of CT indicates developmental problems. I love that they took their time with CT to refine it more, all the while ensuring a strong supply chain for batteries. TSLAQ loves to claim Musk breaks promises, when in reality, plans change, and I much prefer a company that can pivot quickly than one that can't dodge the iceberg.

Last thing: why do you have to wave around your large piece of TSLA pie to lend weight to your arguments?
I have a pretty good - not unassailable but pretty good - reckoning as to where I stand within the TMC Investor thread wrt number of shares controlled; it is likely in the top three and with a dead certainty in the top five.
 
Morgan Stanley out with a new note…..I guess they’re turned bear even though they have a price target at 350 😅.

Why do I say bear?

Because their new estimate for 2022 deliveries is 1.31 million. So they expect roughly 405k-410k deliveries for Q4. Only way Tesla does just 405k deliveries in Q4 is complete demand collapse.

If ya want an even bigger laugh, look at their EPS estimates for this year, 2023, and 2024 now