Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Oil recovering today, on "tight supplies". Nevermind the weekly US report indicated the exact opposite. I think this was a big part of the post-cpi hedge funder's plan. Once again they're executing a planned rally even tho the trigger event(a lower CPI) never happened.

We're in a pattern of pure manipulation in most corners of our markets. Looks to me like everyone will be getting away with this nonsense until Putin is neutralized and we see a clear and full end to covid disruptions. Maybe by the new year?

I'm starting to think Elon's prediction of moderate recession and massive deflation is gonna come true. We'll see how the global economy reacts over the next few years. I don't think it'll be that big of a deal. Nothing wrong with zero cost oil to fuel the transition.

US Oil volumes were only up because of the release from the SPR. Remove that number and they actually tightened. There was an article about this on oilprice.com if you want to dig into it:

Oil Falls After API Reports Large Crude Inventory Build | OilPrice.com

WTI crude held at $87 per barrel on Wednesday afternoon after the API reported a major build in crude inventories

oilprice.com

EDIT - inventories increased by 7.054 mil barrels, but the release from the SPR was 7.7 mil barrels, accounting for all of the build in inventory. Additionally, US production remained flat at 12.0 mb/d, 1.1 mb/d below levels at the start of the pandemic.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You need to put it in context. He was replying to a tweet that said if the Bernie types took all the money from all the richest people, it wouldn't even pay the interest on our debt for a year.

@unk45 kinda dodged this issue when I brought it up last month, but the U.S. Government doesn't pay the interest on its debt, either. The Federal Reserve bank forgives the interest, and make book by taxing charging interest to the rest of the U.S. namely any private individual or business who holds a loan (that's a heck of an exclusive franchise deal for the FED).

 

[Knightshade]

So we agree that, while it is common and potentially helpful, it is not required, and there is no "need" (meaning requirement) to announce it in advance?

10b-5 plan is handy but not required (nor is it ever). However, given earnings are in less than 7 days, it would be questionable to start buying back now.
https://www.skadden.com/-/media/Fil...rket-Disruptions/Rule_10b_18_Safe_Harbors.pdf

 

[mongo]

Elon has no love for shorts. As long as he use margin, his shares are available to shorts. I’d bet good money Elon closed all margin.

Depends on his setup. Could be an asset back loan, versus normal consumer brokerage situation (even then, possibly negotiable with higher rate).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, but Jul and Aug (at near zero) still resulted in a PAINFUL market response. This feels like we'll dust this off this off by end of day, but then tank for most of the month (again)

Two Words: D.C.A.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

US Oil volumes were only up because of the release from the SPR. Remove that number and they actually tightened. There was an article about this on oilprice.com if you want to dig into it:

Oil Falls After API Reports Large Crude Inventory Build | OilPrice.com

WTI crude held at $87 per barrel on Wednesday afternoon after the API reported a major build in crude inventories

oilprice.com

EDIT - inventories increased by 7.054 mil barrels, but the release from the SPR was 7.7 mil barrels, accounting for all of the build in inventory. Additionally, US production remained flat at 12.0 mb/d, 1.1 mb/d below levels at the start of the pandemic.

I'm seeing commercial crude build of 9.9Mb and a SPR release of 7.7Mb. To me that's a crude supply build of 2.2Mb.

And we continue to net export at a pace of 2+Mb/d of crude and refined products.

All this with domestic crude production still 13% below pre-pandemic peak.

Clearly some additional action needs to be taken, or at least threatened, to either knock down WTI pricing or increase production or more likely both.

 

[wipster]

Really low volume today, so far at least.

 

[petit_bateau]

I'm seeing commercial crude build of 9.9Mb and a SPR release of 7.7Mb. To me that's a crude supply build of 2.2Mb.

And we continue to net export at a pace of 2+Mb/d of crude and refined products.

All this with domestic crude production still 13% below pre-pandemic peak.

Clearly some additional action needs to be taken, or at least threatened, to either knock down WTI pricing or increase production or more likely both.

DUNCs are almost worked out. The price signal isn't high enough to promote much of an increase in drilling and fraccing , besides which Wall St hasn't forgotten the hangover from last time.

Number of drilled but uncompleted U.S. wells continues to decline from record in 2020

www.eia.gov

 

[generalenthu]

Really low volume today, so far at least.

you forgot the /s tag.. we are running about 40% higher than yesterdays volume.. though to put that in context, SPY and QQQ are more than 2x yesterdays volume.

 

[traxila]

Really low volume today, so far at least.

Puzzling that you would say that. QQQ looks like it will do twice the average. And TSLA I see it as already above average as per Yahoo:

 

[wipster]

you forgot the /s tag.. we are running about 40% higher than yesterdays volume.. though to put that in context, SPY and QQQ are more than 2x yesterdays volume.

Didn't compare to yesterday, my comment was on today. But thanks for the info my friend.

 

[ZachF]

My guess is that it was.


My guess is that it was always intended to be conceded in a deal with EU. But that bit was not said very loudly when preparing briefing packs for Congress etc.


Er, you do realise this is not just a website for USA exceptionalism don't you. Writing dumbass stuff into law doesn't make it any smarter, it simply gets the evidence to the courtroom faster and with your signature on it.

Let's be honest. This anti-competitive law is intended to keep legacy Ford/GM/Chrysler alive a little longer and to penalise China products whilst promoting onshoring, nearshoring, and reshoring. To the extent that it is legal under WTO rules that will only be because the USA has (or not) the ammunition to show that China is indulging in equally (or worse) anti-competitive behaviour. In the case of China that I can believe. But in the case of the EU when you look at the legal hoops all EU funding (and all EU member states) funding has to jump through so as to be signed off in advance as not being anticompetitive under WTO, then not much chance of US winning a case.

The more interesting case will be if Mexico and/or Canada take US to WTO. Normally they just suck it up, living next door to the local bully gets kind of tiring. But occasionally they hold their ground. We'll see.

Don't kid yourselves that just because WTO legal cases can drag on for 10+ years that action doesn't happen much faster. Countervailing tariffs can get slapped on almost immediately by the aggrieved party - so for example EU could slap 100% tariff on all luxury/prestige BEV which would of course directly hit Tesla S/X. But countervailing tariffs don't have to be in the same area - they could be for example on all large battery systems, or on whisky, or on beef.

The right thing for the USA to do is to make nice with the EU.

Make nice with the EU? Lol

I wrote out a large response, but it might have been a bit insensitive… simply put, the EU has benefited and continues to benefit far more from the US-EU relationship than the US does. Considerably more.

The biggest loser by far of the US turning more isolationist would be Europe (and Japan)… but that’s probably happening anyway.

And also lol at the US being a “bully” to Mexico and Canada… we’ve been such a bully that both countries feel safe enough to spend almost nothing on their militaries.

 

[insaneoctane]

I thought our beta was ~2, not 1/2? Or is it 1/2 on green days and 2 on red days?

EDIT: Ninjaed by @BornToFly a couple pages back!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Really low volume today, so far at least.

Sorry about that...my order for 4M shares did not execute at $200 /s

 

[FSDtester#1]

Make nice with the EU? Lol

I wrote out a large response, but it might have been a bit insensitive… simply put, the EU has benefited and continues to benefit far more from the US-EU relationship than the US does. Considerably more.

The biggest loser by far of the US turning more isolationist would be Europe (and Japan)… but that’s probably happening anyway.

And also lol at the US being a “bully” to Mexico and Canada… we’ve been such a bully that both countries feel safe enough to spend almost nothing on their militaries.

Yeah, Mexico and Canada... no offense to our Canadian and Mexican friends but in terms of Military, I am pretty sure our Salvation Army could handle them in any conflict.

 

[generalenthu]

Didn't compare to yesterday, my comment was on today. But thanks for the info my friend.

well, we are on track for a 100 million volume day, which would be 30% above average volume.

 

[bkp_duke]

I'm seeing commercial crude build of 9.9Mb and a SPR release of 7.7Mb. To me that's a crude supply build of 2.2Mb.

And we continue to net export at a pace of 2+Mb/d of crude and refined products.

All this with domestic crude production still 13% below pre-pandemic peak.

Clearly some additional action needs to be taken, or at least threatened, to either knock down WTI pricing or increase production or more likely both.

I have a friend in this industry (sadly). Producers do not want to ramp up drilling and the multi-year expenses associated with that. For better or worse, they have concerns about the current administration "pulling the rug out from under them when prices come back down". Don't shoot the messenger, that's just what I was told as to why they don't want to "drill more". Keystone pipeline is still very fresh in their minds and what they lost in terms of investment there. They are about at limits of what current wells can do without drilling more.

 

[saniflash]

Regarding the buyback discussion, I don't see how it promotes the mission, HOWEVER

• if Tesla has excess cash
• and Tesla mgmt considers the current price of TSLA to be ridiculously low, and thus a good investment (implying a risk-adjusted return higher than T-Bills) and/or a good inflation hedge for parking this excess cash;
• and, mind you, we're talking about the same mgmt that consider[ed|s] BTC a good investment;

then why not; plus,

• just because the company buys back shares doesn't mean it won't sell them again (right? they would become treasury shares that the company could sell again in the open market?)
• Tesla might even use these shares, and dump them tactically, to moderate the share price in case of exuberance/gamma squeeze (is that permissible and realistic, or are there filings and blackout periods required that would not make this feasible?) -- thus Elon would no longer "need" to moderate the stock himself when he thinks it's "too high imo" (*)

I'm leaning towards a buyback being announced.

(*) I'm aware that this specific quote was literal and referred to the stock split as we found out later; however I'm under the impression that Elon tends to make tweets when he thinks the price is actually too high to moderate it.

 

[elasalle]

FTFY.

No Charles is King

FTFU (I use U for "you" sometimes ...)

 

[printf42]

This was a popular TSLAQ talking point back in May 2020 during the 2nd SCE cuort csae. Elon likely had ~$500M in margin loans at the time. Since he has excercised options and has over $7B in hand ATM (likely much more), its not surprizing to hear those lusers try to revive that dead horse. Elon paid off ALL his margin loans long ago.

And that’s before he sold almost all his houses in CA for a fat profit, which was probably what those margin loans were used for in the first place.

Seriously Elon is gonna get margin called for few hundred millions of loans when he has billions of cash in hand?

Ones that rehash this point is not the brightest bunch, even in TSLAQ group.