Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

I find it interesting that Optimus will be joining S & X Plaids at the China International Import Expo next week. Unless the AI team was in dire need of a vacay (well, probably), seems odd to lug Optimus all the way to China unless you had something to show. I suppose it could also just be a way for Elon to impose a deadline for something (walking?).

EDIT: I would add that Optimus‘ physical presence at the expo appears to be an assumption.

 

[Rammstein]

Because shipping a million+ EVs a year when everyone else seems to struggle to ship 10s of thousands isn't enough?

The people who have their heads in the sand aren't going to pull them out because the semi starts shipping.

I think it might wake some people up.

 

[Beltsbear]

The nature of copying is that you are always making a copy of a product that was developed previously. China still can't match a Model 3 made in 2017 because it takes time to copy large, complex objects. When you copy a product you do not go through the learning experience of developing that product so you cannot develop the next generation of that product, you have to wait for the innovators to advance the technology. Tesla's primary product innovations are the production processes and these take even longer to copy and get to market. The ICE vehicle industry had become so stagnant that copying was a viable way to compete at scale. It will take many years for the EV industry to become that stagnant.

And lest anyone forget, the mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy and transport. By giving other manufacturers and investors something to copy, you are essentially succeeding at your primary mission. People who are worried about copying are either not on board with the mission or they have an exaggerated view of how far copying can get another company in such a dynamic industry.

While I love to cheerleed for Tesla, China has indeed made good copies of the Model 3. There are multiple cars with very similar interior and exterior made in China. I am sure they won't do as well in a crash, nor would I love the software. And to back your point some, it took until THIS YEAR for them to get there. But China has copied the 2017 Model 3.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Well I just took that picture so...

Spoiler: Best Advice I Got...

I go help someone else, random is fine. This takes the focus off myself for a moment, then I feel more human-kind.

Funny story... some older guy in Costa Rica walked up to our rental vehicle and said he just got out of the hospital. He was carrying his IV contraption under his shirt... or some medical thing. Maybe fake, didn't matter. So a hit him with a $20 and the next thing he did, 3 times with extreme conviction, he pointed both hands at us and then the sky. At first I didn't get it, until he kept doing it. Then I couldn't stop laughing plus I made his day. From that day on, I could do no wrong - I was perma-blessed.

 

[bkp_duke]

Volumes matter as well as percentages.

It is not a good look when USA behaves as a protectionist, though sadly not abnormal.

It's not just percentages and volumes. It's tit-for-tat. Protectionism is not a US-only trait. For decades the EU has protected their auto industry from outside competitors, the French their wine industry from California Napa Valley wines, the list goes on and on. Finding "who did it first" would be nearly impossible.

Point is - no one, not the US, not the EU, win in trade wars. Obama was spot on back in 2013 when he was pressing hard for a free-trade treaty with the EU. See the article I linked previously, would work some nice wonders on inflation right about now too.

 

[StealthP3D]

From the competition is coming department. Hive mind at reddit says they are running commercials just to stop people from buying EVs that are available today.

That's part of it but it's actually more of a direct marketing effort than that.

With EV's the next new thing, it's difficult for many to get excited about buying a new ICE car. These ads get consumers excited about something new, EV's, which gets them thinking about how much down payment they have and how much they can afford monthly. It gets consumers thinking about a new car, even if it is an EV. If they can get them into one of their showrooms ready for a new car, it's a real letdown when they find out how far off a new car is. So, it's a simple "switcharoo" to get them into a brand-new ICE car to satisfy their desire for a new car. They will cite figures on how high resale value have been and tell them the first batch of EV's will be quite expensive and the prices will likely fall as EV's become more ubiquitous (OK, the car salesman is not going to use the "ubiquitous" word, but you get the idea).

The manufacturers know their dealers don't have any EV's on the lot to sell the EV curious and will "do the right thing" and get them into an ICE car. One more ICE car before EV's are "ready".

Get the mark ready to buy and slip them into a shiny new ICE car while making them feel smart for not jumping on the EV early-adopter bandwagon too soon. The charging networks are still being built out, the EV's aren't even ready yet, and will be expensive and somewhat unproven. Tesla are perpetually over-priced, so do the 'sensible' thing and slip into this shiny new ICE car with proven reliability and cost efficiency. They are just using the thought of EV's to get people mentally ready to buy a new car. This will work, right up until it won't anymore.

 

[Drumheller]

Feeling a little disappointed with SP direction?

Go outside!View attachment 869507

Sounds good! What's your address?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nobody say anything!!!

 

[ThisStockGood]

Sounds good! What's your address?

No need. Check the SP. We’re fine

 

[StealthP3D]

While I love to cheerleed for Tesla, China has indeed made good copies of the Model 3. There are multiple cars with very similar interior and exterior made in China. I am sure they won't do as well in a crash, nor would I love the software. And to back your point some, it took until THIS YEAR for them to get there. But China has copied the 2017 Model 3.

That's what I said, China still cannot "match" the 2017 Model 3. I didn't say they can't copy it, obviously they can and have. That is literally what the mission is all about. It's just a question of how well they can copy it and how much they can sell it for. And we can see the answer to that.

Oh, and call it "cheerleading" at your own peril. Those who can't see what's going on will not place their bets as appropriately as those who can.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Nobody say anything!!!

We will be green by end of the day. I call 450.

 

[insaneoctane]

I don't think call/put walls and Elon tweets have any as much potency as the FOMC....

One catalyst would be if Tesla delivered atleast a dozen Semis in Dec. ...

I believe that I'm still in the minority here that think that the semi's GMs are going to be terrible. Even at volume, I think they will be low. It's not obvious to me that delivering semis should be a catalyst if the expected margins are poor? At LRIP the margins will be negative (typical), but when you're selling a vehicle that is 30% more expensive than a MS Plaid, but with 10x more kWh, it will always be much lower margin IMO.

	Kwh	$/kWh	Pack cost	Price	Pack$/price
Plaid	100	125	$12,500	$136,000	9.2%
Semi	1000	125	$125,000	$180,000	69.4%

I think the semi is more about the mission...

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Feeling a little disappointed with SP direction?

Go outside!

Looks quite nice outside at the moment.

 

[larmor]

I believe that I'm still in the minority here that think that the semi's GMs are going to be terrible. Even at volume, I think they will be low. It's not obvious to me that delivering semis should be a catalyst if the expected margins are poor? At LRIP the margins will be negative (typical), but when you're selling a vehicle that is 30% more expensive than a MS Plaid, but with 10x more kWh, it will always be much lower margin IMO.

	Kwh	$/kWh	Pack cost	Price	Pack$/price
Plaid	100	125	$12,500	$136,000	9.2%
Semi	1000	125	$125,000	$180,000	69.4%

I think the semi is more about the mission...

The semi price is presumably based on volume production, and early adoption costs tesla, but as volume of production increases, margins will come in line. May be that is why the cybertruck was delayed, d/t the cost of steel being higher than expected the past year...

 

[elasalle]

I believe that I'm still in the minority here that think that the semi's GMs are going to be terrible. Even at volume, I think they will be low. It's not obvious to me that delivering semis should be a catalyst if the expected margins are poor? At LRIP the margins will be negative (typical), but when you're selling a vehicle that is 30% more expensive than a MS Plaid, but with 10x more kWh, it will always be much lower margin IMO.

	Kwh	$/kWh	Pack cost	Price	Pack$/price
Plaid	100	125	$12,500	$136,000	9.2%
Semi	1000	125	$125,000	$180,000	69.4%

I think the semi is more about the mission...

I think Semi is going to come out with different pricing ...?? needs to keep up with inflation and IRA discounts

 

[StealthP3D]

I believe that I'm still in the minority here that think that the semi's GMs are going to be terrible. Even at volume, I think they will be low. It's not obvious to me that delivering semis should be a catalyst if the expected margins are poor? At LRIP the margins will be negative (typical), but when you're selling a vehicle that is 30% more expensive than a MS Plaid, but with 10x more kWh, it will always be much lower margin IMO.

	Kwh	$/kWh	Pack cost	Price	Pack$/price
Plaid	100	125	$12,500	$136,000	9.2%
Semi	1000	125	$125,000	$180,000	69.4%

I think the semi is more about the mission...

I think Tesla has a lot of room to raise the price of the Semi and still have it be super compelling to businesses. The Tesla Semi is a long-term initiative and I think it will ramp much more slowly than a consumer vehicle. Early versions will be made and sold in low numbers and at relatively low prices. As they refine the platform and work out the kinks, demand and prices will soar. They don't want the risk of manufacturing it in high volume until they can see the strengths and weaknesses as their customers deploy them in the field and adjust the specs, features and even the prices, based on early feedback and learnings.

It's important to remember, this is an entirely new market for them and it's completely different from selling consumer vehicles. The platform technology is relatively easy for Tesla, selling heavy transport trucks is a new business for them and requires a new business model that I'm sure they are developing as they go along.

 

[BabyBull]

I wrote up something from looking at a FB/META grumbling on twitter. This was meant to some of my friends who are not stock savvy. So, figured to get your views before sending to them.
Am I on the right track?

 

[JRP3]

Anybody know what's really going on with production?

I don't but I'd speculate they need to build a lot of them mostly by hand before they can figure out how to automate the production.

 

[Ogre]

I believe that I'm still in the minority here that think that the semi's GMs are going to be terrible. Even at volume, I think they will be low. It's not obvious to me that delivering semis should be a catalyst if the expected margins are poor? At LRIP the margins will be negative (typical), but when you're selling a vehicle that is 30% more expensive than a MS Plaid, but with 10x more kWh, it will always be much lower margin IMO.

	Kwh	$/kWh	Pack cost	Price	Pack$/price
Plaid	100	125	$12,500	$136,000	9.2%
Semi	1000	125	$125,000	$180,000	69.4%

I think the semi is more about the mission...

Perhaps with the 2170s they are going to be stuffing into it this year that's what the economics look like. But once they transition to Texas and are selling them with 4680s, the whole equation changes.

You need to add a row to that table for $70/ kWh cells. Likely even lower than that after manufacturing incentives from IRA. It's also likely the price will be much higher than $180k after the first few thousand shipments if the IRA incentives remain in place. IRA incentives may well contribute $45,000 per truck to Tesla's bottom line. Plus another $40k in incentives to the purchaser.

Impression I get is Tesla either has contractual agreements they need to meet or they are just super motivated to make their first customers happy. Pepsi has spent $500k just installing facilities to support this operation and don't have a single truck yet. Margin will be low or maybe negative on these first trucks. Expect profits only after they move production to Texas and scale up.

 

[ZeApelido]

Surprised no one has pointed out that the stock is

GREEN

GREEN

GREEN

I thought this was an investment forum.

Also a black cat just walked under the ladder I'm currently standing on.